Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

Page 243 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
There are signs in the wastewater data that there might be a new wave growing here in the US. Very doubtful that it would be near as bad as the last one, but with the variants on the rise, spring break on the horizon, and a growing sense of complacency over the month-long decline in infections, the conditions seem ripe for more problems. Our vaccination rate has risen to ~1.5 million per day, but we really should continue pushing the envelope on this.
 
What do you expect from the authorities - American's can't expect to keep their children doing online learning for another 12 to 24 months until we reach a level of herd immunity - This applies to any working people - Many will be vaccinated long before their families - Do they stop working ?
I expect them to wait until Sept to send kids back full (in most places). That will allow most Americans (adult and some kids by then) to get a vaccine if they want. I don't know where you got 12 to 24 months because most of the projections are mid/late summer for all (adult) people to have access to vax.

I understand your point about vax because I'm living it. I got vaccinated because of my company, my wife probably won't get hers for another month. As to "do they stop working", maybe, but if they don't, they make adjustments. For example, the packing plants that my company works with have changed how they function, more spacing, more shifts/less people at a time, better HVAC systems, etc. One of the local hospitals offered household vax for ICU/ER staff.

You really can't compare schools to other work places for many reasons. The biggest being jamming 500, 1000, 2000 into small indoor spaces. Another reason being hygiene (used as an all encompassing term).
 
I expect them to wait until Sept to send kids back full (in most places). That will allow most Americans (adult and some kids by then) to get a vaccine if they want. I don't know where you got 12 to 24 months because most of the projections are mid/late summer for all (adult) people to have access to vax.

I understand your point about vax because I'm living it. I got vaccinated because of my company, my wife probably won't get hers for another month. As to "do they stop working", maybe, but if they don't, they make adjustments. For example, the packing plants that my company works with have changed how they function, more spacing, more shifts/less people at a time, better HVAC systems, etc. One of the local hospitals offered household vax for ICU/ER staff.

You really can't compare schools to other work places for many reasons. The biggest being jamming 500, 1000, 2000 into small indoor spaces. Another reason being hygiene (used as an all encompassing term).
You have to accept that it is a two speed world until everyone is vaccinated - In saying that if workplaces/societies continue with mitigation measures combined with vaccines reducing infectiousness of the virus makes the world a safer place. Was reading that America believes they can start summer camps in summer which suggests an air of confidence.
 
With warmer weather I spent today similarly as early days of pandemic in late march on the backyard and listening to music with my thoughts. I was thinking how it is even possible after almost a year be in worse state than before. :mad: It is more than frustrating. Ok it is not same for the whole world but for Slovakia but still. We live like in first months of pandemic with exception here is 200 times more deaths than spring 2020. I think from previous year only june to september was bearable to live here but still far from normal. Last three months from time before Christmas it is awfull. I dont know how it is possible despite of lockdown and low social contacts that hospitalisations still rising and deaths plateaued at ridiculous high avarage above 70 recent month. It is more than 12 per milion. I would hardly found country in the world with deaths that high that long. We do something horribly wrong. It cant be about unresponsible people. No nation can be so unresponsible.
 
seems that we in the EU may expect reduced deliveries by AstraZeneca even in Q2

yesterday there were news out of India that they will prioritize their own needs in vaccine production so it seems that this way of making up production shortfalls in Europe may not be realistic



and the way things are going, there should at least be a plan B instead of seemingly hoping that all contracted amounts will be delivered by end of Q3
 
Reactions: jmdirt
seems that we in the EU may expect reduced deliveries by AstraZeneca even in Q2

yesterday there were news out of India that they will prioritize their own needs in vaccine production so it seems that this way of making up production shortfalls in Europe may not be realistic



and the way things are going, there should at least be a plan B instead of seemingly hoping that all contracted amounts will be delivered by end of Q3

Maybe hope J&J and Novavax apply for EUA's soon?
 
Reactions: jmdirt
seems that we in the EU may expect reduced deliveries by AstraZeneca even in Q2

yesterday there were news out of India that they will prioritize their own needs in vaccine production so it seems that this way of making up production shortfalls in Europe may not be realistic



and the way things are going, there should at least be a plan B instead of seemingly hoping that all contracted amounts will be delivered by end of Q3
I bet there will be no reduced deliveries in UK :mad:
 
The latest on J&J production capacity is that they plan to deliver 20m to the US by the very end of March. How much they can ramp up in April is TBD, but I would not expect a lot at this stage. Novavax says that they should be able to make 150m per month by May, so I would also not expect a big surplus before then. They also just finished enrolling their big US trial. Given the need for 2 months of safety data, they won't be able to apply to the FDA before the beginning of May at the earliest.
FDA is recommending emergency use authorization for the J&J vaccine. Hearing at the end of the week.
We are starting to see more of their data. 7 deaths in the placebo group and 0 in the vaccine arm. Good reduction in hospitalization too.
 
Last edited:
Reactions: jmdirt and Koronin
in Germany, despite a major lack of availaible vaccines, only 15% of the delivered AZ doses have been used so far. Many people don't want it and cancel their appointments.
I'm not surprised people are refusing the AZ vaccine. That is the only one I've seen data from I'd also refuse. Moderna, Pfizer, J&J, Novavax I'd take, but no way am I taking the AZ one.
 
I expect them to wait until Sept to send kids back full (in most places). That will allow most Americans (adult and some kids by then) to get a vaccine if they want. I don't know where you got 12 to 24 months because most of the projections are mid/late summer for all (adult) people to have access to vax.

I understand your point about vax because I'm living it. I got vaccinated because of my company, my wife probably won't get hers for another month. As to "do they stop working", maybe, but if they don't, they make adjustments. For example, the packing plants that my company works with have changed how they function, more spacing, more shifts/less people at a time, better HVAC systems, etc. One of the local hospitals offered household vax for ICU/ER staff.

You really can't compare schools to other work places for many reasons. The biggest being jamming 500, 1000, 2000 into small indoor spaces. Another reason being hygiene (used as an all encompassing term).
Our 10 & 12 year old Grandkids go 2 days a week which is helping alot. Their parents have employment flexibility which is good as neither are eligible for vaccination. I am but there is no sign of Pfizer or Moderna in our neighborhood or county. We're exactly where we were 3 weeks ago and only the really lucky find a schedule spot to get a shot.
 
A translation from a Belgian news article today below.
By the way: the main reason why the US and the UK are 'ahead' in the vaccine drive is vaccine nationalism. The UK somehow made AZ their b***h, and in the US, you have emergency decrees that forbid companies like Pfizer from exporting until a certain threshold is reached (in the case, 100 million doses, I believe). Nice guys finish last.

(from De Morgen)
European mistrust of AstraZeneca runs deep: "We need those *** vaccines!"
If AstraZeneca's vaccine has a side effect, it's choleric rage. The European Commission, the EU countries and the European Parliament, they can drink the blood of the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company.

The Dutch MEP Esther de Lange compared AstraZeneca with a second-hand car salesman: you don't trust the delivery of a life-saving vaccine to that. The European government leaders also do not have a good word for the pharmaceutical company during their video corona summit. They feel disgusted by the multinational's breach of contract, which has put national vaccination programs at risk. “You would prefer to kick AstraZeneca out,” agrees a Commission official closely involved in the corona crisis. "But that doesn't help the public, on the contrary: we need those *** vaccines!"

Deep mistrust
How deep the mistrust of AstraZeneca is became clear on Tuesday evening. Pharmaceutical representatives consulted with the Member States and the Commission about the considerably less than promised deliveries - not over 100 million doses but 40 million - in the first quarter. During that conversation, AstraZeneca en passant showed a graph showing expected vaccine production at its European facilities for the second quarter - half of what was planned. Although the graph was not discussed - let alone the number of doses decided for the second quarter - an EU representative immediately took a photo of it. It ended up with the Reuters news agency, after which the "exclusive news" was a fact: AstraZeneca fails again! Later that evening, the company issued a statement that non-European sites also make vaccines for Europe. It is not surprising that confidence in AstraZeneca (despite its effective vaccine) has fallen below zero. First, the British-Swedish vaccine maker backed down from the contracted numbers of doses for the first three months of this year. Now doubts are being cast about the second quarter. Meanwhile, AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot claimed that the UK was receiving more vaccines because it had previously signed a contract - a lie, it turned out. And that London had a contractual right of priority is also a lie.

Penalties
Even the business-friendly European Christian Democrats are now sharpening their knives. Their leader Manfred Weber wants to exclude the company from European research subsidies if necessary. A ban on the export of AstraZeneca vaccines is also a good punitive measure, he says. His party colleague Peter Liese hopes that consumers will boycott all AstraZeneca products if the company continues to break its promises. Soriot and the CEOs of other vaccine makers will be put to the test in parliament on Thursday afternoon. Punitive measures may be good for the mind, but they do not immediately yield more vaccines. That is why EU leaders are committed to increasing vaccine production. Not an easy task - producing a vaccine is high-tech work; mistakes are disastrous - and not a one-off operation. The leaders want to lay the foundation for European vaccine development and production in the future. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will also present to leaders a number of tables showing the quantities of vaccines produced and exported in Europe. The still-confidential figures show that AstraZeneca, BioNTech / Pfizer and Moderna (the three approved vaccines in Europe) have delivered nearly 40.7 million vaccine doses to Member States to date. At the same time, pharmaceuticals exported nearly 19.2 million doses to non-EU countries, especially the United Kingdom (6 million doses). An export ban helps EU citizens, but also calls for countermeasures. The leaders are expected to leave this bazooka to rest for a while.
 
Our 10 & 12 year old Grandkids go 2 days a week which is helping alot. Their parents have employment flexibility which is good as neither are eligible for vaccination. I am but there is no sign of Pfizer or Moderna in our neighborhood or county. We're exactly where we were 3 weeks ago and only the really lucky find a schedule spot to get a shot.
That's how the school district is here: online school for everyone on Monday, and then half of the kids go to the school building on Tuesday and Thursday and the other half go on Wednesday and Friday. I hope that you can get a vax soon!
 
Reactions: Oldermanish
Another example of indoor exercise classes becoming super-spreader events. They were allowed to take masks off if they wanted to during exercise. Also provides a solid reminder what the 'lockdowns' were like in the fall here in the US. Minimal.

View: https://twitter.com/linseymarr/status/1364661446995542016
Just close gyms and tell people to find another way to keep fit. You simply can't do aerobic exercise properly wearing a mask.
 
There are signs in the wastewater data that there might be a new wave growing here in the US. Very doubtful that it would be near as bad as the last one, but with the variants on the rise, spring break on the horizon, and a growing sense of complacency over the month-long decline in infections, the conditions seem ripe for more problems. Our vaccination rate has risen to ~1.5 million per day, but we really should continue pushing the envelope on this.
Not sure how reliable an indicator these wastewater tests are? In Sydney Australia we had many reports of virus "fragments" being detected in wastewater but this didn't herald the beginning of a rise in cases. Current US daily cases are down to about 75,000 from the peak of 308,000 on January 8 likely the result of Thanksgiving. I also wonder what exactly is a virus "fragment"?

Fingers crossed for America that vaccination can keep a lid on the situation despite the lingering complacency. But knowing what America has endured I find it incredulous that anyone can still be complacent there.
 
Not sure how reliable an indicator these wastewater tests are? In Sydney Australia we had many reports of virus "fragments" being detected in wastewater but this didn't herald the beginning of a rise in cases. Current US daily cases are down to about 75,000 from the peak of 308,000 on January 8 likely the result of Thanksgiving. I also wonder what exactly is a virus "fragment"?

Fingers crossed for America that vaccination can keep a lid on the situation despite the lingering complacency. But knowing what America has endured I find it incredulous that anyone can still be complacent there.
The data can be noisy but it can also be a leading indicator for trends. The people who are doing it for the state of Massachusetts have shown that the levels track pretty closely with the actual confirmed case counts. Reliability may depend partially on the people doing the work. The last two days have seen an increase in case counts week over week for the state, so it bears watching. And with the Texas caveat noted below, it looks like the decrease in case counts across the country has plateaued at best. Where it goes from here is arguable, but it seems like the restrictions are only getting less restrictive, so I don't have much hope that we can avoid a fourth wave, but ymmv.

View: https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1364726821225259012
 
Reactions: Cookster15
Just close gyms and tell people to find another way to keep fit. You simply can't do aerobic exercise properly wearing a mask.
I'll reply to both of your post here:
RE aerobic exercise and masks: In the spring I did a two hour mountain bike ride wearing a two layer cotton mask just to see what it would be like. The best comparison is that it was like riding above 10,000 feet. So I would disagree with you that you can't do aerobic exercise properly with a mask on because it was actually an even better aerobic workout with one (perceived and physiologically). I'm OK with closing gyms though (I haven't been to the Y since mid March 2020).

RE complacency in the USA: never underestimate stupid. Plus, some people just don't want to be inconvenienced and COVID-19, physical distancing, masks, not going to bars, etc, is just to inconvenient for them.
 

ASK THE COMMUNITY

TRENDING THREADS