Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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More interesting news with Sweden:


Fascinating interview with Dr. Tengell:


Tengell believes lockdown is "using a hammer to kill a fly."

He described the rush to lock down in Europe & the U.S. as "it was as if the world had gone mad."

He states immunity is at least part responsible for the sharp recent drop in cases.
 
The ulterior motive is to prevent herd immunity - why else would Fauci want masks, social distancing, no large gatherings, etc.? We're never going to achieve any semblance of herd immunity maintaining these mitigation factors - do you think the virus is just going to leave anyday now never to return? Look at all the spikes in cases right now in Spain, France, Germany, etc., that is causing all kinds of panic & hysteria by the MSM. Their heads of states are talking lockdowns again! (Spain even undertook a very draconian China-style lockdown for several weeks last spring).

And if the vaccine proves to be unsafe or ineffective, or needs years of further development to be safe & efficacious...then what? Keep all these protocols in place for years? Decades? Forever? The virus isn't going anywhere - we're going have to learn to live with it and not hide from it. Herd immunity is a viable possibility based on Sweden (see the link I posted with the fascinating interview of Dr. Tengell).

Again, on Stephens - they retracted the statement that he died from complications of Covid and consequently changed his obituary. So, at this point he didn't die from Covid and maybe if the family wants to, they'll release the cause of death.

How do you know there are more false negatives than false positives? If you're "asymptomatic" does it really matter if you're negative or positive (other than more tests create more case numbers which allows governors & heads of states to continue with business restrictions, limited gatherings, mask mandates, etc.). You can be negative one day, positive the next day, negative the day after that, and so on...crazy.

Even the Scottish Health Chief thinks the test is "rubbish:"


"SCOTTISH Government health chief Jason Leitch admitted the tests used to detect Covid cases are “a bit rubbish”, it emerged today."
"The national clinical director suggested the “antigen” tests - the results from which are driving ministers’ policy - are not fully reliable as they can give positive results to people who are not infectious."
There is little historical evidence that we can achieve herd immunity by natural infection alone. Pathogens just don't generally infect themselves out of existence. And the human cost to trying would be losses in the millions of lives just in the USA. That is what mass testing is trying to stop. The only viable path to herd immunity IMO is how we have herd immunity for polio and measles, through vaccination campaigns.

It may have been a rumor, but it is quite possible he died from COVID complications. Just like Robert Trump.

The current outbreaks in Europe and Israel are ironclad proof that they were nowhere close to herd immunity and neither is Sweden IMO. Speaking of Spain, I thought this was interesting comparison to NYC with a possible key difference being the policy around bars and restaurants. A caveat is that NYC probably has a higher baseline of prior exposure/ partial immunity from the first wave.

View: https://twitter.com/_MiguelHernan/status/1304424019450630144


You are missing the key point. You can be asymptomatic initially early on and be contagious. You could test positive and develop symptoms the next day or two. That is the type of person that are trying to be identified so the transmission chain can be broken before that person infects others. Below is a paper about false negatives. No test is perfect. The PCR test is probably the most reliable. Like with the Antibody serology tests, it takes a little longer to develop a really good antigen test. Each generation of test will improve on the last.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2015897#:~:text=In days 1 through 7,at least one respiratory specimen.
 
I chew it over and over.
lying is not leadership.
Not telling people the truth about a life or death health emergency is wrong.
lying is wrong.
Americans are using different techniques \strategy for the Covid-19 outbreak. The numbers are clear. I knew watching Presidential press conference coverage objectively is difficult for everyone no matter what your opinion. The one posted, Trump and all others not wearing masks,President demanding that reporters remove masks,again draw your own conclusions.
Chris I see your passion and patriotism in your posts,and if I don't misunderstand,misread, you are over the top that the harm,sometimes death caused by the economic losses from the pandemic doesn't get enough recognition. I agree 10000%.
Drinking,drugs or offing yourself are all horrible. More needs to be done and massive money needs to be spent on correcting problems before, during and after. A loss on levels that are unseen. Yes unemployment,drugs,drinking and suicide effect kids,families.
The messaging that @835,000 more families applied for unemployment benefits and that is good news doesn't square w reality.
The numbers of people in need are massive,staggering. Cheerleading is not real,it's wrong and it won't help people( the majority). Realism,truth and solutions are needed now more than ever. No more hype,no half truth.
One issue about health care,food and housing not included in rallies is what is happening nationwide w benefit cuts that took effect,@6 weeks ago.
So our cycle,the American cycle keeps,repeating..can't have economy without health,blunt and simple.
Look at the millions if not billions wasted on college in these last few weeks. Staff readying everything,cleaning everything,testing set ups,modifying campuses, local businesses anticipating student spending,..and because of a lack of a deep plan, students returned to only restart temporally and now in person classes cancelled again. What are the costs? Not only cash and lines of credit,but emotionally?
The testing that Trump promised is needed.
The economic relief that Trump promised and assured Americans would be there is needed.
When Trump said things are under control, that maybe true in his mind and the heads of his supporters. The death count,unemployment,uncertainty,fear and dozens of other things effecting non believers needs to be addressed.
This has been a problem for almost four years,only governing half the country,ignoring half. That style was not life or death because of some economic stability. With the pandemic,you just can't ignore half the population,many of them sick,dying and suffering,going through hell without having the virus themselves.
pretending is not working.
The country and its citizens are not fine.
We can't continue to open and close and open and close again.
We need national testing,national containment and quarantine strategy.
We need a national contact tracing campaign.
We just need to be real

 
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Chris Gadsden

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The ulterior motive is to prevent herd immunity
This

Look at all the spikes in cases right now in Spain, France, Germany, etc., that is causing all kinds of panic & hysteria by the MSM. Their heads of states are talking lockdowns again!
and this.

And if the vaccine proves to be unsafe or ineffective, or needs years of further development to be safe & efficacious...then what? Keep all these protocols in place for years? Decades? Forever?
and this
 

Chris Gadsden

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Go live your life as if there is nothing more you can do to save us, please.
I'll go ahead and post here as I please. Thanks.


1). Never let a crisis go to waste.

The study has several limitations due to the type of data used, namely, using city-wide or multi-city trends to generalize over a whole population. Secondly, they cannot predict if the premature deaths said to have been avoided would have happened in the period covered. The study also does not account for other exposures like smoke from indoor solid fuel stoves.
Despite this, the researchers conclude that the reduction of air pollution by reducing the emissions related to regular business activities is associated with significant potential for improvements in health outcomes. The longer total lockdown duration in most countries and the interplay between air pollution and COVID-19 deaths is yet to be known, and these estimates may, therefore, be at the lower limits of the real benefits.
Economic activity cannot, obviously, be suspended indefinitely, yet should the world return to its “business as usual” patterns that clearly drives air pollution and related deaths? While the lockdowns were intended to minimize the number of deaths from COVID-19, the resulting avoidance of premature deaths due to air pollution has been a side benefit. They conclude, “Finding economically and socially sustainable alternatives to fossil fuel-based transport and industry are another means of reaching the pollutant declines we have observed during the global response to COVID-19.”


Hmmmm.


To be able to weigh the value of a life against the economic costs of forgone output from lost jobs and business closures, requires placing a dollar value on one person’s life. This number is called the value of a statistical life. In Australia, the Government generally uses a value of A$4.9 million. The United States uses a value of US$10 million.

What are the benefits of the shutdown? This is the value of lives saved plus any indirect economic or health benefits. Lives saved are those excess lives that would be lost if government relied on a strategy that allowed enough people to get infected to result in so-called herd immunity.
How many extra lives would be lost under this second strategy?
To answer this, we need assumptions about the virus.
The lives lost if we let it rip
The initial reproduction rate of the virus, R0, was thought to be about 2.5. This means that every 2 people infected were likely to infect another 5; producing an average infection rate per person of 2.5.
Herd immunity for COVID-19 is estimated to require roughly 60% of the population be infected before the curve begins to flatten and the peak infections fall.

This happens when the reproduction rate, R0, falls below one. Because of subsequent new infections, the total number infected over the course of the pandemic is closer to 90%.
Given a population of 25 million people and assuming a fatality rate of 1%, this would produce 225,000 deaths.
An assumption of a 1% fatality rate is low from the perspective of those making decisions at the onset of the pandemic, at a time when crucial and reliable data were missing.
Those lives are valued at $1.1 trillion
Converting those fatalities to dollars using the Australian value of a statistical life of A$4.9 million per life yields a cost of A$1.1 trillion.
In rough terms, that’s the amount we have gained by shutting down the economy, provided deaths do not skyrocket when lockdown measures are relaxed and borders re-open.
It is about three fifths of one year’s gross domestic product, which is about A$1.9 trillion.
What are the costs of the shutdown?
These are the direct economic costs from reduced economic activity plus the indirect social, medical, and economic costs, all measured in terms of national income.
A starting point is to take the lost income that occurs from the recession that has probably already begun.
What will the shutdown cost?
Let’s assume that the downturn results in a 10% drop in gross domestic product over 2020 and 2021 – about $180 billion – consistent with IMF forecasts of a fall in GDP of 6.7% in 2020 and a sharp rebound of 6.1% growth in 2021, and comparable to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s forecasts in the latest Statement on Monetary Policy.
Comparing this cost from shutting down – about $180 billion – to the benefit of $1,103 billion – makes the case for shutdown clear.




Sooooooo... it's actually in our best interest to lockdown the economy. On a number of fronts. So, yeah, there's no going back people. Our leaders are broadcasting this.

“We’re not going back to normal," said Newsom, who gave Tuesday's press briefing from the site of a Sacramento business called Display California. "It’s a new normal with adaptations and modifications, until we get to immunity and a vaccine.”
 
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Chris Gadsden

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lying is not leadership.
Every.Single.Leader. Lies. Every one. Particularly in politics, they all lie, they always have and they always will.

Americans are using different techniques \strategy for the Covid-19 outbreak.
Different than the CCP? Yes. Have you seen the new infection numbers in Spain, France, UK, Italy, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Netherlands, Switzerland, Croatia, Greece, Norway, Denmark, Finland?

To make it less complicated, compare the shape of the new infection graph for these Countries, compare them to the US, then compare them to the globe. Let me know what you discover.

Chris I see your passion and patriotism in your posts,and if I don't misunderstand,misread, you are over the top that the harm,sometimes death caused by the economic losses from the pandemic doesn't get enough recognition. I agree 10000%.
Drinking,drugs or offing yourself are all horrible. More needs to be done and massive money needs to be spent on correcting problems before, during and after. A loss on levels that are unseen. Yes unemployment,drugs,drinking and suicide effect kids,families.
Yes they do.

The testing that Trump promised is needed.
Yep. The Admin, Country was caught flat-footed. In fairness, this is not 100% this admin's fault... but they are delivering on some things (ventilators) and failing on others.

The economic relief that Trump promised and assured Americans would be there is needed.
The EO's have gone about as far as they can. It's time for Congress to act. Unfortunately it's an election year and the game of chicken being played is obvious.

This has been a problem for almost four years,only governing half the country,ignoring half.
This goes back far longer than four years.

With the pandemic,you just can't ignore half the population,many of them sick,dying and suffering,going through hell without having the virus themselves.
pretending is not working.
The country and its citizens are not fine.
We can't continue to open and close and open and close again.
We need national testing,national containment and quarantine strategy.
We need a national contact tracing campaign.
We just need to be real
Mostly agree. But you need to realize this Country has a Constitution that describes unalienable rights. This is something completely lost by half of the voting public. The art of persuasion has been completely abandoned by half of the voting population. Asking & persuading is quite different than telling, ordering, shaming and vilifying.
 
Every.Single.Leader. Lies. Every one. Particularly in politics, they all lie, they always have and they always will.

Yep. The Admin, Country was caught flat-footed. In fairness, this is not 100% this admin's fault... but they are delivering on some things (ventilators) and failing on others.



Mostly agree. But you need to realize this Country has a Constitution that describes unalienable rights. This is something completely lost by half of the voting public. The art of persuasion has been completely abandoned by half of the voting population. Asking & persuading is quite different than telling, ordering, shaming and vilifying.
The Bold part was where most of our problems began. This administration in a fit of anti-predecessor cleansing eliminated all elements of CDC cooperation with a particular foreign government because they were appointed by prior administrations. Did they replace them with any other experts. No. F*ck no. Then, when facing a the planning shortfall wasted much valuable time blaming people that hadn't been in authority for years. That was the most fundamental failure and tipping point for the US. Glad you can admit that.
And the art of persuasion? It's been replaced by constant lying, threats and attempts to circumvent Constitutional laws including inalienable rights like voting. Even our AG is echoing the most basic lies told by this WH. There are no places to hide if this continues; we'll all go down the same way when you run afoul of the despot.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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The Bold part was where most of our problems began. This administration in a fit of anti-predecessor cleansing eliminated all elements of CDC cooperation with a particular foreign government because they were appointed by prior administrations. Did they replace them with any other experts. No. F*ck no. Then, when facing a the planning shortfall wasted much valuable time blaming people that hadn't been in authority for years. That was the most fundamental failure and tipping point for the US. Glad you can admit that.
And the art of persuasion? It's been replaced by constant lying, threats and attempts to circumvent Constitutional laws including inalienable rights like voting. Even our AG is echoing the most basic lies told by this WH. There are no places to hide if this continues; we'll all go down the same way when you run afoul of the despot.
To be clear you are part of the 50% of the voting public I was referring to previously.
 
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This is really troubling. We all laughed about the sharpie and the hurricane, but interfering with the work of career scientists is deplorable. Hacks like Alexander need to be shown the door.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/tomscocca/status/1304634573700182016

Criminal!
 
To be clear you are part of the 50% of the voting public I was referring to previously.
Chris-I'm part of the more than 50% of voters that didn't elect the current regime. By regime, I mean specifically to compare it to other 3rd World despotic and self serving political/criminal enterprises. The constant seeking of scapegoats for all shortcomings, real and "imagined" in the US has pre-occupied the Executive branch since the election.
That has left no time for meaningful government measures unless you consider the yard sale of US public property access in exchange for political favors, compromise of real environmental protection and the daily misinformation of the US public as "progress". You say "all politicians lie...." as though that equivocation justifies how manipulated DT supporters are and how manipulated this administration would like the rest of us to be.
Just remind yourself how many faithful associates this WH has discarded, defamed and destroyed before you drink all the Koolaid.
 
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Chris-I'm part of the more than 50% of voters that didn't elect the current regime. By regime, I mean specifically to compare it to other 3rd World despotic and self serving political/criminal enterprises. The constant seeking of scapegoats for all shortcomings, real and "imagined" in the US has pre-occupied the Executive branch since the election.
That has left no time for meaningful government measures unless you consider the yard sale of US public property access in exchange for political favors, compromise of real environmental protection and the daily misinformation of the US public as "progress". You say "all politicians lie...." as though that equivocation justifies how manipulated DT supporters are and how manipulated this administration would like the rest of us to be.
Just remind yourself how many faithful associates this WH has discarded, defamed and destroyed before you drink all the Koolaid.
This is just so much garbage. Yesterday was 8 years anniversary of a sitting administration ordering the stand-down of a ready, willing and able defense of attack on a our embassy on a foreign land resulting in the ’acceptable’ death of several including a US Ambassador. After constant scapegoating (it was an incendiary video, see Susan Rice, liar, Sunday Shows). Meaningful government measures like shipping a plane load of cash to bribe the despotic Iranian Mullahs to the dumbest deal of the 21st. Century. You eagerly swallow partisan lies while protesting other partisan lies... which is extremely predictable. I could go on but it is utterly pointless.

If you want to see who is being manipulated take a real long look in the mirror.
 
This is just so much garbage. Yesterday was 8 years anniversary of a sitting administration ordering the stand-down of a ready, willing and able defense of attack on a our embassy on a foreign land resulting in the ’acceptable’ death of several including a US Ambassador. After constant scapegoating (it was an incendiary video, see Susan Rice, liar, Sunday Shows). Meaningful government measures like shipping a plane load of cash to bribe the despotic Iranian Mullahs to the dumbest deal of the 21st. Century. You eagerly swallow partisan lies while protesting other partisan lies... which is extremely predictable. I could go on but it is utterly pointless.

If you want to see who is being manipulated take a real long look in the mirror.
More equivocation: that's what you've got? This was about the C19 virus and how we got here, wasn't it? Not the playbook quotes.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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Chris-I'm part of the more than 50% of voters that didn't elect the current regime.
By regime, I mean specifically to compare it to other 3rd World despotic and self serving political/criminal enterprises.

The constant seeking of scapegoats for all shortcomings, real and "imagined" in the US has pre-occupied the Executive branch since the election.
That has left no time for meaningful government measures unless you consider the yard sale of US public property access in exchange for political favors, compromise of real environmental protection and the daily misinformation of the US public as "progress".
You say "all politicians lie...." as though that equivocation justifies how manipulated DT supporters are and how manipulated this administration would like the rest of us to be.

Just remind yourself how many faithful associates this WH has discarded, defamed and destroyed before you drink all the Koolaid.
Not one of those comments have a single thing to do with C19 virus and how we got here. They are garbage partisan talking points.

But I’m the one equivocating. Sure. Self awareness seems to be in short supply.
 
Not one of those comments have a single thing to do with C19 virus and how we got here. They are garbage partisan talking points.

But I’m the one equivocating. Sure. Self awareness seems to be in short supply.
It REPRESENTs the entirety of the WH investment in fighting C19 in the US...the country with the highest death count/population and growing of developed countries. Someone is still very proud of their contribution to the effort.
 
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It REPRESENTs the entirety of the WH investment in fighting C19 in the US...the country with the highest death count/population and growing of developed countries. Someone is still very proud of their contribution to the effort.
Third crap post in a row. That must be some kind of record.

Tell me, do Governors of States and Mayors of big cities play any role in this? It’s a rhetorical question.

DR. ANTHONY FAUCI: Well, we've never had a threat like this and the coordinated response has been, there are a number of adjectives to describe it. Impressive, I think is one of them.

I mean, we're talking about all-hands on-deck is that I, as one of many people on a team, I'm not the only person, since the beginning that we even recognized what this was. I have been devoting almost full time on this -- almost full time.

I'm down at the White House virtually every day with the Taskforce. I'm connected by phone throughout the day and into the night and when I say night, I'm talking twelve, one, two in the morning. I'm not the only one. There's a whole group of us that are doing that. It's every single day.

So I can't imagine that that under any circumstances that anybody could be doing more. I mean, obviously, we're fighting a formidable enemy -- this virus. This virus is a serious issue here.

Take a look at what it's done to China, to Europe, to South Korea. It is serious and our response is aimed, and I know you've heard that many, many times, and this is true. I mean, I deal with viruses my entire career.

When you have an outbreak virus, if you leave it to its own devices, it will peak up and then come back down. What we learned from China, that letting it peak up is really bad, because it can do some serious damage. So we are focused now, like a laser on doing whatever we can, and there are two or three things that deserve to be mentioned -- to make this peak actually be a mound, which means you're going to have suffering, you're going to have illness, you're going to have death. But it's not going to be the maximum that the virus can do.

A couple of ways to do that. The first was, as we say, all the time, the very timely decision on the part of the President to shut off travel from China, because we saw that there was this possibility of people coming in and seeding in the country. We did it early.

And as it turned out, there were relatively few cases in the big picture of things that came in from China. Unfortunately, for our colleagues, and many of whom are my friends and people I've trained actually in Medicine, in European countries, they didn't do that. And they got hit really hard and are being hit really hard. The first thing.

Second thing, when the infection burden shifted from China to Europe, we did the same thing with Europe. We shut off travel from Europe, which again was another safeguard to prevent influx from without in.

The other way you do it is by containment and mitigation. And now everybody knows what the word mitigation means because it's the things that we're doing. No crowds, work from home. Don't go to places that you can be susceptible. Ten people in a room, not 50 and a hundred people. Stay away from theatres.

Take the elderly people who are susceptible and have them do self- isolation. Stay out of bars, stay out of restaurants.

If you're in an area where there's a lot of coronavirus activity, close the bars, close the restaurants. That's heavy duty mitigation.

So I think with all of those things going on at the same time, I believe we will -- we're already doing it, but you just can't notice it yet because you have the dynamics of the virus going up. We're trying to put it down. You're not really sure quantitatively what you're doing, but you can be actually certain that we're having an impact on it.


When the stuff hit the fan I guess Fauci was on the Koolaid too.


Many developed Countries have a higher death rate than the US... Spain, UK, Belgium off the top of my head. Now, if you sourced your news from real outlets you’d already know that And you’d also know many developed nations are blowing up with new virus positives again.

Propaganda works. You are proof of it.
 
It's like an alternate universe..The current U.S.Government administration that promised testing,has nothing to do with past or future US administrations.
Trump was in charge in January and February when official information was given,Biden,Hillary,No Obama was part of any decisions made about US Covid policy or procedure in any way.
President Trump spoke on Covid testing and it's availability in the US..
Trump dispanded the pandemic task force and the existing infrastructure.

 
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Flatfooted..I could not agree more..but those flat feet were from January and February...no later..let's not pretend that anything was a surprise,we have documents that illuminate who knew what when..and we,the world see the action taken..
 

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