Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Chris-I'm part of the more than 50% of voters that didn't elect the current regime. By regime, I mean specifically to compare it to other 3rd World despotic and self serving political/criminal enterprises. The constant seeking of scapegoats for all shortcomings, real and "imagined" in the US has pre-occupied the Executive branch since the election.
That has left no time for meaningful government measures unless you consider the yard sale of US public property access in exchange for political favors, compromise of real environmental protection and the daily misinformation of the US public as "progress". You say "all politicians lie...." as though that equivocation justifies how manipulated DT supporters are and how manipulated this administration would like the rest of us to be.
Just remind yourself how many faithful associates this WH has discarded, defamed and destroyed before you drink all the Koolaid.
I say "most politicians lie" pretty frequently, but clarify it with "not all lies are equal though". Not only are all lie not equal, lying multiple times per day for years on is a monster with its own life. The recent lies made public likely caused thousands of deaths!
 
The premise that we know all the facts would be stupid,equally as dumb,pretending we need all the facts..we have to act on current info..wait and see can't work..need testing,tracing and treatment..nothing else will work.
and the news Trump gave " that we are rounding the final turn.... " that could be true if you are going to crash and die after the first couple of loops of a 1000 lap industrial park crit..
And same day a doctor,w @40years experience,expertise said that we are no where near a final corner.
Most experts are saying things about weather and behavior changes that come with fall and winter..indoor activities \actions increase exponentially.
vaccine folks are also giving completely contrary information, a participant in a study came up with an over the top ultra rate condition that effects the spinal cord and fluid..
 
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Chris Gadsden

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It's like an alternate universe..The current U.S.Government administration that promised testing,has nothing to do with past or future US administrations.
Trump was in charge in January and February when official information was given,Biden,Hillary,No Obama was part of any decisions made about US Covid policy or procedure in any way.
President Trump spoke on Covid testing and it's availability in the US..
Trump dispanded the pandemic task force and the existing infrastructure.

As the most prominent scientist involved in the government's response, Fauci was occasionally put on the hot seat by both Democrats and Republicans. Rep. David McKinley, R-W.Va., asked him whether he thought criticism of Trump in the news media was unfair, noting that Fauci has sometimes contradicted the president's statements.

"I work in the White House, and I believe that everyone there is doing everything they possibly can to do what they need to do," Fauci replied.

McKinley then pointed to the lack of consensus about wearing masks, as late as March 31. He asked Fauci whether he regrets "not advising people more forcefully to wear masks earlier."

"OK, we're going to play that game," Fauci said, sounding annoyed. "I don't regret that, because let me explain to you what happened. At that time, there was a paucity of equipment that our health care providers needed, who put themselves daily in harm's way of taking care of people who are ill. We did not want to divert masks and PPE away from them, to be used by the people. Now that we have enough, we recommend. ..."

The most prominent scientist is defending the response from the admin. Scientists comments are real important And should be listened to untIl they shouldn’t.
 

Chris Gadsden

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Oct 28, 2019
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The response to the Covid 19 pandemic is the responsibility of the current President,not past or future.
Whole of Society Approach is actually the outlined National Pandemic response. But, ya know, strike wherever you have to.

3.1.1. Government leadership
While all sectors of society are involved in pandemic preparedness and response, the national government is the natural leader for overall coordination and communication efforts. In its leadership role, the central government should:
  • identify, appoint, and lead the coordinating body for pandemic preparedness and response; enact or modify legislation and policies required to sustain and optimize pandemic preparedness, capacity development, and response efforts across all sectors;
  • prioritize and guide the allocation and targeting of resources to achieve the goals as outlined in a country's Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Plan;
  • provide additional resources for national pandemic preparedness, capacity development, and response measures; and
  • consider providing resources and technical assistance to countries experiencing outbreaks of influenza with pandemic potential.
3.1.2. Health sector
The health sector (including public health and both public and private health-care services), has a natural leadership and advocacy role in pandemic influenza preparedness and response efforts. In cooperation with other sectors and in support of national intersectoral leadership, the health sector must provide leadership and guidance on the actions needed, in addition to raising awareness of the risk and potential health consequences of an influenza pandemic. To fulfil this role, the health sector should be ready to:
  • provide reliable information on the risk, severity, and progression of a pandemic and the effectiveness of interventions used during a pandemic;
  • prioritize and continue the provision of health-care during an influenza pandemic;
  • enact steps to reduce the spread of influenza in the community and in health-care facilities; and
  • protect and support health-care workers during a pandemic.
3.1.3. Non-health sectors
In the absence of early and effective preparedness, societies may experience social and economic disruption, threats to the continuity of essential services, reduced production, distribution difficulties, and shortages of essential commodities. Disruption of organizations may also have an impact on other businesses and services. For example, if electrical or water services are disrupted or fail, the health sector will be unable to maintain normal care. The failure of businesses would add significantly to the eventual economic consequences of a pandemic. Some business sectors will be especially vulnerable and certain groups in society are likely to suffer more than others. Developing robust preparedness and business continuity plans may enable essential operations to continue during a pandemic and significantly mitigate economic and social impacts. In order to minimize the adverse effects of a pandemic, all sectors should:
  • establish continuity policies to be implemented during a pandemic;
  • plan for the likely impact on businesses, essential services, educational institutions, and other organizations;
  • establish pandemic preparedness plans;
  • develop capacity and plan for pandemic response;
  • plan the allocation of resources to protect employees and customers;
  • communicate with and educate employees on how to protect themselves and on measures that will be implemented; and
  • contribute to cross-cutting planning and response efforts to support the continued functioning of the society.
3.1.4. Communities, individuals, and families
Civil society organizations, families, individuals, and traditional leaders all have essential roles to play in mitigating the effects of an influenza pandemic. Non-governmental groups should be involved in preparedness efforts and their expertise and capabilities harnessed to help communities prepare for and respond to a pandemic. The supporting document ‘Whole-of-society pandemic readiness’ explores the roles of each of these groups in greater detail.10
Civil society organizations
Groups that have a close and direct relationship with communities are often well placed to raise awareness, communicate accurate information, counter rumours, provide needed services, and liaise with the government during an emergency. Such groups should identify their strengths and potential roles and, in partnership with local governments and other local organizations, plan for the actions they will take during a pandemic. These groups may be able to augment the efforts of organizations in other sectors, such as hospitals or clinics. For example, if large numbers of ill people are being cared for at home, community and faith-based organizations could provide support to households.
Individuals and families
During a pandemic, it is important that households take measures to ensure they have access to accurate information, food, water, and medicines. For families, access to reliable information from sources such as WHO and local and national governments will be essential. Individuals, especially those who have recovered from pandemic influenza, may consider volunteering with an organized group to assist others in the community.
Because influenza is transmitted from one person to another, the adoption of individual and household measures such as covering coughs and sneezes, hand washing, and the voluntary isolation of persons with respiratory illness may prevent additional infections.
 
Not ‘like.’ It is. TDS is as real as it gets.

This will conclude my participation in this thread. This board is not unusual in it’s ability to create an echo-chamber and this is only another example. As stated earlier, the last thing Progressives want is a conversation.
They probably don't like convenient labels. I'm not a Progressive or a Deplorable. Cynical survivor is the best I can come up with at 68 years of age.
 
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Chris please don't give up on me because I will not give up on you.. There is no echo chamber,not all birds of a feather are flocking together.
it boils down to basics. If you are having a Covid-19 press conference and a majority of it is on such things as..political party of anyone, the rate of death in Europe or Asia..not on aggregate but instead as to say,look @195,000 deaths is that bad compared to XXXXX country.
And telling people that an election or political anything has anything to do with a coherent and intelligent pandemic containment or abatement strategy doesn't make sense..Start to finish. Viruses, including this one don't have any political affiliation. I state that as a fact but in lies the problem, somehow scientific evidence is politicized, masks, vaccines,social distancing, even killing somebody's child,wife or grandparents has been framed on a scale of desirability,tolerance based on a political reference again that is fact.
and for the sake of time, in my opinion it's of little importance how we got here,important is how to get the Fck out this hole, whatever hole your in.. Freedom hole,health hole or the economic crisis hole..the path out of those and the 1000's of others is the same,public health and safety. Yes you can climb out temporarily but unfortunately,ultimately we can't stay out of the hole until we have public health.
I am sure,that like over these last few years, don't take the person literally,or the ever popular,re re re explanation. It doesn't work for a pandemic, maybe a nuanced understanding of Stormy Dainels. OK..but Covid 19 testing and supplies? You either have them or you don't. No subtle anything,it's absolute.
This was false when stated then and is still false today.
On Marketplace..a @30 min radio program..a reported did a story Wednesday..twisty little tale..her kids school got shut down, the story was about the absolute arbitrary crazy fact that as of today..it maybe nearly impossible to get your child tested, and certainly tested before reentry into the same school or a new one..
How is that possible?
September 2020 and we still don't know which kids or their parents are sick coming and going from school? Get out..that has to be fake...right?
There is no F-ing way at this stage of the war..that we can't at a minimum check the really young and the really old..if we don't have a plan we would all be idiots.
 
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I know you are a Californian..I sometimes feel like I am pleading with that guy about at least trying clipless pedals..or talking to someone in 2020 that has facts about why downtube shifters are superior to everything..any time..any minute Ewan is going see..Sagan is going to have a light bulb flash on above his head and realize.. " the reason I didn't win these last few days is because I wasn't using Simplex friction shifters..or new old stock Campy Nuevo Record, if I only had those I would have been standing on the boxes a Hershey,or whatever that Swiss guy's name is.. "
Technology is available,just have to use it..
I think I might follow my own advice and remove the thorn proof tubes out of my 36 hole MA40 race wheels and full high tech I am going to put an alloy head on my Silca frame pump..I am going to keep the Velox tape and plugs..that's going tooooo far
Why do I need 12 speeds when old Regina 7 is still shiny?!!
 
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There is little historical evidence that we can achieve herd immunity by natural infection alone. Pathogens just don't generally infect themselves out of existence. And the human cost to trying would be losses in the millions of lives just in the USA. That is what mass testing is trying to stop. The only viable path to herd immunity IMO is how we have herd immunity for polio and measles, through vaccination campaigns.
Well...if the vaccines turn out to be either unsafe or ineffective the nation may have no choice of pursuing immunity by natural infection (there hasn't been any success in developing vaccines for coronaviruses or the SARS COVID-1) . Either that or rolling lockdowns, restrictions, social distancing, mask mandates...forever.
It may have been a rumor, but it is quite possible he died from COVID complications. Just like Robert Trump.
I don't see how it's quite possible that Stephens died from COVID-19 when the family retracted the statement and changed the obituary. And though there's no official cause of death listed for R. Trump, the family says he was suffering from intracerebral hemorrhaging from a fall a few months before his death. The elderly fall from declining balance all the time.
The current outbreaks in Europe and Israel are ironclad proof that they were nowhere close to herd immunity and neither is Sweden IMO. Speaking of Spain, I thought this was interesting comparison to NYC with a possible key difference being the policy around bars and restaurants. A caveat is that NYC probably has a higher baseline of prior exposure/ partial immunity from the first wave.
Tengell would disagree with you as he reiterated in his most recent interview I linked that herd immunity, at least in part, is responsible for the sharp decline in cases, hospitalizations & deaths. On NYC - have they fully opened up? (I don't think, for example, their gyms or rec centers have opened up yet?).
You are missing the key point. You can be asymptomatic initially early on and be contagious. You could test positive and develop symptoms the next day or two. That is the type of person that are trying to be identified so the transmission chain can be broken before that person infects others. Below is a paper about false negatives. No test is perfect. The PCR test is probably the most reliable. Like with the Antibody serology tests, it takes a little longer to develop a really good antigen test. Each generation of test will improve on the last.
You also can also easily not be contagious: Dr. Jason Leitch, Scotland's health chief, says the test can't distinguish between a live virus or remnants of a dead virus. And you're not infectious if it's a dead virus:


I read the paper from China and the antibody test they were using can also detect previous coronavirus infections that would have nothing to do with Covid. The Chinese were also claiming that pneumonia was the cardinal symptom of the new epidemic when pneumonia can be cause by many different pathologies. And ~300,000 people die every year of pneumonia in China going back long before the emergence of a new virus.

This:

Claus Köhnlein, M.D. Internal Medicine, Dept. of Oncology, Univ of Kiel, Germany:

View: https://vimeo.com/404203138


States the error rate for false positives from the PCR test is over 50%. He also has some thoughts on the virus and the need not to create fear over it.
 
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Well...if the vaccines turn out to be either unsafe or ineffective the nation may have no choice of pursuing immunity by natural infection (there hasn't been any success in developing vaccines for coronaviruses or the SARS COVID-1) . Either that or rolling lockdowns, restrictions, social distancing, mask mandates...forever.

Tengell would disagree with you as he reiterated in his most recent interview I linked that herd immunity, at least in part, is responsible for the sharp decline in cases, hospitalizations & deaths. On NYC - have they fully opened up? (I don't think, for example, their gyms or rec centers have opened up yet?).

You also can also easily not be contagious: Dr. Jason Leitch, Scotland's health chief, says the test can't distinguish between a live virus or remnants of a dead virus. And you're not infectious if it's a dead virus:


I read the paper from China and the antibody test they were using can also detect previous coronavirus infections that would have nothing to do with Covid. The Chinese were also claiming that pneumonia was the cardinal symptom of the new epidemic when pneumonia can be cause by many different pathologies. And ~300,000 people die every year of pneumonia in China going back long before the emergence of a new virus.

States the error rate for false positives from the PCR test is over 50%. He also has some thoughts on the virus and the need not to create fear over it.
SARS 1.0 disappeared before the vaccine was ready to be tested. You are misrepresenting what happened there. The vaccine did not fail by any definition and animal models suggest that it would be successful in humans. Speculating that the vaccine will be unsafe given that tens of thousands that have taken them is a bit overdramatic. They would not be in Phase III if they didn't pass safety benchmarks.

There is no such thing as partial herd immunity. Tengell should know that. If he really thought that they have achieved herd immunity in Sweden, he would tell people to stop doing all mitigation. There would be no threat of any further outbreaks. NYC hasn't fully opened because they know that this would lead to more outbreaks because no major metropolitan area is near herd immunity.

50% is just not a credible number for the PCR tests. Notice that there is no supporting evidence given for this claim. The false positive rate is likely under 1%. Like I said, the false negative rate is much higher. My personal test came back negative. But if it didn't, I would isolate out of caution. The fact that the test cannot tell whether the virus is infectious is the main reason to be cautious IMO.
 
Doubtful. I think this really gets at how paralyzed we are as a population. If people won't do the absolute minimum of wearing a mask, how are we going to do any thing harder to prevent the spread. At home testing is a good biological solution if a vaccine is not developed. But the people who won't wear masks will also be the same people who won't want to do at home testing or abide by the results. Probably people who won't get the vaccine either TBH. The scary thing to me is that if 'vaccines' were a concept that was just developed, I don't think it would be viable in the USA circa 2020. The whole concept is a vestigial holdover from a bygone era.
 
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Question for everybody, but especially dj et al who work in this field: does vigorously rubbing your hands under running water remove most virus? I'm asking because a colleague's hand are absolutely raw from the soap here at work and whatever hand sanitizer she is using between washes (my hands get dry, but hers look angry!). I encouraged her to use lotion, try other hand sanitizers, and maybe bring her own soap to work, but if rubbing her hands under running water could reduce the number of times that she has to fully wash her hands that might help as well. ??
 
Question for everybody, but especially dj et al who work in this field: does vigorously rubbing your hands under running water remove most virus? I'm asking because a colleague's hand are absolutely raw from the soap here at work and whatever hand sanitizer she is using between washes (my hands get dry, but hers look angry!). I encouraged her to use lotion, try other hand sanitizers, and maybe bring her own soap to work, but if rubbing her hands under running water could reduce the number of times that she has to fully wash her hands that might help as well. ??
I heard that it's the soap scum on the skin surface that makes the difference. Water temperature is not supposed to matter much. Maybe there is no need to scrub hard ?
 
I heard that it's the soap scum on the skin surface that makes the difference. Water temperature is not supposed to matter much. Maybe there is no need to scrub hard ?
Yes, soap breaks the protein shell of the virus destroying it, but I was wondering if just scrubbing under running water would 'mechanically' wash away at least some of the virus. Soap also breaks surface tension making things wash away more easily. Water temp is only important because warmer water makes the soap lather more. It takes 150 degree water to kill a virus which is too hot to wash your hands with.
 
It seems like you are asking if water alone is effective? It is better than nothing, but soap is more effective because of the detergent effect. Water is just rinsing the viral particles off your hands. I will add that it is unclear how often COVID-19 transmission is facilitated by hands.

One issue that is going to become apparent shortly is that some of the common cold viruses are more resistant to hand washing, so colds are going to be going around through workplaces and schools this winter despite people's best intentions. It is going to cause a lot of angst for people who get sick this winter and/ or are around people who appear to have cold symptoms.

NYC hit 1% positive after being below 1% for over a month. Signs in Massachusetts are pointing in the wrong direction. This morning was really the first real bit of chill in the air. Fall is right around the corner. I wish I were more positive, but I think we are a lot more unprepared than we realize for what is coming.

View: https://twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status/1304892999307071488
 
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It seems like you are asking if water alone is effective? It is better than nothing, but soap is more effective because of the detergent effect. Water is just rinsing the viral particles off your hands. I will add that it is unclear how often COVID-19 transmission is facilitated by hands.

One issue that is going to become apparent shortly is that some of the common cold viruses are more resistant to hand washing, so colds are going to be going around through workplaces and schools this winter despite people's best intentions. It is going to cause a lot of angst for people who get sick this winter and/ or are around people who appear to have cold symptoms.

NYC hit 1% positive after being below 1% for over a month. Signs in Massachusetts are pointing in the wrong direction. This morning was really the first real bit of chill in the air. Fall is right around the corner. I wish I were more positive, but I think we are a lot more unprepared than we realize for what is coming.

View: https://twitter.com/BioTurboNick/status/1304892999307071488
Well, sort of, I'm asking if there is any data out there about how effective just scrubbing under running water is.

My assumption is that her problem is an allergy to the soap here at work. They buy it in five gallon buckets on a pallet, and I'm sure its the least expensive stuff they can find so its probably barely OK for human use.

I too am concerned about what is coming this winter!
 

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