Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Shut it down forever. Nobody cares.

Oh, and Swine flu killed more than 12,000 in the US... mostly kids. Thank God the schools were shut for the 2010/2011 school year or it probably would have been far worse.
not sure what you are saying. Swine flu as an example, school and complete societal shutdown probably would have reduced it's spread,but because it didn't happen,conclusions would be speculative.
California shutting down had documented success. World wide,insistent illustrations of what shut downs and a cooperative population can achieve. The U.S.is obviously unique. Getting bizarre,dangerous and false information from the federal leadership. Any details about the messages received from the top federal leader were wrong and have stay surprisingly consistently inaccurate.
Masks
social distancing
Mass gatherings
References to the US constitution for direct medical advice
We have decent estimations of infections,so sound science and proven positive techniques,that have been proven effective this year,in this Covid 19 pandemic have yet to be implemented.
Identify who is infected and who is not via widespread timely testing. And w those results take actions for both groups, with rapid isolation and treatment for those found positive for the virus. Repeat the process until the country as a whole has stability.
An admission of missteps is probably paramount for progress. Take any other nation big or small that has successfully kept the virus at a controllable level,two or three things become apparent immediately, masks,isolation and messaging.
As of this week,masks are not a norm nationwide and the top executive in the US government has stated that the virus will go away by itself.
So until we agree..and this is something that is more important than everything else..until the top leadership agree that we have a problem,and what that problem is called..there are multiple names, Covid-19 and novel coronavirus but any name combination that includes flu,influenza or some race based name like kung flu are off message,inaccurate and confusing to many in the public. For most worldwide,watching the US fight among each other about wearing masks and those strange arguments are still taking place within a select small Corona virus task force of the federal government.
so until we agree that we are combating one virus,w a common name,until we agree on a national approach for the declared war, and until a consistent message is given nationwide we will probably continue to find ourselves on or near square one.
It is my personal hope that our national strategy is NOT what has been stated by the top U.S.Executive..a vaccine. The basic premise of doing nothing coordinated but instead waiting for a vaccination doesn't look to be a sound solution.
 
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not sure what you are saying. Swine flu as an example, school and complete societal shutdown probably would have reduced it's spread,but because it didn't happen,conclusions would be speculative.
California shutting down had documented success. World wide,insistent illustrations of what shut downs and a cooperative population can achieve. The U.S.is obviously unique. Getting bizarre,dangerous and false information from the federal leadership. Any details about the messages received from the top federal leader were wrong and have stay surprisingly consistently inaccurate.
Masks
social distancing
Mass gatherings
References to the US constitution for direct medical advice
We have decent estimations of infections,so sound science and proven positive techniques,that have been proven effective this year,in this Covid 19 pandemic have yet to be implemented.
Identify who is infected and who is not via widespread timely testing. And w those results take actions for both groups, with rapid isolation and treatment for those found positive for the virus. Repeat the process until the country as a whole has stability.
An admission of missteps is probably paramount for progress. Take any other nation big or small that has successfully kept the virus at a controllable level,two or three things become apparent immediately, masks,isolation and messaging.
As of this week,masks are not a norm nationwide and the top executive in the US government has stated that the virus will go away by itself.
So until we agree..and this is something that is more important than everything else..until the top leadership agree that we have a problem,and what that problem is called..there are multiple names, Covid-19 and novel coronavirus but any name combination that includes flu,influenza or some race based name like kung flu are off message,inaccurate and confusing to many in the public. For most worldwide,watching the US fight among each other about wearing masks and those strange arguments are still taking place within a select small Corona virus task force of the federal government.
so until we agree that we are combating one virus,w a common name,until we agree on a national approach for the declared war, and until a consistent message is given nationwide we will probably continue to find ourselves on or near square one.
It is my personal hope that our national strategy is NOT what has been stated by the top U.S.Executive..a vaccine. The basic premise of doing nothing coordinated but instead waiting for a vaccination doesn't look to be a sound solution.

Other than to say this post is almost entirely political I will refrain from commenting.
 
12,000 in a full year vs 130,000 in four months (with schools closed and other businesses closed for ~2 months). You can see the difference right?
Sure.

From February 1, 2020 through June 17, 2020 there were a grand total of 26 COVID deaths of American kids from 1 -14 years of age. If you look at the next age band (15-24) you can add another 125 to the death count. In other words, the mortality rate for these groups are stunningly low.

CDC says there were approximately 480 kids (0-17 years) who died from influenza in the 2018-2019. 2017-2018 Season, 643 dead.

H1N1 kids (0-18) made up about 40% of the total number of cases in 2009/2010. The mortality rate for this group was a shade under 4%. (EDIT: This is wrong... should have been .4%) That is nothing like COVID.

And yet, the Country closes schools for a pandemic that has almost no effect on school age kids... but when there was a pandemic that was a threat, we did nothing like we are doing now.

To summarize: we don't shut down schools in bad influenza seasons. We don't shut down schools when global pandemics directly threaten the kids. But we do shut down the schools when a global pandemic poses extremely little risk to children... AND we can mitigate that risk even further by keeping kids with known comorbidity's from attending class.

So something else is going on here. What do you think it might be?
 
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Sure.

From February 1, 2020 through June 17, 2020 there were a grand total of 26 COVID deaths of American kids from 1 -14 years of age. If you look at the next age band (15-24) you can add another 125 to the death count. In other words, the mortality rate for these groups are stunningly low.

CDC says there were approximately 480 kids (0-17 years) who died from influenza in the 2018-2019. 2017-2018 Season, 643 dead.

H1N1 kids (0-18) made up about 40% of the total number of cases in 2009/2010. The mortality rate for this group was a shade under 4%. That is nothing like COVID.

And yet, the Country closes schools for a pandemic that has almost no effect on school age kids... but when there was a pandemic that was a threat, we did nothing like we are doing now.

To summarize: we don't shut down schools in bad influenza seasons. We don't shut down schools when global pandemics directly threaten the kids. But we do shut down the schools when a global pandemic poses extremely little risk to children... AND we can mitigate that risk even further by keeping kids with known comorbidity's from attending class.

So something else is going on here. What do you think it might be?
Schools do deal with serious flu, measles, chickenpox outbreaks with selective precautions and inform parents of risk to the kids. They even shut select schools down if need be.
What's going on is the seriously effective transmission rate. So the kids aren't dying; their family might be as well as someone else's family. Since the US doesn't have a program for contract tracing we have to rely on the local jurisdictions like the agencies in Michigan that have attributed 52 cases to a house party on July 2-3. One person...ONE has disclosed contact with 66 other young people.

Riding through our town yesterday I checked local crowd activity. Most all adults had on masks and many situations had people in close proximity. Almost none of the crowd that appeared under 20 had on masks. They made up at least 50% of the folks on the sidewalks. It's frat parties, Summer beach gatherings and all of the customary events young people attend every warm period that relate to Wash State's uptick in caseload and, wait for it: deaths.
On a productive note my grandsons are at a Summer camp in Idaho. Every camper is tested prior to being dropped off by parents. Their temperature is monitored twice a day and they are assigned a small group of five total kids for interaction with a single, direct counselor. The kidpods can play with their group and they have masks if there are circumstances that dictate closer movement. Maybe this is a manageable manner for school functions but possibly too complex for many school districts.
Do you think that is what is going on or what should be?
 
So the kids aren't dying; their family might be as well as someone else's family.
Same is true with flu and H1N1.

Riding through our town yesterday I checked local crowd activity. Most all adults had on masks and many situations had people in close proximity. Almost none of the crowd that appeared under 20 had on masks. They made up at least 50% of the folks on the sidewalks. It's frat parties, Summer beach gatherings and all of the customary events young people attend
I can't see a single school district anywhere in the Nation allowing this type of behavior if/when they open.

Do you think that is what is going on or what should be?
I don't know for a fact but my guess would be that schools should and would be far more stringent than what you are describing.
 
H1N1 kids (0-18) made up about 40% of the total number of cases in 2009/2010. The mortality rate for this group was a shade under 4%. That is nothing like COVID.

And yet, the Country closes schools for a pandemic that has almost no effect on school age kids... but when there was a pandemic that was a threat, we did nothing like we are doing now.
Let's think about this claim for a second. How does this number coexist with the fact that ~12,000 people died in total? The answer is that it doesn't. I don't know where you pulled that stat from, but it is not remotely accurate. Not even for Spanish flu, and swine flu was not in the same zip code as Spanish flu. In general, flu is the most deadly for the very young and very old. The high risk group is <5 years old, so lumping all people under 18 together is a bit misleading when talking about school age children. This leads to the next point, in that swine flu was not a threat to school age kids. At least not appreciably more than COVID-19. What was a cause for the majority of school age kids who did die?
Twenty-eight (78%) of the 36 children whose deaths were associated with 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus infection were in at least one of two groups previously found to be at increased risk for complications from seasonal influenza: children aged <5 years and those with a high-risk chronic medical condition (1--3).
Does the latter sound like a certain virus making news recently? It is true that past experiences with flu may have biased people into thinking that schools would automatically be breeding grounds for COVID-19 spread like they are for flu, particularly student --> teacher. That is still a question mark. But there is enough uncertainty to err on the side of caution in places where the outbreaks are not well controlled. You are asking teachers to be guinea pigs, so mitigation strategies are the bare minimum response here.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm5834a1.htm
As you know and understand a lot more about these things than I do I'll ask this question. Will a combination of a vaccine (or multiple vaccines) plus a treatment (or multiples) that can be used for people before they need to go to the hospital get us back to some semblance of normal? Glad you are seeing good things with the vaccine candidates and I'm sure you understand some of it more than most of us do. I know going to a phase 3 trail is a good thing and means there are positive indications. Would you think it would be a good idea for my husband to try to get into one of these vaccine trials if it's possible. I ask because he not only works at a hospital, but also has health issues which include both allergies to multiple things plus Rheumatoid Arthritis, or should he wait for something to get an approval?
I have become increasingly bullish about the potential effectiveness of these particular vaccines. But I don't think they will be as effective as the measles vaccine, so doubt that it alone will revert us back to normal. But, I do have faith on the vaccine along with new therapies making COVID-19 a more manageable illness, which should alleviate a lot of the concern. It will take time though.

I can't really offer any medical advice. I did try to get into a phase 1 trial here, but it was popular and it filled up before I could get in. If a person ends up in a trial, and a vaccine of a different type gets approved, there shouldn't be any hindrance to getting the approved vaccine in addition to the trial one at a later time point. My rationale was that it likely wouldn't hurt, but that is most definitely a YMMV issue...
 
I have become increasingly bullish about the potential effectiveness of these particular vaccines. But I don't think they will be as effective as the measles vaccine, so doubt that it alone will revert us back to normal. But, I do have faith on the vaccine along with new therapies making COVID-19 a more manageable illness, which should alleviate a lot of the concern. It will take time though.

I can't really offer any medical advice. I did try to get into a phase 1 trial here, but it was popular and it filled up before I could get in. If a person ends up in a trial, and a vaccine of a different type gets approved, there shouldn't be any hindrance to getting the approved vaccine in addition to the trial one at a later time point. My rationale was that it likely wouldn't hurt, but that is most definitely a YMMV issue...
Thanks. IMO, if these vaccines are more effective than the flu vaccine it should help a lot. Also if it works like the flu vaccine where it reduces severity of the disease I would think that would help as well. I think that's what Regeneron (and the other company) working on the antibody treatments and testing those as short term preventatives.

I'm of the opinion that if I could get into a phase 3 trial of either a preventative or vaccine I'd do it. I don't typically have bad side effective to most things.
 
Sure.

From February 1, 2020 through June 17, 2020 there were a grand total of 26 COVID deaths of American kids from 1 -14 years of age. If you look at the next age band (15-24) you can add another 125 to the death count. In other words, the mortality rate for these groups are stunningly low.

CDC says there were approximately 480 kids (0-17 years) who died from influenza in the 2018-2019. 2017-2018 Season, 643 dead.

H1N1 kids (0-18) made up about 40% of the total number of cases in 2009/2010. The mortality rate for this group was a shade under 4%. (EDIT: This is wrong... should have been .4%) That is nothing like COVID.

And yet, the Country closes schools for a pandemic that has almost no effect on school age kids... but when there was a pandemic that was a threat, we did nothing like we are doing now.

To summarize: we don't shut down schools in bad influenza seasons. We don't shut down schools when global pandemics directly threaten the kids. But we do shut down the schools when a global pandemic poses extremely little risk to children... AND we can mitigate that risk even further by keeping kids with known comorbidity's from attending class.

So something else is going on here. What do you think it might be?
WHAT THE *** PART OF THEY AREN'T IN SCHOOL IS SO *** HARD FOR YOU TO GRASP?
 
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The answer is that it doesn't.
Sorry, you are right. I missed a decimal point. I apologize for that. Depending on age band it was 3.91 to 12.0 times that of average influenza. I'll look and find the source.

so lumping all people under 18 together is a bit misleading when talking about school age children.
I found it very difficult to come by 'only' age bands from 5-18 when looking at available data that I was able to find. In no way was I intending to mislead... and btw, this cuts both ways. With COVID, the older one is the higher the mort rate.... so that too doesn't strictly apply to "school age" kids.

in that swine flu was not a threat to school age kids.
At this point it's pretty clear the mortality rate is higher for H1N1. Granted, the R0 of COVID appears to be at least multiples of H1N1 so it's hard to know at this point which might prove to be more deadly.

The point is we didn't shut down schools for H1N1. So I'll ask you, why not? What's different now?
 
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USA kids have been out of school so they have not been exposed to each other 500 at a time, therefore we have zero data on what cold happen when they are. The rhetoric of 'the data doesn't point to kids contracting and transmitting C19' is true because there is no data. Using Iceland and Norway for data models is beyond silly. The odds of contracting C19 are much higher now than ever so this isn't a good time to experiment with lives.
 
WHAT THE * PART OF THEY AREN'T IN SCHOOL IS SO * HARD FOR YOU TO GRASP?
Oh. So being in school will cause the mortality rates in kids to do what, exactly? Somehow, other parts of the world are figuring it out. Not us though.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/schools-reopening-coronavirus/2020/07/10/865fb3e6-c122-11ea-8908-68a2b9eae9e0_story.html



Full disclosure: I don't have a dog in this fight and at this point don't give a crap if kids ever go back to school. For the balance of my life it will not effect me one way or the other.

I do find it odd they will not be going back though. I don't think the data supports the behavior.
 
USA kids have been out of school so they have not been exposed to each other 500 at a time, therefore we have zero data on what cold happen when they are. The rhetoric of 'the data doesn't point to kids contracting and transmitting C19' is true because there is no data. Using Iceland and Norway for data models is beyond silly. The odds of contracting C19 are much higher now than ever so this isn't a good time to experiment with lives.
Maybe I am missing something. Kids are members of society. Kids are subject to the contagion whether in school or not.

In California, kids under 18 make up about 22% of the population. They account for more than 8% of COVID cases in this State.

Not a single death from this group through July 13, 2020. Not one.

So there's data. You just don't believe it.
 
Oh. So being in school will cause the mortality rates in kids to do what, exactly? Somehow, other parts of the world are figuring it out. Not us though.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/schools-reopening-coronavirus/2020/07/10/865fb3e6-c122-11ea-8908-68a2b9eae9e0_story.html



Full disclosure: I don't have a dog in this fight and at this point don't give a crap if kids ever go back to school. For the balance of my life it will not effect me one way or the other.

I do find it odd they will not be going back though. I don't think the data supports the behavior.
THERE IS NO *** DATA!

IT DOESN'T MATTER IF OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD HAVE FIGURED IT OUT THE USA HASN'T FIGURED OUT C19, LET ALONE MOVING FORWARD.

OTHER PARTS OF THE WORLD THAT OPENED SCHOOLS HAVE ALREADY CLOSED THEM AGAIN.

IT DOESN'T MATTER HOW WE REACTED TO H1N1! IR *** RELEVANT!
 
Maybe I am missing something. Kids are members of society. Kids are subject to the contagion whether in school or not.

In California, kids under 18 make up about 22% of the population. They account for more than 8% of COVID cases in this State.

Not a single death from this group through July 13, 2020. Not one.

So there's data. You just don't believe it.
You are correct, you are missing everything.
 
Moderna released full results for their phase 1 data on their vaccine:

Moderna posted a listing on clinicaltrials.gov, a government registry, that says it will start a Phase 3 study in 30,000 patients on July 27.

It looks like the researchers are measuring antibodies at the end of 60 days. Maybe sometime in October/November the efficacy might be known.
 
If 500 kids are put together in a school not only does that expose them to 499 other kids, it exposes them to siblings (at other schools), parents, extended family. With the MCJCLDS families here that could easily equal 10x. So just for fun math at some schools that could be 2,500+1000=3500 exposures. That's probably a few more than they get in the back yard neighborhood play group. That obviously doesn't count each exposure from parent/extended family work places. It also doesn't count the adults who work in the school and have kids at other schools and spouses at other jobs. That's the main reason why schools are frequently referred to as petri dishes.

Why would we assume that C19 won't spread in schools? Every (most) other respiratory disease does.

I'm going to stand by my assertion that risking getting kids really sick (lasting heart/lung issues, neurological issues...) is too big of a risk especially when death is also on the risk sheet. I would rather look back at delayed learning, and emotional stress than deaths.
 
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Protect the elderly (over 60) and most vulnerable e.g. pre existing health conditions, but let the rest of us get on with our work and lives. It is the only way as waiting for a vaccine to be widespread is simply too long. How does another great depression sound? How would an economic global depression be for health (physical and mental) ?

In Australia there has been just 3 deaths attributed to COVID-19 under the age of 60 compared to 105 deaths of people over 60. According to the Worldometer site, as I write there are 2,307 currently Infected patients in Australia of which just 28 (1%) are listed as serious. Of that 28, nearly all are over 70.

In relation to children, what proportion of kids who have caught C19 are ending up with lasting heart/lung issues or neurological issues? Considering how many C-19 cases are listed as serious, I suggest it is a minute number?
 
Other than to say this post is almost entirely political I will refrain from commenting.
You began that dialogue by saying, shut it all down. That is a political decision. Nothing wrong at all with that comment, IMO. But it does demand a response that involves politics. In fact, the entire discussion of school opening, which is obviously one of the biggest issues associated with the pandemic right now, involves politics.

the Country closes schools for a pandemic that has almost no effect on school age kids.
If the kids lived in a vacuum, with no interaction with adults, I might be more sympathetic to this view.

So something else is going on here. What do you think it might be?
Well, the people who are arguing against opening schools aren't motivated by the chance of getting more votes, that's for sure. It's an extremely unpopular position--everyone wants the schools to open, beginning with the kids and their parents. Maybe what's going on is that some people are saying let's at least do everything possible to make sure a school is as safe as possible before opening it. Such as creating very specific steps that schools can follow. Also, such as reducing the spread of the virus in the surrounding community, to levels below 100x those levels present in other nations that have opened schools.

I think opening schools is a reasonable possibility in areas where it can be shown that the incidence of the virus is fairly low, and where protective measures such as masks, social distancing, and putting kids in small pods or groups can be done. I don't think just waving your hands and saying open the schools, and let the chips fall where they may, is a winning strategy. This is the kind of lunacy we get:

https://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/07/13/oc-school-board-classes-fall/

Protect the elderly (over 60) and most vulnerable e.g. pre existing health conditions,but let the rest of us get on with our work and lives.
How do you propose to protect people over 60 (many of whom work, btw), and people with pre-existing conditions (which > 40% of adults have in the U.S., btw), when in the U.S. we have prima facie evidence that letting the rest get on with their work and lives means spiking of cases, putting the elderly at major risk unless they stay locked down forever? How is it safe for anyone in the high risk groups to leave their homes when the virus is spreading rapidly in their communities?

If your plan is just to put us old folks under house arrest for the rest of our lives, maybe allowed to take our chances at the grocery store at 5 AM, at least say so honestly.

Here's a good article on the latest views on how the virus is transmitted:

https://sciencebasedmedicine.org/is-covid-19-transmitted-by-airborne-aerosols/?fbclid=IwAR2C_ZoUnaIOYXQinL54iFMJAUm7CrkZIR9hI2Mw9Ncj35U7B6jkvjMbxbc

Have to add this: I was debating someone on another forum, who posted a chart from the Health and Human Services of Texas. The idea was to show that flu was much worse than C19. One thing that didn't make sense to me was the number of flu deaths reported for the state. Now it turns out the chart was fake, HHS has denied that it put it out.
 
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Protect the elderly (over 60) and most vulnerable e.g. pre existing health conditions, but let the rest of us get on with our work and lives. It is the only way as waiting for a vaccine to be widespread is simply too long. How does another great depression sound? How would an economic global depression be for health (physical and mental) ?

In Australia there has been just 3 deaths attributed to COVID-19 under the age of 60 compared to 105 deaths of people over 60. According to the Worldometer site, as I write there are 2,307 currently Infected patients in Australia of which just 28 (1%) are listed as serious. Of that 28, nearly all are over 70.

In relation to children, what proportion of kids who have caught C19 are ending up with lasting heart/lung issues or neurological issues? Considering how many C-19 cases are listed as serious, I suggest it is a minute number?
My contention is that we don't have this data because kids have been out of school since mid/late March. IMO it isn't worth the risk to find out how many of them end up with lasting illness or death.

Plus, you are comparing Australia numbers to USA numbers. Just Idaho (population 1.8 mil) alone has more cases than Australia (25 mil) and the same number of deaths. If I lived there I might have a different view.
 
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But it does demand a response that involves politics.
My comment wasn’t political in the least... and no it doesn’t.

If the kids lived in a vacuum, with no interaction with adults, I might be more sympathetic to this view
There is risk in everyday life for every person living today. You can’t make it go away no matter how hard you try. That COVID effects your age group to a greater degree than theirs isn’t going to change anytime soon.

Well, the people who are arguing against opening schools aren't motivated by the chance of getting more votes, that's for sure.
Never let a crisis go to waste.

LA teachers union wants more money by defunding the police, calls for medicare for all.

https://nypost.com/2020/07/13/la-teachers-union-wants-more-money-by-defunding-the-police/



Rush to reopen schools worries a majority of voters
A combined 54 percent of Americans said they are somewhat uncomfortable or very uncomfortable with reopening K-12 schools this fall.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/24/rush-to-reopen-schools-worries-voters-337539

So, I think we can disagree on this.
 

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