Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[jmdirt]

I repeat, it has been pointed out again and again and again by virtually every epidemiologist that the primary purpose of masks is to prevent the wearers from spreading the virus, not to protect the wearer from the virus. There is thought to be some benefit for the latter, but that is secondary. Everything you have quoted Gupta as saying about this indicates that, indeed, she doesn't get it. If she got it, she would not recommend masks only for those most seriously at risk. This is ass-backwards.

Even if she thinks masks can cause health problems--and this idea has also been rebutted--it wouldn't support letting older people, certain to be more vulnerable to such problems, wear masks, would it? The only rationale she could possibly have for recommending those at risk wear masks is that masks protect wearers, and while there does seem to be some benefit, it's nowhere near as important as protecting others.

Here's another lesson for you. In science, we don't defer to authority. It doesn't make any difference what position someone holds or how many papers the person has published, s/he gets criticized on the basis of merit. And Gupta's advice that only those at high risk should wear masks is without merit. Not because every other epidemiologist will contradict it, though that certainly ought to sway most people, but because the overwhelming amount of evidence does.

I've been a scientist for decades, but I've never discussed the positions I've held, nor listed the number of peer-reviewed papers I've published, nor emphasized my fields of expertise. Why? Because none of that matters. If I make a claim here, I cite studies that back it up, I don't ask people to believe me because I'm an authority.

And it's the same with any other real scientist. Do you ever hear Fauci say, believe what I say, because I'm a famous virologist, and know what I'm talking about? Of course not. When he makes a point, or claim, or recommendation, he cites evidence, reasons that support that position.



I addressed this upthread. I pointed out that even if the most optimistic interpretations are true, and that there are twice as many people with antibodies as previously thought (but see Baltimore's post), it still doesn't bring Stockholm, let alone the rest of the world, close to herd immunity.



The strategy most definitely was herd immunity. He can backtrack and deny, just as other herd immunity proponents, like Scott Atlas, have done, and maybe Tegnell himself never advocated this, but other public officials in Sweden did, and I sure don't recall Tegnell vigorously opposing them. As i said before, one of these officials was optimistically predicting that Stockholm would get there by the end of June.

I've been the resident mask ranterer since late March (?) and feel your frustration! If everyone wears a mask, they keep at least some of their C19 in the mask, thereby reducing the amount that is in the air and on surfaces...lower viral load for others.

If masks cause health problems, why don't people like surgeons always have health issues from wearing masks much of the day?

 

[movingtarget]

Spain is first western European country to pass 1m Covid cases

Government considers curfew as political rows threaten efforts to control coronavirus

www.theguardian.com

 

[djpbaltimore]

More Groundhog day stuff tonight. We are being told that cases are up because testing is up. It is so hard to believe that this is still the message given to people in mid October.

 

[Unchained]

There is a theory in American bike racing,w 50% of everything consisting of office park or pancake flat ,4 corner crits..the theory is ..stay in forth and then sprint past everyone for a win in the end..sounds pretty easy right? Nothing complicated..just a couple of distinct acts..
Covid was laid out exactly the same..the winning plan..test everyone,identify who is sick and who is not,treat the sick,repeat the testing for both groups and work double time to avoid testing positive...
we are seeing that there are some that speak of complicated whatever for no reason..as Americans..let's take a deep breath and start over..doing only the basics..and by that we could start with..
For 3-4 weeks care completely w protecting others..things will probably work out

 

[Cookster15]

For 3-4 weeks care completely w protecting others..things will probably work out

I think that is basically lockdown right - for 3-4 weeks and hope that helps clean up the problem in America? This worked in my country (Australia) earlier in the year after the initial surge, then again in the state of Victoria. But this was/is disastrous for jobs and the economy. Our government implemented wage subsidies and other measures to support the economy but this isn't economically sustainable indefinitely.

Yes I know lives beat jobs but those who are not infected, even in America, are the lions share and these people also vote and pay taxes. So I guess the solution is kind of complicated? What would help everyone is a vaccine, obviously a properly tested and trialed vaccine.

 

[yaco]

Australia has shot itself in the foot with their irrational fear of COVID19 - They refuse to allow international students back into the country which is crazy as it drains the economy and causing unnecessary job cuts - Even COVID infested countries are welcoming back international students - Australian is suffering from a 'small village' mentality.

 

[Unchained]

I don't know complicated solutions to problems with 10s of thousands if not millions of variables but..some universities in the US are going to fantastic feats of science to measure and react to variables on their campuses. With thousands of tests being done and a level of pay attention to detail that is completely absent in the general population of the United States.
Illinois and Wisconsin..will be immediate test cases w hospital admissions rising right at capacity levels.
The Dakotas will also present challenges because of vast areas and most comprehensive hospital settings only in large towns which are few and far between.
there is but yet another storm brewing in S.Cal. San Diego for example has lots of tourism..so places like the San Diego Zoo, Sea World and Legoland are furious about the states reopening plans..a little North you have what people condo Los Angeles..there is a ton of stuff..Venice beach,Santa Monica pier and then the bigger stuff..Disneyland, Magic Mountain,Universal studios,Knottsberry farm,and lots of others all to remain closed..so everything got slammed from no summer cash and now Halloween is a bust..and school breaks like Thanksgiving,Christmas and New year's..look like big zeros..
All that is bad, but in SCal and California in general,education is a huge industry..in San Diego there are tons of foreign students paying full pop..and LA..within the UC system is expensive and schools like USC and UCLA get big revenue from foreign students, all the way up the state and San Francisco has enormous foreign student population..
I see just the billions lost in S.Cal for restrictions on Mexico -US trade and tourism but state wide the bank balance and credit statements must look really really scary on a grand scale.
In a strange local turn..Sea World was reporting improvement after the whales in captivity controversy that really blasted their business model..it will be interesting to see what the future looks like for them..
If all our movie theaters are closed,and the only concerts are Kid Rock, 3 doors down and Ted Nugent..I think that the government should make a different priority list!!!
I would not mind being in a bubble to see Foo fighters or Miley Cyrus..I will settle for Bastille..but if all of it can get bubbled to Laguna Seca or Circuit of the Americas..so I can drink,eat watch racing and here loud live music I would consider the pandemic workable..right now..not so much..
I have considered the additional shame to my family if I make the news for getting in a police standoff about reopening my favorite Chinese food restaurant..I guess that there could be worse legacies..you remember that guy shooting in the air yelling about spicy chicken chow fun..the government is really pushing my buttons

 

[movingtarget]

Australia has shot itself in the foot with their irrational fear of COVID19 - They refuse to allow international students back into the country which is crazy as it drains the economy and causing unnecessary job cuts - Even COVID infested countries are welcoming back international students - Australian is suffering from a 'small village' mentality.

Interesting as China is actively trying to make Australia a small village and probably dosing many of those students with ridiculous propaganda anyway. China is doing it's best to effect the Australian economy it seems as an example to other trade partners who don't agree with their politics and are outspoken about it. Last time I counted about six industries so far have been targeted. Cotton, wine, coal, and steel among them.

 

[Cookster15]

Australia has shot itself in the foot with their irrational fear of COVID19 - They refuse to allow international students back into the country which is crazy as it drains the economy and causing unnecessary job cuts - Even COVID infested countries are welcoming back international students - Australian is suffering from a 'small village' mentality.

Irrational fear? In America the virus has killed over 227,000 people to date. Globally over 1.1 Million have died.

If you want genuine examples of small village mentality look at the state of Western Australia. Remote, very few international arrivals compared to Sydney for example. But this state has closed its its internal borders to even interstate travelers from the rest of the country. I am in NSW and I can't travel to Perth.

How do you think the virus came to Australia? Foreign students returning from China was one source. I work in Sydney near a University with a large number of Chinese students. This area of Sydney was a known hotspot for Covid-19 when this all started. The students frequent a large shopping centre - the perfect place to spread the infection.

As for China itself, I am aware of people living there with businesses and they are still struggling due to Covid-19 restrictions.

The reason Australia did well other than geographical isolation was they acted quickly. I know you have argued otherwise but the stats don't lie. Take away the state of Victoria and you cannot deny that Australia did a great job after the initial surge.

 

[Cookster15]

Interesting as China is actively trying to make Australia a small village and probably dosing many of those students with ridiculous propaganda anyway. China is doing it's best to effect the Australian economy it seems as an example to other trade partners who don't agree with their politics and are outspoken about it. Last time I counted about six industries so far have been targeted. Cotton, wine, coal, and steel among them.

Yes. China is upset that Australia led the international calls for an independent inquiry into Covid-19 and side with America. So like bully they attempt to restrict purchases of our commodities and discourage their students from studying here - a $20bil + industry. China's tactics won't work it just pushes Australia closer to America who don't treat us so disrespectfully. I won't go further as politics is forbidden.

 

[yaco]

Interesting as China is actively trying to make Australia a small village and probably dosing many of those students with ridiculous propaganda anyway. China is doing it's best to effect the Australian economy it seems as an example to other trade partners who don't agree with their politics and are outspoken about it. Last time I counted about six industries so far have been targeted. Cotton, wine, coal, and steel among them.

Your answer only reinforces my phrase 'small village' mentality - Australia receives international students from a variety of countries of which China is one of the biggest cohorts - China has done such a good job of its propaganda that their students arrive in droves to attend Australian educational institutions. Can you give me a justifiable reason why Australia is closing their borders to this cohort at the cost of countless jobs and the diminishing of Higher Universities - Bear in mind, China is no better as it still has bans on international students studying in their jurisdiction, though this is a much smaller share of the overall market and as part of their GDP - Anyway, Australia is still in negotiations to hold upcoming international sporting events, although some are no certainty to happen because of quarantine requirements.

 

[yaco]

Irrational fear? In America the virus has killed over 227,000 people to date. Globally over 1.1 Million have died.

If you want genuine examples of small village mentality look at the state of Western Australia. Remote, very few international arrivals compared to Sydney for example. But this state has closed its its internal borders to even interstate travelers from the rest of the country. I am in NSW and I can't travel to Perth.

How do you think the virus came to Australia? Foreign students returning from China was one source. I work in Sydney near a University with a large number of Chinese students. This area of Sydney was a known hotspot for Covid-19 when this all started. The students frequent a large shopping centre - the perfect place to spread the infection.

As for China itself, I am aware of people living there with businesses and they are still struggling due to Covid-19 restrictions.

The reason Australia did well other than geographical isolation was they acted quickly. I know you have argued otherwise but the stats don't lie. Take away the state of Victoria and you cannot deny that Australia did a great job after the initial surge.

At the end of the day, Australia for an unknown reason has a lack of confidence in their ability to bring people into the country and hen follow the protocols of testing, quarantining etc to allow overseas students to return to their study - And China is no better with their restrictions on international students, though it has less of an effect on their economy - Anyway both countries have been left behind and will be less attractive destinations for students in the immediate future - I am fully aware of how politician's in Australia have played politics with their state borders which again is costing people jobs - Finally, the one way travel bubble with New Zealand is a joke because there is no COVID testing of arrivals either pre-flight or post flight.

 

[yaco]

Yes. China is upset that Australia led the international calls for an independent inquiry into Covid-19 and side with America. So like bully they attempt to restrict purchases of our commodities and discourage their students from studying here - a $20bil + industry. China's tactics won't work it just pushes Australia closer to America who don't treat us so disrespectfully. I won't go further as politics is forbidden.

China is so successful at intimidating their students from studying in Australia that enrolments from this cohort have increased from 155000 in 2010 to 260,000 in 2019 - This hardly supports your assertion - Anyway total number of international students enrolling in Aussie institutes will undoubtedly decrease from 2021 because of the Government's treatment of this sector.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I would really like to see more heat applied to the decision making of college administrators. So much of their decisions seem rooted in their own best interest and not their students or communities. Oh, by the way, homecoming football game at UW on Friday night right smack in the middle of one of the biggest outbreaks in the country. But rest assured, they asked the students to watch the game at home alone.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1319311917639520256

View: https://twitter.com/Laurie_Garrett/status/1319311917639520256

 

[Cookster15]

China is so successful at intimidating their students from studying in Australia that enrolments from this cohort have increased from 155000 in 2010 to 260,000 in 2019 - This hardly supports your assertion - Anyway total number of international students enrolling in Aussie institutes will undoubtedly decrease from 2021 because of the Government's treatment of this sector.

Actually it does support my assertion and if you do some quick web searches you will get plenty of articles on this. Covid-19 only became an issue in 2020.

 

[Keram]

So mild lockdown in Slovakia. What does it mean. Basically lockdown from 5:00 to 1:00 (yes four hours there is no lockdown). You can go to work, groceries, drugstore, doctor, car service, nature, with dog a d some other things. There is still open economics. They dont close additional industry, service or shop. So basically bookstore can be open but customers are not allowed to go there to buy books. Catch 22 to me. There will be mass testing as well with antigen tests. This weekend 4 countys with most cases. About 200k people and next two weekends whole country. Oh, one more thing. Testing is optional but people without negative tests will be in quarantine and people without test dont get any money from sick absence. It is interesting for observer but not when you live this chaos.

 

[Unchained]

I write this from a memory, but I saw a show about Asian students studying abroad..and the young people I saw,Korea,India and China based said that they preferred to study in the US,so given the foreign student outlook in the US..and Covid complications..I could certainly see where places like England,Australia and Canada would immediately become new destinations if much of all of your intense language preparation was geared for English..
I personally over these last @2 months have gained confidence and respect for many institutions of higher education here in the US..yes Covid presents huge hurdles,but Covid also has the value of many expensive schools under intense revaluation..not cracking on anybody but..students and their families better be able to see a mountain size difference from University of Phoenix - online to UCLA emergency remote learning,and if Covid knocks the legs out from under the college experience..again that experience has a value..college w no parties,sports or campus life is not the same..and it should not be $20,000 a year

 

[Unchained]

And just to make things clear about Australia,dirty diseased Americans..on one of my very first shipboard assignments..I flew from the US to Australia..The Aussie authorities boarded the aircraft and fumigated us!! With a sprayer and some kind of smoke machine thing..as Zappa would say a Telefunken U47!!
It was explained before they started that parasites,larva and bugs were trying to be abated ..some may have found measures to avoid invasive species a little crazy..but seeing what we have in the US..a crazy jumping in your boat fish, snakes as long as a school bus and almost as fat, Chinese wood boring beetles and a bunch more examples,we probably should be more careful about everything!!
I think that every 50,100 years for a pandemic cycle may be all the US can handle!!

 

[Koronin]

It appears Remdesivir has just been given full approval as a drug to treat Covid:

FDA approves Gilead's remdesivir as coronavirus treatment

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's leading infectious disease expert, has previously said the drug would set "a new standard of care" for Covid-19 patients.

www.cnbc.com

 

[movingtarget]

At the end of the day, Australia for an unknown reason has a lack of confidence in their ability to bring people into the country and hen follow the protocols of testing, quarantining etc to allow overseas students to return to their study - And China is no better with their restrictions on international students, though it has less of an effect on their economy - Anyway both countries have been left behind and will be less attractive destinations for students in the immediate future - I am fully aware of how politician's in Australia have played politics with their state borders which again is costing people jobs - Finally, the one way travel bubble with New Zealand is a joke because there is no COVID testing of arrivals either pre-flight or post flight.

I doubt there is a country in the world at the moment that normally attracts international students that isn't affected by Covid. Added to that their chances of some casual employment while studying have also plummeted. If China is left behind by tourism and studying it won't be for the same reasons as Australia and no one really knows how long this is going to last re the latest Covid developments in the EU and the USA and now Russia and other countries. Migration levels will also drop not to mention birth rates so socially there are going to be ongoing issues.

 

[Koronin]

I doubt there is a country in the world at the moment that normally attracts international students that isn't affected by Covid. Added to that their chances of some casual employment while studying have also plummeted. If China is left behind by tourism and studying it won't be for the same reasons as Australia and no one really knows how long this is going to last re the latest Covid developments in the EU and the USA and now Russia and other countries. Migration levels will also drop not to mention birth rates so socially there are going to be ongoing issues.

Birth rates were already dropping and this is will ensure they drop even more. There were people expecting/hoping for a baby boom that seem to be extremely unhappy.

 

[yaco]

Actually it does support my assertion and if you do some quick web searches you will get plenty of articles on this. Covid-19 only became an issue in 2020.

For a start I posted asking why Australia is not allowing international students to return to study? You are the one who erroneously included China in your argument which suggests something about your line of thinking - At the end of the day, Australia is damaging their higher education sector for no apparent gain or for no threat to public healthy - It is sheer madness and stupidity.

 

[yaco]

I doubt there is a country in the world at the moment that normally attracts international students that isn't affected by Covid. Added to that their chances of some casual employment while studying have also plummeted. If China is left behind by tourism and studying it won't be for the same reasons as Australia and no one really knows how long this is going to last re the latest Covid developments in the EU and the USA and now Russia and other countries. Migration levels will also drop not to mention birth rates so socially there are going to be ongoing issues.

This is my field of employment - Other countries which have high numbers of international students have welcomed back their students en-masse and have trusted their health protocols to protect students - Overseas students from Hong Kong and other Asian countries have fairly much returned to study at their overseas destinations after a break from March to September - Australia's higher education sector is already damaged and unless they open up at the beginning of 2021 they will lose another year of students - I'll also add OZ is having trouble organising international sporting events like the OZ Open Tennis and International cricket because of unrealistic health protocols.

 

[Cookster15]

For a start I posted asking why Australia is not allowing international students to return to study? You are the one who erroneously included China in your argument which suggests something about your line of thinking - At the end of the day, Australia is damaging their higher education sector for no apparent gain or for no threat to public healthy - It is sheer madness and stupidity.

I explained my reasoning so its not erroneous. Do a web search to verify what I wrote which is accurate - students brought the virus to our universities. But like the rest of this thread its the balance between the economy and health / lives. Even China opted for health/lives ahead of the economy. So I don't think its madness. But you are entitled to your opinion.

 

[Cookster15]

I'll also add OZ is having trouble organising international sporting events like the OZ Open Tennis and International cricket because of unrealistic health protocols.

The entire world is having trouble organizing international sporting events. It isn't just Australia.