Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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I think this effectively means that Novavax will not be approved in the US based on the overseas trial data. They are struggling to keep their 60+ people in their US trial as is. AZ may be approved, but I doubt it ever gets used here (even if they had extra to spare).

View: https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1359983654420815873
I wish Novavax would get approved here. However I really hope AZ doesn't. Novavax appears to be equal to Pfizer and Moderna while AZ looks worse than J&J. With current production rates and the numbers of people getting vaccinated, it's still going to take years to vaccinate the entire US population and by then we'll need who knows how many additional boosters. So far the companies have not been able to meet production numbers. Currently NC is open for groups 1 and 2 but a lot of people in those groups can't get the vaccine. They are opening it up for group 3 early next month and it's going to be impossible to get a vaccine because there isn't enough and there isn't going to be enough for months. I doubt will have half the population vaccinated by June. Don't forget J&J is in the middle of the approval process and if approved (hearing date Feb 24) will start shipping doses by the beginning of March. They should get approved AND I think they need to be here for multiple reasons including much easier to ship the J&J one to rural areas and there are going to be people who are currently on the fence who may be willing to get a single dose vaccine compared to the 2 dose vaccines.
 
Melbourne is damn unlucky with the virus - Virus spread from quarantine via the use of a neubaliser - Doubt this is the only time a neubaliser has been used in a qurantine hotel - Perth has a leak of the British variant with no other infected - Brisbane has the same for 4 other cases - Melbourne has the same for 12 other cases and counting.
 
In Mexico as they struggle to do anything right and by most accounts has the worst pandemic response world wide...front line workers are being told that a second vaccine is likely months away, nowhere within the 21-25 day window for a second dose.
In San Diego a couple of old Sears locations are being used as super vaccine centers. Petco Park is also being used and the abandoned Chargers stadium just sits there..it looks like having a deep alternate list is key to success. Once the drugs are defrosted you have some time, any appointment no shows look like they are quickly replaced by people on a ready waiting list.
One thing that is funny,is that local news was incorrectly reporting that vaccine centers were asking for minimum identification \ eligibility info..honor system. When health care workers start making there way up long lines of cars w clipboards and tablets, a few dishonorable folks need to make a U-turn after they are discovered to not be part of any eligible group but instead thought just because they look old nobody would ask..
They had the cops and CHP on TV and radio saying don't get in line if you are not part of the group.causes traffic problems. So kind of a Disneyland, gotta be this tall to ride thing, only for adults
 
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In Mexico as they struggle to do anything right and by most accounts has the worst pandemic response world wide...front line workers are being told that a second vaccine is likely months away, nowhere within the 21-25 day window for a second dose.
In San Diego a couple of old Sears locations are being used as super vaccine centers. Petco Park is also being used and the abandoned Chargers stadium just sits there..it looks like having a deep alternate list is key to success. Once the drugs are defrosted you have some time, any appointment no shows look like they are quickly replaced by people on a ready waiting list.
One thing that is funny,is that local news was incorrectly reporting that vaccine centers were asking for minimum identification \ eligibility info..honor system. When health care workers start making there way up long lines of cars w clipboards and tablets, a few dishonorable folks need to make a U-turn after they are discovered to not be part of any eligible group but instead thought just because they look old nobody would ask..
They had the cops and CHP on TV and radio saying don't get in line if you are not part of the group.causes traffic problems. So kind of a Disneyland, gotta be this tall to ride thing, only for adults
The smaller city where I live is using an old K-Mart location (parking lot) as the only "mass" vaccination site. Actually outside the hospital I think it's the only place currently a person can get vaccinated. At least 1 of our local Walgreens should be getting the vaccine by the end of the month as an alternate location.
 
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Hard to understand why authorities are moving so slowly on this:
not to be a wet blanket here. You have to be cautious when introducing devices that require or produce high CFM outputs. Yes you can put stand alone purification systems all over,but during a smoke or fire condition, you need to be able to control air circulation. If you have a bunch of devices that are not controlled by the fire alarm you can have serious safety problems. Normally during a fire, smoke damper devices in the HVAC system will create a condition as to not pump smoke or fresh air into an alarm area. There are door locks that automatically drop so as to compartmentalize the fire or smoke.
If the air purifier units utilize a fan that created significant air flow that needs to be shut down in an emergency..so fart fans in the bathrooms don't usually need to be controlled, hood fans in kitchens of a certain size are dumped during fire..so if the fans used to scrub the air are small,not a big deal, but to move significant quantities of air usually require a bigger fan..
Lots of western countries have elaborate fire codes.
 
This is why we need more vaccines. Both just vaccines themselves along with more companies producing them. Just read something that AstraZeneca is saying it's going to take 6 to 9 months for them to rework their vaccine for the South African strain. Yet at the same time Pfizer and Moderna are both saying they can tweak their vaccines in about 3 months once they know the sequence of a strain their vaccines won't work against.

 
not to be a wet blanket here. You have to be cautious when introducing devices that require or produce high CFM outputs. Yes you can put stand alone purification systems all over,but during a smoke or fire condition, you need to be able to control air circulation. If you have a bunch of devices that are not controlled by the fire alarm you can have serious safety problems. Normally during a fire, smoke damper devices in the HVAC system will create a condition as to not pump smoke or fresh air into an alarm area. There are door locks that automatically drop so as to compartmentalize the fire or smoke.
If the air purifier units utilize a fan that created significant air flow that needs to be shut down in an emergency..so fart fans in the bathrooms don't usually need to be controlled, hood fans in kitchens of a certain size are dumped during fire..so if the fans used to scrub the air are small,not a big deal, but to move significant quantities of air usually require a bigger fan..
Lots of western countries have elaborate fire codes.
Thanks for that explanation!
 
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The experts in question have provided clarification for their quotes that were deliberately twisted, manipulated, and taken out of context by the NYT and echoed across all MSM outlets to fit their agenda, as expected.

@PeterDaszak - This was NOT my experience on @WHO mission. As lead of animal/environment working group I found trust & openness w/ my China counterparts. We DID get access to critical new data throughout. We DID increase our understanding of likely spillover pathways.
View: https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1360551108565999619


@TheaKFischer - This was NOT my experience either on the Epi-side. We DID build up a good relationsship in the Chinese/Int Epi-team! Allowing for heated arguments reflects a deep level of engagement in the room. Our quotes are intendedly twisted casting shadows over important scientific work.
View: https://twitter.com/TheaKFischer/status/1360590441817772034


@PeterDaszak - Hear! Hear! It's disappointing to spend time w/ journalists explaining key findings of our exhausting month-long work in China, to see our colleagues selectively misquoted to fit a narrative that was prescribed before the work began. Shame on you @nytimes !
View: https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1360591411469516801
 
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The experts in question have provided clarification for their quotes that were deliberately twisted, manipulated, and taken out of context by the NYT and echoed across all MSM outlets to fit their agenda, as expected.

@PeterDaszak - This was NOT my experience on @WHO mission. As lead of animal/environment working group I found trust & openness w/ my China counterparts. We DID get access to critical new data throughout. We DID increase our understanding of likely spillover pathways.
View: https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1360551108565999619


@TheaKFischer - This was NOT my experience either on the Epi-side. We DID build up a good relationsship in the Chinese/Int Epi-team! Allowing for heated arguments reflects a deep level of engagement in the room. Our quotes are intendedly twisted casting shadows over important scientific work.
View: https://twitter.com/TheaKFischer/status/1360590441817772034


@PeterDaszak - Hear! Hear! It's disappointing to spend time w/ journalists explaining key findings of our exhausting month-long work in China, to see our colleagues selectively misquoted to fit a narrative that was prescribed before the work began. Shame on you @nytimes !
View: https://twitter.com/PeterDaszak/status/1360591411469516801
There was a large team of scientists and the Australian Dominic Dwyer disagrees with the above statements it seems. He also has not refuted the NY Times report as he would have if he thought they had misquoted him. Three or four opinions doesn't speak for the entire team............
 
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There was a large team of scientists and the Australian Dominic Dwyer disagrees with the above statements it seems. He also has not refuted the NY Times report as he would have if he thought they had misquoted him. Three or four opinions doesn't speak for the entire team............
WRONG again. NYT told another blatant lie by quoting Dominic Dywer whom they claimed was part of the WHO team. Here Dwyer admits he was never on the team but part of a group of independent experts: “We go there as an international group and we're not part of the WHO, we're just independent experts.”


No points for guessing who hired and paid for these "independent experts". Thea Fischer who was actually on the WHO COVID origins team said the quoting of her out of context to convey a message exactly opposite to her experience was intentional (aka lying). NYT usually are subtle and crafty with their lies, but not here, these are bold faced lies, so much so that all the misquoted WHO experts have come out publicly to object. It's clear the angle for viewing the whole visit is to look for things which support distrust. This would include stories of China not cooperating or putting pressure on the experts.
 
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Anyone living in a country where the government are actually PUSHING the vitamine D narrative?
To me it seems it's:
  1. Keep distance
  2. Wash your hands
  3. Stay home if sick
  4. Use mask
is the story being told.

I've seen excuses before saying correlation doesn't prove causation, but that narrative should be put to bed now surely?
Latest I've seen is a big study in Barcelona that found treating patients with Calcifediol reduced chance of death with a whopping 64%!
This study proves causation as patients were randomly assigned to either treatment or control group, and only difference in treatment between the 2 groups was wether they were treated with Calcifediol or not .
The study is still awaiting peer-review, but pre-print can be found here.
For those not into reading science papers, Dr. John Campbell goes through the study here.
 
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I've seen excuses before saying correlation doesn't prove causation, but that narrative should be put to bed now surely?
Latest I've seen is a big study in Barcelona that found treating patients with Calcifediol reduced chance of death with a whopping 64%!
This study proves causation as patients were randomly assigned to either treatment or control group, and only difference in treatment between the 2 groups was wether they were treated with Calcifediol or not .
The study is still awaiting peer-review, but pre-print can be found here.
For those not into reading science papers, Dr. John Campbell goes through the study here.
If you read the paper, that is not actually how the patients were assigned. The patients were assigned by the ward that they were located in and it appears that the patients in the wards that did not get treatment had a significantly lower level of Vitamin D before the treatment even started. That is a red flag as it indicates that the wards are not randomly populated. It is broadly accepted that Vitamin D levels are associated with worse outcomes. The question is whether supplementation helps. Another red flag is that they did not do their statistics correctly based on how they designed the study. The correct statistical test suggests that it is possible that there is no benefit at all.

They couldn't even successfully balance by gender. There is a significantly higher proportion of men in the non-treatment arm. And we know that is also associated with worse outcomes.
 
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