Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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I think that there is \was kind of an unrealistic \ unreasonable expectation of the Defense Production Act. You can't just walk in a repurpose a factory to make complicated medicines. I remember seeing the upbeat stories about liquor distillers making hand sanitizer or the many masters of sewing machines making masks and other PPE. Drugs are turning out to be different.
speaking of drugs, I think I may require some after that Stupid Bowl..Congratulations Tampa
I might have typed this already, but a factory wouldn't get repurposed to make the vaccine, but all or the other stuff (vials, base ingredients/components, needles, syringes...).
 
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I said it at the time that the WHO was not really equipped to deliver an answer, so we should not be surprised that they reached the conclusion that was seen as the most likely one to virologists back in March/ April. It is a struggle to interpret from that article what tangible results they actually found. It does help me understand why the new conspiracy theory is that SARS2.0 came to the US from Europe in frozen food. IMO, not something to worry about.

Further research is also needed to determine the role played by cold chain food products in transmission, Prof Liang said.
It should also be noted that it took years before the discovery of the intermediate species responsible for the SARS1.0 outbreak. And that was easier because now we have so much more penetrance of virus into animal species from humans to muddy the waters. The origin question is interesting and may be useful for future pandemics. But it is not going to effect how we handle this pandemic. Of course, knowing what SARS1.0 did had little effect on preventing SARS2.0, so even that is debatable. Knowing who to blame is a topic for a different forum.

I would suggest that the more important riddle to solve is what is happening in Manaus and why? It looks a lot like waning immunity from natural infection after 7-8 months combined with viral mutants making re-infection much more likely.

View: https://twitter.com/DanielGriffinMD/status/1358530756910399495
 
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Covid-19 likely to have originated in an animal other than bats

Here's a link for those of us who aren't on Twitter.

2,341,521 global deaths to date as I write and this is the best explanation? So all this time and effort expended and they still don't know.
Yes, let's look at the market, because it has not been done yet.

Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market has western and eastern sections, and 15 environmental specimens collected in the western section were positive for 2019-nCoV virus through RT-PCR testing and genetic sequencing analysis. Despite extensive searching, no animal from the market has thus far been identified as a possible source of infection.

IIRC in 2003 animals carrying SARS were found quite quickly at a wildlife market which some (many? don't remember) cases were connected to.
 
IIRC in 2003 animals carrying SARS were found quite quickly at a wildlife market which some (many? don't remember) cases were connected to.
That is a good recollection. From 2003.

A novel coronavirus (SCoV) is the etiological agent of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). SCoV-like viruses were isolated from Himalayan palm civets found in a live-animal market in Guangdong, China. Evidence of virus infection was also detected in other animals (including a raccoon dog, Nyctereutes procyonoides) and in humans working at the same market.
I probably should've said that the civet was confirmed to be an intermediate species years later (2007) after more extensive analysis. Maybe this discovery owed to a little luck because the index cases were a lot more obvious and a lot less numerous. The proto SARS2.0 might've only had a transient existence in whatever mammal it bridged into humans from and might be extinct. Of course, there might be more data that we don't know about. One big problem is that the place where there needs to be more sampling is the same place that has the least interest in doing that sampling.
 
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Looking at these numbers and it is really hard to imagine that more than 60% of US adults get the vaccine. All the metrics are starting to improve and I think the majority of the leaners in gray ultimately opt out as a result. I think Gottlieb is right that fewer people will get the vaccine than most people hoped.

View: https://twitter.com/APNORC/status/1359502384775405568
In other words, the US will never get to herd immunity, because it appears that having covid does not lead to much if any lasting immunity. Thus the rest of the world make get back to normal, but the US won't. However, I expect as companies make getting the vaccine a requirement to be hired, more will end up getting it. I expect some will make it a requirement of keeping employment.
 
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US News did a dishonest story about flu where they cherry picked the worst flu year and called those numbers "typical". But, they stated that only 925 cases had been reported this year (closer to 1,500 if you count all labs) which is a massive reduction in cases. Obviously social distancing/masks is a (big) part of that, and people not wanting to get a negative test/quarantine also contributes, but 25-30,000 less cases is shocking. Also of course, these number take time (a year) to be reported, and make their way to the data base, plus the flu season still has two months left so the numbers will grow some, but still.
 
US News did a dishonest story about flu where they cherry picked the worst flu year and called those numbers "typical". But, they stated that only 925 cases had been reported this year (closer to 1,500 if you count all labs) which is a massive reduction in cases. Obviously social distancing/masks is a (big) part of that, and people not wanting to get a negative test/quarantine also contributes, but 25-30,000 less cases is shocking. Also of course, these number take time (a year) to be reported, and make their way to the data base, plus the flu season still has two months left so the numbers will grow some, but still.
The flu is also pretty much a non-factor in Europe this season, I guess social distancing, masks and all the other anti-covid measures are the reason.
 
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The flu stats makes me think what Covid would do in normal winter when we almost wiped out flu with this measures but Covid is still strong despite of it. That makes me think that back to normal will be difficult even with vaccines unfortunetely. I think we will get some vaccine for Covid every year. But what about drop in worldwide cases? It is because of lockdowns across the world? We had lockdowns throught the globe and we havent seen such drop. We have sharp decline in 7 day average for mont. It is because of Europe dropping? My delusional mind telling me it is because Covid is leaving :D
 
The flu stats makes me think what Covid would do in normal winter when we almost wiped out flu with this measures but Covid is still strong despite of it. That makes me think that back to normal will be difficult even with vaccines unfortunetely. I think we will get some vaccine for Covid every year. But what about drop in worldwide cases? It is because of lockdowns across the world? We had lockdowns throught the globe and we havent seen such drop. We have sharp decline in 7 day average for mont. It is because of Europe dropping? My delusional mind telling me it is because Covid is leaving :D
Put it in this perspective: our bodies have been developing immunity to influenza for hundreds of years, and we've been using vaccines to help our immune system for close to 100 years. Toss in that C19 is more virulent, and it is going to be a while before C19 is 'flu like' in our world (I'll likely be dead).
 
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Put it in this perspective: our bodies have been developing immunity to influenza for hundreds of years, and we've been using vaccines to help our immune system for close to 100 years. Toss in that C19 is more virulent, and it is going to be a while before C19 is 'flu like' in our world (I'll likely be dead).
Speaking of Vaccines, NC is opening up the ability to get vaccinated to everyone in group 3. Apparently teachers can start trying to get vaccinated starting about 2 before the rest of group 3. My husband is definitely part of that group. Me, who knows. I'm a vendor, I have paperwork saying I'm an essential employee and worked through the shutdown, but not idea if I'll actually be able to get vaccinated as part of group 3 or not. The more interesting part is, there are still people in groups 1 and 2 that want the vaccine that still haven't been able to get appointments for it.
 
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This is interesting:
In the updated guidance, the CDC said such quarantining is not necessary for fully vaccinated people within three months of having received their last doses as long as they do not develop any symptoms. "Fully vaccinated" means that at least two weeks have passed since a person has received the second dose of a two-dose vaccine or one dose of a single-dose vaccine.

 
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There is no flu here in Belgium, and we have always kept our schools open this autumn/winter. The thing is that the R value for flu is approximately half of covid's value - thus, measures that push the R for covid near or below 1 will definitely push the R for flu below 1.
 
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Speaking of Vaccines, NC is opening up the ability to get vaccinated to everyone in group 3. Apparently teachers can start trying to get vaccinated starting about 2 before the rest of group 3. My husband is definitely part of that group. Me, who knows. I'm a vendor, I have paperwork saying I'm an essential employee and worked through the shutdown, but not idea if I'll actually be able to get vaccinated as part of group 3 or not. The more interesting part is, there are still people in groups 1 and 2 that want the vaccine that still haven't been able to get appointments for it.
Teachers are getting vaccinated in Idaho too. Obviously the main reason is to make teachers feel safer in the school, but what about their families? A vaccinated teacher might still bring C19 home to unvaccinated family members. A guy who I see on the trail almost daily got his vaccine very early on because his wife is an RN in the COVID wing.
 
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A colleague who just read something about the very low levels of flu this season sent me an email to ask why mask are so effective at reducing flu, but not C19. I offered many of the things that we discuss on here. He also typed "it makes you wonder if masks are doing anything at all against C19". I proposed that if we are going to play 'what if', 3 million in the USA could be dead if we hadn't worn masks and practiced physical distancing. He agreed that playing what if isn't useful.
 
Teachers are getting vaccinated in Idaho too. Obviously the main reason is to make teachers feel safer in the school, but what about their families? A vaccinated teacher might still bring C19 home to unvaccinated family members. A guy who I see on the trail almost daily got his vaccine very early on because his wife is an RN in the COVID wing.
What about hospital workers who still aren't eligible to get vaccinated simply because they don't have contact with patients even they work in the hospitals. In NC they are part of group 3. I'm still having a hard time understanding how the non front line hospital workers (specifically those who are working full time in hospitals, the ones who fix the equipment) weren't part of group 2.
 
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