Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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I find all these reports super encouraging,but I have to wonder about putting out a fire on one end of the world and letting it burn out of control on the other end.
Lots of things I have seen suggest that Brazil and S.Africa as just two examples may develop multiple variations of the virus if left unchecked. Most of Africa,Central and South America are not even started with vaccine distribution campaigns. This maybe an oversimplification, but in the past I have read about antibiotic resistance in some super monster bacteria strains that scientists contribute to lack of treatment,improper treatment, and over treatment using antibiotics for anything,everything,all the time on everyone.
I hope that the western countries efforts are effective,but I can't help but worry about a very,very small world where travel,import and export by air,water,train all would be logical hitch hiking roots for different variants..
Except for N.Korea because they don't have any virus cases. That's what they said..
 
I find all these reports super encouraging,but I have to wonder about putting out a fire on one end of the world and letting it burn out of control on the other end.
Lots of things I have seen suggest that Brazil and S.Africa as just two examples may develop multiple variations of the virus if left unchecked. Most of Africa,Central and South America are not even started with vaccine distribution campaigns. This maybe an oversimplification, but in the past I have read about antibiotic resistance in some super monster bacteria strains that scientists contribute to lack of treatment,improper treatment, and over treatment using antibiotics for anything,everything,all the time on everyone.
I hope that the western countries efforts are effective,but I can't help but worry about a very,very small world where travel,import and export by air,water,train all would be logical hitch hiking roots for different variants..
Except for N.Korea because they don't have any virus cases. That's what they said..
 
It appears the Merck is contracting with J&J to help manufacture the J&J Covid vaccine. Merck is not producing their vaccine as they stopped development of theirs a month or two ago. They are, however, still working on a treatment.

 
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I'm wondering how the vaccine drive will evolve in the US. There are a lot of differences between states, I'm aware. My feeling is that a relatively disorganized vaccination effort can still reach those early 20-30% relatively easily. You basically just need enough vaccines, and those people - the most informed, the most willing - will show up. However, the further on in vaccination, the more organisation is likely to play a role. You have to really reach people, and get them where you want them - not once, but twice (and with the correct spacing in time). The end of May vision of Biden seems fairly optimistic, in my view, but I'd like to hear of those actually living in the US. Maybe my perception is wrong.
 
I'm wondering how the vaccine drive will evolve in the US. There are a lot of differences between states, I'm aware. My feeling is that a relatively disorganized vaccination effort can still reach those early 20-30% relatively easily. You basically just need enough vaccines, and those people - the most informed, the most willing - will show up. However, the further on in vaccination, the more organisation is likely to play a role. You have to really reach people, and get them where you want them - not once, but twice (and with the correct spacing in time). The end of May vision of Biden seems fairly optimistic, in my view, but I'd like to hear of those actually living in the US. Maybe my perception is wrong.
I agree with you that it gets harder and harder to get people. That's where a single dose helps because you only have to see them once. Biden's vision is optimistic, but based on things that I've read, I think that those who want a vax will be able to get one by the end of May.

The new BIG problem is states like TX declaring C19 safe, and opening 100%. I just can't see how this isn't going to lead to a big spike.
 
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I agree with you that it gets harder and harder to get people. That's where a single dose helps because you only have to see them once. Biden's vision is optimistic, but based on things that I've read, I think that those who want a vax will be able to get one by the end of May.

The new BIG problem is states like TX declaring C19 safe, and opening 100%. I just can't see how this isn't going to lead to a big spike.
There was a graphic I saw yesterday where states like Arkansas only had 35% of the population left who wanted to get the vaccine. States like Maryland and Massachusetts were around 70%. So, there is quite a bit of regional variation. It will interesting how that effects distribution once you give it to the most eager people and demand starts to wane in some places and not others. Overall, with the big boost in vaccine supply over the next two months I agree that everyone who wants one will be able to get one by the end of May. Then becomes the hard part to convince the holdouts of the value of getting it. IMO, Biden's aim is only optimistic if you think most adults will want to get the vaccine. I don't think we can vaccinate all adults by the end of May.

I get my first dose tomorrow. I don't know which brand and I don't really care at this point.
 
The new BIG problem is states like TX declaring C19 safe, and opening 100%. I just can't see how this isn't going to lead to a big spike.
You don't know if there's going to be a big spike - maybe you're hoping for one. The virus has petered out - cases and hospitalizations have plummeted just about everywhere. No need for anymore fearmongering - time to move on and rebuild this damaged economy.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/GregAbbott_TX/status/1366846908480815106


As I mentioned before, if people weren't wearing masks here in Denver you wouldn't know there's a pandemic. All the popular restaurants in town are crowded, especially on weekends, gyms are getting crowded as more members are coming back, small businesses are picking up, the major chain stores are packed, and the roads are full of traffic again - just like it was pre-Covid. And no one is really talking about Covid anymore - it's as if they have stopped watching the MSM. Lol.
 
Overall, with the big boost in vaccine supply over the next two months I agree that everyone who wants one will be able to get one by the end of May. Then becomes the hard part to convince the holdouts of the value of getting it.
It's called "Informed Consent" and a personal choice:


We argued this before and I thought you honored informed consent and respect those who choose to decline the vaccines? Have you changed your mind now - you sound like you don't want people to have a choice?

These vaccines come with risks. People should be able to evaluate the risks vs benefits and make a personal choice for themselve free of pressure & coercion from the pro-vax medical community.

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1366796868802461705
 
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Real covid deaths vs. reported ones. I found this article very interesting (i.e. forget world-o-meter etc.):
World-o-meter is fine for tracking statistics in developed nations. the article highlights that numbers in the rest of the world or where data is not freely shared or tracked are likely understated. I think we already knew that. Excess deaths seem to track official Covid deaths fairly closely in all the developed country charts.
 
Reading about Brazil's situation it reminds us, again; politicians should STFU and let experts handle the situation. One solution I can think of: let all Texans that don't want to risk it to move out in the next few days with a C19 test. Then close the Texas border and let it be the country they've always wanted. One that lets corporate interests cripple infrastructure and then flee to bankruptcy when the inevitable happens. DeSantis in FLA is going the same direction as he bends over to kiss someone's Ring while hoping for a GOP presidential shot. These guys are going down in history as the biggest as*holes ever.
 
World-o-meter is fine for tracking statistics in developed nations. the article highlights that numbers in the rest of the world or where data is not freely shared or tracked are likely understated. I think we already knew that. Excess deaths seem to track official Covid deaths fairly closely in all the developed country charts.
Well...

Serbia: 3200 deaths reported, excess mortality 16200 (i.e. 5x higher)
Italy: 54000 deaths reported, excess mortality 92500 (i.e. 75% higher)
Netherlands: 14500 reported, excess mortality 20000 (i.e. 35% higher)
USA: 360000 reported, excess mortality 450000 (i.e. 25% higher)

The thing is, different countries follow different criteria, and worldometer etc. just all lump them all together. This is one of the basic scientific no-go's. Same methodology, otherwise do not compare them 1 on 1.
 
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An Idaho politician has proposed a ban on mask use because "the science that she has seen indicates that masks actually cause more disease than they prevent".

The 'science' that she has seen is similar to the 'science' she has seen on climate change where 1000s of scientists generally agree on something, but one self taught flat earth 'scientist' spits something out, and that one is the 'science' she goes with. They love to use the word science, but they just don't like to actually use science.

EDIT: Another of her quotes:
"Republican Rep. Karey Hanks said she had done research “on the physical and emotional and even mental injuries to our bodies, and possibly even our souls, as healthy individuals are required to wear these masks.”
-hmm...she's been doing soul research!
 
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Well...

Serbia: 3200 deaths reported, excess mortality 16200 (i.e. 5x higher)
Italy: 54000 deaths reported, excess mortality 92500 (i.e. 75% higher)
Netherlands: 14500 reported, excess mortality 20000 (i.e. 35% higher)
USA: 360000 reported, excess mortality 450000 (i.e. 25% higher)

The thing is, different countries follow different criteria, and worldometer etc. just all lump them all together. This is one of the basic scientific no-go's. Same methodology, otherwise do not compare them 1 on 1.
You are cherry picking. My comment was broadly correct. e.g. Switzerland and Australia. The point is we know how serious Covid-19 has been, more catastrophizing which I have noticed frequently on here doesn't help anyone. Plus excess deaths can occur in any year before Covid came along so it doesn't mean they are linked to the pandemic. The focus now needs to be on rolling out the vaccine's around the world as fast as possible and put this behind us. Thankfully we are all talking about vaccines now as one year ago we worried there might never be.
 
Right now where I live it's still almost impossible to get any vaccine. There is no easy way to sign up and even though the state has opened up vaccines to school staff, and next week to essential personnel, most health care workers who have been eligible still can't get it. The big metro areas are doing ok and better once they put a stop to out of staters coming here to get the vaccine. If I want the vaccine any time before the end summer at this rate I'll need to use the address for the apt we have in Durham to get it instead of the house here at the coast. Oh and in NC drug stores/pharmacies do not have the vaccine. The only places to get it are hospitals and mass vaccination clinics/sites.
 
You are cherry picking. My comment was broadly correct. e.g. Switzerland and Australia. The point is we know how serious Covid-19 has been, more catastrophizing which I have noticed frequently on here doesn't help anyone. Plus excess deaths can occur in any year before Covid came along so it doesn't mean they are linked to the pandemic. The focus now needs to be on rolling out the vaccine's around the world as fast as possible and put this behind us. Thankfully we are all talking about vaccines now as one year ago we worried there might never be.
You are correct that excess deaths occur every year, not just in this pandemic year, but not to the degree we are seeing now. It is safe to assume that much of the excess death is COVID-19 directly while some of it is indirect because of the pandemic (ie: a heart attack dies at home because they never made it to the hospital due to all medical transport being backed up).

I agree, I can't wait until we get to a place where C19 is just one of the viruses that we deal with like others (ie: cold, flu).
 
The big drug stores/pharmacies here still haven't gotten any of the vaccines. However, one of the small ones that has maybe 6 to 8 stores in the eastern part of the state has gotten some for 4 of their locations. Although the state technically isn't opening up vaccine to essential personnel until next week, due to still open appointments the pharmacy has opened up their sports for tomorrow to essential personnel or to anyone who's been working for the past several months (including retail that doesn't appear to be part of essential personnel but are open) to get all their spots filled. I managed to snag one of those appointments for tomorrow. I'll be getting the Moderna option. They said they will be making appointments for the second dose when you get the first one.
 

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