Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[djpbaltimore]

Cases are coming down here, but we still haven't even dropped to the HIGH points of the other surges...hopefully soon. Deaths are dropping fast though which is important! I look forward to days with ZERO deaths again!

The numbers in the US had been going down, but the trend has seemed to plateau and even has reversed a bit. And 70k+ cases is still really too high to brag about.

The word endemic has been thrown around recently. In the US, 60k people died in January. About a quarter of that were in people already vaccinated. Plenty more of those were also reinfections. That fraction is probably what we should expect as the endemic level of disease during peak season in future winters. Flu season was pretty mild this year, but I don't see how we can muddle through next winter with both present and not do anything. The cracks in the system are showing.

 

[jmdirt]

The numbers in the US had been going down, but the trend has seemed to plateau and even has reversed a bit. And 70k+ cases is still really too high to brag about.

The word endemic has been thrown around recently. In the US, 60k people died in January. About a quarter of that were in people already vaccinated. Plenty more of those were also reinfections. That fraction is probably what we should expect as the endemic level of disease during peak season in future winters. Flu season was pretty mild this year, but I don't see how we can muddle through next winter with both present and not do anything. The cracks in the system are showing.

I was just talking about Idaho, not USA, but the trend is similar (big drop, plateau, slight rises, slight drop...).

 

[djpbaltimore]

I was just talking about Idaho, not USA, but the trend is similar (big drop, plateau, slight rises, slight drop...).

Idaho is interesting. You have a plateau higher than most. Last Monday was a holiday, so the data could be noisier than usual for a few more days.

Looking at Australia and they have been on a plateau all february. That means R = 1. Very easy to predict another omicron wave to coincide with their flu season, especially with relaxed travel restrictions. But, I doubt it will overrun the hospitals. See, I'm being optimistic.

 

[jmdirt]

Idaho is interesting. You have a plateau higher than most. Last Monday was a holiday, so the data could be noisier than usual for a few more days.

Looking at Australia and they have been on a plateau all february. That means R = 1. Very easy to predict another omicron wave to coincide with their flu season, especially with relaxed travel restrictions. But, I doubt it will overrun the hospitals. See, I'm being optimistic.

Idaho data is tough to follow day to day because the lab(s) are 40% understaffed. There is always a backlog of several thousand confirmations so day to day totals aren't completely relevant. Week to week is slightly better.

 

[Unchained]

Celebrity save lives?... wrong. How can educated people be influenced by actors.? ACTORS hard for me to believe.
Bill Gates tells you to eat dog crap and you will get more dogs.

if you were to Google search what you don't know it would go something like this..If Frank Sinatra,Elvis,Oprah or Kylie Jenner tell you to behave in a certain way..let's say..give blood, get organ donor endorsement on your drivers license,wear mask,get vaccinated..people respond..the undisputed,unmistakable facts of celebrity influence are everywhere..just ask Dodge or Doritos Coke!!
if you just peek out from under the rock Mylie Cyrus, Little NasX has more social influence than Dan Rather or other icons,Barbara Walters..
celebrity influence has been used since the American revolution..Look at what happened in WWll a mobilization..Polio vaccine..celebrity always has had a part..Clarke Kent, Louis Lane..and the morning rag, the nightly news
that ship has sailed..more people watching Soft White Underbelly than many everything news casts or larger following than many small to medium size newspapers subscription base..
if you want to get Covid info out go where the people are not where they were..
Hint..if you are understanding what malarkey is you need a media consultant

 

[Unchained]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5q7HkxNhnXA

 

[movingtarget]

They are activists not actors. No doubt Leonardo DiCaprio has shared his wisdom

I guess he's as qualified as Greta Thunberg............

 

[Ultrairon]

He must like dogs. Numbers still trending down around the world. Great news.

 

[FrankB]

if you were to Google search what you don't know it would go something like this..If Frank Sinatra,Elvis,Oprah or Kylie Jenner tell you to behave in a certain way..let's say..give blood, get organ donor endorsement on your drivers license,wear mask,get vaccinated..people respond..the undisputed,unmistakable facts of celebrity influence are everywhere..just ask Dodge or Doritos Coke!!
if you just peek out from under the rock Mylie Cyrus, Little NasX has more social influence than Dan Rather or other icons,Barbara Walters..
celebrity influence has been used since the American revolution..Look at what happened in WWll a mobilization..Polio vaccine..celebrity always has had a part..Clarke Kent, Louis Lane..and the morning rag, the nightly news
that ship has sailed..more people watching Soft White Underbelly than many everything news casts or larger following than many small to medium size newspapers subscription base..
if you want to get Covid info out go where the people are not where they were..
Hint..if you are understanding what malarkey is you need a media consultant

i always look to beyonce for my health and well being advice

 

[Cookster15]

Looking at Australia and they have been on a plateau all february. That means R = 1. Very easy to predict another omicron wave to coincide with their flu season, especially with relaxed travel restrictions. But, I doubt it will overrun the hospitals. See, I'm being optimistic.

That is a lop sided "plateau"? The 7 day moving average new Covid cases for NSW Australia dropped from about 10k/day at start of February to 6k/day by Feb 27. Of course in January the 7 day moving average spiked to 47,000. so we are down 87%. And remember restrictions were eased not strengthened during this time!

Last night I visited my local supermarket and noticed few wearing masks! Yet cases are falling.

Here are the latest Covid hospitalizations to confirm your "optimistic" outlook . As of the end of February Covid hospitalizations are down by 1,807 since the peak on Jan 25. Great news

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

 

[djpbaltimore]

That is a lop sided "plateau"? The 7 day moving average new Covid cases for NSW Australia dropped from about 10k/day at start of February to 6k/day by Feb 27. Of course in January the 7 day moving average spiked to 47,000. so we are down 87%. And remember restrictions were eased not strengthened during this time!

Last night I visited my local supermarket and noticed few wearing masks! Yet cases are falling.

Here are the latest Covid hospitalizations to confirm your "optimistic" outlook . As of the end of February Covid hospitalizations are down by 1,807 since the peak on Jan 25. Great news

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

I was not talking about NSW cases. Australia has been averaging 25k cases daily all of february. If cases are going down in NSW, they are going up elsewhere. I think people still don't fully understand how exponential effects work, even 2 years in. It is one thing to keep R = 1 when the wind is at your back. But as soon as you turn into the wind...

 

[Cookster15]

I was not talking about NSW cases. Australia has been averaging 25k cases daily all of february. If cases are going down in NSW, they are going up elsewhere. I think people still don't fully understand how exponential effects work, even 2 years in. It is one thing to keep R = 1 when the wind is at your back. But as soon as you turn into the wind...

I looked at Australia. There is no plateau and yes I understand the exponential trend particularly when it repeated all over the world.

 

[Ultrairon]

The numbers in the US had been going down, but the trend has seemed to plateau and even has reversed a bit. And 70k+ cases is still really too high to brag about.

The word endemic has been thrown around recently. In the US, 60k people died in January. About a quarter of that were in people already vaccinated. Plenty more of those were also reinfections. That fraction is probably what we should expect as the endemic level of disease during peak season in future winters. Flu season was pretty mild this year, but I don't see how we can muddle through next winter with both present and not do anything. The cracks in the system are showing.

Easy on that 70k+ looks like more good news. 16 and 10 k from the past couple of days.

CDT Redirect Page

 

[djpbaltimore]

I looked at Australia. There is no plateau and yes I can read an exponential trend.

Apparently, you can't read a graph.

7 day average on Feb 2: 21,071
7 day average on Feb 9: 18,732
7 day average on Feb 16: 21,937
7 day average on Feb 23: 22,553
7 day average on Feb 27: 26,023

That is the textbook definition of a plateau.

Easy on that 70k+ looks like more good news. 16 and 10 k from the past couple of days.

CDT Redirect Page

Cherry picking Saturday and Sunday is not very convincing. Those are always going to be below the averages because of how few states report over the weekend.

 

[Ultrairon]

That is a lop sided "plateau"? The 7 day moving average new Covid cases for NSW Australia dropped from about 10k/day at start of February to 6k/day by Feb 27. Of course in January the 7 day moving average spiked to 47,000. so we are down 87%. And remember restrictions were eased not strengthened during this time!

Last night I visited my local supermarket and noticed few wearing masks! Yet cases are falling.

Here are the latest Covid hospitalizations to confirm your "optimistic" outlook . As of the end of February Covid hospitalizations are down by 1,807 since the peak on Jan 25. Great news

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Something wrong when someone will tell me that I am looking at 7 day avg for hospitalizations and then do the same thing with respect to Australia.

 

[Ultrairon]

Apparently, you can't read a graph.

7 day average on Feb 2: 21,071
7 day average on Feb 9: 18,732
7 day average on Feb 16: 21,937
7 day average on Feb 23: 22,553
7 day average on Feb 27: 26,023

That is the textbook definition of a plateau.


Cherry picking Saturday and Sunday is not very convincing. Those are always going to be below the averages because of how few states report over the weekend.

Lets see how it goes. Those are good numbers and are lower than previous weekends. Why get into using terms like Cherry Picking. I could say you do the same thing with your previous USA hospitalizations for 7 day trends. Why such a outlook?

 

[djpbaltimore]

7 day trends (or 14 day) are the only worthwhile numbers when there are reporting issues on weekends. This is not rocket science. Hospitalizations are cumulative and do not have the same reporting issues as case numbers. We are talking about two entirely different metrics.

 

[Ultrairon]

7 day trends (or 14 day) are the only worthwhile numbers when there are reporting issues on weekends. This is not rocket science. Hospitalizations are cumulative and do not have the same reporting issues as case numbers. We are talking about two entirely different metrics.

When it was on its way up for Hospitalizations you said that 7 day numbers were not telling the story for Maryland. Now they are? These 7 day trends look great.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Even better for Maryland.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[djpbaltimore]

When it was on its way up for Hospitalizations you said that 7 day numbers were not telling the story for Maryland. Now they are? These 7 day trends look great.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

Even better for Maryland.

Weekly Hospitalization Trends - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

This chart displays the 7-day trend in overall and Covid-19-specific hospitalization occupancy data to help understand changes in capacity and level of stress on hospitals.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

No. I just said that 7 day trends are not needed for hospitalizations because there are not weekend reporting effects like there are for case numbers. You need to read what I wrote.

Maryland is doing well because of a lot of residual masking and a relatively high vaccination rate. Total hospitalizations are below 400.

 

[Ultrairon]

No. I just said that 7 day trends are not needed for hospitalizations because there are not weekend reporting effects like there are for case numbers. You need to read what I wrote.

Maryland is doing well because of a lot of residual masking and a relatively high vaccination rate. Total hospitalizations are below 400.

Vax yes mask not really.

 

[Unchained]

good argument for not taking health advice from Bill Gates
https://www.theblaze.com/news/joe-r...y1-shHf6E5wMqlWAZre23NXADMFTJlMqVySFv-SpmFP3g

I see your point..and I am sure that Bill Gates is super susceptible to body shame because he used to be known as such a hunk!! I wonder if he needed to do extra bench presses the last time he gave away $300+ million dollars!!And Joe Rogan has on air admitted to being juiced..
but from a Covid standpoint a head to head comparison..or really any philanthropy or health issue..Rogan has donated how much? How many years of his time spent working on health issues??
Oh God please let someone type in an answer!!! Comedy gold..

 

[Cookster15]

Apparently, you can't read a graph.

7 day average on Feb 2: 21,071
7 day average on Feb 9: 18,732
7 day average on Feb 16: 21,937
7 day average on Feb 23: 22,553
7 day average on Feb 27: 26,023

That is the textbook definition of a plateau.


Cherry picking Saturday and Sunday is not very convincing. Those are always going to be below the averages because of how few states report over the weekend.

I think you know I can read a graph.

But the difference between Feb 2 and Feb 27 is statistically insignificant looking at the full dataset. Curious that you accuse me of cherry picking. You are cherry picking metrics and time scales.

With respect, nobody in NSW Australia would prefer to be in Maryland USA. And we don't even need to wear masks shopping now (I do as a precaution). Hospitalizations and ICUs continue to trend downwards despite your attempts to catastrophize and patronize.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Hospitalizations are now down 63% since Jan 25.
Ventilated patients down 85% since Sep 18 (delta)
ICU patients down 93% since Sep 21.

Good news based upon irrefutable data !

 

[Unchained]

Can you imagine the thought process were a Covid scientists outward appearance,their physical ability, fitness would be a significant factor in their credibility or professional expertise..but still a MMA announcer has significant sway in a scientific discussion..

US COVID-19 cases and deaths by state

How is the nation faring against COVID-19, both overall and at a state level? Get the answers here, with data on hotspots and infection rates. This map tracks the history of coronavirus cases in America, both recent and all-time.

usafacts.org

Almost a million dead and as sad,you don't have to ask why..reality show hosts are modern philosophers in America today..people are just desperate..

 

[Unchained]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=zlISLBBnYOo

 

[djpbaltimore]

Easy on that 70k+ looks like more good news. 16 and 10 k from the past couple of days.

CDT Redirect Page

120k cases today. See why focusing on weekend numbers is misleading?

I think you know I can read a graph.

But the difference between Feb 2 and Feb 27 is statistically insignificant looking at the full dataset. Curious that you accuse me of cherry picking. You are cherry picking metrics and time scales.

With respect, nobody in NSW Australia would prefer to be in Maryland USA. And we don't even need to wear masks shopping now (I do as a precaution). Hospitalizations and ICUs continue to trend downwards despite your attempts to catastrophize and patronize.

Daily Cases Admitted to Hospital - COVID Live

Hospitalizations are now down 63% since Jan 25.
Ventilated patients down 85% since Sep 18 (delta)
ICU patients down 93% since Sep 21.

Good news based upon irrefutable data !

Yes, the difference is not significant. That is my point. There have been 20k cases a day for a month. The numbers aren't falling like before. They have hit a plateau. So R= 1. It won't take much to cause another wave of cases with flu season approaching for your hemisphere.