Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[yaco]

Honestly, if every country takes extreme measures (i.e. shutting down all schools, restaurants, bars, concerts, strict self quarantine-particularly the elderly and sick obviously, closing down ski areas, sports events on any level, etc) and keeps those measures until Summer (say June 15) and things haven't slowed down or been contained and actually got worse, than you know this isn't just some media hype. There are various levels of concern that I see where I live.

It's worked in Hubei Province in just less than two months and they are starting to reopen businesses and schools - As a point of reference, Hong Kong two weeks ago repatriated 400 residents from the epicentre Wuhan and one person tested positive - The Chinese lockdown worked.

 

[search]

It's worked in Hubei Province in just less than two months and they are starting to reopen businesses and schools - As a point of reference, Hong Kong two weeks ago repatriated 400 residents from the epicentre Wuhan and one person tested positive - The Chinese lockdown worked.

where did you read that? A friend of mine lives in Kunming, 1500 km away from Wuhan, and even there schools aren't open yet. And they had 1 new positive case only over the past three weeks, in a city of over 6 million inhabitants. Hubei is still almost completely locked down.

 

[djpbaltimore]

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. Per person, the transmission rate of undocumented infections was 55% of documented infections ([46%–62%]), yet, due to their greater numbers, undocumented infections were the infection source for 79% of documented cases. These findings explain the rapid geographic spread of SARS-CoV2 and indicate containment of this virus will be particularly challenging.

These undocumented infections often experience mild, limited or no symptoms and hence go unrecognized, and, depending on their contagiousness and numbers, can expose a far greater portion of the population to virus than would otherwise occur.

Yikes. People who think half measures will stop this pandemic should read this paper. It is going to take even harsher measures IMO. If this modeling is accurate, I guess the good news is that this would mean that the virus is much less deadly than is widely understood at the moment.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1239553275546013696

View: https://twitter.com/ScienceMagazine/status/1239553275546013696

 

[Red Rick]

Aand we just outdieded the entire German epidemic in 1 day. 292 infections up to 1705, 19 deaths, up to 43

 

[yaco]

where did you read that? A friend of mine lives in Kunming, 1500 km away from Wuhan, and even there schools aren't open yet. And they had 1 new positive case only over the past three weeks, in a city of over 6 million inhabitants. Hubei is still almost completely locked down.

There are multiple media sources which suggest that Hubei is gradually re-opening from it's lockdown - The real relevance of my post was to give an idea of how long it takes to get on top of the problem using draconian measures which is about two months - My post referring to one positive case was referring to 400 HK citizens who were repatriated from Wuhan two weeks ago and obviously tested by the HK authorities after being 6 weeks in lockdown - Of course Hong Kong is next level when it comes to school closures - Closed from January 22 to April 20 and likely to continue to the end of June.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Aand we just outdieded the entire German epidemic in 1 day. 292 infections up to 1705, 19 deaths, up to 43

should have never held carnaval

 

[Nomad]

Honestly, if every country takes extreme measures (i.e. shutting down all schools, restaurants, bars, concerts, strict self quarantine-particularly the elderly and sick obviously, closing down ski areas, sports events on any level, etc) and keeps those measures until Summer (say June 15) and things haven't slowed down or been contained and actually got worse, than you know this isn't just some media hype. There are various levels of concern that I see where I live.

Okay...but how long do you keep people locked down for? A month? Two months? Late July or August? (as Trump says for how long the CV will be around for). Draw numbers out of a hat? And if cases go down after a lockdown, do you release the public for awhile and see what happens as they get back on with their lives? If despite the lockdown, and cases continue to climb are we locked down indefinitely? And according to the experts, a vaccine wouldn't be ready for another 12-18 months - so do the governments lockdown people for that duration? (given the "curve hasn't flattened").

SF has already gone to a 24 hr enforceable lockdown for 3 weeks. Other major cities may follow. Where I live (Colorado), we have a 30 day self-quartine order. All restaurants, pubs, theatres, ski resorts, gyms, etc., were ordered to close. Will it work for Colorado? - I guess time will only only tell.

But why this draconian lockdown mentality? Hasn't the U.S. Government (and other governments for that matter) looked at the South Korean model? The "trace, test and treat" protocol. No lockdown and only 81 deaths so far and currently 59 listed as critical or serious. Their fatality rate is 0.7% vs the global rate of 3.4%.

South Korea Sees Coronavirus Slowdown—Without A Lockdown, But With Nearly 250,000 Tests

Topline: South Korea reported more recoveries from coronavirus on Friday than new infections for the first time since the outbreak began in January and without any lockdowns—but through almost 250,000 virus tests, compared to reportedly fewer than 14,000 in the United States.

www.google.com

Weiterleitungshinweis

I have a contact in S. Korea who says things are going pretty well as people try to maintain their normal lives - no insane draconian lockdowns like in this country and others.

I can already hear the retaliation: "but...but...look at Italy...look at Spain...look at Iran...they should have all locked down much, much earlier....we're going to end up just like them if we don't lockdown right now."

Well...without starting a verbal brawl here I emphatically say screw-that mentality!

Look at S. Korea, or Japan FFS!

 

[MartinGT]

Can we honestly believe anything that comes out of China media?

 

[Red Rick]

should have never held carnaval

Always hated it, never rated it.

 

[Red Rick]

Okay...but how long do you keep people locked down for? A month? Two months? Late July or August? (as Trump says for how long the CV will be around for). Draw numbers out of a hat? And if cases go down after a lockdown, do you release the public for awhile and see what happens as they get back on with their lives? If despite the lockdown, and cases continue to climb are we locked down indefinitely? And according to the experts, a vaccine wouldn't be ready for another 12-18 months - so do the governments lockdown people for that duration? (given the "curve hasn't flattened").

SF has already gone to a 24 hr enforceable lockdown for 3 weeks. Other major cities may follow. Where I live (Colorado), we have a 30 day self-quartine order. All restaurants, pubs, theatres, ski resorts, gyms, etc., were ordered to close. Will it work for Colorado? - I guess time will only only tell.

But why this draconian lockdown mentality? Hasn't the U.S. Government (and other governments for that matter) looked at the South Korean model? The "trace, test and treat" protocol. No lockdown and only 81 deaths so far and currently 59 listed as critical or serious.

South Korea Sees Coronavirus Slowdown—Without A Lockdown, But With Nearly 250,000 Tests

Topline: South Korea reported more recoveries from coronavirus on Friday than new infections for the first time since the outbreak began in January and without any lockdowns—but through almost 250,000 virus tests, compared to reportedly fewer than 14,000 in the United States.

www.google.com

Weiterleitungshinweis

I have a contact in S. Korea who says things are going pretty well as people try to maintain their normal lives - no insane draconian lockdowns like in this country and others.

I can already hear the retaliation: "but...but...look at Italy...look at Spain...look at Iran...they should have all locked down much, much earlier....we're going to end up just like them if we don't lockdown right now."

Well...without starting a verbal brawl here I emphatically say screw-that mentality!

Look at S. Korea, or Japan FFS!

South Korean model worked cause they started mass testing super early. USA probably has tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases waiting to happen which is a ticking time bomb.

 

[Nomad]

South Korean model worked cause they started mass testing super early. USA probably has tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases waiting to happen which is a ticking time bomb.

But I've also heard here from some of the experts that CV may been circulating in the U.S. as early as January - so what happen to those ticking time bombs?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Those ticking time bombs are about to go off. As pointed out above, without the capacity to aggressively test and do targeted lockdowns, draconian solutions for large swathes of the country are the only solution. And the USA does not have that testing capacity. Ergo...

Case in point. Not much fuse left on this one.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1239936179224686594

View: https://twitter.com/luisferre/status/1239936179224686594

 

[Red Rick]

Italy numbers seems to be steady. Last few days have been linear more so than exponential. Almost 3000 new cases today and 345 new casualties sadly.

Can somebody inform me if they're still increasing the amount of tests being done?

 

[aphronesis]

“Ironically, as economies shut down in response to the global spread of the virus, air quality is actually improving during the pandemic. Satellites have already measured the changes in China, where NASA tracking showed that emissions of nitrogen dioxide were down as much as 30 percent throughout February as the virus swept through the nation, and in Italy, where levels of the gas and other air pollutants similarly dipped as people stay inside to avoid infection.
Nitrogen dioxide, which is released when coal, oil, gas, and diesel are burned, is terrible for the lungs. In addition to being a climate pollutant, the chemical causes reduced lung function and increases wheezing, asthma attacks, inflammation of the airways, and hospitalizations. Nitrogen dioxide also harms the heart, driving up rates of heart attack, stroke, acute heart failure, and death from heart disease overall.”

2.2 Million People in the U.S. Could Die If Coronavirus Goes Unchecked

Exposure to air pollution could make the coronavirus particularly deadly for poor Americans.

theintercept.com

 

[Red Rick]

“Ironically, as economies shut down in response to the global spread of the virus, air quality is actually improving during the pandemic. Satellites have already measured the changes in China, where NASA tracking showed that emissions of nitrogen dioxide were down as much as 30 percent throughout February as the virus swept through the nation, and in Italy, where levels of the gas and other air pollutants similarly dipped as people stay inside to avoid infection.
Nitrogen dioxide, which is released when coal, oil, gas, and diesel are burned, is terrible for the lungs. In addition to being a climate pollutant, the chemical causes reduced lung function and increases wheezing, asthma attacks, inflammation of the airways, and hospitalizations. Nitrogen dioxide also harms the heart, driving up rates of heart attack, stroke, acute heart failure, and death from heart disease overall.”

2.2 Million People in the U.S. Could Die If Coronavirus Goes Unchecked

Exposure to air pollution could make the coronavirus particularly deadly for poor Americans.

theintercept.com

Don't get too gleefull about China. They're suspending environmental laws so they can 'catch up' on production. Ironically this might kill more Chinese due to pollution than the corona virus did, but obviously it's still better optics for them.

 

[aphronesis]

Oh, I’m not. It had more to do with effects. I’d read that elsewhere about the deregulation (and as long as the toxicity is containable, I don’t thing they mind treating the population as disposable). There’s speculation out there that other countries will seek/are seeking similar rollbacks.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Interesting contrarian viewpoint from a Stanford epidemiologist. Some good points, but also some key blindspots like his failure to meaningful examine the likely hospital shortages.

Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.
That huge range markedly affects how severe the pandemic is and what should be done. A population-wide case fatality rate of 0.05% is lower than seasonal influenza. If that is the true rate, locking down the world with potentially tremendous social and financial consequences may be totally irrational. It’s like an elephant being attacked by a house cat. Frustrated and trying to avoid the cat, the elephant accidentally jumps off a cliff and dies.

The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17...e-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

 

[Koronin]

But I've also heard here from some of the experts that CV may been circulating in the U.S. as early as January - so what happen to those ticking time bombs?

First known case in the US was mid January. There's some talk that the virus has been in the US since sometime in Dec. It's also a known fact there are people in Seattle that have had it and recovered without ever getting tested. This is due to one person who did find a way to get tested but had gotten the virus at a party and several others who were also at that party had the exact same symptoms, tested negative for flu, but couldn't get tested for the virus because they didn't meet the criteria.

The US is still dreadfully behind in testing. From what Gov Cuomo said today it sounds like the NY, NJ, Connecticut area is finally getting more testing there.

The interesting thing about the San Francisco shelter in place (which is what they are calling it instead of a lockdown) is they are actually telling people to go outside for a walk or ride your bike. Also interesting what is still opened. Although I am glad they decided that veterinarian services are considered essential.

An example of how little testing is in the US in NC it appears we have 1,300 total tests and about the only way to get one is to be hospitalized.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Even worse in Virginia. From the Gov's press conference today.

Oliver said about 300 to 400 tests are now available in Virginia, and the state has ordered and is expected to receive enough to “nearly double” the testing capacity on Tuesday. He expects Virginia to receive help from the federal government and will be “ramping up” testing capabilities in the days and weeks ahead.

This is ludicrous. DMV is home to three huge international airports.

 

[aphronesis]

This spreads responsibility around.....

Years of Austerity Weakened the Public Health Response to Coronavirus

Thanks to budget cuts, public health departments nationwide have eliminated 50,000 positions since 2008.

truthout.org

 

[Mayomaniac]

Germany had almost 2,100 new confirmed chases (now over 1,000 chases ahead of South Korea) and 9 new deaths today, Spain over 1,800 new chases and 191 new deaths. I still think that the Germany authorities have started acting too late.

 

[Jagartrott]

The Belgian government has just installed stricter rules: all 'non-essential' shops close, working from home or when 'social distancing' can be guaranteed, etc. etc. - but outdoor sports is not prohibited, it is even encouraged, as long as it is alone or with a housemate. That's fair. New cases here have been strangely stable the past 3 days, while a continued rise was expected since the first real measures have been implemented less than a week ago. Testing has not decreased. More people in hospital, but still only about 55 in intensive care (we have c. 1800-2000 IC beds). This number is rising, obviously, but we still have a decent buffer.

 

[Red Rick]

Germany had almost 2,100 new confirmed chases (now over 1,000 chases ahead of South Korea) and 9 new deaths today, Spain over 1,800 new chases and 191 new deaths. I still think that the Germany authorities have started acting too late.

World Cup victories are no longer the only reason for me to wish to be part of Germany.

But it seems to me the deaths are taking off everywhere.

I really wish we had the total amount of tests performed everywhere. Without that you can't frigging judge anything.

 

[Koronin]

Even worse in Virginia. From the Gov's press conference today.
This is ludicrous. DMV is home to three huge international airports.

I suspect a large portion of the NC tests are from LabCorp.

 

[Koronin]

World Cup victories are no longer the only reason for me to wish to be part of Germany.

But it seems to me the deaths are taking off everywhere.

I really wish we had the total amount of tests performed everywhere. Without that you can't frigging judge anything.

Well ignore US numbers for that because we still can't even test many people. The tests being done by the private labs (LabCorp and Quest) only have to make known positive tests. They don't have to prove numbers for total tests.