Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Unchained]

New omicron variant stokes world fears, triggers travel bans

The discovery of a new coronavirus variant sent a chill through much of the world Friday as nations raced to halt air travel, markets fell sharply and scientists held ...

www.mail.com

 

[Koronin]

I have heard the same trope frequently about transmission making viruses less deadly, but it is not something that is universally true. Often it might appear that a virus is weakening. For instance, we have seen fatalities falling in places like the UK. But the 'weakening ' is actually populations gaining immunity. Novelty is what make viruses dangerous. Spanish flu would not kill 100m people if it were released in 2021 because everybody has some pre existing immunity to its viral descendants. In 1917-8, it was novel, so it was very deadly. Viruses and their host species usually find a dynamic equilibrium where you don't see much change over time, but that requires time and SC2 is still adapting.

We are going to see a lot of stories over the next month about how immune evasive omicron is. It will take longer to see how serious it is compared to delta.

Unrelated to Omicron, here is a paper that shows why the vaccinated are probably much less contagious.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1463363625356181506

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfPCDoherty/status/1463363625356181506

Are they seriously calling this one Omicron? I swear I (and likely many other 80's Transformers fans) are going to see Unicron every time we see the name of his variant.

 

[jmdirt]

Are they seriously calling this one Omicron? I swear I (and likely many other 80's Transformers fans) are going to see Unicron every time we see the name of his variant.

Its from the Greek alphabet, but I'm not sure why they aren't following more of an order...

 

[Cookster15]

I have heard the same trope frequently about transmission making viruses less deadly, but it is not something that is universally true. Often it might appear that a virus is weakening. For instance, we have seen fatalities falling in places like the UK. But the 'weakening ' is actually populations gaining immunity. Novelty is what make viruses dangerous. Spanish flu would not kill 100m people if it were released in 2021 because everybody has some pre existing immunity to its viral descendants. In 1917-8, it was novel, so it was very deadly. Viruses and their host species usually find a dynamic equilibrium where you don't see much change over time, but that requires time and SC2 is still adapting.

We are going to see a lot of stories over the next month about how immune evasive omicron is. It will take longer to see how serious it is compared to delta.

Unrelated to Omicron, here is a paper that shows why the vaccinated are probably much less contagious.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1463363625356181506

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfPCDoherty/status/1463363625356181506

Perhaps not 'universally' true but is it true more often than not? Greater than 50% of scenarios?

Scale and perspective is important. This is where the media habitually fails the world in its reporting of the pandemic.

How many people would test positive to antibodies for influenza or the common cold if we actually tested for it? Why does it matter if you don't experience symptoms?

What really matters about Omicron is its virulence. If Omicron is even less virulent than delta then I think we need to calm down. Delta seems far less virulent than the original variant that killed so many around the world.

Plus we don't know everything about Omicron yet so you cannot speculate that existing vaccines won't also reduce contagion of this variant along with reduce the level of sickness and death in those who are infected.

I put one and one together and come up with the conclusion that is more likely than not the media is again sensationalizing Omicron rather than informing the public of all the facts to help us get a good perspective on the true risks of the newly discovered variant. The WHO is also embarrassed how it handled the original outbreak.

 

[Tricycle Rider]

Its from the Greek alphabet, but I'm not sure why they aren't following more of an order...

Medical stuff usually goes Latin, just so we can understand each other on a universal level.

 

[Ultrairon]

Yeah, countries are stopping travelling again and experts are saying it's really concerning, but of course it's just people on a forum panicking...
However, if it should turn out to not be problematic or even helpful in pushing Delta aside, good for all of us.

There really is no need to panic. This is beyond our control. The best thing to do in my opinion is get the vax if you want and move on with life. With respect to the USA I was told it was racist to travel ban to Asia or Africa.

 

[BlueRoads]

Its from the Greek alphabet, but I'm not sure why they aren't following more of an order...

I think they are following an order, it's just that the other named variants since delta weren't interesting enough to make much headlines?

 

[BlueRoads]

There really is no need to panic. This is beyond our control. The best thing to do in my opinion is get the vax if you want and move on with life. With respect to the USA I was told it was racist to travel ban to Asia or Africa.

It's not that much about me, it's more that I really want to get out of this on and off lockdown and the political concentration on this problem. And if it's worse than Delta than I don't see that.

 

[Ultrairon]

Perhaps not 'universally' true but is it true more often than not? Greater than 50% of scenarios?

Scale and perspective is important. This is where the media habitually fails the world in its reporting of the pandemic.

How many people would test positive to antibodies for influenza or the common cold if we actually tested for it? Why does it matter if you don't experience symptoms?

What really matters about Omicron is its virulence. If Omicron is even less virulent than delta then I think we need to calm down. Delta seems far less virulent than the original variant that killed so many around the world.

Plus we don't know everything about Omicron yet so you cannot speculate that existing vaccines won't also reduce contagion of this variant along with reduce the level of sickness and death in those who are infected.

I put one and one together and come up with the conclusion that is more likely than not the media is again sensationalizing Omicron rather than informing the public of all the facts to help us get a good perspective on the true risks of the newly discovered variant. The WHO is also embarrassed how it handled the original outbreak.

Be careful you might end up with a rant from some here in the forum.
At this time not much has been said about the virulence. We can gauge the response on the forum for the amount of panic being pushed with the media.
Get the Vax is a good defense against this but the media has pushed sensationalism this entire time. Why stop now I guess is their motto.

 

[Ultrairon]

It's not that much about me, it's more that I really want to get out of this on and off lockdown and the political concentration on this problem. And if it's worse than Delta than I don't see that.

Where I am life has not been locked down. I know many have suffered under contstant lock downs and I would lose my mind also if that was the case. I think its best to see where this is going.

 

[Ultrairon]

I have heard the same trope frequently about transmission making viruses less deadly, but it is not something that is universally true. Often it might appear that a virus is weakening. For instance, we have seen fatalities falling in places like the UK. But the 'weakening ' is actually populations gaining immunity. Novelty is what make viruses dangerous. Spanish flu would not kill 100m people if it were released in 2021 because everybody has some pre existing immunity to its viral descendants. In 1917-8, it was novel, so it was very deadly. Viruses and their host species usually find a dynamic equilibrium where you don't see much change over time, but that requires time and SC2 is still adapting.

We are going to see a lot of stories over the next month about how immune evasive omicron is. It will take longer to see how serious it is compared to delta.

Unrelated to Omicron, here is a paper that shows why the vaccinated are probably much less contagious.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1463363625356181506

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfPCDoherty/status/1463363625356181506

Spanish flu took aprox 2 years. We are close to that now with covid. So with you post you are predicting a good month of stories playing up omnicron? I predict the media to push misinformation much longer.

 

[movingtarget]

Meanwhile in Slovakia bizzare universe they introduced proposal to bribe seniors to get a vaccine 500 eur cupon for restaurants, hotels, services for seniors vaccinated 3rd shot. Non vaccinate have a chance. They can used it after they will get all three shots sometime in next summer.

Like the virus, fraud and exploitation is ever evolving especially with our reliance on technology now. The last time I was surprised by human behavior............

 

[djpbaltimore]

Perhaps not 'universally' true but is it true more often than not? Greater than 50% of scenarios?

Scale and perspective is important. This is where the media habitually fails the world in its reporting of the pandemic.

How many people would test positive to antibodies for influenza or the common cold if we actually tested for it? Why does it matter if you don't experience symptoms?

What really matters about Omicron is its virulence. If Omicron is even less virulent than delta then I think we need to calm down. Delta seems far less virulent than the original variant that killed so many around the world.

Plus we don't know everything about Omicron yet so you cannot speculate that existing vaccines won't also reduce contagion of this variant along with reduce the level of sickness and death in those who are infected.

I put one and one together and come up with the conclusion that is more likely than not the media is again sensationalizing Omicron rather than informing the public of all the facts to help us get a good perspective on the true risks of the newly discovered variant. The WHO is also embarrassed how it handled the original outbreak.

I think weakening is something only really seen with really hot viruses that get people too sick too early, preventing transmission. I don't think it is coincidence that the Ebola variant from the last epidemic was much less severe than previous outbreaks. Before, it was so hot it couldn't spread easily. For SC2, ~95-98% of infections don't require hospitalization, so there really isn't pressure to be less severe.

I agree with a lot of what you wrote. In ~6 months, tests will only be used to tell which drug to use. Only a small minority of people who get the flu ever get tested. Honestly, I think that is where this is heading.

The media has done a poor job with variants. I agree that a lot of the coverage has been sensationalized. The proverbial boy who cried wolf. However, this one actually has the potential to be a wolf. I do not say that lightly. It has a lot of characteristics that make it problematic. But it is too early to say for sure. I agree with ultrairon that the best thing individuals can do is get vaccinated. T cell epitopes should be mostly preserved even if there is more antibody evasion.

There really is no need to panic. This is beyond our control. The best thing to do in my opinion is get the vax if you want and move on with life. With respect to the USA I was told it was racist to travel ban to Asia or Africa.

Travel bans don't work when the virus is already spreading in the country. So far, Omicron has been detected in Belgium, so we might see more restrictions to the EU. As a reminder, the virus that destroyed NYC in early 2020 did not come from Asia or Africa. It came from Italy.

I think they are following an order, it's just that the other named variants since delta weren't interesting enough to make much headlines?

Yes, exactly. But yesterday, even the epidemiologists were predicting nu rather than omicron.

Are they seriously calling this one Omicron? I swear I (and likely many other 80's Transformers fans) are going to see Unicron every time we see the name of his variant.

Naming them after transformers would be an improvement. People may take the thundercracker variant more seriously.

 

[Nomad]

Unrelated to Omicron, here is a paper that shows why the vaccinated are probably much less contagious.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1463363625356181506

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfPCDoherty/status/1463363625356181506

And here's a paper showing more evidence natural infection driven immunity to Delta is superior to subpar 2x mRNA vaccine driven immunity:

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant on incubation, transmission settings and vaccine effectiveness: Results from a nationwide case-control study in France

We aimed to assess the settings and activities associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the context of B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant circulation in France,…

www.sciencedirect.com

 

[Nomad]

More unnecessary panic & fearmongering:

Are We Overreacting to Omicron? ⋆ Brownstone Institute

The WHO’s reaction of generating panic toward “Omicron” is causing needless fear. So too with Biden administration’s travel restrictions.

brownstone.org

 

[djpbaltimore]

More unnecessary panic & fearmongering:

Are We Overreacting to Omicron? ⋆ Brownstone Institute

The WHO’s reaction of generating panic toward “Omicron” is causing needless fear. So too with Biden administration’s travel restrictions.

brownstone.org

Why should we take the herd immunity guy seriously? Imagine if that had been the strategy and then delta hits requiring 90% of people getting infected. Alexander is one of the wrongest people around. Period. Google that clown before reading.

Of course he is now promoting the 'virus is weakening' argument without any evidence. People are dying 2 weeks after they have stopped being contagious. And even then, that is only 1 in 100-200 cases. I hate to break it to him, but that will not put any appreciable selective pressure on this virus to weaken.

 

[Nomad]

Why should we take the herd immunity guy seriously? Imagine if that had been the strategy and then delta hits requiring 90% of people getting infected. Alexander is one of the wrongest people around. Period. Google that clown before reading.

Of course he is now promoting the 'virus is weakening' argument without any evidence. People are dying 2 weeks after they have stopped being contagious. And even then, that is only 1 in 100-200 cases. I hate to break it to him, but that will not put any appreciable selective pressure on this virus to weaken.

"Dr Alexander holds a PhD. He has experience in epidemiology and in the teaching clinical epidemiology, evidence-based medicine, and research methodology. Dr Alexander is a former Assistant Professor at McMaster University in evidence-based medicine and research methods; former COVID Pandemic evidence-synthesis consultant advisor to WHO-PAHO Washington, DC (2020) and former senior advisor to COVID Pandemic policy in Health and Human Services (HHS) Washington, DC (A Secretary), US government; worked/appointed in 2008 at WHO as a regional specialist/epidemiologist in Europe's Regional office Denmark, worked for the government of Canada as an epidemiologist for 12 years, appointed as the Canadian in-field epidemiologist (2002-2004) as part of an international CIDA funded, Health Canada executed project on TB/HIV co-infection and MDR-TB control (involving India, Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Afghanistan, posted to Kathmandu); employed from 2017 to 2019 at Infectious Diseases Society of America (IDSA) Virginia USA as the evidence synthesis meta-analysis systematic review guideline development trainer; currently a COVID-19 consultant researcher in the US-C19 research group."

Why don't you reach out and discuss your differences with him instead of reverting to unprofessional juvenile name calling? You don't know everything about this pandemic - you tend just to follow the Fauci & MSM fearmongering narrative! Lol.

 

[djpbaltimore]

A lot of 'former' positions on that resume. Hmmmm......Wonder why that is?

 

[jmdirt]

I think weakening is something only really seen with really hot viruses that get people too sick too early, preventing transmission. I don't think it is coincidence that the Ebola variant from the last epidemic was much less severe than previous outbreaks. Before, it was so hot it couldn't spread easily. For SC2, ~95-98% of infections don't require hospitalization, so there really isn't pressure to be less severe.

I agree with a lot of what you wrote. In ~6 months, tests will only be used to tell which drug to use. Only a small minority of people who get the flu ever get tested. Honestly, I think that is where this is heading.

The media has done a poor job with variants. I agree that a lot of the coverage has been sensationalized. The proverbial boy who cried wolf. However, this one actually has the potential to be a wolf. I do not say that lightly. It has a lot of characteristics that make it problematic. But it is too early to say for sure. I agree with ultrairon that the best thing individuals can do is get vaccinated. T cell epitopes should be mostly preserved even if there is more antibody evasion.
Travel bans don't work when the virus is already spreading in the country. So far, Omicron has been detected in Belgium, so we might see more restrictions to the EU. As a reminder, the virus that destroyed NYC in early 2020 did not come from Asia or Africa. It came from Italy.

Yes, exactly. But yesterday, even the epidemiologists were predicting nu rather than omicron.

Naming them after transformers would be an improvement. People may take the thundercracker variant more seriously.

I just listened to an epidemiologist and one of the things that he said is that travel bans might buy 7-10 days for the USA. He also said that it might already be here, we just don't know yet.

 

[Ultrairon]

.tests for anyone who wants one..still not a reality..you can pee on a stick to know if you are pregnant..which I guess is also life or death,but you can't test yourself Monday or Sunday night to confirm hangover or the other Corona..

Not sure where you are, but in the USA you can get a home test for Covid aka Corona at any pharmacy. That is a test you can do any day of the week.

 

[Ultrairon]

So there are just at 53 confirmed cases of this new variant but the increase in the number of coivd positives are going up. The main issue is what are the hospitalizations and deaths with this variant. Why not wait and analyze the data? The South African countries are a little agitated with the travel ban decisions who could blame them.
Its not possible the USA covid team got enough data within a couple of hours time and did any type of analysis before a travel ban was mentioned. More like a decision made in haste. But we were told previously that science works not travel bans.

South Africa grapples with new COVID variant that could be more transmissible and more resistant to vaccines

Until recently, South Africa had seen a period of relatively low transmission, and was typically recording about 200 confirmed cases per day. But the daily number of infections rapidly rose above 1,200 on Wednesday alone - and almost doubled again to 2,465 on Thursday.

news.sky.com

 

[Ultrairon]

A lot of 'former' positions on that resume. Hmmmm......Wonder why that is?

Fauci and that Aids vax. how did that work out?

 

[Koronin]

Naming them after transformers would be an improvement. People may take the thundercracker variant more seriously.

It certainly couldn't hurt.

 

[Jagartrott]

The inbound planes from S-Africa to The Netherlands were stopped on the tarmac yesterday, and all passengers needed to be tested for covid-19. 61/600 turn out to be positive, but not yet clear for which variant. All of the 12+ aged passengers needed to take a fast covid-test before boarding, by the way.

Meanwhile, they believe that the case discovered in Belgium was the result of local transmission. There are also no direct flights between Belgium and S-Africa. More than 40 'suspect' cases are still being investigated in Belgium.

This is one hell of a virus...

 

[Ranagazoo]

Its from the Greek alphabet, but I'm not sure why they aren't following more of an order...

They skipped nu because calling it 'the new variant' would get confusing once it's not new, and they skipped xi because 'the xi variant' probably wouldn't go down too well in China