Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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WTF is this toilet paper madness? All I can guess is people want to use it in lieu of tissue (already sold out?) if they start blowing their noses and coughing up phlegm. For its nominal use, what's the big deal? You can clean out your anus with soap and water if you have to. In fact, that's actually a healthier way to do it. Where are people's priorities? This is no time to worry about convenience.


You're out of tissue as well? Stores around here still had plenty of that on Saturday (had to go pick up a prescription). All sold out of toilet paper everywhere, but plenty of tissue. Thanks to the weather going warm, cold, warm, cold my sinuses are acting up again. There also seems to be a major run on paper towels as well, although not fully sold out. The other one I can't figure out is the same one I can't figure out for hoarding before hurricanes. Why are people hoarding milk? It has a short life span (in case of hurricanes it doesn't last when the power goes out).
 
WTF is this toilet paper madness? All I can guess is people want to use it in lieu of tissue (already sold out?) if they start blowing their noses and coughing up phlegm. For its nominal use, what's the big deal? You can clean out your anus with soap and water if you have to. In fact, that's actually a healthier way to do it. Where are people's priorities? This is no time to worry about convenience.





And Japan continues with relatively slow increase in cases.

Thank God someone else in the world realises that soap and water is the cleanest and most healthiest way to clean your anus.

Posted a few days ago that Japan is only testing if you have a temperature of 37.5+ for four days.
 
I am not comparing/confusing C19 and influenza. I'm comparing peoples' reactions...

That being said, 60+K people died of the flu last flu season (in the USA), but people weren't hording TP and raiding supermarket shelves. Will the C19 death toll surpass the flu? Maybe . Is the shopping frenzy necessary?

60,000 sounds a lot, in the USA alone. At least I am surprised by this figure.

Just doing some casual googling brings me to this, and yeah, in the 2018-19 flu season, 34,000 people died from it in America.

Yet I have also read that the common flu has a mortality rare of 0.1%, compared to CV of 3.4% (this figure could also rise).

The answer is probably somewhere in-between these two suggestions of points (that the flu also kills people so we shouldn't treat CV much differently vs. CV is a completely different beast and quantity of life is more important than quality).

Take a look a this brief article of statistics and graph: https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/age-at-death

Again from rather random googling, it tallies the total deaths of Australians in 2017. Why is this at all relevant? Well, perhaps it isn't greatly relevant, or perhaps it is, but it probably isn't completely irrelevant. For it makes the point that huge numbers of humans die all the time (well, we have a population of over 7 billion), and especially so, huge numbers of the elderly. Nothing at all to do with pandemics. The older that you get, the less likely that you are to wake up the next morning.

In 2017 roughly 160,000 people died in Australia (our population is not even 10% of the USA), and with 66% of those deaths being people over 75; that's roughly 105,000.

Think about the way that the media influences us: "Today 50 people died from the corona virus." Mass panic and determination to do everything possible to live for as long as possible, regardless of quality of life (yes, generally things such as concerts and sporting events to add to quality, for participants and fans). Imagine if they announced, "this year alone, we lost more than onehundred thousand of our loved ones; we must do something to reduce this!"

This means that in Australia, roughly 290 people over the age of 75, die every day. That's a LOT. But it is not as dramatic as that sounds. It is simply due to the large population that we have (both in Australia and more so in the wider world). But you can see how statistics can be used to scare people. 252 people (I assume mostly elderly) died in a single day in Lombardy recently, directly from CV. Okay, so we can already see that this is far more serious than just dying coincidentally from old age (this is a much smaller region than Australia, though does have a population of 10 million), and more serious than the common flu. But the thought process of most humans that are hit with such news, are probably still overrating the severity. Because there were probably really bad 'common' flu days in other recent seasons, where 50-100 people in a region or country died. But because that isn't as serious, and because they weren't killed by something with a fancy name, everyone continued to live on, 100% as normal, which is hypocritical to living 80% abnormally today; both sides can be seen as hypocritical.

Because where do you draw the line? Although there are vaccines for common flues, are they 100% effective? No, and just how effective? If mass gatherings are virtually guaranteed to spread anything from the common flu to CV, and if we do mainly care about quantity of life over quality of life, then shouldn't there be no sporting events or concerts during every flu (Winter) season?

We also don't know how often another CV type of virus will be born. It could become a rather regular thing. We are all going to die, and unfortunately the elderly are all going to die sooner (CV or not). In the end much of the question will be; quantity of life of the elderly vs. quality of life of the young/er.

A two month lockdown of 'living' gives the edge to the elderly, and the more that I've thought about this, it gives them a clear edge. This is not the common cold. And two months may well be enough to beat this thing. However, the longer that it drags on for, the more that such a question would become relevant. For if what you do in your life isn't at all important - or of value/meaning, at least to the individual - then what is the point of breathing in the first place?
 
At this point I fear what will happen when the virus is either under control or all around. When something like a "normal" life should start again. I fear the political consequences. Right now most people are like "we are in this together", but I can't imagine it will stay like that. There will probably be a fight over who is responsible, who needs to pay and so on. This is not the place to become political, but right now that's the threat I fear almost the most.
 
Thank God someone else in the world realises that soap and water is the cleanest and most healthiest way to clean your anus.

I don't know the situation there now, but when I travelled in the mid-East many years ago, not only was that standard procedure, but instead of flush toilets, there was a hole in the floor that you squatted over. That may seem primitive to Westerners, but again, squatting as opposed to sitting on a toilet is also healthier. It works the diaphragm muscles more thoroughly. Not to mention that a flush toilet wastes a lot of water. I have to confess that one of the things I like about camping is shitting in the woods. It definitely feels better than sitting on a toilet.

Meanwhile, back to our normal programming...:)
 
We're animals and have evolved as such. Many thinks that we think are cultured are not needed to stay healthy. I therefore don't think you need to wash your behind with soap to have better health. In fact, it may have adverse effects, just like washing your hair everyday may lead to more greasy hair, for instance. Or being too clean around the house may lead to a higher chance of your children developing allergies. Also, using water instead of paper may spread more droplets in the air and everywhere on the floor. Warm water also requires plenty of energy. Of course, Americans apparently prefer very soft paper, which is leading to clear-cuts of boreal forest in Canada.

But I may be going off topic a bit now.
 
I can't get access to the paper but this is good news if true.
This paper investigates how air temperature and humidity influence the transmission of COVID-19. After estimating the serial interval of COVID-19 from 105 pairs of the virus carrier and the infected, we calculate the daily effective reproductive number, R, for each of all 100 Chinese cities with more than 40 cases. Using the daily R values from January 21 to 23, 2020 as proxies of non-intervened transmission intensity, we find, under a linear regression framework for 100 Chinese cities, high temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities. One degree Celsius increase in temperature and one percent increase in relative humidity lower R by 0.0383 and 0.0224, respectively. This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3551767
 
Let's get to the bottom of this:

It's the toxic air of China that was the primary problem contributing to the complications from the coronavirus.

Any competent pulmonologist will tell you chronic exposure to highly toxic air = respiratory pathologies and prone to serious complications from viral & bacterial respiratory infections (such as influenza).

Wuhan is a toxic air cesspool. In fact, China has of some worst toxic air in the world - air polloution was found to cause an average 1.1 million deaths annually!



Over 1 million deaths annually from toxic, deadly air vs the 3200 or so reported deaths from the coronavirus. Really? All that fuss by them over the coronavirus? Seems like they have their priorities all wrong.

And with the lockdown of the city we see this:


"Two months of pollution reduction “likely has saved the lives of 4,000 kids under 5 and 73,000 adults over 70 in China,” he writes on G-Feed, a blog maintained by seven scientists working on Global Food, Environment and Economic Dynamics."

“Even under these more conservative assumptions, the lives saved due to the pollution reductions are roughly 20x the number of lives that have been directly lost to the virus,” Burke writes, using statistics current on March 8."

The lives of 4000 young kids and 73,000 people over 70 saved vs 3200 deaths from the virus. And all that fuss by them over the coronavirus?

China never had an influenza crisis - they had a severe air pollution problem. And now they're back in business firing up the factories and polluting the air the citizens will be sucking up again by the gallon.

And interestingly, Northern Italy has a similar problem with toxic air:


And with the lockdown in Italy we see this:


Tehran is another city with some of the worst toxic air.
 
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Figure from the paper
I don't like that they use RH though, absolute humidity is independent of temperature, they should have picked that. There may be some other problems, like the dominance of cases in one region, but I haven't really looked into that.

5e6f981e70ff9.png
 
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I went to see a doctor today. I have had a "cough" for two weeks and it's not getting better but worse, hurting in my chest, disenabling me from sports, not letting me sleep etc. I took all the available medicine I could get, drank tons of tea, still... So I finally decided to call a doctor. In the first hours "my" doctor didn't answer the phone. Then there was a message "is on holiday until end of march". So I called another one, where I had once been - no answering the phone there, too. I did not want to just go there, as with Corona we are disencouraged to do so. So I called another one who said I should try Dr X. So I called Dr X. Dr X reluctantly took me as a patient, she saw me rather soon, I did not have to wait, as they were very eager to get me out of there (no fever, no contact to risk regions, but still, a "cough"). "Okay", she said, "your lungs are fine. So do now: cough." I said I couldn't (and couldn't), it felt like it was all tied in my chest, not loose. "Okay", she said annoyed, "sure it's not just panic?" :mad: Well even my lungs were fine, I am totally hoarse, but okay, she doesn't know what I sound like normally, maybe she thought that was my voice...
I asked her for antibiotics, which she gave me to get rid of me, I hope they work and I don't have to see a doctor any time soon. :confused:
 
Let's get to the bottom of this:

It's the toxic air of China that was the primary problem contributing to the complications from the coronavirus.

Any competent pulmonologist will tell you chronic exposure to highly toxic air = respiratory pathologies and prone to serious complications from viral & bacterial respiratory infections (such as influenza).

Wuhan is a toxic air cesspool. In fact, China has of some worst toxic air in the world - air polloution was found to cause an average 1.1 million deaths annually!



Over 1 million deaths annually from toxic, deadly air vs the 3200 or so reported deaths from the coronavirus. Really? All that fuss by them over the coronavirus? Seems like they have their priorities all wrong.

And with the lockdown of the city we see this:


"Two months of pollution reduction “likely has saved the lives of 4,000 kids under 5 and 73,000 adults over 70 in China,” he writes on G-Feed, a blog maintained by seven scientists working on Global Food, Environment and Economic Dynamics."

“Even under these more conservative assumptions, the lives saved due to the pollution reductions are roughly 20x the number of lives that have been directly lost to the virus,” Burke writes, using statistics current on March 8."

The lives of 4000 young kids and 73,000 people over 70 saved vs 3200 deaths from the virus. And all that fuss by them over the coronavirus?

China never had an influenza crisis - they had a severe air pollution problem. And now they're back in business firing up the factories and polluting the air the citizens will be sucking up again by the gallon.

And interestingly, Northern Italy has a similar problem with toxic air:


And with the lockdown in Italy we see this:


Tehran is another city with some of the worst toxic air.
Ah, the "look all those extreme measures were totally over the top, it wasn't all that bad in the end"-argument. Of course disregarding that without any containment in China, millions would be infected by now and hundreds of thousands dead since the healthcare system would have collapsed entirely.

Air pollution is a huge problem and should be tackled resolutely.
 
Ah, the "look all those extreme measures were totally over the top, it wasn't all that bad in the end"-argument. Of course disregarding that without any containment in China, millions would be infected by now and hundreds of thousands dead since the healthcare system would have collapsed entirely.

Air pollution is a huge problem and should be tackled resolutely.
The coronavirus is tackling that for us.

But really, it's the nature of exponential growth. The consequences of falling short are catastrophic, while if you're on top of something the measures you take will seem over the top to a LOT of people.
 
The coronavirus is tackling that for us.

But really, it's the nature of exponential growth. The consequences of falling short are catastrophic, while if you're on top of something the measures you take will seem over the top to a LOT of people.

Look at what happened in Italy, maybe the worst case scenario for all of us. On the 29th of February the situation was like today in the Netherlands, around 1100 cases and 29 deaths.
 
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The coronavirus is tackling that for us.

But really, it's the nature of exponential growth. The consequences of falling short are catastrophic, while if you're on top of something the measures you take will seem over the top to a LOT of people.
100% spot on. The Leo Szilard quote has been floating about today for that reason.

“If you want to succeed in the world, you don't have to be much cleverer than other people. You just have to be one day earlier.”
 
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We now have confirmation of one vaccine that started testing on humans in Seattle. Minimum time before it will be available, assuming all goes well, is 12 months.

Vaccines aren't gonna accomplish a thing as long as the spread is still exponential. I think the treatment protocols with antitretrovirals are much more important.

I'm keeping a tight eye on Italy in the next few weeks, if the spread keeps going exponentially there, anything but a total lockdown is a huge mistake.
 
Vaccines aren't gonna accomplish a thing as long as the spread is still exponential. I think the treatment protocols with antitretrovirals are much more important.

I'm keeping a tight eye on Italy in the next few weeks, if the spread keeps going exponentially there, anything but a total lockdown is a huge mistake.


The hope with treatments is 2-4 months. There appear to be a bunch in development. Also saw something (wish I could remember where) about testing of short term vaccines that will only last 2-3 months, but will at least get some protection and those are a lot closer than full vaccines are.
 
Over 1,400 new confirmed chases in Germany, they are now only 1,000 confirmed chases behind South Korea and they only closed their borders today and other radical measures still haven't been used.
I have the feeling that they made a big mistake.
True cases in Germany are probably much closer to official cases in Germany compared to Italy, Spain or France. At least I hope so.
 
There's this treatment in testing in Australia. The first half of the article is about the treatment and the testing for it. The 2nd part of the article is about the vaccine that is starting testing in Seattle: