Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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To be very clear, I hope that natural immunity proves to be very robust because if it is and we add people who get vaccinated + people with natural immunity we get more people who will hopefully not get sick and/or die, plus they will be less likely to spread it (the more dead ends, the better). BUT, the data isn't there yet. Maybe Crotty et. al. are getting there?
 
I took the vax Pfizer. Not leaning no vax at all. Only pointing out that there is other info out there.
There is a lot of info. out there, but not all info. is equal. I feel like you were saying: 'This preliminary evidence with very little data support (so far) is as important as a evidence with mountains of data support.'

Prior to reading the Crotty threads, I read a thread about some ER docs who had previously been infected seeing if they would get infected again (not in dangerous/reckless ways). None of the six did get infected again. That's encouraging because that gives some indication of natural immunity, but a sample size of six isn't enough to make the news. Can you imagine pharma putting out a vaccine after it worked on only six people (all men in their 30s)?

There is a data collection study looking at how many medical professionals who had SARS-CoV-2, and did not get vaccinated have not been infected again/have been infected again. When they first started (fall 2020?), their sample size was massive, but it has been greatly reduced by the subjects getting vaccinated.
 
We are now close to zero or at zero in most places in Germany, but with the summer holidays coming up and all those football matches in Europe and everything I doubt it's going to stay that way.
Anyway, as long as vaccinations help against the most aggressive variants, it should be okay. Something like herd immunity should be reached by the end of September (80% are expected for end of August).
The big fear is a way more aggressive variant, but some new virus might come along just as well, no use dwelling on that for us non-professionals, I think.
 
First Moderna jab done and dusted! After typing a bit too much back at home I have the very mild sore arm, just feels like I've worked out the muscle (like after a long walk when you're legs aren't used to it). No biggie. Next jab is in just over a month (the soonest they had open spots) - 2 days after the men's Olympic RR, not sure if I'll get there or not but at least it's an option! ;)

There's a rumor that Japan is running short on vaccine supplies ( they secured enough supplies for the whole country, but maybe some of that is still on the way!). Having opened it up to all ages recently, there's many people wanting their jab now but have to wait till 2nd week or so of July or later.... so perhaps it's not just the gvt being their usual glacial slow selves, maybe there's actually a supply issue so the vaccine venues are just making sure they have enough for 2 doses for everyone who's currently booked/booking. I got mine done at a mass vax centre set up by the Self Defense Forces (SDF) - really impressively run (if only the powers that be could get that organized!!!). The people in the first age group are now coming back for their 2nd jab so there are less spots available for first time jabbees. In general people are getting vaxxed in local clinics, etc - and starting in that 2nd or so week of July many companies will be jabbing their employees and their families (I think the company jabs get Moderna, local docs and clinics have Pfizer). I think maybe a few of the large companies have already started this. And local areas are setting up some larger jab centres to do more than clinics can do in a day (though not on the 10,000 a day scale like the SDF ones in Tokyo and Osaka).

Someone I know got his done at the SDF centre without a booking - he thinks at the end each day they check the number of no-shows and then allow that number of people early next morning to get a jab without booking - great way not to waste it. The guy I know showed up at 3.30am! He said there were already about 50 people there, more people arrived and they were counting people with those clicking counters and by around 5am they wouldn't let anyone else join the queue. They got let inside at 7.30am. That's a bit early for me, I'm glad I had a booking!!!

Today Tokyo had just over 600 new infections starting to go up again after a bit of a drop recently - though I'm guessing the real numbers are probably more than that. They just ended the state of emergency in most prefectures, night life still has to close by 8pm but now they're allowed to serve alcohol again (till 7pm). Numbers could easily rise in a few weeks with this. We shall see. Lots of saving face will be going on till the Olympics are over. It was announced a few days ago that alcohol would be served in Olympic venues but after a huge public outcry that announcement was backtracked.
 
We are now close to zero or at zero in most places in Germany, but with the summer holidays coming up and all those football matches in Europe and everything I doubt it's going to stay that way.
Anyway, as long as vaccinations help against the most aggressive variants, it should be okay. Something like herd immunity should be reached by the end of September (80% are expected for end of August).
The big fear is a way more aggressive variant, but some new virus might come along just as well, no use dwelling on that for us non-professionals, I think.
What ages are still prevented from getting the vaccinations there? That is going to be a sticking point for every country moving forward. Herd immunity only works if the whole population is vaccinated uniformly. As we are seeing in Israel, grouping the non-vaccinated together in schools with delta around will cause outbreaks. That is the same reason we see the occasional measles outbreak in places like SoCal. But if you all can get to 80%, you will be better off than most to deal with COVID next fall. The best way to deal with delta is to keep vaccinating as fast as you can.
 
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What ages are still prevented from getting the vaccinations there? That is going to be a sticking point for every country moving forward. Herd immunity only works if the whole population is vaccinated uniformly. As we are seeing in Israel, grouping the non-vaccinated together in schools with delta around will cause outbreaks. That is the same reason we see the occasional measles outbreak in places like SoCal. But if you all can get to 80%, you will be better off than most to deal with COVID next fall. The best way to deal with delta is to keep vaccinating as fast as you can.
That's where the rather low children's rate in Germany comes into play as a positive factor :p
Vaccinations 12+ are now allowed, though not especially recommended. Recommended for 12-16 with pre-existing conditions.

I suppose real herd immunity will not be reached, that's why I wrote "something like it" ;).
But if all adults are vaccinated (and from what I read there may be like 4-5% who don't want to), there should only be bigger outbreaks among children, which is okay for me, because they are not at risk - at least the risk is lower than for all the other things that can happen to children. I read an interview with the head of the vaccination committee and obviously the risk for hospitalization is very, very low even for children with heavy pre-existing conditions.
They will probably allow U12 vaccinations in a few months, but they probably won't recommend it.
So this was my rough calculation: about 12% under 18s in Germany, some of those, but a minority, will be vaccinated, so maybe about 10% left, 5% adults really don't want to get vaccinated, most of the others want to get vaccinated as soon as possible, so I think about 85% will be vaccinated by September.
 
Someone I know got his done at the SDF centre without a booking - he thinks at the end each day they check the number of no-shows and then allow that number of people early next morning to get a jab without booking - great way not to waste it. The guy I know showed up at 3.30am! He said there were already about 50 people there, more people arrived and they were counting people with those clicking counters and by around 5am they wouldn't let anyone else join the queue. They got let inside at 7.30am. That's a bit early for me, I'm glad I had a booking!!!
Why not have a system to let people have the vaccine of 'no shows'? We have that here. You subscribe to be on this list (QVax), and when there are no shows, you get a text and email, and if you can get to the vaccine centre within 3 hours, you can accept. No need to wait in a line or 'hope' for a vaccine.
 
I agree with you - hopefully this will happen for this mass vax centre - it's only been in the last week that the place has been booked out, and this is because they only opened up the age groups of below 65s about 7-10 days ago. I think it's only been booked out since last weekend. (when I booked at the end of last week there were still plenty of spots available for the latter half of this week so I grabbed the soonest available date. Seems it was only a few days later that everything was booked out!)
Before it got booked out I'd read in the press that unused doses were going to other SDF members and various people it would be useful for.
A few weeks ago Japan hadn't even finished vaccinating medical people (and I'm not sure yet if they have by now even!) so there's plenty of people those doses are good for. I think they originally opened up the mass vax site to try and speed up the over 65s because everything was going at such a glacial pace.

For other vaccination places like clinics, etc, there's a website where you can get on a waitlist and if they have a cancellation they phone the people on the list and the first one that's available gets the booking. However the number of contributing clinics/hospitals on there is smaller than the number of places you can actually get a jab at. Hopefully the number of places on that list will increase.
 
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Guys, I have cramps in my stomach and nausea this morning. Could it be from vaccine? It is almost 48 hours after it and I felt ok till last night. It is probably not but I consider every option.

Edit: Who knows but it is almost gone.
 
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After not checking the numbers for a while, I'm a bit shocked by how much the vaccine rollout has stalled in the US (and how early -- I could understand it after ~75 % were done). Despite almost not using AZ and J&J, Denmark (and we're not much different from the EU in general) has now caught up with the US when it comes to the first jab, while still trailing when it comes to the number of fully vaccinated people. It helps ofc that 90-95 % of people offered the vaccine has taken it here, and I expect it to stay that high for the whole population or at least close to (so over 85 %).

It really is bizarre to have so many doses stored and unused over there.
 
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After not checking the numbers for a while, I'm a bit shocked by how much the vaccine rollout has stalled in the US (and how early -- I could understand it after ~75 % were done). Despite almost not using AZ and J&J, Denmark (and we're not much different from the EU in general) has now caught up with the US when it comes to the first jab, while still trailing when it comes to the number of fully vaccinated people. It helps ofc that 90-95 % of people offered the vaccine has taken it here, and I expect it to stay that high for the whole population or at least close to (so over 85 %).

It really is bizarre to have so many doses stored and unused over there.
My work is just above 80% now. And that is a cohort of people with health related degrees in a state where healthcare is the lifeblood of the economy and with vaccination as an absolute requirement for employment starting this fall. The shots were also given on campus and we have a daily lottery for vaxxed people. I walked by the baseball stadium on Tuesday where they were having a walkup mobile vaccination booth and they asked me to be vaccinated. People who aren't vaccinated here are literally not trying at all. The question was always going to be how big a group that was within the population. Before vaccination started, I thought it would be tough to achieve 60% in the USA. Some states are stalling around 30-35%. It is truly depressing.
 
The problem in the US is a lot of people just flat out don't care. I live in a county that is around 20% vaccinated. It's unlikely to get much better here until the military requires the vaccine. Anyone who wants a vaccine here can easily get it. Unfortunately too many are just refusing to get it and then get mad that places are going to require it at some point in the future. The state I live in is around 40% fully vaccinated with the major cities being at or over 50%.
 
“We are not going to make any recommendations as to what you should do,” Weinstein said, shortly before downing the drug. “And we are not going to say anything conclusive about what the data say, because the data are not themselves conclusive. However, it doesn’t mean the data don’t imply things.”
LOL. That is seriously their pitch to take the horse de-worming drug to prevent COVID. Sad to see Taibbi go down this rabbit hole, but expect to hear more about Ivermectin over the next few months as reason not to get vaccinated from the people who need to take a brain de-wormer IMO.

View: https://twitter.com/annamerlan/status/1408081863319511043
 
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