Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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I was blown away by hearing and reading about what restaurants are doing to accommodate diners in the first winter of Covid. I am a Mammoth person,but I also like Tahoe,Utah and Colorado..I dream to ski Idaho this year or British Columbia if one of my lotto tickets pays out..
I just can't wrap my head around how ski lodge dining will work. For the most part the places I go to have huge halls w picnic tables and speed lines for sandwiches,pizza, burger,fast food..outside massive racks to ditch your skis and poles and down some food and drink..w a complete random availability of seating,when somebody stands up after finishing,someone else sits down to start eating..who you are sitting with is insignificant in my experience..
The stuff I am hearing about is personal igloos ,yurts and rooms within restaurants w doors to isolate you from other guests..all this sounds beyond depressing to me because people watching is an absolute favorite of mine during ski outings..not looking forward to looking at myself in a tent or yurt..
Welcome to our new reality where many experiences won't be the same as before C19. Skiing has always been fairly social out of the very nature of getting on a hill and personal safety. Skiing is safer if someone is with you. Now everyone will be wearing balaclavas and getting reservations for lift access.
Canada and Utah were on my agenda last year and the shutdown was very disappointing. Fortunately for most of us, cycling is an outlet but racing is a no-go in the US and likely will be shut down for part of 2021. We will be whining a-plenty and hope all here that miss the outdoors/indoors can hold on until a solution emerges. At least we can get some therapy discussing this together, yes?
 
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Scott Atlas, ladies and gentlemen....
We don’t know how long someone’s immunity lasts to this, but this is a coronavirus, this is not a completely novel disease.
Actually it is, but it is really great that the person in charge of the COVID-19 response does not get this point. Think if he had said that about SARS, 'this is a coronavirus, this is not a completely novel disease'. The lack of prior exposure to the human population means that this is a novel disease. Just like Spanish Flu was a novel disease in 1918 even though it was just an influenza virus. Go back to reading x-rays, you tool....

About Fauci.
He’s just one person on the task force — there are several people on the task force. His background is virology, immunology and infectious disease. It’s a very different background, it’s a more limited approach, and I don’t speak for him.
Maybe you should speak to him to learn some of the finer points of Immunology before blathering away at things you don't really understand.

On protecting old people.
We have not been perfect at it, there’s no question — it’s very challenging.
No S***.
“I have a 93 year old mother in law, and she said to me 2 months ago, “I’m not interested in being confined in my home. I am not interested in living if that’s the life… I’m old enough to take a risk, I understand social distancing. I’m going to function, otherwise there’s no reason to live.” This sort of bizarre, maybe well-intentioned but misguided idea that we are going to eliminate all risk from life, we are going to stop people from taking any risk that they are well aware of, we’re going to close down businesses, we’re going to stop schools — these are inappropriate and destructive policies.There are between 30,000 and 90,000 people a year that die — that are high risk elderly — in the United States every flu season. We don’t shut down schools in response to that…”
Whatabout Flu. It is amazing that this is still the staple retort of COVID apologists.

On Herd immunity.
In fact, if you don’t that believe herd immunity exists as a way to block the pathways to the vulnerable in an infection, then you would never advocate or believe in giving widespread vaccination.
This strawman after repeatedly claiming that he doesn't believe herd immunity is their policy. But if he wants to conflate vaccination into the concept, isn't that exactly our strategy?

On lockdowns
All of these harms are massive for the working class and the lower socioeconomic groups. The people who are upper class, who can work from home, the people who can sip their latte and complain that their children are underfoot or that they have to come up with extra money to hire a tutor privately — these are people who are not impacted by the lockdowns. This is the topic, this is why you open up. A secondary gain might be population immunity, but this is the reason to open up.
Yeah, clearly not promoting herd immunity. Another bit where he should consult immunologists because what he is saying is not remotely possible without massive collateral damage and probably is not possible even if you let the virus run wild.
Now, there are 7 million registered cases in the US but even the CDC says that it’s probably tenfold that, that’s 70 million people at least; if we look at the world’s cases, maybe 40 million cases but we know that it’s probably 10 to 20 times that. So it’s not possible to do things like contact tracing and isolating asymptomatic people.
His circular logic on full display. Lockdowns are too damaging, even if they do decrease case counts. So, we can't do that. But there are also too many cases to test and trace, so we can't do that either. Remember the quote from the Harvard Epidemiologist that I posted yesterday? "If your goal is to do nothing, then you create a situation in which it looks okay to do nothing [and] you find some experts to make it complicated." This is it.
A lot of these people who have very fancy CVs have engaged in very sloppy thinking.
More than you realize, buddy.....

I’ve gone through various levels of being angry. I’m not angry but I’m sort of disgusted and dismayed at the state of things.
The guy cares more about his reputation IMO than the lives of any person in this country. You can tell. And, yes, he is angry that his colleagues wrote that letter criticizing him.
 
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Well it appears immunity per say doesn't last that long. Gaviria tested positive at the Giro AND he was one of the cyclists who had it at UAE Tour. Now at UAE he got sick, apparently so far this time he's asymptomatic.
Here was my post from earlier:
Gaviria positive again. With other second-timers the assertion has been that their first bout wasn't that bad so they didn't build antibodies, but Gaviria was in the hospital for an extended time so you would think that his was severe enough to get a strong immune response. I'll be curious what his next test result is.
 
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The US Centers for Disease Control and Protection has found that 300,000 excess deaths were recorded in the US this year – 66% of which are accounted for by the official coronavirus death toll of around 220,000.

Excess deaths refer to how many more deaths have been reported in total this year compared with the same period last year. Usually, between the beginning of February and the end of September, about 1.9 million deaths are reported. This year, it is closer to 2.2 million – a 14.5% increase.

The remaining deaths, the CDC wrote, “provide information about the degree to which Covid-19 deaths might be underascertained”. While the remaining 100,000 deaths may not be people who had contracted coronavirus, these deaths may be indirectly related to the pandemic: a heart attack victim, for example, who might not have been able to get treatment because hospitals were overwhelmed.


The largest portion of the excess deaths occurred among people aged 75 to 84. That groups saw about 95,000 deaths, or 21.5% more than in a normal year. But the biggest relative increase, of 26.5%, was in people aged 25 to 44. Deaths among under-25s dropped slightly.

Deaths were up for different racial and ethnic groups, but the largest increase - 54% - was among Hispanic Americans.
 
Here was my post from earlier:
Gaviria positive again. With other second-timers the assertion has been that their first bout wasn't that bad so they didn't build antibodies, but Gaviria was in the hospital for an extended time so you would think that his was severe enough to get a strong immune response. I'll be curious what his next test result is.
Also see if his second time is less severe. If it's less severe it may be proof of T-cells? Those won't prevent infect, but will react faster to prevent it from getting worse.
 
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Here was my post from earlier:
Gaviria positive again. With other second-timers the assertion has been that their first bout wasn't that bad so they didn't build antibodies, but Gaviria was in the hospital for an extended time so you would think that his was severe enough to get a strong immune response. I'll be curious what his next test result is.
Gaviria was put it hospital as a precautionary measure - he wasn't that ill first time.
 
I'm hoping for him that this is another of those false positives.
But it's too late to return to the Giro. Given that these are extraordinary times, I think there ought to be extraordinary measures. If a rider tests positive, and has to drop out, but is cleared a day or two later, why not let him return? He could be disqualified from the GC or points, but he ought at least to be able to rejoin his team and help them, and maybe try to win a stage. It does't seem fair that a rider has to drop out because of a mistake.

Gaviria was put it hospital as a precautionary measure - he wasn't that ill first time.
It was reported that he spent a month in the hospital. If that's true, he must have been pretty sick.
 
Most estimates say that less than @12% of Americans have been exposed to the virus,so no matter what expert you quote for heard immunity,ouch..that is a big number to get anywhere near. With a pretty loose start date,let's say 7 months and @220,000+ dead and that is with earlier lock downs that look to be impossible for our future,shooting for mass immunity through exposure vs a vaccine will be devastating.
The post above about gun sales,believe it,I have seen it first hand, shells and clay that used to be everywhere at Wal-Mart and a sporting goods store near me..sold out or in a state of selling out the day after delivery and it gets on the shelf..
* Still no Clorox or equivalent disinfectant wipes*
Mexico -US border reopening delayed again for the next reevaluation date November 21st.
Many pubs\bars in East county San Diego are still closed..? I am not that curious but maybe some of the dives that host day drinkers will never reopen.
All buffet restaurants look to be gone..forever here in SCal..and the Seafood Super Buffet had good sushi and had good food.. All Soup Plantation restaurants are gone..
Motorcycle repair places have a week+ lead time..
Fishing equipment looks like it's restocked again..
Supposedly bike shops have seen @100% increase in activity..we are down to 2 Trek Superstore locations so I think that Performance went under a year too early!!!
Watched a little of Dr.Fauci..if the guy is half as good a doctor as he is a gentleman, he must be the best doctor in the US!! That guy defines turn the other cheek..
 
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One thing that should really really really trouble all Americans. Recently released interview tapes of President Trump,having him calling the top infectious disease specialist he hired an idiot. Dr.Fauci still remains employed by President Trump. If he is an idiot? That is a separate matter, Trump said he has yet to replace or fire Fauci because it would not be politically prudent.. If anyone ever wanted to get a horse's mouth account of U.S. Government pandemic priority list, there you have it..
The guy I hired to fight covid 19 sucks but I have more important things to do than get somebody else..
How can that even make sense to anybody?
when we reach 325,000 dead..that will be 1 out of every 1000 effected..sad
 
40% of Americans have an underlying condition. And Gupta doesn't seem to understand that the purpose of wearing a mask, for the umpteenth thousandth time, is TO PROTECT OTHERS, NOT YOURSELF. It's precisely people who are not at high risk, and therefore who may be invisible with mild or no symptoms, who need to wear a mask.
Really? A renowned Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at Oxford DOESN'T GET IT?

Why don't you email Gupta and tell her she "doesn't get it." Better yet, why don't you set up a Zoom debate with her - she must have some scientific basis for not recommending masks other than for the elderly or those with underlying medical conditions...unless of course you don't think teaching epidemiology at Oxford is any big deal.

Here's a suggestion: do your search for positive articles in peer-reviewed scientific journals, not in posts by journalists who aren't scientists.
I have. Here's one I posted previously with Dr. Soo Aleman of the Karolinska institute ref T-Cell-mediated immunity with exposure to Covid-19 that was published in Cell:



Tengell is part of the leadership that said Stockholm would have herd immunity by the end of June. The reason he's not recommending masks is because he wants as many people to catch the virus as possible. As long as he's an advocate of natural herd immunity, everything he recommends is to further the spread of the virus, not prevent it.
It seems like Tengell is involved in some kind of a wrestling match with the media. In his most recent interview a few days ago, he says the strategy was never herd immunity and states Sweden implemented a "virtual lockdown" to slow the spread (in previous interviews, he has stated that soft restrictions were undertaken consequently seeing "some degree of herd immunity").


"Anders Tegnell, Sweden's chief epidemiologist, defended his country's coronavirus strategy in an interview with the New Statesman, telling the newspaper that Sweden did not pursue "herd immunity" and "definitely had a virtual lockdown" — despite looser restrictions than most countries."

"Why it matters: Sweden's more relaxed approach to the pandemic compared to other industrialized countries has been a source of controversy, with many libertarians and conservatives, including Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), arguing that the U.S. should have pursued a similar strategy."

"Context: Schools, restaurants, and bars in Sweden were never closed. Masks were not recommended. And while the government did limit public gatherings to 50 people, the restriction did not apply to all circumstances."
 
Whatever the science behind her position on masks in general, that she calls this "child abuse" makes it impossible for me to take her seriously.
To be clear, Gupta never called it "child abuse." That characterization was made by Dr. Sucharit Bhakdi in a video he presented. He said it's "child abuse" for children to be forced to wear masks where CO2 levels rise and rebreathed CO2 could cause hypercapnia:

View: https://youtu.be/Gw6flWjHQHs


Gupta's statement is she doesn't recommend wearing masks except for the elderly or those with underlying medical conditions.

Nonetheless, maybe we shouldn't take seriously a Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at Oxford. :rolleyes:
 
Since none of you really know me I can admit something here. I haven't fired a single round since 1991 (thousands and thousands of rounds before that), but the thought has crossed my mind to dust off my 9 mm and go to the range in prep for what might happen Nov. through Jan. Yes, I also realizes the crazy part of that thinking.
 
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I would take Gupta more seriously if she would perform a little self-reflection. This is what her modeling suggested.
Professor Sunetra Gupta made the news headlines in March, when she and her colleagues in the Department of Zoology at the University of Oxford ran a predictive model that assumed COVID-19 had arrived in the UK in January – a month earlier than thought. They argued that these extra weeks would have made all the difference, giving the virus enough time to spread to as much as two-thirds of the population, thus achieving a degree of herd immunity. Their research also assumed that only a small proportion of the population, just 0.1%, would be at risk of hospitalisation.
You will not be surprised to hear that the covid truthers decrying the 'bad models' from the experts are giving her a pass on this horrible prediction. This is what she was saying in early September.
I don’t think we are seeing a resurgence...It’s not really a resurgence. It’s just where it didn’t increase in the first place. Now all the barriers have been removed, it is increasing. I don’t see any surprises in that pattern. What I do think is interesting is that it’s not resurgent in many areas that did suffer the full brunt of the pandemic, so in London, New York, northern Italy, Sweden.
The numbers are clearly going up in Sweden. See figure below. Italy is going up again and Lombardy is putting up curfews, so they clearly are seeing cases rising in that hard hit spot. What does she think about that?
View: https://twitter.com/thehowie/status/1318556402630217729

It’s important to put every bit of effort into understanding how the immune response to the virus affects infection, disease, and severe disease. That’s not a huge revelation, but what I hadn’t anticipated was that the cross-protection from other coronaviruses goes much further than expected.
This is just not true according to the best evidence that we have. It has been published that those T cells don't even react against the cold coronaviruses. She clearly has had a distinguished career. But at this point, when your arguments stop making sense, you should be expected to be called out on it. I think she needs to talk to more Immunologists. Her expertise is from the modeling side.
 
But it's too late to return to the Giro. Given that these are extraordinary times, I think there ought to be extraordinary measures. If a rider tests positive, and has to drop out, but is cleared a day or two later, why not let him return? He could be disqualified from the GC or points, but he ought at least to be able to rejoin his team and help them, and maybe try to win a stage. It does't seem fair that a rider has to drop out because of a mistake.



It was reported that he spent a month in the hospital. If that's true, he must have been pretty sick.
That is incorrect - He was kept in hospital for nearly two weeks BECAUSE the health authorities wouldn't release him until he produced three consecutive negative tests - His problem was two negative tests , followed by a positive and the clock resets - Yes there was a staff member of UAE who was rather ill and was in hospital for over two weeks.
 
Since none of you really know me I can admit something here. I haven't fired a single round since 1991 (thousands and thousands of rounds before that), but the thought has crossed my mind to dust off my 9 mm and go to the range in prep for what might happen Nov. through Jan. Yes, I also realizes the crazy part of that thinking.
Not so crazy in some areas. My relatives moved to Michigan and one of them is deeply involved in a University's medical program and facilities management as well as statewide Covid 19 mitigation. There is a rural surrounding to the University and lots of open-carry proponents visible. Combine that with the Wolverine Militia (or whatever they call themselves) planning to kidnap, try for treason and execute the elected State Governor and you can imagine they are a little on edge. There is a fair amount of conspiracy-based hate correspondence directed at the University's administration over involvement in the State's program and campus lockdowns due to careless outbreaks by students.

Over in the NW we're seeing some lighter version of the same behavior and pre-election posturing. Probably no more than other areas but there is an increase in violent crimes involving guns. It isn't so far fetched that you'd refresh self defense skills if your life requires you to be in more risky situations; particularly if you have vulnerable family to consider.
 
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Not so crazy in some areas. My relatives moved to Michigan and one of them is deeply involved in a University's medical program and facilities management as well as statewide Covid 19 mitigation. There is a rural surrounding to the University and lots of open-carry proponents visible. Combine that with the Wolverine Militia (or whatever they call themselves) planning to kidnap, try for treason and execute the elected State Governor and you can imagine they are a little on edge. There is a fair amount of conspiracy-based hate correspondence directed at the University's administration over involvement in the State's program and campus lockdowns due to careless outbreaks by students.

Over in the NW we're seeing some lighter version of the same behavior and pre-election posturing. Probably no more than other areas but there is an increase in violent crimes involving guns. It isn't so far fetched that you'd refresh self defense skills if your life requires you to be in more risky situations; particularly if you have vulnerable family to consider.
My chances are super low of needing to defend myself/wife/house, but certainly higher than they were last year at this time. We have a fairly high profile domestic terrorist and his posy who have mostly intimidated people with their guns, but who knows how they may escalate.
 
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I read on the news a few days back that here in the UK they're tightening restrictions at the moment, as hospital admissions are higher than during the full lockdown, but it then said there are 250 patients in hospitals for covid now. Which is it just me or is that very very little...... Meanwhile there are thousands of people like me that have lost their jobs because of the restrictions.. I've got into debt, so much so that I was looking at an IVA which it turns out I cant afford as I'm on benefits and don't have any other household income. I've never been in this position before, I've always worked and I feel at my wits end. Personally, I feel getting covid would be less damaging to my life than the effect its had on my finances. I don't know what to think really, you hear so many different opinions on it
 
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That is incorrect - He was kept in hospital for nearly two weeks BECAUSE the health authorities wouldn't release him until he produced three consecutive negative tests - His problem was two negative tests , followed by a positive and the clock resets - Yes there was a staff member of UAE who was rather ill and was in hospital for over two weeks.
Yaco is right that Gaviria was not seriously sick the first time. This is what CN article says about it:

... he was only said to have suffered mild symptoms, and was only discharged once he produced three negative tests.

“The fever went after two days and after that I didn't feel anything in particular: no coughing fits, no sore lungs, nothing. I had to wait a very long while to get a negative result to appear on the tests, but with hindsight the important thing was I felt normal during that process.”
 
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