Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Koronin]

I knew those mortgage payments couldn't be trusted! Do you mean suspended?

Opps, yes.

 

[Koronin]

In the US there still aren't close to enough tests or testing capabilities. There is a line of thought the virus has been in the US since earlier than early January. It's already known to be in most of the major cities. How the numbers in the US aren't currently over 1 million is likely due flat out due to lack of testing. They aren't even testing many people who appear to have either the flu or pneumonia. By the way there are members of the military who are infected.

 

[Nomad]

Some interesting articles:

What we know and don’t about the Americans who died from coronavirus

At least 23 of the Americans who have died were over 70.

www.google.com

Weiterleitungshinweis

www.google.com

 

[Mayomaniac]

That's just reactionary BS. Hiking and cycling on your own should always be allowed. Not doing any sport, not going outside, has proven adverse effects on body and mind. You don't pick up the virus in the woods or when no-one is around, and you don't risk spreading it, so it's totally irrational.

Riding your bike is allowed, it's explicitly said in the Q&A section on the homepage of the Italian ministry of health.

Source: http://www.salute.gov.it/portale/ne...=italiano&menu=notizie&p=dalministero&id=4224
Posso utilizzare la bicicletta?

La bicicletta è consentita per raggiungere la sede di lavoro, il luogo di residenza, nonché per raggiungere i negozi di prima necessità e per svolgere attività motoria. È consentito svolgere attività sportiva o motoria all’aperto anche in bicicletta, purché sia osservata una distanza di sicurezza interpersonale di almeno un metro.

It is allowed to ride your bike as a sporrt as long as you're keeping your distance and riding alone.

 

[Jagartrott]

Good - from the regulations posted earlier, it seemed that only going to work or to essential stores was allowed.
I don't know the situation in Spain, I hope they also do the same.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Good - from the regulations posted earlier, it seemed that only going to work or to essential stores was allowed.
I don't know the situation in Spain, I hope they also do the same.

I mean, you just need some common sense. I get that people going on group rides would be fined, but a solo ride is harmless.

 

[jmdirt]

I am not comparing/confusing C19 and influenza. I'm comparing peoples' reactions...

That being said, 60+K people died of the flu last flu season (in the USA), but people weren't hording TP and raiding supermarket shelves. Will the C19 death toll surpass the flu? Maybe . Is the shopping frenzy necessary?

 

[Koronin]

Apparently the situation in Spain is no riding outside is allowed due to threat if injury (not because of actually riding). Although this does seem to depend on how much local Civil Guard is enforcing this part of it.

 

[postmanhat]

The UK is going against the trend for now in it's response to the virus. Still no official legislation, and no community testing. Only those in hospital are being tested. I stand to be corrected, but the plan seems to be to develop 'herd immunity'. Based on the assumption that there will be no vaccine this calendar year, the virus isn't going anywhere and will be back next flu season. Basically, they're going to let as many people get it as possible, without endangering the vulnerable. So it is likely that soon the over 70s will be asked to go into isolation for as long as four months.

As you can imagine, there has been a LOT of criticism, including from the WHO. I detest this government, but I can sort of see the logic of it. Will be interesting to see how long they hold their nerve

 

[aphronesis]

I’m an epidemiologist. When I heard about Britain’s ‘herd immunity’ coronavirus plan, I thought it was satire | William Hanage

Vulnerable people should not be exposed to Covid-19 right now in the service of a hypothetical future, says William Hanage, a professor of the evolution and epidemiology of infectious disease at Harvard

www.theguardian.com

 

[Koronin]

The UK is going against the trend for now in it's response to the virus. Still no official legislation, and no community testing. Only those in hospital are being tested. I stand to be corrected, but the plan seems to be to develop 'herd immunity'. Based on the assumption that there will be no vaccine this calendar year, the virus isn't going anywhere and will be back next flu season. Basically, they're going to let as many people get it as possible, without endangering the vulnerable. So it is likely that soon the over 70s will be asked to go into isolation for as long as four months.

As you can imagine, there has been a LOT of criticism, including from the WHO. I detest this government, but I can sort of see the logic of it. Will be interesting to see how long they hold their nerve

It appears the US is somewhere in between the two lines of thought. We don't have enough tests so can't test, but are only shutting down certain things depending on the state you live in and even then keeping as much open as possible so people can keep working so they can pay their bills that won't pay themselves. State of Ohio is shutting down restaurants and bars, sort of. Dining in is shut down as of tonight, HOWEVER, deliver, carry out and drive thru may remain open.

 

[Nirvana]

That's just reactionary BS. Hiking and cycling on your own should always be allowed. Not doing any sport, not going outside, has proven adverse effects on body and mind. You don't pick up the virus in the woods or when no-one is around, and you don't risk spreading it, so it's totally irrational.

There are videos with dozens of people running and doing exercises in public parks, they are forced to block everything and denounce thousand of people otherwise there are always people that say "f* the police, f* the law, I do the f*** I want". And anyway the bigger issue is that you can crash or you can have an heart attack and there is no one to save you nor an intensive care place available if you need it.

 

[Nirvana]

Two days day ago they were even forced to close all the public parks because of people grouping there and acting like they were on the beach, who criticizes the measures IMHO underrates a lot the level of idiocy of a lot of people (especially young ones that then go home and infect the grandparents).

 

[djpbaltimore]

Interesting thread, particularly how they are describing the frequent cause of death: myocarditis.

ETA: quite possible this was not genuine. Deleted the link.

 

[postmanhat]

Nightmarish government document leaked by The Guardian

Up to 80% will be infected

Up to 7.9m hospitalised

Deaths possibly in the hundreds of thousands

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...il-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

Any other countries looking at these sort of figures?

 

[Ranagazoo]

Am I missing something here with this 'herd mentality' logic? Practically every other country in Europe, and many all over the world, are closing schools and public gatherings to try and contain the virus. China have gone from thousands of cases a day to almost none by keeping everyone at home.

And yet the UK gvmt are basically saying 'oh well we're all getting infected eventually, nothing we can do about it'. Madness. Containing the virus will only work if every country is on the same wavelength.

 

[Nirvana]

Italy data as of 17:00 today:

*Tested 124.899 (+15.729).
*Total cases 24.747 (+3.590).
*Infected at the moment 20.603 (+2.853).
*Recovered 2.335 (+369).
*Deaths 1.809 (+368).
*In intensive care at the moment 1.672 (+154).


Lombardia alone:

*Tested 40.369 (+3.231).
*Total cases 13.272 (+1.587).
*Infected at the moment 10.043 (+984).
*Recovered 2.011 (+351).
*Deaths 1.218 (+252).
*In intensive care at the moment 767 (+35).

*Note that the intensive care number rise in Lombardia is due to new places created and it isn't the real number that need intensive care that is bigger. And also the number of recovered could be bigger than the real because are sending home people not in severe contitions to free beds, you can notice also in the table that the recovered column now is called "dimessi/guariti" not only "guariti".


Full data here: http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_14_file.pdf

 

[Koronin]

I'm guessing this means they aren't testing people whom they are sending home even if they are recovering and not fully recovered?

 

[Sestriere]

I looked a bit at some numbers and made a graphic that shows how it evolved in each country after they hit 1,000 confirmed chases.

It looks like the USA, France and Switzerland are going to end up like Italy, Germany even worse and Spain looks like a real desaster, a total collapse of the whole health care system seem really plausible.

I think it's very likely that there were already many thousand cases in Italy when the outbreak was first noticed. People have developed tools to calculate the actual number of cases using the number of deaths and an assumed mortality rate (which is a big variable at this point in time) and data gathered from the Hubei outbreak.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

This author calculates between 24,000 and 140,000 infections in France for the 10.03. The official count of confirmed cases was roughly 1500 at that time. For Italy it's even more drastic. A couple of days after the outbreak was noticed for example, there were 17 deaths and 229 confirmed cases (25.02). With a mortality rate of 0.87 % (based on South Korea, unfortunately seems unreachable for Italy right now) you get around 13,500 cases for that very date! With a more realistic mortality of 3 % you still get 4000 cases when 229 were only officially reported.

Germany reported today around 5000 cases with 12 deaths. With South Koreas mortality this yields around 10,000 real cases as of today. So the number of reported cases seems to much better indicate the actual number of cases compared to Italy. This is why I think that the graph you plotted is misleading. Countries with high case numbers relative to deaths like Norway, Switzerland and Germany probably have a better understanding of the situation in their countries and could be better off since they applied strict measures to limit public life earlier - even though purely looking at (official) case numbers this may not seem to be the case.

All of this of course assumes that the reported deaths are based on the same standards.
Lastly, using the same spreadsheet than above, Italy's true case numbers are likely to be around 400,000 at the moment.

Edit: All the numbers above are based on the assumption that the number of true cases are growing exponentially. For the most recent numbers there is reason to believe that this is not the case anymore for places where significant restrictions to public life have been put into place (Reported cases will likely grow further for two weeks). This is based on experiences from the Hubei outbreak. Italy case numbers are thus likely to be lower than 400,000 but still over 100,000.

 

[Nirvana]

I'm guessing this means they aren't testing people whom they are sending home even if they are recovering and not fully recovered?

No, are people tested but with symptoms not severe enough to need hospitalization to survive. As far i know the ones at home are strictly controlled and isolated until they are negative.

 

[Nirvana]

Cases and deaths in some other countries:

*China 80.849 cases (+5) and 3.199 deaths.
*Korea 8.162 cases (+76) and 75 deaths (+3).
*Spain 7.843 cases (+1.452) and 292 deaths (+96).
*France 5.423 cases (+924) and 127 deaths (+36).
*Switzerland 2.217 cases (+842) and 14 deaths (+1).
*UK 1.391 cases (+251) and 35 deaths (+14).
*Norway 1.254 cases (+145) and 3 deaths.
*Netherlands 1.135 cases (+176) and 20 deaths (+8).
*Sweden 1.040 cases (+79) and 3 deaths (+1).
*Belgium 886 cases (+197) and 4 deaths.
*Denmark 864 cases (+28) and 2 deaths (+1).
*Austria 860 cases (+205) and 1 death.
*Malaysia 428 cases (+190).
*Qatar 401 cases (+64).

 

[Nirvana]

Daily increase rate during the week:

Italy
Mon +24%
Tue +11%
Wed +23%
Thu +21%
Fri +17%
Sat +20%
Sun +20%

Spain
Mon +83%
Tue +37%
Wed +33%
Thu +38%
Fri +66%
Sat +22%
Sun +22%

France
Mon +25%
Tue +26%
Wed +28%
Thu +26%
Fri +28%
Sat +23%
Sun +20%

Germany
Mon +31%
Tue +17%
Wed +21%
Thu +51%
Fri +29%
Sat +24%
Sun +27%

Switzerland
Mon +5,4%
Tue +31%
Wed +34%
Thu +33%
Fri +32%
Sat +19%
Sun +63%

United Kingdom
Mon +18%
Tue +16%
Wed +22%
Thu +29%
Fri +35%
Sat +43%
Sun +20%

Norway
Mon +12%
Tue +48%
Wed +77%
Thu +27%
Fri +56%
Sat +12%
Sun +13%

Netherlands
Mon +22%
Tue +19%
Wed +32%
Thu +22%
Fri +31%
Sat +19%
Sun +18%

Belgium
Mon +20%
Tue +12%
Wed +18%
Thu +27%
Fri +39%
Sat +23%
Sun +29%

 

[42x16ss]

Am I missing something here with this 'herd mentality' logic? Practically every other country in Europe, and many all over the world, are closing schools and public gatherings to try and contain the virus. China have gone from thousands of cases a day to almost none by keeping everyone at home.

And yet the UK gvmt are basically saying 'oh well we're all getting infected eventually, nothing we can do about it'. Madness. Containing the virus will only work if every country is on the same wavelength.

Australia is the same. Panicking and points scoring from our conservative government, yet schools and universities remain open and the first round of the National Rugby League was going to go ahead with full crowds until the league itself decided to do the right thing. The Prime Minister only decided not to go to his team's first match because of "how it will be misinterpreted" - direct quote - not because of any safety issues. They're also refusing to brief the opposition on plans and next steps to be taken.

Meanwhile there's stuff like this going on:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVHYTdGUAZM

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zm51HzSOYUw

 

[Nomad]

Cases and deaths in some other countries:

*China 80.849 cases (+5) and 3.199 deaths.
*Korea 8.162 cases (+76) and 75 deaths (+3).
*Spain 7.843 cases (+1.452) and 292 deaths (+96).
*France 5.423 cases (+924) and 127 deaths (+36).
*Switzerland 2.217 cases (+842) and 14 deaths (+1).
*UK 1.391 cases (+251) and 35 deaths (+14).
*Norway 1.254 cases (+145) and 3 deaths.
*Netherlands 1.135 cases (+176) and 20 deaths (+8).
*Sweden 1.040 cases (+79) and 3 deaths (+1).
*Belgium 886 cases (+197) and 4 deaths.
*Denmark 864 cases (+28) and 2 deaths (+1).
*Austria 860 cases (+205) and 1 death.
*Malaysia 428 cases (+190).
*Qatar 401 cases (+64).

Interesting. However, when looking at the situation in Russia & India things get very peculiar. Russia: only 63 cases as of 03/15 - no deaths & no critical/serious cases. Not a small country by any stretch of the imagination - 144 mil. No draconian lockdowns and school attendance is optional starting this week.

Coronavirus in Russia: The Latest News | Feb. 24 - The Moscow Times

Russia has confirmed 18,315,292 cases of coronavirus and 378,784 deaths, according to the national coronavirus information center. Russia’s total excess fatality count since the start of the coronavirus pandemic is at least 995,000. Under half the population is fully vaccinated.

www.themoscowtimes.com

India, a massive country of 1.2+ billion, is reporting as of 3/15 only 144 cases and 2 deaths with no one currently critical/serious. No lockdowns either.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 124,264,815 Cases and 2,734,674 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

 

[Merckx index]

WTF is this toilet paper madness? All I can guess is people want to use it in lieu of tissue (already sold out?) if they start blowing their noses and coughing up phlegm. For its nominal use, what's the big deal? You can clean out your anus with soap and water if you have to. In fact, that's actually a healthier way to do it. Where are people's priorities? This is no time to worry about convenience.

when looking at the situation in Russia & India things get very peculiar. Russia: only 63 cases as of 03/15 - no deaths & no critical/serious cases. Not a small country by any stretch of the imagination - 144 mil. No draconian lockdowns and school attendance is optional starting this week.

India, a massive country of 1.2+ billion, is reporting as of 3/15 only 144 cases and 2 deaths with no one currently critical/serious. No lockdowns either.

And Japan continues with relatively slow increase in cases.