Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[postmanhat]

Most of the claims I've read of a possible vaccine have seemed a bit flimsy on closer inspection. This one from The Guardian has given me optimism though. Or maybe I'm just desperate for some..


The head of the European Union executive has said a German company might have a vaccine against coronavirus by the autumn.

The European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, released €80m (£71.7m) of EU funds to the German pharmaceutical company CureVac on Monday, after discussing with executives their vaccine plans. She said:

"They are working on a patent that has already been approved and gone through the specific processes that are necessary, so they are highly specialised in this field. And it is their prediction that they might be able towards fall to have a vaccine that is fighting coronavirus."

German media reported that Donald Trump had tried to buy the company over the weekend, although the firm has distanced itself from those claims.

Von der Leyen said: “It is a European company. We wanted to keep it in Europe, it wanted to stay in Europe.” She said rules on approval of medical products would speed up “as we are in a severe crisis we all see that we are able to speed up many of the processes that are slow normally and take a lot of time”.

 

[Koronin]

Most of the claims I've read of a possible vaccine have seemed a bit flimsy on closer inspection. This one from The Guardian has given me optimism though. Or maybe I'm just desperate for some..


The head of the European Union executive has said a German company might have a vaccine against coronavirus by the autumn.

The European commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, released €80m (£71.7m) of EU funds to the German pharmaceutical company CureVac on Monday, after discussing with executives their vaccine plans. She said:

"They are working on a patent that has already been approved and gone through the specific processes that are necessary, so they are highly specialised in this field. And it is their prediction that they might be able towards fall to have a vaccine that is fighting coronavirus."

German media reported that Donald Trump had tried to buy the company over the weekend, although the firm has distanced itself from those claims.

Von der Leyen said: “It is a European company. We wanted to keep it in Europe, it wanted to stay in Europe.” She said rules on approval of medical products would speed up “as we are in a severe crisis we all see that we are able to speed up many of the processes that are slow normally and take a lot of time”.

Could be ready by autumn? I hadn't heard that. I know the two different ones I've heard of American companies are working on are at minimum a year away. 6-9 months away would be nice. I hope it does work and can get to production sooner.

 

[movingtarget]

Human trials already going on for some drugs. Airlines and cinemas winding down, same with cruise lines.

 

[Rollthedice]

World Cup victories are no longer the only reason for me to wish to be part of Germany.

But it seems to me the deaths are taking off everywhere.

I really wish we had the total amount of tests performed everywhere. Without that you can't frigging judge anything.

I think the number of infected people in Europe is huge, most with no symptoms or mild but spreading further the virus. At some point this wave reaches the vulnerable, over 70 or/and with major health problems or people who simply react badly to the infection. One can get the virus without knowing he has it, feeling well and infect others who do the same. Then you get to what's happening right now in Italy. I can't believe this virus kills between 5-10 % of the infected people, it's more like it's everywhere but what we see is thousands or tens of thousands of positives with hundreds or thousands of deaths.

 

[Red Rick]

I think the number of infected people in Europe is huge, most with no symptoms or mild but spreading further the virus. At some point this wave reaches the vulnerable, over 70 or/and with major health problems or people who simply react badly to the infection. One can get the virus without knowing he has it, feeling well and infect others who do the same. Then you get to what's happening right now in Italy. I can't believe this virus kills between 5-10 % of the infected people, it's more like it's everywhere but what we see is thousands or tens of thousands of positives with hundreds or thousands of deaths.

I don't doubt there's a lot of undiagnosed cases going on, and testing methods don't really favor a low mortality rate anywhere except in Germany if we're strictly talking about Europe.

Another question is if the Chinese and South Koreans really caught almost everyone, and thus provide a somewhat accurate mortality picture.

All in all, the 5% or 8% or whatever it is in Italy isn't the really worrying part for me. It's the flooding of the medical system. That's what potentially skyrockets the CFR, even among a younger population. And if it really goes off the rails we're talking about running out of medical supplies and an increased fatality rate among medical personnel, etc. These are all reasons why I think we should've takens harsh measures very early, to make sure we have the testing capacity before we relax the methods to contain the epidemic.

I can't stand people casually talking about 60% getting infected and then just saying mortality rate will still be 1%. That doesn't fly. Not with this hospitalisation rate. Anything over 5% infected is a disaster.

 

[Koronin]

I don't doubt there's a lot of undiagnosed cases going on, and testing methods don't really favor a low mortality rate anywhere except in Germany if we're strictly talking about Europe.

Another question is if the Chinese and South Koreans really caught almost everyone, and thus provide a somewhat accurate mortality picture.

All in all, the 5% or 8% or whatever it is in Italy isn't the really worrying part for me. It's the flooding of the medical system. That's what potentially skyrockets the CFR, even among a younger population. And if it really goes off the rails we're talking about running out of medical supplies and an increased fatality rate among medical personnel, etc. These are all reasons why I think we should've takens harsh measures very early, to make sure we have the testing capacity before we relax the methods to contain the epidemic.

I can't stand people casually talking about 60% getting infected and then just saying mortality rate will still be 1%. That doesn't fly. Not with this hospitalisation rate. Anything over 5% infected is a disaster.

This seems to be what most of our Governors are most worried about as well. This is the reason for the 3 weeks of shelter in place in San Francisco and a shelter in place will likely be put in place in NYC. However what an essential service is appears to be up for interpretation.

 

[Merckx index]

Interesting contrarian viewpoint from a Stanford epidemiologist. Some good points, but also some key blindspots like his failure to meaningful examine the likely hospital shortages.

That seems to be what everyone questioning the mortality rate misses--that it isn't just about deaths, but about treating the serious/critical cases. While it would be nice to have more information on the proportion of those relative to infections, all we have to do is look at Italy to see that no data are going to change our minds about the seriousness of this.

Adding these extra sources of uncertainty, reasonable estimates for the case fatality ratio in the general U.S. population vary from 0.05% to 1%.

He refers to the Diamond Princess, but then uses data from the China study to correct for the skewed age distribution on board. A more rigorous study combined the two datasets and estimated a mortality rate of 0.5% based on infections, or 1.0% based on cases (i.e., the rate is lower based on infections because it includes asymptomatics).

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf

The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.

Wrt random testing of the population, maybe it’s time to look for antibodies. We really need to direct RNA- testing to those most likely to be showing symptoms, so random testing is at this point is probably not the best use of resources, unless a fairly small carefully selected sample (n = 500-1000) can be defined. Ab testing could be carried out on a much larger population, and while some of the subjects might be positive but still not have produced Abs, if there is a large proportion of asymptomatics, or mild cases that weren’t tested, a large fraction of them should be recovered now.

This would definitely be the case in China, where almost 90% of cases are now closed. I’m surprised the Chinese haven’t initiated a study of this kind by now. Test a large representative sample in Wuhan, and if the data indicate there really have been a lot of invisible carriers, extend the testing to other cities. As the Stanford researcher notes, this is information the West definitely needs to have. And it goes beyond estimating mortality rates more accurately. Even those who were nominally asymptomatic may be able to recall having symptoms that were so mild and unremarkable that they didn't feel sick at all. Information like that conceivably could be helpful in targeting testing among people who have been exposed to the virus but have no obvious symptoms.

If it turns out the proportion of asymptomatics is really high, then this will become clear eventually from the cases we do record. E.g., a few days ago, some researcher estimated there could be as many as half a million infected individuals in the U.S. I doubt that very much, but it it were the case, then the population would be probably approaching saturation within two months. In fact, the rate of new cases would start declining as soon as a large proportion of individuals had the virus, because the number of uninfected individuals the virus targets would be greatly reduced.

 

[sir fly]

Hearing about the states of emergency, restricted mobility rights and even police hours all over the globe, reminded me of social self-protection exercises taking place from time to time in former Yugoslavia. Not a simulation this time around, though, but an indication of readiness certainly is.

 

[Unchained]

I am sure everyone has regional reflections on what they see where they live. In San Diego this is going to be devastating. Our biggest attractions all shut down bars,breweries,closed. San Diego Zoo and Sea World closed. No tours of any kind.As of today no places to eat. McDonald's and the others have drive up service but do not allow people to consume food at the point of sale.
The grocery stores are in a state of apocalypse. Wal Mart and other big grocery chains look like a staged zombie movie where everything is just been looted.
The place I get coffee has a simple sign " closed ".
A guy in LA who is a great bike racer..crits ,track and mountain bike..has a part time business selling appliances at 2 Orange county swap meets..I hope he is not mad at me for details disclosure..he makes @$1000-2000 per weekend..no sales now for 2 going on 3 weeks..and now possibilities dashed w swap meets and farmers markets cancelled.
The San Diego Latino Film festival cancelled the day of!!!been going for 27 or 28 years!!!
5 active duty military personnel have tested positive..
My neighbor who works at a school is home on a weekday..doesn't know when he will return to work.
Other acquaintance..he said his supervisor at an area casino told him that there will be no work for absolute certain for 20 days.
That's my micro economy snap shot from a guy that doesn't know anybody testing positive yet.
I can't imagine what people that work at Disneyland and Lo s Angeles theme parks must be thinking..

 

[Nomad]

I think the number of infected people in Europe is huge, most with no symptoms or mild but spreading further the virus. At some point this wave reaches the vulnerable, over 70 or/and with major health problems or people who simply react badly to the infection. One can get the virus without knowing he has it, feeling well and infect others who do the same. Then you get to what's happening right now in Italy. I can't believe this virus kills between 5-10 % of the infected people, it's more like it's everywhere but what we see is thousands or tens of thousands of positives with hundreds or thousands of deaths.

It's not everywhere:

Russia, a country of 146 mil is reporting 114 cases with no deaths and none listed as serious/critical.

Finland, 5.5 mil, 322 cases/no deaths/2 listed serious/critical.

India, 1.2 Billion, 147 cases with only 3 deaths and none listed serious/critical.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 124,264,815 Cases and 2,734,674 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Very peculiar is all I can say.

 

[Rollthedice]

Testing in Russia like at the Sochi Olympics.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Well, the bug is officially in my county now, which should come as a surprise to no one. I'm taking care of my elderly parents who are both in their late 70s, so I will have to cut their trips to the bare minimum. (Most of their social activities have already been cancelled anyway.) But, not to leave our pets out of the equation I got this email from my vet's, I think it's actually a pretty good plan for the time being for pet owners.

Dear xxxx,

Veterinary care is an essential part of our community, and we want to assure you that our hospital is open and will continue to provide services at this time. We also want to work with you to limit direct contact in order to focus on safety for everyone during this pandemic. Accordingly, we ask that you follow the steps below for the safety of all:

•	Upon arrival at the hospital, please remain in your vehicle or outside the hospital and call us.
•	After receipt of the call, we will check you in as soon as possible from outside the hospital.
•	If you believe you need to be inside our facility, please discuss that request in advance with the hospital manager, medical director, and/or attending veterinarian.
•	If you are at the hospital to pick up food or medication, please remain in your car or outside the hospital and call the front desk. We will deliver your order to your car as quickly as possible.
•	If you are not feeling well or may be at risk of exposure to the coronavirus, please ask a healthy friend or family member to transport your pet to the hospital on your behalf.

We will do our best to coordinate your visit from outside the hospital, including providing follow-up instructions and taking payments.

 

[Nirvana]

We have a new chapter in the "idiots who think they are on vacation" story.

A Giugliano organizzano un picnic in un parco: 12 denunciati

Contravvenendo alle disposizioni del governo per l'emergenza Coronavirus, hanno organizzato un picnic in un parco, con tanto di sedie e tavoli

napoli.fanpage.it

And also for the "escape from the lockdown" one.

Coronavirus: fuga da Parigi prima dello stop agli spostamenti

Leggi su Sky TG24 l'articolo Coronavirus: fuga da Parigi prima dello stop agli spostamenti

tg24.sky.it

 

[Sestriere]

We have a new chapter in the "idiots who think they are on vacation" story.

A Giugliano organizzano un picnic in un parco: 12 denunciati

Contravvenendo alle disposizioni del governo per l'emergenza Coronavirus, hanno organizzato un picnic in un parco, con tanto di sedie e tavoli

napoli.fanpage.it

And also for the "escape from the lockdown" one.

Coronavirus: fuga da Parigi prima dello stop agli spostamenti

Leggi su Sky TG24 l'articolo Coronavirus: fuga da Parigi prima dello stop agli spostamenti

tg24.sky.it

Honestly, are you surprised because this? I have been surprised that so many people seemingly without any questions asked basically let themselves lock in. In Germany there is no lockdown yet and a large amount of people are calling for one. You may argue that it is necessary to prevent a catastrophe but it is still a major cut into the liberal rights that were fought for for many centuries. Have there ever been similar measures?
And have you thought about what will happen when the government decides that the lockdown has to be continued over the initial 4 weeks? It may be fun for a couple of days and a certain sense of "we're in this together" seems to be present. As long as you can farm favs and karma on social media by singing or playing tennis from the balcony it may be all well. But what happens when after four weeks of lockdown another four weeks are announced? I'm scared of that.

And again, everything I've written is independant of whether these measures are actually necessary and effective. Just my thoughts on how our society can deal with essential rights being taken away for an indefinite period of time.

 

[aphronesis]

Some Coronavirus Humility

There are two well-known themes, or topoi, in classical literature. One concerns the graphic descriptions in Thucydides, Sophocles, and Procopius of

www.city-journal.org

 

[BlueRoads]

Neue Corona-Symptome entdeckt: Virologe Hendrik Streeck zum Virus

Hendrik Streeck ist wahrscheinlich der Virologe, der die meisten Patienten in Deutschland gesehen hat. Ein Interview über neue Covid-19-Symptome, Schnelltests und zu hohe Todeszahlen.

www.faz.net

Rather respected virologist. He thinks the real infection rate in Italy is extremely high, hence the seemingly extreme high mortality rate. Says in Germany also people with a slightly sore throat get tested.
(Also says it might be that in the end of 2020 we don't have more deaths than in other years.)
Well, let's hope he's right. Interview is a few days old.

 

[movingtarget]

It's not everywhere:

Russia, a country of 146 mil is reporting 114 cases with no deaths and none listed as serious/critical.

Finland, 5.5 mil, 322 cases/no deaths/2 listed serious/critical.

India, 1.2 Billion, 147 cases with only 3 deaths and none listed serious/critical.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 124,264,815 Cases and 2,734,674 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

Very peculiar is all I can say.

Peculiar is the right word but I can think of better ones ! But even on that sample size from Finland and Russia there will no doubt be deaths and countries like Spain and Italy are much bigger for tourism. The infection rate in Australia is steadily climbing even though the deaths have been limited so far...............

 

[sir fly]

There are countries unable to thoroughly carry out testing or minimizing the numbers, and on the other side, there are rigorous measures elsewhere.
Once the measures are canceled, the random pockets won't disappear unless WHO takes responsibility for managing the epidemic in less organized countries.
An eventual subsequent wave of infection could make the current situation ridiculous, unless an efficient treatment is found.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Wrt random testing of the population, maybe it’s time to look for antibodies. We really need to direct RNA- testing to those most likely to be showing symptoms, so random testing is at this point is probably not the best use of resources, unless a fairly small carefully selected sample (n = 500-1000) can be defined. Ab testing could be carried out on a much larger population, and while some of the subjects might be positive but still not have produced Abs, if there is a large proportion of asymptomatics, or mild cases that weren’t tested, a large fraction of them should be recovered now.

This would definitely be the case in China, where almost 90% of cases are now closed. I’m surprised the Chinese haven’t initiated a study of this kind by now. Test a large representative sample in Wuhan, and if the data indicate there really have been a lot of invisible carriers, extend the testing to other cities. As the Stanford researcher notes, this is information the West definitely needs to have. And it goes beyond estimating mortality rates more accurately. Even those who were nominally asymptomatic may be able to recall having symptoms that were so mild and unremarkable that they didn't feel sick at all. Information like that conceivably could be helpful in targeting testing among people who have been exposed to the virus but have no obvious symptoms.

If it turns out the proportion of asymptomatics is really high, then this will become clear eventually from the cases we do record. E.g., a few days ago, some researcher estimated there could be as many as half a million infected individuals in the U.S. I doubt that very much, but it it were the case, then the population would be probably approaching saturation within two months. In fact, the rate of new cases would start declining as soon as a large proportion of individuals had the virus, because the number of uninfected individuals the virus targets would be greatly reduced.

It is true that if tests are being rationed that random testing is not plausible. It is a luxury at this point.

Interesting article about how blanket testing in one Italian village stopped the virus cold. It also showed quite a few asymptomatic people who tested positive.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240279081293352964

View: https://twitter.com/AlecMacGillis/status/1240279081293352964

 

[Nomad]

South Korean model worked cause they started mass testing super early. USA probably has tens of thousands of undiagnosed cases waiting to happen which is a ticking time bomb.

Does anyone recall the doctor's name on the WH coronavirus team that said in South Korea "96%" symptomatic people actually tested negative and therefore had another respiratory condition (I just caught the tail end of this on CNN and didn't get her name - can't find anything on a search either).

If "96%" of the "symptomatic" people tested don't have COVID-19...then something is not right here.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Was it the one pictured below?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240106851301298176

View: https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1240106851301298176

 

[Nomad]

Was it the one pictured below?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1240106851301298176

View: https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1240106851301298176

Yes...I believe so.

 

[Nomad]

Peculiar is the right word but I can think of better ones ! But even on that sample size from Finland and Russia there will no doubt be deaths and countries like Spain and Italy are much bigger for tourism. The infection rate in Australia is steadily climbing even though the deaths have been limited so far...............

Interesting...what do you think of the disparity between Iran & Iraq? Iran, 81 mil population, is imploding with 17,300 cases and 1,135 deaths. Their neighbors to the West, Iraq, 38 mil, only have 164 cases with "12" deaths reported as of today. Granted, Iraq has less than half the population of Iran, but this is a huge difference on how CV is impacting two countries in the same geographical region.

 

[Unchained]

If you are an American and you have listened closely to the Federal Corona Virus task force, if you are not over the top petrified scared you are drunk,high or...
when asked about testing..they first start w that we don't have the resources and or infrastructure to accommodate even @25% of America 's @325,000 million people..and then in the same sentence state that it's not possible to identify where,who the problem areas are in a vast country.
Ships in WWII...?what does warship production in the 1930's and 40's have to do with a strategy for today?
I don't know..but I don't think anybody else knows either

 

[jmdirt]

Does anyone recall the doctor's name on the WH coronavirus team that said in South Korea "96%" symptomatic people actually tested negative and therefore had another respiratory condition (I just caught the tail end of this on CNN and didn't get her name - can't find anything on a search either).

If "96%" of the "symptomatic" people tested don't have COVID-19...then something is not right here.

What's not right? I don't know if that number is accurate, but millions of people every year have those symptoms and don't/didn't have C19.