Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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Apparently Melbourne was the most lockdown city in the world? Frankly I find that a little embarrassing. They had some problems there last year but nothing compared to Europe or the US. Anyway, as movingtarget said hopefully the worst of it is over :weary:
Looking at the latest case numbers coming out of Melbourne they are going to go through what Sydney went through with Delta. Yesterday was the highest amount of new infections for a 24 hour period in Australia for Covid so they are at least two months off seeing the end of this outbreak if the Sydney lockdown was anything to go by.
 
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I wouldn't worry about the American cohort in this thread who have effectively hijacked discussion with their non-sensical posts in the last two or three months - In saying that, there is an anti-vax movement in Austalia like most countries in the world, which has manifested itself in protests from time to time, especially in Melbourne - Which is no surprise when Melbournian's have been locked down for close to ten months since March 2020 - Finally it's disappointing that the Aussie 'Summer of Cycling' has been cancelled because of unreasonable demands from Government/s, especially seeing Australia would have reached their vaccination targets.
For clarification: Those who are here regularly discussing/debating/sharing/arguing are the pilots, while those who pop in infrequently with snarky comments are the hijackers.
 
For clarification: Those who are here regularly discussing/debating/sharing/arguing are the pilots, while those who pop in infrequently with snarky comments are the hijackers.
A typically tone-deaf post from you which supports my assertion - I've posted many times in this thread with relevant information which I hope has added to the discussion - I've posted less frequently in recent times because, I don't feel , I can value add to the discussion, and I certainly, don't have a million anecdotes to share, which add little value to the discussion..
 
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isn't that the case at all in the US? Over here in Germany (and I guess in most other European states as well?!), recovered poeple are treated equaly as vaccinated (currently for half a year after infection)
Sadly, that's not the case here in the US. Is that part of the European Immunity Passport system that includes recovery from prior infection that most EU countries follow? But Fauci seems to be oblivious to the science that the EU follows. However, I'm not buying it - Fauci is too shrewd for that & I think there's an ulterior motive in play here. He seems obsessed with vaccinating every man, woman & child in the US. He's ignoring the power of natural immunity and only wants dependency on vaccine-induced immunity.

And the HHS can't even get their story straight on this. Here HHS Sec Becerra is grilled by Sen Paul on vaccine mandates during a Senate Health Committee hearing. Becerra was known to have compared people who recoverd from Covid and opted for natural immunity over taking the vaccine as "Flat-Earthers."

View: https://youtu.be/ml1W0k0yaJk


Becerra also contradicts himself by initially stating that he's not familiar with the Israeli study on natural immunity but later states "Our team has reviewed every study out there on Covid whether it's from Israel, from the US, or wherever." Lol.

The college where my son attends mandated the vaccine with a weekly testing opt out (my son & I had overlapping Delta cases last month & both us tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 spiked protein antibodies). He's not thrilled with this mandate because he feels he's being discriminated against for having natural immunity - as good as vaccine-induced immunity - but yet the vaccinated don't have to submit to testing. I think it's only fair that if natural immunity isn't going to be recognized and forced to test then the same should hold true for the vaccinated. At the gym where I work out at, I know of 3 breakthrough cases with the vaccinated over the past month. All three were showing Covid symptoms and continued to work out like it was no big deal because they're "vaccinated." One eventually got tested & was positive for Covid.
 
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Sadly, that's not the case here in the US. Is that part of the European Immunity Passport system that includes recovery from prior infection that most EU countries follow? But Fauci seems to be oblivious to the science that the EU follows. However, I'm not buying it - Fauci is too shrewd for that & I think there's an ulterior motive in play here. He seems obsessed with vaccinating every man, woman & child in the US. He's ignoring the power of natural immunity and only wants dependency on vaccine-induced immunity.

And the HHS can't even get their story straight on this. Here HHS Sec Becerra is grilled by Sen Paul on vaccine mandates during a Senate Health Committee hearing. Becerra was known to have compared people who recoverd from Covid and opted for natural immunity over taking the vaccine as "Flat-Earthers."

View: https://youtu.be/ml1W0k0yaJk


Becerra also contradicts himself by initially stating that he's not familiar with the Israeli study on natural immunity but later states "Our team has reviewed every study out there on Covid whether it's from Israel, from the US, or wherever." Lol.

The college where my son attends mandated the vaccine with a weekly testing opt out (my son & I had overlapping Delta cases last month & both us tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 spiked protein antibodies). He's not thrilled with this mandate because he feels he's being discriminated against for having natural immunity - as good as vaccine-induced immunity - but yet the vaccinated don't have to submit to testing. I think it's only fair that if natural immunity isn't going to be recognized and forced to test then the same should hold true for the vaccinated. At the gym where I work out at, I know of 3 breakthrough cases with the vaccinated over the past month. All three were showing Covid symptoms and continued to work out like it was no big deal because they're "vaccinated." One eventually got tested & was positive for Covid.
Even before SC2, it drove me nuts that people would be coughing away/blowing their nose non stop at the Y. Come on, don't expose all of us to your crud, have some respect, stay home for a few days or do an outdoor workout.

I think that with the research that its already taking place, a disease acquired immunity 'stamp' will happen in the USA.

EDIT: colleges might be hesitant to do anything until something comes from the CDC.
 
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A typically tone-deaf post from you which supports my assertion - I've posted many times in this thread with relevant information which I hope has added to the discussion - I've posted less frequently in recent times because, I don't feel , I can value add to the discussion, and I certainly, don't have a million anecdotes to share, which add little value to the discussion..
That's fine, but don't criticize those who do. There has been hard data shared here, but most of the rest is opinion, anecdote...the 'human interest, on the ground' part of the pandemic.

Really its tone deaf of you not to recognize that all of the regulars in this thread, USA or other, don't just share data.
 
Sadly, that's not the case here in the US. Is that part of the European Immunity Passport system that includes recovery from prior infection that most EU countries follow? But Fauci seems to be oblivious to the science that the EU follows. However, I'm not buying it - Fauci is too shrewd for that & I think there's an ulterior motive in play here. He seems obsessed with vaccinating every man, woman & child in the US. He's ignoring the power of natural immunity and only wants dependency on vaccine-induced immunity.

And the HHS can't even get their story straight on this. Here HHS Sec Becerra is grilled by Sen Paul on vaccine mandates during a Senate Health Committee hearing. Becerra was known to have compared people who recoverd from Covid and opted for natural immunity over taking the vaccine as "Flat-Earthers."

View: https://youtu.be/ml1W0k0yaJk


Becerra also contradicts himself by initially stating that he's not familiar with the Israeli study on natural immunity but later states "Our team has reviewed every study out there on Covid whether it's from Israel, from the US, or wherever." Lol.

The college where my son attends mandated the vaccine with a weekly testing opt out (my son & I had overlapping Delta cases last month & both us tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 spiked protein antibodies). He's not thrilled with this mandate because he feels he's being discriminated against for having natural immunity - as good as vaccine-induced immunity - but yet the vaccinated don't have to submit to testing. I think it's only fair that if natural immunity isn't going to be recognized and forced to test then the same should hold true for the vaccinated. At the gym where I work out at, I know of 3 breakthrough cases with the vaccinated over the past month. All three were showing Covid symptoms and continued to work out like it was no big deal because they're "vaccinated." One eventually got tested & was positive for Covid.
Would it seem reasonable to have an anti-body test result that would also compare to the C19 vax cards for for employers, travel, etc?. Your note about breakthrough infections is and will be a concern and also underlies that some measures will be needed if infections are regionally increasing. We all should consider that either prior infection "immunity" and vaccination for the current version are not the last caution that we'll need to observe.
 
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I wouldn't worry about the American cohort in this thread who have effectively hijacked discussion with their non-sensical posts in the last two or three months - In saying that, there is an anti-vax movement in Austalia like most countries in the world, which has manifested itself in protests from time to time, especially in Melbourne - Which is no surprise when Melbournian's have been locked down for close to ten months since March 2020 - Finally it's disappointing that the Aussie 'Summer of Cycling' has been cancelled because of unreasonable demands from Government/s, especially seeing Australia would have reached their vaccination targets.
The friend I mentioned that was referring to Australia's social moods was clearly not informed. Most Americans aren't and I confess the few Aussie friends I communicate with aren't happy with government or citizen response. The Aussies living here prefer to stay until things stabilize, I guess. That American media figures have created drama for their own use is anomalous. Few in the same sphere commented much on how Brazil handled their situation; but your country's circumstances were exploitable for an audience, somehow. Why my friend believes this and other deeper conspiracies is disturbing in that he may act on his growing need for a Civil War. Covid 19 is wrapped into it as a visible issue but it's so many other strange things in addition.
 
I know that some (not just on here) think that Fauci is "too focused on vaccine", but health people world wide are pretty close on this. I can't tell by the way that the article words it though: do you have to be vaccinated to get the green pass? One sentence says something like: "double vaccinated, and show a negative test after infection." Is that for vaccinated people who get SC2 or is that anyone who gets infected?
 
I've only read Goel once (?) before, but he was retweeted by Dr. Crotty who I read frequently now so... Interesting thread:

"Here is the kicker - we found #mRNA vax generates memory B cells that are better at cross-binding variants than infection at 6 months Memory from infection evolves more over time compared to vax but doesn't seem to generate as good of an endpoint response vs. Beta (B.1.351)"

View: https://twitter.com/rishirajgoel/status/1448711946010710023

View: https://twitter.com/rishirajgoel/status/1448712029838069764
 
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I know that some (not just on here) think that Fauci is "too focused on vaccine", but health people world wide are pretty close on this. I can't tell by the way that the article words it though: do you have to be vaccinated to get the green pass? One sentence says something like: "double vaccinated, and show a negative test after infection." Is that for vaccinated people who get SC2 or is that anyone who gets infected?
I think its either/or but it could have been worded better.
 
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Something that popped into my head while riding yesterday about the thread I posted from Goel: if antibodies decrease, but memory cells are stable is an antibody test our best tool?
I think so. The Covid test is unreliable & means nothing - short of a joke, IMO. I was never tested when I was sick but as soon as I recovered, I had the IGG antibody test (Sept 21) which read: "Your test was reactive and did detect IgG antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein associated with COVID-19." Interestingly, the lab report further states that this indicates you were either vaccinated against Covid-19 or were exposed to Covid-19. I thought the test might be able to differentiate between naturally-acquired antibodies & vaccine-induced antibodies? My son had the same results for his antibody test.

Here's why this Covid test is really screwed up. I have a lady friend, a 48 yr old competitive runner/triathlete who lives in my neighborhood & works out at the gym I'm at, who had what appeared to be Covid back in mid-August (she's unvaccinated). She had all the classic symptoms and had to shut down her training for awhile. She recovered in a couple weeks and like me, needed no medical intervention whatsoever. During that time she tested negative for Covid twice! (both tests a couple days apart). This left her dumbfounded & she wasn't sure what to think. Anyway, after I had my antibody test I suggested she get one. She did about 2 weeks ago through her health care provider & her results were also "reactive for the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies."

She works for municipal government and her employer is requiring vaccination or weekly testing as an opt out. She's declined vaccination & has to submit to the testing. Her tests, which started a few weeks ago, have all been negative. However, a few days ago she had a "rapid test" from an urgent care center which came up positive! She was in a frantic & very confused as to how this could happen if she has naturally-acquired antibodies. The nurse at the clinic told her it's common for people who have recently recoverd from Covid & have naturally-acquired antibodies to test positive. WTH? Lol. She was so upset at this positive test - up all night with anxiety & frustration. The next day she had a regular test through her employer where she just got the results today which are negative. She's relieved that she doesn't have to go through Covid protocols.

This is why it's so ridiculous for those who have recovered from Covid & have naturally-acquired immunity to be declined the same rights & privileges that the vaccinated have. It's intellectual dishonesty & discrimination. She's ticked that she has to submit to twice-weekly testing through her employer when the vaccinated don't & are given a free pass just because they're vaccinated. And the vaccinated can test positive (go see the NFL thread where 4 Arizona Cardinal coaches & players just tested positive when all are fully vaccinated! Lol). She's tried to make her case with her employer that just falls on deaf ears. Much akin to me contacting my district Congressman about this who has yet to get back with me (probably isn't going to care anyway given his party affiliation. Lol).
 
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I think so. The Covid test is unreliable & means nothing - short of joke, IMO. I was never tested when I was sick but as soon as I recovered, I had the IGG antibody test (Sept 21) which read: "Your test was reactive for the IgG antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein associated with COVID-19." Interestingly, the lab report further states that this indicates you were either vaccinated against Covid-19 or were exposed to Covid-19. I thought the test might be able to differentiate between naturally-acquired antibodies & vaccine-induced antibodies? My son had the same results for his antibody test.

Here's why this Covid test is really screwed up. I have a lady friend, a 48 yr old competitive runner/triathlete who lives in my neighborhood & works out at the gym I'm at, who had what appeared to be Covid back in mid-August (she's unvaccinated). She had all the classic symptoms and had to shut down her training for awhile. She recovered in a couple weeks and like me, needed no medical intervention whatsoever. During that time she tested negative for Covid twice! (both tests a couple days apart). This left her dumbfounded & she wasn't sure what to think. Anyway, after I had my antibody test I suggested she get one. She did about 2 weeks ago through her health care provider & her results were also "reactive for the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies."

She works for municipal government and her employer is requiring vaccination or weekly testing as an opt out. She's declined vaccination & has to submit to the testing. Her tests, which started a few weeks ago, have all been negative. However, a few days ago she had a "rapid test" from an urgent care center which came up positive! She was in a frantic & confused. She said the nurse told her it's common for people who have recently recoverd from Covid & have naturally-acquired antibodies to test positive. WTH? Lol. She was so upset at this positive test - up all night with anxiety & frustration. The next day she had a regular test through her employer where she just got the results today which are negative. She's relieved that she doesn't have to go through Covid protocols.

This is why it's so ridiculous for those who have recovered from Covid & have naturally-acquired immunity to be declined the same rights & privileges that the vaccinated have. It's intellectual dishonesty & discrimination. She's ticked that she has to submit to twice-weekly testing through her employer when the vaccinated don't & are given a free pass just because they're vaccinated. And the vaccinated can test positive (go see the NFL thread where 4 Arizona Cardinal coaches & players just tested positive when all are fully vaccinated! Lol). She's tried to make her case with her employer that just falls on deaf ears. Much akin to me contacting my district Congressman about this who has yet to get back with me (probably isn't going to care anyway given his party affiliation. Lol).
What I was thinking: Covid +/- test, antibody level, memory cell level. Should we be using memory cell level when determining 'protection' level?

Antibodies/memory cells aren't different in vaccinated vs. infection. When you get infected by a pathogen your body builds antibodies then memory cells to the antigen just like when you get vaccinated. I know the argument goes that the 'vaccine is just the spike protein while with an infection your body defends against the entire virus'. Without getting into a molecular discussion that I'm not qualified to get into, your body doesn't develop antibodies to the entire virus, just the antigen (spike protein in this case).

EDIT: I sent a twit to Goel about this and :
"Unfortunately measuring memory is hard and not routinely done in clinical labs right now (there are some T cell tests that are out there though). Measuring memory gives a better picture of overall vaccine response, but probably cannot be used to measure "protection"
 
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I think so. The Covid test is unreliable & means nothing - short of a joke, IMO. I was never tested when I was sick but as soon as I recovered, I had the IGG antibody test (Sept 21) which read: "Your test was reactive and did detect IgG antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein associated with COVID-19." Interestingly, the lab report further states that this indicates you were either vaccinated against Covid-19 or were exposed to Covid-19. I thought the test might be able to differentiate between naturally-acquired antibodies & vaccine-induced antibodies? My son had the same results for his antibody test.

Here's why this Covid test is really screwed up. I have a lady friend, a 48 yr old competitive runner/triathlete who lives in my neighborhood & works out at the gym I'm at, who had what appeared to be Covid back in mid-August (she's unvaccinated). She had all the classic symptoms and had to shut down her training for awhile. She recovered in a couple weeks and like me, needed no medical intervention whatsoever. During that time she tested negative for Covid twice! (both tests a couple days apart). This left her dumbfounded & she wasn't sure what to think. Anyway, after I had my antibody test I suggested she get one. She did about 2 weeks ago through her health care provider & her results were also "reactive for the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein antibodies."

She works for municipal government and her employer is requiring vaccination or weekly testing as an opt out. She's declined vaccination & has to submit to the testing. Her tests, which started a few weeks ago, have all been negative. However, a few days ago she had a "rapid test" from an urgent care center which came up positive! She was in a frantic & very confused as to how this could happen if she has naturally-acquired antibodies. The nurse at the clinic told her it's common for people who have recently recoverd from Covid & have naturally-acquired antibodies to test positive. WTH? Lol. She was so upset at this positive test - up all night with anxiety & frustration. The next day she had a regular test through her employer where she just got the results today which are negative. She's relieved that she doesn't have to go through Covid protocols.

This is why it's so ridiculous for those who have recovered from Covid & have naturally-acquired immunity to be declined the same rights & privileges that the vaccinated have. It's intellectual dishonesty & discrimination. She's ticked that she has to submit to twice-weekly testing through her employer when the vaccinated don't & are given a free pass just because they're vaccinated. And the vaccinated can test positive (go see the NFL thread where 4 Arizona Cardinal coaches & players just tested positive when all are fully vaccinated! Lol). She's tried to make her case with her employer that just falls on deaf ears. Much akin to me contacting my district Congressman about this who has yet to get back with me (probably isn't going to care anyway given his party affiliation. Lol).
Data from India showed that a lot of the cases in their big wave were reinfections. If we are going to use the football example, look at Lamar.

One way to tell whether antibodies were from vaccine or infection is to look for N antibodies. Since the vaccines only deliver S proteins, only an infected person will have antibodies to both N and S. Jmdirt has the right concept below. I don't know if that assay is commercially available.
What I was thinking: Covid +/- test, antibody level, memory cell level. Should we be using memory cell level when determining 'protection' level?

Antibodies/memory cells aren't different in vaccinated vs. infection. When you get infected by a pathogen your body builds antibodies then memory cells to the antigen just like when you get vaccinated. I know the argument goes that the 'vaccine is just the spike protein while with an infection your body defends against the entire virus'. Without getting into a molecular discussion that I'm not qualified to get into, your body doesn't develop antibodies to the entire virus, just the antigen (spike protein in this case).
Ideally, that would be better. But......if you need to bring a flow cytometer into the analysis, that can't be done at scale with present technology. And that is the only way you can do the memory T and B cell analysis.
 
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Good question. However, do they have anything to test memory cells?
Here is the answer from Goel:
"Unfortunately measuring memory is hard and not routinely done in clinical labs right now (there are some T cell tests that are out there though). Measuring memory gives a better picture of overall vaccine response, but probably cannot be used to measure "protection"
 
Reactions: Koronin

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