Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Oldermanish

Jan 31, 2016
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Nomad said:
Professor Sunetra Gupta, MD, Infectious Disease Epidemiologist & Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford:

View: https://youtu.be/waNZOT2ItT0


Suggests the UK should pursue a strategy of herd immunity allowing people under 30 to circulate normally while implementing care in protecting the most vulnerable and better infection control in hospitals. She feels facial coverings should be discretionary and not mandated.

35k views so far and hundreds of positive comments in support.
Click to expand...
Yeah; we saw the vision of herd immunity play out in LA after the Lakers won the NBA championship with no fans in the arena. Outside there were several thousand celebrants, most appear to be in that age group and almost none of them wearing masks. They were face to face and cheering like most fans do. This, after police had closed freeway ramp access and did what they could to discourage the crowds short of gassing them. WTF People!
 
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djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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Nomad said:
Professor Sunetra Gupta, MD, Infectious Disease Epidemiologist & Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford:

View: https://youtu.be/waNZOT2ItT0


Suggests the UK should pursue a strategy of herd immunity allowing people under 30 to circulate normally while implementing care in protecting the most vulnerable and better infection control in hospitals. She feels facial coverings should be discretionary and not mandated.

35k views so far and hundreds of positive comments in support.
Click to expand...
I don't agree with Gupta, but she is at least trying to make scientific claims in the appropriate venues. I can't be the only one who sees projection when the two are talking about digging too deep into their initial opinions and not wanting to change when hit with conflicting data. Pot meet kettle. I mean, hasn't she made the claim that the UK already had herd immunity or were very near it?

And their final conclusion is that we should do what Sweden is doing*.

*except for the part where they nearly decimated the care homes and then triaged those people to prevent the hospitals from being overrun.

Stockholm’s nursing homes ended up losing 7% of their 14,000 residents to the virus. The vast majority were not taken to hospitals. Although infections waned over the summer, scientists worry a new wave will hit in the fall. Cases are rising rapidly in the greater Stockholm area, where almost one-quarter of the Swedish population lives.
Click to expand...

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org www.sciencemag.org

The Sweden myth that those two are practicing.

You've heard it countless times: Sweden kept its COVID-19 curve flat without lockdowns or other major restrictions, and without damaging its economy. The U.S. and other countries should follow its lead, we're told.Baloney.
Let's take a look at those claims, along with how Sweden really did in comparison with the U.S. and other nations:
Click to expand...

www.medpagetoday.com

Op-Ed: The Sweden Myth

How did the country outperform everybody on COVID-19? That's easy -- it didn't
www.medpagetoday.com www.medpagetoday.com
 
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Unchained

Sep 5, 2016
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I think most of the above is wrong. Peer review is medicine..putting your work out there for scrutiny is bold..it's brave..and when something you worked sooooo hard for is destroyed from a pitfall,an oversight..the best,dignified pros move forward.
The idea that vaccines and disease studies are not being beaten up..put through professional punishment..by the absolute best..the brightest..should worry us all..
The solution..solutions for this will come..we need to accept them..from whatever messenger..from wherever they come
 
Jagartrott

Jagartrott

Apr 15, 2014
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Rising covid-fatigue + autumn weather = trouble. The US will likely follow, as the proper autumn weather still needs to kick in many places there. I've read an interesting article about how most countries still fail to properly take into account mass-spreading events. Japan has a ridiculously small testing capacity, but they go all in to track and avoid mass spreading events. With some success, I'd say.
 
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djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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Totally agree with that. I think the fact that a lot of the hardest hit places are in the Midwest where the weather is already pretty terrible is no coincidence. Wisconsin and the Dakotas are the canary in the coal mine for the rest of us and it stopped chirping. People the world over didn't make enough contingency planning for the worst case scenario last spring and I think we will be repeating some of those same mistakes this winter. This time, no one can say that we weren't warned.
 
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Keram

Oct 1, 2015
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Top Ice hockey league in Slovakia is still playing without spectators. Every round is without some postponed games though. There is 12 participants ( one is hungarian DVTK Miskolc).

So far coronavirus cases last few weeks.

25.9. - 20 positive players and staff at Nove Zamky.
4.10 - I dont know exact number but "the majority" of players of HC Kosice.
5.10. - one case in Liptovsky Mikulas.
12.10 - Dukla Michalovce 17 positives out of 36 tests
13.10- Corona case in locker room in HC Poprad
14.10. - 18 players + 5 staff members in HC Slovan

I dont know exact number but I think about 25% of players gets Covid and it is only pre season and first four rounds. Fortunetely I did not read about severe case yet.
 
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djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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The preliminary data from the US really looks like children under 10 should be back in school full time for most locations. They really don't seem to be spreaders. One person I know with kids in daycare and school suggested that the kids pass around viruses so frequently that their innate immune systems (primary defenses) are more vigilant and able to limit the initial colonization of COVID-19. Then there is the data about viral receptor expression dependent on age that I think MI has posted about. I think this also fits with the notion that fomites are not a big source of the spread. Little kids often spread their germs this way.
 
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jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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Jagartrott said:
Here in Belgium, almost all kids start going to school around 2.5-3 y., and before that, they're often in day-care with plenty of other children around.
Click to expand...
Yah, that's why I said 'depending on state/country' because I don't know what every state in the USA does, let alone every country. In Idaho USA, kids start kinder after their fifth birthday.

Day care and schools are usually a bad comparison simply because of numbers (ie: day care with 20 vs a school with 500).
 
Jagartrott

Jagartrott

Apr 15, 2014
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They don't learn to read and write until they are 5-6, but they get all sort of 'fun' teaching - arts, logic, building, etc. I guess this is similar in other parts of the world? School is not compulsary here until they are 5, but almost every kid gets sent to school starting at 2.5-3 since it's so convenient and usually very close-by.

Anyway, my wife, who teaches science to future kindergarten and primary school teachers, told me one of her students tested positive. She had attended a scouts leadership meeting in a cantine, without face mask as there was food and drinks. Apparently 1 person infected 25 others (out of 40 people present)... It's the mass spreads that need to be cut out. If you can do that, you'll be avoiding a lot of cases. 80/20 rule and all.
 
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Cookster15

Cookster15

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May 14, 2011
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djpbaltimore said:
I don't agree with Gupta, but she is at least trying to make scientific claims in the appropriate venues. I can't be the only one who sees projection when the two are talking about digging too deep into their initial opinions and not wanting to change when hit with conflicting data. Pot meet kettle. I mean, hasn't she made the claim that the UK already had herd immunity or were very near it?

And their final conclusion is that we should do what Sweden is doing*.

*except for the part where they nearly decimated the care homes and then triaged those people to prevent the hospitals from being overrun.


Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org www.sciencemag.org

The Sweden myth that those two are practicing.



www.medpagetoday.com

Op-Ed: The Sweden Myth

How did the country outperform everybody on COVID-19? That's easy -- it didn't
www.medpagetoday.com www.medpagetoday.com
Click to expand...
That article focuses on the economy but Sweden's economy is also dependent upon trade with the rest of Europe and the world. Looking at Virus numbers alone, I see very few deaths from Covid in Sweden now. No myth. Most of their deaths were before August and of those nearly all were the elderly, over 70. Current Sweden stats as I write (World-o-meter) are 73,095 cases and only 25 people listed as serious or critical. Sweden is now recording only 1 or 2 Covid related deaths per day compared to a peak of over 100 per day back in April.
 
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djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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Cookster15 said:
That article focuses on the economy but Sweden's economy is also dependent upon trade with the rest of Europe and the world. Looking at Virus numbers alone, I see very few deaths from Covid in Sweden now. No myth. Most of their deaths were before August and of those nearly all were the elderly, over 70. Current Sweden stats as I write (World-o-meter) are 73,095 cases and only 25 people listed as serious or critical. Sweden is now recording only 1 or 2 Covid related deaths per day compared to a peak of over 100 per day back in April.
Click to expand...
Compare Sweden to Denmark and Norway. Totally different strategies and the latter also have very few deaths (675 in Denmark and 277 in Norway) and also managed to not decimate their care homes. Sweden's total of 5,892 doesn't look so sharp, especially considering that their outbreak is clearly growing again.

File this under "shocker". Apparently they were only mandated to wear masks when they were NOT working out. Who could've guessed this would happen. Different circumstances but I am really curious if Yates infected Kruiswijk.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1316419781436887040
View: https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1316419781436887040
 
Cookster15

Cookster15

Moderator
May 14, 2011
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djpbaltimore said:
Compare Sweden to Denmark and Norway. Totally different strategies and the latter also have very few deaths (675 in Denmark and 277 in Norway) and also managed to not decimate their care homes. Sweden's total of 5,892 doesn't look so sharp, especially considering that their outbreak is clearly growing again.

File this under "shocker". Apparently they were only mandated to wear masks when they were NOT working out. Who could've guessed this would happen. Different circumstances but I am really curious if Yates infected Kruiswijk.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1316419781436887040
View: https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1316419781436887040
Click to expand...
Except Sweden is recording almost zero deaths now despite cases rising again. Nearly all of Sweden's nearly 6,000 deaths were before August. I also think you will find Sweden has admitted publicly they didn't protect their elderly early in the pandemic but have since learned from this.
 
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djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
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Cookster15 said:
Except Sweden is recording almost zero deaths now despite cases rising again. Nearly all of Sweden's nearly 6,000 deaths were before August. I also think you will find Sweden has admitted publicly they didn't protect their elderly early in the pandemic but have since learned from this.
Click to expand...
We'll see this winter if that is true. Exam time around the world is fast approaching.
 
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jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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dusty red roads

Mar 21, 2015
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japantoday.com

Supercomputer shows humidity affects aerosol spread of coronavirus

A Japanese supercomputer showed that humidity can have a large effect on the dispersion of virus particles, pointing to heightened coronavirus contagion risks in dry, indoor conditions during the winter months. The finding suggests that the use of humidifiers may help limit infections during...
japantoday.com japantoday.com

Humidifiers over here are pretty normal over the winter months as the air gets pretty dry over here then. Humid summers - perhaps that's also helped Japan, though it's the same all over SE Asia too, so who knows!
 
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