• The Cycling News forum is still looking to add volunteer moderators with. If you're interested in helping keep our discussions on track, send a direct message to @SHaines here on the forum, or use the Contact Us form to message the Community Team.

    In the meanwhile, please use the Report option if you see a post that doesn't fit within the forum rules.

    Thanks!

Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

Page 240 - Get up to date with the latest news, scores & standings from the Cycling News Community.
Toggle sidebar Toggle sidebar
D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
3,967
1,836
16,680
Visit site
I said it at the time that the WHO was not really equipped to deliver an answer, so we should not be surprised that they reached the conclusion that was seen as the most likely one to virologists back in March/ April. It is a struggle to interpret from that article what tangible results they actually found. It does help me understand why the new conspiracy theory is that SARS2.0 came to the US from Europe in frozen food. IMO, not something to worry about.

Further research is also needed to determine the role played by cold chain food products in transmission, Prof Liang said.
Click to expand...

It should also be noted that it took years before the discovery of the intermediate species responsible for the SARS1.0 outbreak. And that was easier because now we have so much more penetrance of virus into animal species from humans to muddy the waters. The origin question is interesting and may be useful for future pandemics. But it is not going to effect how we handle this pandemic. Of course, knowing what SARS1.0 did had little effect on preventing SARS2.0, so even that is debatable. Knowing who to blame is a topic for a different forum.

I would suggest that the more important riddle to solve is what is happening in Manaus and why? It looks a lot like waning immunity from natural infection after 7-8 months combined with viral mutants making re-infection much more likely.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1358530756910399495
View: https://twitter.com/DanielGriffinMD/status/1358530756910399495
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: jmdirt
roundabout

roundabout

Jun 7, 2010
19,196
3,090
28,180
Visit site
Cookster15 said:
Covid-19 likely to have originated in an animal other than bats

Here's a link for those of us who aren't on Twitter.

2,341,521 global deaths to date as I write and this is the best explanation? So all this time and effort expended and they still don't know.
Click to expand...

Yes, let's look at the market, because it has not been done yet.

Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market has western and eastern sections, and 15 environmental specimens collected in the western section were positive for 2019-nCoV virus through RT-PCR testing and genetic sequencing analysis. Despite extensive searching, no animal from the market has thus far been identified as a possible source of infection.
Click to expand...

An Outbreak of NCIP (2019-nCoV) Infection in China — Wuhan, Hubei Province, 2019−2020

weekly.chinacdc.cn weekly.chinacdc.cn

IIRC in 2003 animals carrying SARS were found quite quickly at a wildlife market which some (many? don't remember) cases were connected to.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jmdirt and djpbaltimore
D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
3,967
1,836
16,680
Visit site
roundabout said:
IIRC in 2003 animals carrying SARS were found quite quickly at a wildlife market which some (many? don't remember) cases were connected to.
Click to expand...
That is a good recollection. From 2003.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Isolation and characterization of viruses related to the SARS coronavirus from animals in southern China - PubMed

A novel coronavirus (SCoV) is the etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). SCoV-like viruses were isolated from Himalayan palm civets found in a live-animal market in Guangdong, China. Evidence of virus infection was also detected in other animals (including a raccoon dog...
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
A novel coronavirus (SCoV) is the etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). SCoV-like viruses were isolated from Himalayan palm civets found in a live-animal market in Guangdong, China. Evidence of virus infection was also detected in other animals (including a raccoon dog, Nyctereutes procyonoides) and in humans working at the same market.
Click to expand...

I probably should've said that the civet was confirmed to be an intermediate species years later (2007) after more extensive analysis. Maybe this discovery owed to a little luck because the index cases were a lot more obvious and a lot less numerous. The proto SARS2.0 might've only had a transient existence in whatever mammal it bridged into humans from and might be extinct. Of course, there might be more data that we don't know about. One big problem is that the place where there needs to be more sampling is the same place that has the least interest in doing that sampling.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jmdirt
D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
3,967
1,836
16,680
Visit site
  • Like
Reactions: jmdirt
D

djpbaltimore

Jun 9, 2014
3,967
1,836
16,680
Visit site
  • Angry
  • Wow
Reactions: movingtarget, jmdirt and Koronin
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
12,196
3,228
23,180
Visit site
djpbaltimore said:
Looking at these numbers and it is really hard to imagine that more than 60% of US adults get the vaccine. All the metrics are starting to improve and I think the majority of the leaners in gray ultimately opt out as a result. I think Gottlieb is right that fewer people will get the vaccine than most people hoped.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359502384775405568
View: https://twitter.com/APNORC/status/1359502384775405568
Click to expand...

In other words, the US will never get to herd immunity, because it appears that having covid does not lead to much if any lasting immunity. Thus the rest of the world make get back to normal, but the US won't. However, I expect as companies make getting the vaccine a requirement to be hired, more will end up getting it. I expect some will make it a requirement of keeping employment.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: movingtarget and jmdirt
J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
7,813
6,416
23,180
Visit site
US News did a dishonest story about flu where they cherry picked the worst flu year and called those numbers "typical". But, they stated that only 925 cases had been reported this year (closer to 1,500 if you count all labs) which is a massive reduction in cases. Obviously social distancing/masks is a (big) part of that, and people not wanting to get a negative test/quarantine also contributes, but 25-30,000 less cases is shocking. Also of course, these number take time (a year) to be reported, and make their way to the data base, plus the flu season still has two months left so the numbers will grow some, but still.
 
  • Like
Reactions: movingtarget and Koronin
Mayomaniac

Mayomaniac

Apr 10, 2019
10,708
13,547
23,180
Visit site
jmdirt said:
US News did a dishonest story about flu where they cherry picked the worst flu year and called those numbers "typical". But, they stated that only 925 cases had been reported this year (closer to 1,500 if you count all labs) which is a massive reduction in cases. Obviously social distancing/masks is a (big) part of that, and people not wanting to get a negative test/quarantine also contributes, but 25-30,000 less cases is shocking. Also of course, these number take time (a year) to be reported, and make their way to the data base, plus the flu season still has two months left so the numbers will grow some, but still.
Click to expand...
The flu is also pretty much a non-factor in Europe this season, I guess social distancing, masks and all the other anti-covid measures are the reason.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jmdirt and Koronin
K

Keram

Oct 1, 2015
817
589
11,580
Visit site
The flu stats makes me think what Covid would do in normal winter when we almost wiped out flu with this measures but Covid is still strong despite of it. That makes me think that back to normal will be difficult even with vaccines unfortunetely. I think we will get some vaccine for Covid every year. But what about drop in worldwide cases? It is because of lockdowns across the world? We had lockdowns throught the globe and we havent seen such drop. We have sharp decline in 7 day average for mont. It is because of Europe dropping? My delusional mind telling me it is because Covid is leaving :D
 
J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
7,813
6,416
23,180
Visit site
Keram said:
The flu stats makes me think what Covid would do in normal winter when we almost wiped out flu with this measures but Covid is still strong despite of it. That makes me think that back to normal will be difficult even with vaccines unfortunetely. I think we will get some vaccine for Covid every year. But what about drop in worldwide cases? It is because of lockdowns across the world? We had lockdowns throught the globe and we havent seen such drop. We have sharp decline in 7 day average for mont. It is because of Europe dropping? My delusional mind telling me it is because Covid is leaving :D
Click to expand...
Put it in this perspective: our bodies have been developing immunity to influenza for hundreds of years, and we've been using vaccines to help our immune system for close to 100 years. Toss in that C19 is more virulent, and it is going to be a while before C19 is 'flu like' in our world (I'll likely be dead).
 
  • Like
Reactions: Koronin
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
12,196
3,228
23,180
Visit site
jmdirt said:
Put it in this perspective: our bodies have been developing immunity to influenza for hundreds of years, and we've been using vaccines to help our immune system for close to 100 years. Toss in that C19 is more virulent, and it is going to be a while before C19 is 'flu like' in our world (I'll likely be dead).
Click to expand...

Speaking of Vaccines, NC is opening up the ability to get vaccinated to everyone in group 3. Apparently teachers can start trying to get vaccinated starting about 2 before the rest of group 3. My husband is definitely part of that group. Me, who knows. I'm a vendor, I have paperwork saying I'm an essential employee and worked through the shutdown, but not idea if I'll actually be able to get vaccinated as part of group 3 or not. The more interesting part is, there are still people in groups 1 and 2 that want the vaccine that still haven't been able to get appointments for it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jmdirt
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
12,196
3,228
23,180
Visit site
This is interesting:
In the updated guidance, the CDC said such quarantining is not necessary for fully vaccinated people within three months of having received their last doses as long as they do not develop any symptoms. "Fully vaccinated" means that at least two weeks have passed since a person has received the second dose of a two-dose vaccine or one dose of a single-dose vaccine.

www.nbcnews.com

Fully vaccinated people don't need to quarantine if exposed to Covid, CDC says

Other recommendations to slow the spread of the coronavirus, like wearing masks and social distancing, still apply.
www.nbcnews.com www.nbcnews.com
 
  • Like
Reactions: jmdirt
J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
7,813
6,416
23,180
Visit site
Koronin said:
Speaking of Vaccines, NC is opening up the ability to get vaccinated to everyone in group 3. Apparently teachers can start trying to get vaccinated starting about 2 before the rest of group 3. My husband is definitely part of that group. Me, who knows. I'm a vendor, I have paperwork saying I'm an essential employee and worked through the shutdown, but not idea if I'll actually be able to get vaccinated as part of group 3 or not. The more interesting part is, there are still people in groups 1 and 2 that want the vaccine that still haven't been able to get appointments for it.
Click to expand...
Teachers are getting vaccinated in Idaho too. Obviously the main reason is to make teachers feel safer in the school, but what about their families? A vaccinated teacher might still bring C19 home to unvaccinated family members. A guy who I see on the trail almost daily got his vaccine very early on because his wife is an RN in the COVID wing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Koronin
J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
7,813
6,416
23,180
Visit site
A colleague who just read something about the very low levels of flu this season sent me an email to ask why mask are so effective at reducing flu, but not C19. I offered many of the things that we discuss on here. He also typed "it makes you wonder if masks are doing anything at all against C19". I proposed that if we are going to play 'what if', 3 million in the USA could be dead if we hadn't worn masks and practiced physical distancing. He agreed that playing what if isn't useful.
 
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
12,196
3,228
23,180
Visit site
jmdirt said:
Teachers are getting vaccinated in Idaho too. Obviously the main reason is to make teachers feel safer in the school, but what about their families? A vaccinated teacher might still bring C19 home to unvaccinated family members. A guy who I see on the trail almost daily got his vaccine very early on because his wife is an RN in the COVID wing.
Click to expand...

What about hospital workers who still aren't eligible to get vaccinated simply because they don't have contact with patients even they work in the hospitals. In NC they are part of group 3. I'm still having a hard time understanding how the non front line hospital workers (specifically those who are working full time in hospitals, the ones who fix the equipment) weren't part of group 2.
 
  • Like
Reactions: jmdirt
Koronin

Koronin

Oct 14, 2017
12,196
3,228
23,180
Visit site
djpbaltimore said:
I think this effectively means that Novavax will not be approved in the US based on the overseas trial data. They are struggling to keep their 60+ people in their US trial as is. AZ may be approved, but I doubt it ever gets used here (even if they had extra to spare).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359983654420815873
View: https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1359983654420815873
Click to expand...

I wish Novavax would get approved here. However I really hope AZ doesn't. Novavax appears to be equal to Pfizer and Moderna while AZ looks worse than J&J. With current production rates and the numbers of people getting vaccinated, it's still going to take years to vaccinate the entire US population and by then we'll need who knows how many additional boosters. So far the companies have not been able to meet production numbers. Currently NC is open for groups 1 and 2 but a lot of people in those groups can't get the vaccine. They are opening it up for group 3 early next month and it's going to be impossible to get a vaccine because there isn't enough and there isn't going to be enough for months. I doubt will have half the population vaccinated by June. Don't forget J&J is in the middle of the approval process and if approved (hearing date Feb 24) will start shipping doses by the beginning of March. They should get approved AND I think they need to be here for multiple reasons including much easier to ship the J&J one to rural areas and there are going to be people who are currently on the fence who may be willing to get a single dose vaccine compared to the 2 dose vaccines.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

TRENDING THREADS

Latest posts

Moderators online

Share this page

COMPANY
RESOURCES
FOLLOW
Top Bottom