Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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More news from Idaho: This is rumor that I can not confirm yet, but Walgreens will give shots to people waiting at the end of the day after they return from vaccinating a SC facility or doing targeted group vaccinations. If they are using up vaccine that is nearing the end of its "out of freezer time" this is a great idea, better to give it to people than to toss it. It might not be a bad idea to take some of it to the homeless shelters too (maybe they have).

Ada County just added an R-extremists politician/attorney to the health board...wait for it...over an epidemiologist (voted by a three person commission of two Rs and one D).
 
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My only question is about his statement that people got Covid after their first shot. Did they get it after or already have it when they got their shot?
I suspect we'd need to know when after the shot they got it. If it was closer to when they'd get the second shot and not right after the first that would say they didn't have it before. It doesn't say. If I remember right Pfizer has said the first dose doesn't start to do anything until close to the second dose.
 
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About two dozen NH patients in Norway died after being vaccinated with Pfizer. The question is whether this many people out of a large group, 40,000, I think, would have died from that population over that time period, anyway. As has been noted before, when you vaccinate a very large number of people, particularly old people with conditions, you expect a certain amount of baseline deaths.

But the anti-VAXers will jump all over this.

 
Flash news. There was 57 % share of british strain from mass testing in Trencin, Slovakia at December. I think it was right before Christmas. I am afraid it is already most significant here. Restrictions to UK in late December were completely unnecessary and way to late.
 
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I am more than confused. They vaccinate like crazy they have lockdown and they still have record numbers in infections. It is weird as hell.
It may just be a bit too early though. Israel started vaccination a month ago, and it was reported that it takes approximately two weeks (~12 days) for the vaccine to show first effects. And the first shot was always supposed to give only ~50% security
 
This will be one of the most challenging operational efforts ever undertaken by our country,” Biden said on Friday. “You have my word that we will manage the hell out of this operation.”

Biden’s word? He doesn’t even know where he is.

Loosen the restrictions on who can get vaccinated (and when).

Lololololozzzzzzzz. Tell that to Cuomo.

Mobilize more medical personnel to deliver the vaccinations.

You mean the one’s stretched to the breaking point with their workload now?

And use the might of the federal government to increase the vaccine supply by manufacturing whatever is needed

You mean like what’s being done now. Okey dokey.

NY Times, Ezra Klein. It’s as if both only appeal to those truly not having ever paid attention..
Yet you give your boy trump the traitor a pass..he's had 12 months to do something yet all he's done is spread 'the big lie', attempt a coup, spark an insurrection...along with doing nothing that results in a country with 4% of the population with 25% of the globe's infections and deaths.

I have an idea, let's wait till after noon Eastern today...trump the traitor's 'record' is there for everybody to see.

At least trump will have a band, red carpet and a 'salute'...the ignorant, racist, sexist pig...donnie the dope........please....go....away....and take the likes of the drunk weasel guiliani, your inbred children, with ya...
 

Chris Gadsden

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Let America’s rehabilitation begin.

Good morning. We explain why the vaccine news is better than you may think.

Early in the pandemic, many health experts — in the U.S. and around the world — decided that the public could not be trusted to hear the truth about masks. Instead, the experts spread a misleading message, discouraging the use of masks.

Their motivation was mostly good. It sprung from a concern that people would rush to buy high-grade medical masks, leaving too few for doctors and nurses.


Wait, what??

Right now, public discussion of the vaccines is full of warnings about their limitations: They’re not 100 percent effective. Even vaccinated people may be able to spread the virus. And people shouldn’t change their behavior once they get their shots.

These warnings have a basis in truth, just as it’s true that masks are imperfect. But the sum total of the warnings is misleading, as I heard from multiple doctors and epidemiologists last week.

“It’s driving me a little bit crazy,” Dr. Ashish Jha, dean of the Brown School of Public Health, told me.

We’re underselling the vaccine,” Dr. Aaron Richterman, an infectious-disease specialist at the University of Pennsylvania, said.

“It’s going to save your life — that’s where the emphasis has to be right now,” Dr. Peter Hotez of the Baylor College of Medicine said.

The Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are “essentially 100 percent effective against serious disease,” Dr. Paul Offit, the director of the Vaccine Education Center at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said. “It’s ridiculously encouraging.”



So, the cynic in me is questioning the timing of this messaging. It is the NY Times. Had the Country had an honest press perhaps the percentage of people willing to be vaccinated would be significantly higher. But we have a press with massive corporate interests and feed the saps a steady diet of propaganda. Sad but true.

Why are many experts conveying a more negative message?

Again, their motivations are mostly good. As academic researchers, they are instinctively cautious, prone to emphasizing any uncertainty. Many may also be nervous that vaccinated people will stop wearing masks and social distancing, which in turn could cause unvaccinated people to stop as well. If that happens, deaths would soar even higher.

But the best way to persuade people to behave safely usually involves telling them the truth. “Not being completely open because you want to achieve some sort of behavioral public health goal — people will see through that eventually,” Richterman said. The current approach also feeds anti-vaccine skepticism and conspiracy theories.


Wow. Really? Who would have thought that?

We should immediately be more aggressive about mask-wearing and social distancing because of the new virus variants. We should vaccinate people as rapidly as possible — which will require approving other Covid vaccines when the data justifies it.

People who have received both of their vaccine shots, and have waited until they take effect, will be able to do things that unvaccinated people cannot — like having meals together and hugging their grandchildren. But until the pandemic is defeated, all Americans should wear masks in public, help unvaccinated people stay safe and contribute to a shared national project of saving every possible life.


Clarity can be so clear sometimes. Then again, we have inbred political correctness tattooed on too many leaders foreheads. Cuomo, Newsom, others.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/18/briefing/donald-trump-pardon-phil-spector-coronavirus-deaths.html
 
Pfizer is cutting delivery of vaccines in Europe and Canada the next two weeks. To reorganize their Belgian plant for faster production, BUT the reason why they are getting away with it legally is that they now count the additional sixth dose in each container as well. So, they can deliver less and still abide their contractual obligations. That's quite cynical. Belgium now for instance had to delay vaccination of hospital staff (the second in line to get the vaccine) last-minute to ensure the care homes have enough doses first.
 
So, the cynic in me is questioning the timing of this messaging. It is the NY Times. Had the Country had an honest press perhaps the percentage of people willing to be vaccinated would be significantly higher. But we have a press with massive corporate interests and feed the saps a steady diet of propaganda. Sad but true.

Again, their motivations are mostly good. As academic researchers, they are instinctively cautious, prone to emphasizing any uncertainty. Many may also be nervous that vaccinated people will stop wearing masks and social distancing, which in turn could cause unvaccinated people to stop as well. If that happens, deaths would soar even higher.

But the best way to persuade people to behave safely usually involves telling them the truth. “Not being completely open because you want to achieve some sort of behavioral public health goal — people will see through that eventually, Richterman said. The current approach also feeds anti-vaccine skepticism and conspiracy theories.
You have this all wrong. The reason for vaccine hesitancy is not the mainstream media where the vaccine stories have been positively glowing. It is that many people get their news from randos on facebook, mommy bloggers, or grifters like Del Bigtree. If the press has a fault, it is sensationalizing rare side effects of the vaccines. The media you consume practically ignores that there is an outbreak going on. Plus antivax ramblings by Swanson frozen food heir Tucker Carlson and Alex Berenson. Do you suppose that leads to less urgency to be vaccinated? Look up a poll that classifies vaccine willingness by party and you will see that I am right.

The second part is also wrong. Scientists don't have the data to make a claim about post vaccine transmission, so I don't understand why you want scientists to become pundits and start making ironclad predictions. We've discussed before about the limitation of the clinical trials in that regard. They weren't designed to answer this question. We started vaccinating people widely last month, most haven't even reached immunity yet, so the data is just not there to make a claim. Also, people don't listen to the scientists because people prefer to consume a steady diet of easily digestible BS. Don't pretend any of these things actually breakthrough into the real world. People will not see through it as evidenced by the false reality so many people have created about things like QANON. Though it is a great argument for bad faith purveyors like Swanson frozen food heir Tucker Carlson.

On the vaccine front, the 100m doses promised in the first quarter by Moderna is not going to happen.
View: https://twitter.com/bijans/status/1351900636544196608
 
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Chris Gadsden

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You have this all wrong. The reason for vaccine hesitancy is not the mainstream media where the vaccine stories have been positively glowing.
I'm happy to trot out the headlines going back to when Cuomo and Newsom were threatening not to distribute the vaccine because of pre-election politics. I'm old enough to remember this back in the summer (there's more if you look);

Insights from Merck CEO Ken Frazier
On vaccine development

“I think when people tell the public that there's going to be a vaccine by the end of 2020, they do a grave disservice
to the public.”


“Let me just give you one data point. In the last
quarter century, there have only been seven, truly
new vaccines introduced globally at the clinical
practice... Merck has four, the rest of the world has three.”

“My view is unless all of us are safe, none of us are safe.”



The media you consume practically ignores that there is an outbreak going on.
Well now I'm intrigued. Please tell me the media I consume. Be specific.

Plus antivax ramblings
... of Bobby Kennedy Jr, that bulwark of conservatism.

The second part is also wrong
Dude, the NY Times is already sanitizing the new admin and the term hasn't even started yet.
 
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I'm happy to trot out the headlines going back to when Cuomo and Newsom were threatening not to distribute the vaccine because of pre-election politics.

Well now I'm intrigued. Please tell me the media I consume. Be specific.

... of Bobby Kennedy Jr, that bulwark of conservatism.
I guess you didn't want to google. Here are one set of numbers. Scroll down to Figure 3. Tell me again how the lowest group is influenced by what is on CNN? If everyone listened to Sanjay Gupta, the world would be a better place right now.


Media that uses BOM as a trope.

Did RFK jr get his own Fox nation special like Berenson? Or appear regularly on Swanson Frozen Food heir's TV show like Berenson. But, his takes on COVID and vaccines have been terrible too. I don't see him appear regularly anywhere AFAIK for valid reasons.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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More or less influential than this clown?

“Frankly, I’m not going to trust the federal government’s opinion and I wouldn’t recommend to New Yorkers based on the federal government’s opinion (sic). . . . New York State will have its own review,” the governor insisted. “When the federal government is finished with their review and says it’s safe. We’re going to put together our own review committee headed by the Department of Health that will advise me—we have the best hospitals and research facilities on the globe in this State.”
So instead of relying on the FDA, which has been evaluating drug safety and effectiveness for 60 years, Cuomo will rely on a state Department of Health that has no expertise in evaluating clinical trials to assess the safety and efficacy of new products.
 
Pfizer is cutting delivery of vaccines in Europe and Canada the next two weeks. To reorganize their Belgian plant for faster production, BUT the reason why they are getting away with it legally is that they now count the additional sixth dose in each container as well. So, they can deliver less and still abide their contractual obligations. That's quite cynical. Belgium now for instance had to delay vaccination of hospital staff (the second in line to get the vaccine) last-minute to ensure the care homes have enough doses first.
yeah, over here (in the part of Germany I live in) it means new vaccinations are on hold for the remainder of the month, only 2nd shots are still administered. Moderna basically has no availability either, so far Germany got 60.000 doses only, and it won't be more than two million in total till the end of March.

At the beginning of the year the German health minister had announced that everyone would get an offer to get vaccinated by summer, but it looks more and more unlikely already
 
My only question is about his statement that people got Covid after their first shot. Did they get it after or already have it when they got their shot?
There's not much protection at all with only 1 dose of the Pfizer (or Moderna) vaccine. You need the second dose to get real protection.

You have this all wrong. The reason for vaccine hesitancy is not the mainstream media where the vaccine stories have been positively glowing. It is that many people get their news from randos on facebook, mommy bloggers, or grifters like Del Bigtree. If the press has a fault, it is sensationalizing rare side effects of the vaccines. The media you consume practically ignores that there is an outbreak going on. Plus antivax ramblings by Swanson frozen food heir Tucker Carlson and Alex Berenson. Do you suppose that leads to less urgency to be vaccinated? Look up a poll that classifies vaccine willingness by party and you will see that I am right.

The second part is also wrong. Scientists don't have the data to make a claim about post vaccine transmission, so I don't understand why you want scientists to become pundits and start making ironclad predictions. We've discussed before about the limitation of the clinical trials in that regard. They weren't designed to answer this question. We started vaccinating people widely last month, most haven't even reached immunity yet, so the data is just not there to make a claim. Also, people don't listen to the scientists because people prefer to consume a steady diet of easily digestible BS. Don't pretend any of these things actually breakthrough into the real world. People will not see through it as evidenced by the false reality so many people have created about things like QANON. Though it is a great argument for bad faith purveyors like Swanson frozen food heir Tucker Carlson.

On the vaccine front, the 100m doses promised in the first quarter by Moderna is not going to happen.
View: https://twitter.com/bijans/status/1351900636544196608
I mostly agree, although there is also hesitancy in the African American community due to history of experimentation and other issues.

yeah, over here (in the part of Germany I live in) it means new vaccinations are on hold for the remainder of the month, only 2nd shots are still administered. Moderna basically has no availability either, so far Germany got 60.000 doses only, and it won't be more than two million in total till the end of March.

At the beginning of the year the German health minister had announced that everyone would get an offer to get vaccinated by summer, but it looks more and more unlikely already
More proof that we need more vaccines that work well. Fingers crossed the Johnson & Johnson vaccine's phase 3 trial shows similar results to what their phase 1 and 2 trial results showed. If it does, their vaccine would be hugely helpful.
 
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yeah, over here (in the part of Germany I live in) it means new vaccinations are on hold for the remainder of the month, only 2nd shots are still administered. Moderna basically has no availability either, so far Germany got 60.000 doses only, and it won't be more than two million in total till the end of March.

At the beginning of the year the German health minister had announced that everyone would get an offer to get vaccinated by summer, but it looks more and more unlikely already
Same here. A week or so ago, we were told that the 70% goal could be reached by June or July. Pfizer will increase their production and also have the new German facility to help, but it'll also depend very much on AstraZeneca and J&J.
 
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Chris Gadsden

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I have an idea, let's wait till after noon Eastern today..
Might be fun to compare the horrific rioting going at today's inauguration to the riots 4-years ago.


People will not see through it as evidenced by the false reality so many people have created about things like QANON.
You forgot to add the hundreds still Congress who still think there was BOM/Russia collusion. Even Pelosi thinks the Russians directed BOM to send followers to storm the Capitol.

Former secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, have suggested that Donald Trump might have been in contact with Russian president Vladimir Putin on the day of the deadly riots at the US Capitol, and called for a “9/11-type commission” to investigate the events of 6 January.
Speaker Pelosi was in conversation with Ms Clinton for the podcast ‘You and Me Both’ on Monday, when the former secretary of state said she would love to see Mr Trump’s phone to see if he had been talking to Mr Putin on 6 January — the day of the riots.

Ms Pelosi responded by saying “Putin wants to undermine democracy” of America and with Mr Trump “all roads lead to Putin”. She said the Capitol riots were a “gift to Putin” and the people who stormed the building were “Putin puppets.”



QANON? Pfffffft. The very politicians you cheer on who 1) Have the actual power, are 2) Crazy. Incredibly crazy. Freaking lunatic crazy.

But Biden is going to 'manage the hell' out of all things COVID. Ok then.
 
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yeah, over here (in the part of Germany I live in) it means new vaccinations are on hold for the remainder of the month, only 2nd shots are still administered. Moderna basically has no availability either, so far Germany got 60.000 doses only, and it won't be more than two million in total till the end of March.

At the beginning of the year the German health minister had announced that everyone would get an offer to get vaccinated by summer, but it looks more and more unlikely already
What is the holdup on AZ? Are they waiting for more data? The other one not mentioned so far is Novavax. Their trial in the UK is supposed to end soon and their platform looked really good in the early trials. They are struggling to enroll 65+ people in their big US trial, because most are waiting to get the approved vaccines. They are also struggling with production allegedly, but in a few months that might be a good source since they are unlikely to get approval here any time soon.
I mostly agree, although there is also hesitancy in the African American community due to history of experimentation and other issues.
Good point. That is true.
Same here. A week or so ago, we were told that the 70% goal could be reached by June or July. Pfizer will increase their production and also have the new German facility to help, but it'll also depend very much on AstraZeneca and J&J.
The word going around is that J&J news is tomorrow.
 
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yeah, over here (in the part of Germany I live in) it means new vaccinations are on hold for the remainder of the month, only 2nd shots are still administered. Moderna basically has no availability either, so far Germany got 60.000 doses only, and it won't be more than two million in total till the end of March.

At the beginning of the year the German health minister had announced that everyone would get an offer to get vaccinated by summer, but it looks more and more unlikely already
AZ will be crucial for Europe. It will help significantly for pace if they will aprove it soon.
 
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What is the holdup on AZ? Are they waiting for more data? The other one not mentioned so far is Novavax. Their trial in the UK is supposed to end soon and their platform looked really good in the early trials. They are struggling to enroll 65+ people in their big US trial, because most are waiting to get the approved vaccines. They are also struggling with production allegedly, but in a few months that might be a good source since they are unlikely to get approval here any time soon.
Good point. That is true.

The word going around is that J&J news is tomorrow.

At least in the US Novavax is currently enrolling for their phase 3 trial. For AZ both the EU and FDA said they needed more information and the FDA specifically said with the odd data they had they needed information on the full US Phase 3 trial data. Don't know if it's true or not, but I had heard that at least part of the US Trial AZ was doing 2 months between the doses instead of 1, but don't know if that's true or not. I hope it is so we can get some real data on how much of a difference pushing the second dose back a month makes.

I hope J&J released their news tomorrow....well have been hoping for it to be released this week, although figured it wouldn't be released today.
 
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