Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Mayomaniac]

So Austria has a rather low death rate, overall 8 people with over 1,600 confirmed cases. 4 seem to be the direct result of the virus, while the rest is related to the fact that they had the virus. With the lockdown and such a low mortality rate one could assume that they are actually testing most of the infected, as far as I know they have done around 12,000 tests until now, a decent amount for a rather small country.

 

[sir fly]

View: https://youtu.be/mcLgSD4PQS0

 

[Sestriere]

Merkel just addressed the nation. Many expected her to announce a complete lockdown similar to Italy or Spain. That didn't happen. She asked the people to take social distancing seriously and that everyone should look at themself to get through this crisis.
She seems extremely reluctant to order a complete lockdown for obvious reasons. But she also indicated that if the people would not behave even stronger measures will be taken.

 

[Ranagazoo]

Honestly, are you surprised because this? I have been surprised that so many people seemingly without any questions asked basically let themselves lock in. In Germany there is no lockdown yet and a large amount of people are calling for one. You may argue that it is necessary to prevent a catastrophe but it is still a major cut into the liberal rights that were fought for for many centuries. Have there ever been similar measures?
And have you thought about what will happen when the government decides that the lockdown has to be continued over the initial 4 weeks? It may be fun for a couple of days and a certain sense of "we're in this together" seems to be present. As long as you can farm favs and karma on social media by singing or playing tennis from the balcony it may be all well. But what happens when after four weeks of lockdown another four weeks are announced? I'm scared of that.

And again, everything I've written is independant of whether these measures are actually necessary and effective. Just my thoughts on how our society can deal with essential rights being taken away for an indefinite period of time.

It'll be longer than 4 weeks if people keep sneaking off on holidays! For me the worst part of self isolating is hearing about people going about their life as normal, going to the pub and socialising in large groups, spreading the virus further while me and my family are doing our best to avoid the outside world. Those people thinking they're too important to follow medical advice and stay at home are the ones keeping the virus spreading.

 

[Red Rick]

Kindly asking people to not do the stupid things is in itself a stupid thing for governemnts to do.

 

[Sestriere]

It'll be longer than 4 weeks if people keep sneaking off on holidays! For me the worst part of self isolating is hearing about people going about their life as normal, going to the pub and socialising in large groups, spreading the virus further while me and my family are doing our best to avoid the outside world. Those people thinking they're too important to follow medical advice and stay at home are the ones keeping the virus spreading.

Sorry to disappoint you, but it will be longer than 4 weeks regardless. It's a pandemic now. It will come back when measures are eased. How long can our society endure this?

 

[movingtarget]

Interesting...what do you think of the disparity between Iran & Iraq? Iran, 81 mil population, is imploding with 17,300 cases and 1,135 deaths. Their neighbors to the West, Iraq, 38 mil, only have 164 cases with "12" deaths reported as of today. Granted, Iraq has less than half the population of Iran, but this is a huge difference on how CV is impacting two countries in the same geographical region.

Don't know. Seems to be no shortage of anomalies at the moment. You have to wonder what is going on some of the third world countries. Iran was temporarily releasing prisoners to stop infections. If small populations in the Pacific Islands are getting infections no doubt it will soon be a global issue. A week ago only only about half the countries in the world reported infections.

 

[Merckx index]

Here are some data I'd been searching for. It's pretty well-established that the mortality rate is relatively low for younger people, but how about serious cases?

This study of the U.S. looked at proportions of different age groups that had to be hospitalized or put into intensive care. Even among those aged 20-44, 15-20% were hospitalized, and 2-4% in the ICU. The ICU rate may be as high as 10% for those 45-64. Only those younger than 20 seem to be at very low risk for hospitalization, with no ICU cases recorded. The data are a little imprecise, because of difficulties in tracking down all the records, but provide a fairly coherent picture.

The important point being, this is not just an old person's disease. Even people in the prime of life have a very significant risk of being hospitaiized, and the % in intensive care is comparable to the fatality rate of those 65-74.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm?s_cid=mm6912e2_w

Younger people are also at more risk if they have a chronic illness or other condition:

Among the 105 patients who had died in Italy as of March 4, two-thirds had three or more preexisting conditions. The most common was hypertension, followed by ischemic heart disease and diabetes mellitus. These chronic illnesses can leave organs degraded and more vulnerable to infection. Additionally, the treatments for these conditions can suppress the immune system, leaving the body susceptible to pathogens.

In a World Health Organization report on China’s outbreak, the case fatality rate in people who reported no chronic diseases was 1.4 percent, but it shot up in groups with these conditions: “13.2% for those with cardiovascular disease, 9.2% for diabetes, 8.4% for hypertension, 8.0% for chronic respiratory disease, and 7.6% for cancer.”

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/12/21173783/coronavirus-death-age-covid-19-elderly-seniors

 

[Jagartrott]

Some quite spectacular differences between men (uomini) and women (donne). Also, the age-related risk is very outspoken. Basically, under 50, you'd have to be very unlucky to die from this. Also, I'm guessing that those younger people dying suffered from one or more other health issues.

 

[Merckx index]

Some quite spectacular differences between men (uomini) and women (donne). Also, the age-related risk is very outspoken. Basically, under 50, you'd have to be very unlucky to die from this. Also, I'm guessing that those younger people dying suffered from one or more other health issues.

Do you have the link? Because we can't tell from those figures what the relative mortality rates are. It might be that some of the age and sex differences reflect differences in becoming infected. In fact, several studies, including the Diamond Princess, where we have the most reliable numbers, suggest that older people are more likely to become infected. So the higher death total would partly be a result of that, rather than just a higher rate of deaths/infections.

The size of the groups also matters. E.g., the number of 70-79 who died is about the same as the number of 80-89, but that's presumably because there are I would guess roughly twice as many people in the former group as the latter. Even more so wrt 90+.

Another thing to keep in mind is that any data from Italy are very incomplete, i.e., the vast majority of cases are not yet closed. This could affect results, e.g., older people likely die faster after infection than younger people, so a disproportionate number of deaths of younger people probably haven't been recorded.

 

[BlueRoads]

It'll be longer than 4 weeks if people keep sneaking off on holidays! For me the worst part of self isolating is hearing about people going about their life as normal, going to the pub and socialising in large groups, spreading the virus further while me and my family are doing our best to avoid the outside world. Those people thinking they're too important to follow medical advice and stay at home are the ones keeping the virus spreading.

Though I'm questioning some measures I'm actually rather self isolating already because I don't think I know better than the experts. Not that difficult for me, most of my work is done by sitting at home with my laptop and I'm not an extremely sociable person anyway. I had to cancel some workshops, the rest is quite easy to do. But in the past days, especially as my cold got better, a weird gap has opened up between what I see in the media and what I see and hear in my everyday life. Friends and family are like "once people realize it's only a flu...", "they are closing down the playgrounds, are they crazy?", "don't you wanna come over/ let's meet", while on the internet I see countries right next to us in complete lockdown. I'm like .

 

[Red Rick]

Some quite spectacular differences between men (uomini) and women (donne). Also, the age-related risk is very outspoken. Basically, under 50, you'd have to be very unlucky to die from this. Also, I'm guessing that those younger people dying suffered from one or more other health issues.

That graph isn't gonna look like this if hospitals get overrun like a mofo and triage gets really harsh

 

[Jagartrott]

Do you have the link? Because we can't tell from those figures what the relative mortality rates are. It might be that some of the age and sex differences reflect differences in becoming infected. In fact, several studies, including the Diamond Princess, where we have the most reliable numbers, suggest that older people are more likely to become infected. So the higher death total would partly be a result of that, rather than just a higher rate of deaths/infections.

The size of the groups also matters. E.g., the number of 70-79 who died is about the same as the number of 80-89, but that's presumably because there are I would guess roughly twice as many people in the former group as the latter. Even more so wrt 90+.

Another thing to keep in mind is that any data from Italy are very incomplete, i.e., the vast majority of cases are not yet closed. This could affect results, e.g., older people likely die faster after infection than younger people, so a disproportionate number of deaths of younger people probably haven't been recorded.

I think the numbers of infected cases are very unreliable, so I wouldn't draw conclusions from that. Cf. the gigantic difference between S-Korea (widespread testing) and Italy (limited testing, mostly severe cases). The number of dead and hospitalized people and their health, age, etc. are reliable though, so I'd focus on that. And yes, there may be a lag, but then, probably the younger and more active generation was infected first (spreading the disease to the less active/mobile part of the population).

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

 

[aphronesis]

Younger Adults Make Up Big Portion of Coronavirus Hospitalizations in U.S. (Published 2020)

New C.D.C. data shows that nearly 40 percent of patients sick enough to be hospitalized were age 20 to 54. But the risk of dying was significantly higher in older people.

www.nytimes.com

 

[GVFTA]

From a CNN article:

"We literally were down to under half a day's worth of personal protective equipment," Dr. Amy Compton-Phillips, the chief clinical officer and executive vice president of Providence St. Joseph Health, a system of more than 50 hospitals that provides services across seven US states, said Wednesday. "We've been virtually desperate, looking under every nook and cranny, trying to find the equipment we need. "
Typically, she says, those hospitals together go through 250,000 masks a year. In three months this year, a single hospital has gone through the same amount."

Now that is just one example. Another CEO said his hospital group is using 5 months worth per week! How? Not accusing anyone of anything, but the numbers don't add up unless new directives were set or staff is simply wasting them out of an over abundance of caution.

 

[Koronin]

Some quite spectacular differences between men (uomini) and women (donne). Also, the age-related risk is very outspoken. Basically, under 50, you'd have to be very unlucky to die from this. Also, I'm guessing that those younger people dying suffered from one or more other health issues.

Unfortunately I have a sister who would be one of those unlikely under 50 if she catches it, but she has auto immune diseases (yes plural) and always ends up with a severe case of anything she gets. So she decided to start self isolating about 2 weeks ago. The only time she left her house was to take her dog to the vet.

 

[Nirvana]

Honestly, are you surprised because this? I have been surprised that so many people seemingly without any questions asked basically let themselves lock in. In Germany there is no lockdown yet and a large amount of people are calling for one. You may argue that it is necessary to prevent a catastrophe but it is still a major cut into the liberal rights that were fought for for many centuries. Have there ever been similar measures?
And have you thought about what will happen when the government decides that the lockdown has to be continued over the initial 4 weeks? It may be fun for a couple of days and a certain sense of "we're in this together" seems to be present. As long as you can farm favs and karma on social media by singing or playing tennis from the balcony it may be all well. But what happens when after four weeks of lockdown another four weeks are announced? I'm scared of that.

And again, everything I've written is independant of whether these measures are actually necessary and effective. Just my thoughts on how our society can deal with essential rights being taken away for an indefinite period of time.

For what reason I should panic for rights when are probably that freaking rights the bigger issue? In this situation I really envy China where everyone strictly follow what the Paty say and thanks to that in two months they basically reduced to zero the new infected in loco.

Anyway the government here is already working on stricter measures and stricter controls (and likely for longer) because people continues to go out with the dog or to make a walk even for hours and that resulted in 50.000+ denounced by the army in a week. And that while the situation continues to worsen with the daily deaths at almost 500 yesterday and a lot are the result of not having places to cure them so could have been avoided if people would have been forced into their houses early and without the possibility to escape bypassing the measures someway.

 

[Jagartrott]

Going out for a walk will not get you ill, as long as you're far enough away from other. Physical exercise is absolutely important in keeping a good health. Effectively locking people up in small apartments can have a lot of negative effects, physically and psychologically. If you can maintain social distancing outside, there is no good reason not to allow this.

 

[Koronin]

It appears a flu treatment in Japan is helping at least with mild and moderate cases of coronavirus and is one of the treatment drugs in clinical trials. It might be close to being approved for market.

Japanese flu drug 'clearly effective' in treating coronavirus, says China

Shares in Fujifilm Toyama Chemical, which developed favipiravir, surged after praise by Chinese official

www.theguardian.com

 

[jmdirt]

Though I'm questioning some measures I'm actually rather self isolating already because I don't think I know better than the experts. Not that difficult for me, most of my work is done by sitting at home with my laptop and I'm not an extremely sociable person anyway. I had to cancel some workshops, the rest is quite easy to do. But in the past days, especially as my cold got better, a weird gap has opened up between what I see in the media and what I see and hear in my everyday life. Friends and family are like "once people realize it's only a flu...", "they are closing down the playgrounds, are they crazy?", "don't you wanna come over/ let's meet", while on the internet I see countries right next to us in complete lockdown. I'm like .

I'm with you! We have people hunkered down in bunkers with 90 days worth of food, water, supplies, plus guns and ammo, yet others who are still going to the bars (few that are open). I'm not at either extreme, but I'm definitely on the play it safe side. I'm staying in my house except to walk the dog and ride my bike. I ran into some friends on the trail yesterday and we all stood 10+ feet from each other to quickly commiserate and hope, and then got on our way (that was the most risky thing that I have done since shopping last weekend). Which brings me to food: at some point I will need to go shopping again and be exposed to the people who aren't being careful.

Have you seen the videos of 20 somethings having their spring break parties?! One guy said, "I'm just living in the moment having the best party of my life, whatever happens tomorrow doesn't matter". What if you kill your mom, grandpa, etc. just to have a party?!

 

[djpbaltimore]

Words really don't do those spring breakers justice. You really need to watch.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240417745419882501

View: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1240417745419882501


In their defense, we were all young and stupid once. Also of note, I am sure that there were plenty of boomers in Florida who were complaining that their cruises were cancelled.

 

[Red Rick]

Words really don't do those spring breakers justice. You really need to watch.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240417745419882501

View: https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1240417745419882501


In their defense, we were all young and stupid once. Also of note, I am sure that there were plenty of boomers in Florida who were complaining that their cruises were cancelled.

I really hate the 'we were young and stupid once' to excuse any stupidity beyond say maybe a bad hangover or something.

 

[Koronin]

I'm with you! We have people hunkered down in bunkers with 90 days worth of food, water, supplies, plus guns and ammo, yet others who are still going to the bars (few that are open). I'm not at either extreme, but I'm definitely on the play it safe side. I'm staying in my house except to walk the dog and ride my bike. I ran into some friends on the trail yesterday and we all stood 10+ feet from each other to quickly commiserate and hope, and then got on our way (that was the most risky thing that I have done since shopping last weekend). Which brings me to food: at some point I will need to go shopping again and be exposed to the people who aren't being careful.

Have you seen the videos of 20 somethings having their spring break parties?! One guy said, "I'm just living in the moment having the best party of my life, whatever happens tomorrow doesn't matter". What if you kill your mom, grandpa, etc. just to have a party?!

Good luck. Try going to the grocery store during the week instead of the weekend if possible. I'm a vendor who works in grocery stores and they are usually less busy during the week. Also at least the grocery stores here get 3 trucks per week. I'm still working although my company is giving people options for the next two weeks to work or not and paying if you don't work. I'm one of the few here who is choosing to keep working.

 

[jmdirt]

I really hate the 'we were young and stupid once' to excuse any stupidity beyond say maybe a bad hangover or something.

Agree! I was young and dumb once, but my dumb decisions never put the lives of others at risk. Yes, I thought that I was invincible, but I wouldn't put loved ones at risk to prove my invincibility. I know that every generation thinks the next generation isn't as responsible as them, but I do think that sub 30's of today are the least responsible people ever (I can only speak for what I see in the USA). Of course, their parents (the first generation of everyone gets a trophy, everyone is special) are mostly to blame so...

 

[GVFTA]

Agree! I was young and dumb once, but my dumb decisions never put the lives of others at risk. Yes, I thought that I was invincible, but I wouldn't put loved ones at risk to prove my invincibility. I know that every generation thinks the next generation isn't as responsible as them, but I do think that sub 30's of today are the least responsible people ever (I can only speak for what I see in the USA). Of course, their parents (the first generation of everyone gets a trophy, everyone is special) are mostly to blame so...

The most recent confirmed case that required hospitalization here in Boulder is a college student who attended a large (100 people) St. Patrick's Day party at a house on campus. He went from partying to the hospital in less than 48 hours. Sounds like he was awaiting test results and went partying anyhow.