Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Nirvana]

Let's be real, the Virus has probably been in Italy for a few weeks. It's important to protect the sick and the elderly, but going into total panic mode won't help. South Tyrol has closed the University (a gloryfied highschool) and all day-care centers for at least one week without a single confirmed chase.
I'll probably travel to Innsbruck asap, not being able to get to work next week because of a total lockdown/full blown paranoia would suck.

But that's the problem, until the first death they were saying that there wasn't any risk and we even saw people from Protezione Civile and government joking about the situation but the virus was spreading unnoticed for who knows how many time. Probably it's around even in other areas but they are still waiting deaths or something to extend tests so the situation could only worsen and at some point they have to take action.

 

[Mayomaniac]

But that's the problem, until the first death they were saying that there wasn't any risk and we even saw people from Protezione Civile and government joking about the situation but the virus was spreading unnoticed for who knows how many time. Probably it's around even in other areas but they are still waiting deaths or something to extend tests so the situation could only worsen and at some point they have to take action.

Yes, I also have the feeling that many regions haven't even started testing. That said, it kinda makes sense that the Virus in spreading in the wealthier Regions and those with international airports first, here you have more people traveling.
On a personal level my main concern would be me infecting my grandma, who is 92 years old. The whole way the situation was handled is just very Italian. Joking and not taking stuff serious until something serious happens, then going full panic mode and taking drastic measures.

 

[djpbaltimore]

There are two key parameters for viruses that impact their effect on populations, the transmission and mortality rates. The transmission rate for COVID-19, the official name for the new coronavirus, seems to be considerably higher than that for SARS or MERS, while the mortality rate, as noted by others, is much lower. Also, the mortality rate may be overestimated, since the number of infections is likely underestimated.

The spread of infections continues to slow in China, based at least on reported new cases--only about a 0.5% increase the last day. A few weeks ago, some epidemiologists were predicting that the pandemic would peak with 50,000 new cases a day. It hasn't approached anything remotely close to that.

i think in some respects, the world is lucky this began in China.

Often, those are inversely related. Ebola epidemics would often burn out too quick to spread. But the most recent variant caused a milder illness and spread way beyond what was previously imagined. It was no accident that the virus originated in China. It is an epidemiological hotbed for zoonotic transfer.

S. Korea and Italy are the only countries outside of China where new cases are appearing at a high rate, and in the case of S. Korea, about half the cases occurred as a result of some religious service. Iran could join that list, but still has reported relatively few cases.

The number of cases in China has increased by less than 10% in the past week, with only half a dozen new cases in the past day or so. The number of cases increased nearly 90% in the previous week, not counting the spike when better diagnosis was begun. They increased four times in the week before that.

I would be very concerned about recent developments in Iran. This is not a pandemic yet, but I agree with the scientists that we are closing in on a stage where that transition is almost inevitable. It is not so much about the raw number of infections outside of China, but rather that there appears to be more and more areas of the world with community acquired cases (i.e. not from people returning from China).

Good popular press article about the ongoing epidemic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

 

[Mayomaniac]

First confirmed chase in South Tyrol.
Time to get over the Brenner asap before the border gets closed (wouldn't surprise me).

 

[Nirvana]

Another death reported in Lombardia, seven out of ~200 cases is pretty high.

 

[King Boonen]

Another death reported in Lombardia, seven out of ~200 cases is pretty high.

3.5% and that’s likely an overestimation if they have only just started testing properly. Probably in line with what would be expected.

 

[djpbaltimore]

It's clearly more serious than the flu based on current data, but the flu is more pervasive so it's hard to say where it will fall out.


You mentioned vaccines. As you say, there is currently no vaccine for this particular coronavirus, but it's also worthwhile pointing out that there is no vaccine for MERs or SARs either and the development of vaccines for coronaviruses is very difficult. I can't actually think of any vaccines, either in human or veterinary medicine (where coronavirus infections are more pervasive. My knowledge in veterinary medicine isn't great so there may be some). SARS killed around 10% of infected people but around 50% of over 60s. MERs is even worse, killing about 40% of total people infected. These numbers are based on known infections and due to the low number of confirmed infections for MERs it's hard to say if this is a truly representative mortality rate, but it's enough to worry people. SARs was initially under-reported and this has been discussed as a reason for a much wider spread of the disease than may have been necessary. I seem to remember a WHO team was even forbidden from visiting Guangdong province

I think that this is likely what is driving the more extreme reactions in this case.

There is a cat vaccine. It does not work very well though. It is a problem inherent to CoVs. If a natural infection can't elicit durable immunity, it is a challenge to make a 'fake' one perform markedly better. I have been struck by how many experts have been talking about the time it would take to get a vaccine to market as if it is just a practical manufacturing/ regulatory problem. It is unclear whether a vaccine is even doable at all. The CoV researcher down the hall is staffing up in anticipation for new grants, so a silver lining for some.

 

[Nirvana]

3.5% and that’s likely an overestimation if they have only just started testing properly. Probably in line with what would be expected.

WHO today said that the mortality outside China is 0.7%, to reach this figure we need a couple of thousands of cases considering that the deaths will likely increase as well with 29 cases reported in intensive care.

 

[zarnack]

If there are so many cases in Italy, the virus is basically guaranteed to be in the rest of (Western) Europe as well, considering how interconnected Europe is. It just takes time before the symptoms show, the presence of this specific virus gets confirmed, etc. We may get some major news in March...

 

[Merckx index]

The situation in S. Korea is definitely alarming, with the fraction of the population infected in the rough neighborhood of China. Indeed, the infection rate in S. Korea is higherthan anywhere in China outside of Hubei. But as I mentioned before, a large proportion of those infections seemed to occur in a religious meeting, and many people from that meeting, not realizing they were infected, then left and started spreading the virus further.

Wrt Iran, though the number of cases is small, the death rate is about 20%, almost ten times what it is in China. That could be the vagaries of a small sample size, particularly if an unusually large number of cases are older people, but it's something to keep an eye on.

On vaccines, I saw a story a week or two ago claiming that blood, or some fraction from blood, of a recovered patient was transfused to an infected person, and the individual quickly recovered. But I've heard nothing more since.

 

[Nirvana]

Local press here this morning reports that a man tested positive in Careggi (not officially because only in Rome there is the official testing and the in loco testing is only a "pre test"), apparently this guy returned from Singapore more than 20 days ago and continued his normal life until yesterday when he meandered between the three hospitals of the the city before being discovered as infected.

Anyway I think the positive in Sicily is way worse because there you have also a third world healthcare added to Italian laxness.

According to Rainews an Italian tested positive also in Tenerife.

Edit: official data from Lombardia is 1800 tested with 206 positive results.

 

[King Boonen]

WHO today said that the mortality outside China is 0.7%, to reach this figure we need a couple of thousands of cases considering that the deaths will likely increase as well with 29 cases reported in intensive care.

Yeah, but that varies depending on where the outbreak is. Lombardia's outbreak seems to have come from a hospital or at least include one and from what's been said they reacted very slowly. This is going to have a big impact on mortality rate, (compared to, say, an outbreak in an office block) as at risk people will be more likely to be exposed. Similar things were seen with SARs and MERs I believe.

 

[King Boonen]

There is a cat vaccine. It does not work very well though. It is a problem inherent to CoVs. If a natural infection can't elicit durable immunity, it is a challenge to make a 'fake' one perform markedly better. I have been struck by how many experts have been talking about the time it would take to get a vaccine to market as if it is just a practical manufacturing/ regulatory problem. It is unclear whether a vaccine is even doable at all. The CoV researcher down the hall is staffing up in anticipation for new grants, so a silver lining for some.

Based on a bit of reading it's going to be tough. I think a lot of people are thinking it's similar to Ebola, where all it took was rich, white people to be infected and suddenly there was a solution. I'm not sure people realise the differences between viruses and how prevalent coronaviruses are in the first place (15% of common colds are coronaviruses apparently).

 

[Mayomaniac]

2 Italians tested positive in Innsbruck.

 

[BullsFan22]

Slovenia has closed down its borders.

 

[King Boonen]

Slovenia has closed down its borders.

If Madagascar shut down theirs then maybe everything will just reset... (too obscure a reference?)

 

[djpbaltimore]

On vaccines, I saw a story a week or two ago claiming that blood, or some fraction from blood, of a recovered patient was transfused to an infected person, and the individual quickly recovered. But I've heard nothing more since.

That is probably passive antibody transfer through serum. This was useful during the Ebola outbreak as survivors recovered and could give blood to help the sick. I think it was pretty well accepted that neutralizing antibodies were present, but I doubt there was a well controlled study to determine efficacy.

Based on a bit of reading it's going to be tough. I think a lot of people are thinking it's similar to Ebola, where all it took was rich, white people to be infected and suddenly there was a solution. I'm not sure people realise the differences between viruses and how prevalent coronaviruses are in the first place (15% of common colds are coronaviruses apparently).

I totally agree. I think one big difference is that there were already really good vaccine leads in the scientific literature for Ebola prior to the big outbreak. There just wasn't much will to develop them by Western Pharma because it was a rare African illness.

We have thrown plenty of money at HIV and look how well that has gone on the vaccine front. The lesson is money can't always solve intractable scientific problems. I think there is more hope for CoV, but I am dubious. I think this is a problem that will require epidemiology more than immunology to solve. Antivirals may help at some point too if containment fails.

I will be really curious to see how much cross-protection some of the seasonal cold strains are giving if any.

 

[Nirvana]

Lombardia's governor said they'll stop testing people except the ones in serious state and who is close to them and has fever, looks like they want to stop the rise in number but in this way we return in full laxness mode.

Another incredible show of laxness is coming from Liguria, the governor said that a woman infected has gone to Albenga hospital and no one has put in action the protocol so the personnel could be infected, the same woman was in an hotel in Alassio since the 11th of February and came from Lombardia, I wonder how many people could have been infected in the meantime.

 

[Nirvana]

2 Italians tested positive in Innsbruck.

Also in Chile an Italian tested positive, I start to believe that Italians have already exported the virus around the world because probably the virus arrived here already at the beginning of January considering that the man that tested positive in Careggi this morning arrived here the 6th of January.

 

[Nomad]

Things getting worse in S. Korea; Cases near 1,000, Deaths @ 11, Crisis-Reponse Coordinator commits suicide:

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

First confirmed case in Switzerland:

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[Nirvana]

In the evening press conference from Lombardia local government that I've just watched they said the central government prevented them from releasing today's deaths data but when a journalist asked if there were any they answered "many".

Other than that they confirmed that they tested 1800 people but the positives have risen to close 300.

 

[BullsFan22]

I am not one to panic about the spread of any virus, but this could really skyrocket if not dealt with properly.

To me it seems like authorities are either unprepared/incompetent, don't care as much as they should/are underestimating the danger or they are selfish. Of course if an Italian was in China in the region where the virus first broke last month, there is a chance that person picked it up unknowingly and it may have taken that person a while to figure it out. Though you'd think if they did pick it up, they'd see the symptoms fairly quickly. Maybe some show the symptoms of having the virus more easily or quickly.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Lombardia's governor said they'll stop testing people except the ones in serious state and who is close to them and has fever, looks like they want to stop the rise in number but in this way we return in full laxness mode.

Another incredible show of laxness is coming from Liguria, the governor said that a woman infected has gone to Albenga hospital and no one has put in action the protocol so the personnel could be infected, the same woman was in an hotel in Alassio since the 11th of February and came from Lombardia, I wonder how many people could have been infected in the meantime.

Isn't it pretty much useless to thest those who aren't showing symptoms because you can't trace it durning the incubation time?

 

[Nirvana]

Isn't it pretty much useless to thest those who aren't showing symptoms because you can't trace it durning the incubation time?

From what I've understood there are the "portatori sani" and that ones have to be found.

 

[djpbaltimore]

"Ultimately, we expect we will see community spread in this country," Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters.

"It's not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but rather more of a question of exactly when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illness," she said.

One bit of encouraging news is that Singapore has been relatively spared by CoV. This could indicate that temperature and humidity could be playing a protective role as with regular cold and flu season. Not the only interpretation, but I think many people trying to contain this can't wait for summer to arrive.