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Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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This sounds similar to what I have heard from a Chinese source. Then there is a suggestion Covid-19 was brought into Wuhan by visiting American soldiers. Not sure how that is possible for obvious reasons but this is what I hear from a Chinese Australian who reads and follows Chinese language news sites. But I guess I am simply espousing the 'small village mentality' view :rolleyes:
This has been a story that has been pushed hard by the Chinese government. Create confusion, classic trick. Meanwhile, China have been blocking and delaying WHO access to trace the virus origin for months...

Like explained elsewhere, most experts are not convinced that the traces of viral material found in sewage already in 2019 points to covid-19. Same for antibodies found very early.
 
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This has been a story that has been pushed hard by the Chinese government. Create confusion, classic trick. Meanwhile, China have been blocking and delaying WHO access to trace the virus origin for months...

Like explained elsewhere, most experts are not convinced that the traces of viral material found in sewage already in 2019 points to covid-19.
Thanks. The Chinese story I heard suggests they traced 5 variants of DNA to different parts of the world. Hence it didn’t originate in Wuhan’s wet markets. Anyhow China got upset when an independent enquiry was asked for yet no alternative explanation has been provided by them that I am aware. But this still seems to be the default understanding in China of where COVID originated.
 
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Yes it spreads rapidly but critical thresholds? I haven’t seen that discussed here. Europe was too slow to shut the gate. Flights were arriving with the virus from China or Iran before you knew. Much like my country but we have lower population densities and lower foreign arrivals. A lockdown was easier to implement and sustain.
Sure, borders should have been closed much earlier, but remember that both China and WHO were pushing to keep flights going... A massive mistake in Belgium, in my eyes, was to allow hundreds of thousands of people to go for winter holidays at the end of February. There was no legal basis to stop these people, that's one thing, the other thing is that Italian and Austrian authorities had reported no infections in the skiing areas. So, people thought, as long as we avoid Milan and the few early hotspots, we'll be fine... Of course, they forgot that many seasonal workers in these skiing stations come from Milan and are often young (so more likely to have little to no symptoms). That was a huge mistake, clearly - but economic importance (the skiing areas themselves) and public pressure (try telling a couple of 100.000 people a week in advance that they can't go on holiday without reported infections)...

Regarding the threshold, it's not that the virus starts behaving differently, it's that a situation that seems "OK" can quickly get out of hand. For instance, in Belgium, 7-day average infections/day:
  • 26 August: 438
  • 26 September: 1600
  • 26 October: 15662 (!)

(luckily: 26 November: 2395)
 
Since we're discussing China's role again, I'll note that CNN just published a special report of leaked documents that suggest, among other things, that China was under-reporting its C19 statistics, though as far as I can tell, not grossly so.


The CNN documents shows a health system under stress, while having trouble getting an outbreak of a previously unknown infectious disease under control, just like any other country would have, and for some, still are having. The most incriminating thing out of the report is this: "In a report marked "internal document, please keep confidential," local health authorities in the province of Hubei, where the virus was first detected, list a total of 5,918 newly detected cases on February 10, more than double the official public number of confirmed cases, breaking down the total into a variety of subcategories. This larger figure was never fully revealed at that time, as China's accounting system seemed, in the tumult of the early weeks of the pandemic, to downplay the severity of the outbreak. "

They then explain that the numerous inconsistencies were because case report numbers at the time were separated into multiple categories: "
On February 10, when China reported 2,478 new confirmed cases nationwide, the documents show Hubei actually circulated a different total of 5,918 newly reported cases. The internal number is divided into subcategories, providing an insight into the full scope of Hubei's diagnosis methodology at the time.
"Confirmed cases" number 2,345, "clinically diagnosed cases" 1,772, and "suspected cases" 1,796.

So China's central health service reported 2,478 confirmed cases for all of China while Hubei province reported 2,345 confirmed cases. No big discrepancy. The difference being cases from outside Hubei province. In early February, China still had problems to sufficiently test for Covid-19 infections. It took time to confirm new cases. The tests were also not yet reliable. The category 'clinical diagnosed cases' was for those who had tested negative with a still faulty test but showed signs of acute pneumonia - i.e. CT chest scans. After the testing problems were resolved the category was eliminated, placing them into the "confirmed" category by mid-February (this correction added a large spike of new cases on 1 day, which again has occurred all around the world there are reporting consistencies/revisions in how positive cases are counted.

Further down, even the CNN journalists admit that the documents they were given do not actually show any wrongdoing.
However, Mertha, the JHU academic, said the mismatch between the higher internal and lower public figures on the February death toll "appeared to be a deception, for unsurprising reasons."
"Conversely, however, the leaked documents also provide something of a defense of China's overall handling of the virus. The reports show that in the early stages of the pandemic, China faced the same problems of accounting, testing, and diagnosis that still haunt many Western democracies even now -- issues compounded by Hubei encountering an entirely new virus."

If they wanted to incriminate China, the documents actually provide very poor evidence.
 
So Britain approved vaccine from Pfizer as first country in the world. Great news. Also this is big punch in the face for slovak hoaxers. They claimed after anouncement that we may had first vaccines in december that Slovakia as unsignificant country in the world is guinea pig for the others. I am curious what they will tell now :D
 
This has been a story that has been pushed hard by the Chinese government. Create confusion, classic trick. Meanwhile, China have been blocking and delaying WHO access to trace the virus origin for months...

Like explained elsewhere, most experts are not convinced that the traces of viral material found in sewage already in 2019 points to covid-19. Same for antibodies found very early.

Or how about the story about this being a leaked bioengineered virus from a Biolab in Wuhan?
This has been a story that has been pushed hard by the Western governments and MSM. Create confusion, classic trick.

Blocking and delaying WHO access? Read page 31 of this document, which states the following:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
January 3rd, 2020, information on COVID-19 cases has been reported to WHO on a daily basis.
January 7th, full genome sequences of the new virus were shared with WHO and the international community immediately after the pathogen was identified.
January 10th, an expert group involving Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwanese technical experts and a World Health Organization team was invited to visit Wuhan.
 
An aged care centre works on a medical model, so realistically should have done better - The biggest issue in this sector was not poorly equipped PPE or poorly trained staff but no testing of staff - You seem to be confusing aged care settings with quarantine hotels.
Uh no I think i know the difference between a hotel and an aged care facility and from my own experience with aged care I was not surprisd at all with some of the problems knowing how poorly some of them are managed and with the lack of oversight that sector often suffers from. There were good reasons why Australia recently had a Royal Commission for nursing homes and aged care.
 
Or how about the story about this being a leaked bioengineered virus from a Biolab in Wuhan?
This has been a story that has been pushed hard by the Western governments and MSM. Create confusion, classic trick.

Blocking and delaying WHO access? Read page 31 of this document, which states the following:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...na-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf
January 3rd, 2020, information on COVID-19 cases has been reported to WHO on a daily basis.
January 7th, full genome sequences of the new virus were shared with WHO and the international community immediately after the pathogen was identified.
January 10th, an expert group involving Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwanese technical experts and a World Health Organization team was invited to visit Wuhan.
I'm not talking about January, I'm talking about now.

WHO investigators who visited Wuhan earlier this year were not able to visit the food market linked to the initial outbreak. A new team is expected to head to China soon to build on initial work by a Chinese team, but they still don’t have a date for travel, with the WHO saying only that they will travel “in due time”.

Understanding the origins of Covid-19 is vital to efforts to prevent the next pandemic. Unfortunately, for now Beijing seems more focused on the question of who should carry blame for the disease, than on understanding where it came from.

“What we’re seeing at the moment is indicative of where the Chinese government wants all this to come out – and that place is certainly not an open, accountable effort to determine what went wrong and ensure that it never happens again,” Small said.
 
At the university of Leuven (the biggest uni in Belgium), researchers are developing a covid vaccine administered via a nasal spray. It is based on a yellow fever vaccine, which generates lifelong immunity, and the researchers expect that their covid vaccine would also grant long-lasting immunity. They expect the vaccine to be ready in about a year, but I wonder again, with the advent of other vaccines, how are they going to test the efficacy of new ones?
 
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I'm not talking about January, I'm talking about now.

WHO investigators who visited Wuhan earlier this year were not able to visit the food market linked to the initial outbreak. A new team is expected to head to China soon to build on initial work by a Chinese team, but they still don’t have a date for travel, with the WHO saying only that they will travel “in due time”.

Understanding the origins of Covid-19 is vital to efforts to prevent the next pandemic. Unfortunately, for now Beijing seems more focused on the question of who should carry blame for the disease, than on understanding where it came from.

“What we’re seeing at the moment is indicative of where the Chinese government wants all this to come out – and that place is certainly not an open, accountable effort to determine what went wrong and ensure that it never happens again,” Small said.

They visited in January, April, August, with reassurance of more visits in the future. Mission summary: WHO Field Visit to Wuhan, China 20-21 January 2020; WHO advance team ends visit to China to probe COVID origin - ABC News (go.com). "What we would like to do with the international team and counterparts in China is to go back in the Wuhan environment, re-interview in-depth the initial cases, try to find other cases that were not detected at that time and try to see if we can push back the history of the first cases," he said. The WHO has had assurances from China that an international field trip to investigate the origins of the coronavirus will be arranged as soon as possible, its top emergency expert Mike Ryan said on Monday. 3 visits within half a year of the outbreak and reassurances of more in the future, that doesn't fit the "not open, accountable effort, not willing to cooperate" narrative, rather the opposite.
 
Or how about the story about this being a leaked bioengineered virus from a Biolab in Wuhan?
This has been a story that has been pushed hard by the Western governments and MSM. Create confusion, classic trick.
You can't complain about fake news regarding China and covid while making up stuff like this notion that "the Western governments" pushed hard for a story about this being a leaked bioengineered virus from a biolab in Wuhan.
 
You can't complain about fake news regarding China and covid while making up stuff like this notion that "the Western governments" pushed hard for a story about this being a leaked bioengineered virus from a biolab in Wuhan.

Post was sarcastic irony directed at previous quoted post Re: " a suggestion Covid-19 was brought into Wuhan by visiting American soldiers. " "This has been a story that has been pushed hard by the Chinese government. Create confusion, classic trick. "
 
View: https://twitter.com/amymaxmen/status/1334155823581327363


I think the notion that these people are reachable is overly optimistic. The RNA vaccines are going to give more unpleasant reactions than most vaccines do and there is going to be a fierce backlash. There will be viral videos almost as soon as people get vaccinated of 'horrible side effects'. But the root cause is that a lot of people will believe random internet people as long as what they say is stated with confidence. I don't think it is appreciated enough how well anti-vaxxers have infiltrated normal discourse by just being persistent and confident.
 
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Post was sarcastic irony directed at previous quoted post Re: " a suggestion Covid-19 was brought into Wuhan by visiting American soldiers. " "This has been a story that has been pushed hard by the Chinese government. Create confusion, classic trick. "
What I wrote was factually correct. Chinese government officials and state media have been pushing the 'covid came from elsewhere' narrative. The Wuhan biolab story was a fringe thing, and definitely not pushed by Western governments.
 
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Uh no I think i know the difference between a hotel and an aged care facility and from my own experience with aged care I was not surprisd at all with some of the problems knowing how poorly some of them are managed and with the lack of oversight that sector often suffers from. There were good reasons why Australia recently had a Royal Commission for nursing homes and aged care.

An aged/nursing care home does have a medical setting, though not to to the same standard of a hospital - The Royal Commission into nursing homes and aged Care was announced in September 2018 to look into better ways of running this industry, so it just happened that COVID hit during the Commission - The simple reason reason COVID impacted on this sector was because there was STAGGERINGLY no regular testing of staff even after the problems in Melbourne in August 2019 which stemmed from the virus leaking from quarantine hotels - Even more staggering is that despite the issues in Melbourne quarantine hotels staff in this sector were still not tested.Then you had the small outbreak from South Australian quarantine hotels in November in which staff were still not tested - Belatedly the state Government's of SA and WA have started regular testing of these staff, while Victoria which resumes hotel quarantine on December 7 will test staff every day under the new guidelines - Every day may be overkill but it's better to err on the side of caution.
 
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They visited in January, April, August, with reassurance of more visits in the future. Mission summary: WHO Field Visit to Wuhan, China 20-21 January 2020; WHO advance team ends visit to China to probe COVID origin - ABC News (go.com). "What we would like to do with the international team and counterparts in China is to go back in the Wuhan environment, re-interview in-depth the initial cases, try to find other cases that were not detected at that time and try to see if we can push back the history of the first cases," he said. The WHO has had assurances from China that an international field trip to investigate the origins of the coronavirus will be arranged as soon as possible, its top emergency expert Mike Ryan said on Monday. 3 visits within half a year of the outbreak and reassurances of more in the future, that doesn't fit the "not open, accountable effort, not willing to cooperate" narrative, rather the opposite.

You are ranting about nothing - The fact is COVID was first found in Hubei Province - Whether it originated in China will be investigated with no certainty the investigators will be able to pinpoint it's origins - Another fact is both China and parts of the west have been promoting their own theories about the origins of COVID.
 
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If they wanted to incriminate China, the documents actually provide very poor evidence.

Yes, which shows that Western media actually are capable of reporting facts, independent of whether they're supportive or critical of China.

I think the notion that these people are reachable is overly optimistic.

A Gallup poll found that > 40% would not take the vaccine. OTOH, Donna Shalala, former HHS Secretary thinks that as soon as people realize that getting back to work will depend on getting vaccinated, they will readily do so.

Trump Covid vaccine czar says U.S. should be able to immunize nearly a third of population by end of February

Maybe. But the first 24 million to be vaccinated reportedly can only be done so at a rate of 2-5 million per week, which means it would take 1-3 months. And those are just the first group of essential workers.
 

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