Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[yaco]

I find it strange that America is one of the first countries to develop an anti-body test for COVID19, yet took forever to find a testing kit for infected COVID19 patients.

 

[Sciatic]

I find it strange that America is one of the first countries to develop an anti-body test for COVID19, yet took forever to find a testing kit for infected COVID19 patients.

Not strange at all—and well documented that many university labs were virtually pleading the federal CDC agency to go ahead with developing testing, which they were amply capable of doing, but the CDC insisted on keeping control of that process even after they realized they had f$@ked up their own response in multiple ways. Hope someone can press criminal charges against them.

 

[yaco]

Not strange at all—and well documented that many university labs were virtually pleading the federal CDC agency to go ahead with developing testing, which they were amply capable of doing, but the CDC insisted on keeping control of that process even after they realized they had f$@ked up their own response in multiple ways. Hope someone can press criminal charges against them.

Yes, I am fully aware of the background but many aren't.

 

[jmdirt]

I'm concerned about the restlessness growing in Idaho (other less populated areas are the same it sounds like). I get it that our overall numbers are low (deaths and tested infected), and I get it that some people, well, don't get it. My biggest concern is political leaders who don't get it. Fortunately our governor extended the stay at home order through April despite pressure from his own party (that's not a political discussion, just identifying facts). That set off a storm of BS that is going to really rile up the rebels and stir up those who were on the edge. I think that the precautions have helped, but maybe we will find out the hard what happens next...

 

[Sciatic]

I'm concerned about the restlessness growing in Idaho (other less populated areas are the same it sounds like). I get it that our overall numbers are low (deaths and tested infected), and I get it that some people, well, don't get it. My biggest concern is political leaders who don't get it. Fortunately our governor extended the stay at home order through April despite pressure from his own party (that's not a political discussion, just identifying facts). That set off a storm of BS that is going to really rile up the rebels and stir up those who were on the edge. I think that the precautions have helped, but maybe we will find out the hard what happens next...

Ah, Idaho. Politically a nation apart even among western states. Was a grad student at U. of I. In the mid-1990s, and while Moscow (ID) was an extremely atypical community, traveling to towns elsewhere in the state was always eye-opener. A school buddy who worked for the forest service during the summer described how he would NEVER, ever, wear his U.S. Forest Service uniform into town, even if just to go shopping or fill up on gas. And they had to frequently replace the USFS Ranger Station sign outside their headquarters because locals would quickly shoot it full of holes each time they put up a new one. The local congresswoman, Helen Chenoweth, was a big believer in “black helicopters” (supposedly feds) spying on locals.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I'm concerned about the restlessness growing in Idaho (other less populated areas are the same it sounds like). I get it that our overall numbers are low (deaths and tested infected), and I get it that some people, well, don't get it. My biggest concern is political leaders who don't get it. Fortunately our governor extended the stay at home order through April despite pressure from his own party (that's not a political discussion, just identifying facts). That set off a storm of BS that is going to really rile up the rebels and stir up those who were on the edge. I think that the precautions have helped, but maybe we will find out the hard what happens next...

There were already issues in Michigan today, so... yeah. Expect that to happen relatively soon. The more effective the countermeasures were, the more people there will be that will think they were unnecessary and overblown.

 

[jmdirt]

Ah, Idaho. Politically a nation apart even among western states. Was a grad student at U. of I. In the mid-1990s, and while Moscow (ID) was an extremely atypical community, traveling to towns elsewhere in the state was always eye-opener. A school buddy who worked for the forest service during the summer described how he would NEVER, ever, wear his U.S. Forest Service uniform into town, even if just to go shopping or fill up on gas. And they had to frequently replace the USFS Ranger Station sign outside their headquarters because locals would quickly shoot it full of holes each time they put up a new one. The local congresswoman, Helen Chenoweth, was a big believer in “black helicopters” (supposedly feds) spying on locals.

Not a lot has changed since you were here. I grew up in Priest River, but have lived in Boise for 25 years. Boise isn't a 'nation apart' , but like you said, you don't have to drive far to fall off. Do you remember the bumper stickers "Can Helen, Not Salmon"?

At the risk of tickling the political rules of the forum, one of the most powerful Rs in the state (house speaker now) won his election 20 years ago with ~1,000 votes. He is one of the ones pushing to open things up now because C19 hasn't hit his town of 4,000 (big town in them there parts).

 

[jmdirt]

There were already issues in Michigan today, so... yeah. Expect that to happen relatively soon. The more effective the countermeasures were, the more people there will be that will think they were unnecessary and overblown.

Why don't people understand that maybe the reason we have low numbers is because we are taking precautions?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Resentment is a powerful drug.

 

[Merckx index]

That was actually a good write-up by Passan. It doesn't sound like the Cellex test if it only takes 10 min. There are many diagnostics being made, so it will be interesting to see which one they used. I imagine the pre-print will be up within a week or two.

I would think it will be out very soon. Someone will know the main results by the weekend. The 10,000 subjects means that there will be enough positives to have a reasonably low range of uncertainty. The questionnaire assures us that all the people who test positive who also tested positive for the virus will be identified, which means we can estimate the proportion of asymptomatics (or at least people whose symptoms weren't strong enough to prompt them to get tested). We may also get some insight into where people may have picked up the virus.

There were already issues in Michigan today,

I do think Whitmer is overdoing it. People aren't supposed to leave their homes, it's April, what could millions of people do that would give them some pleasure (maybe even put a little food on the table) without leaving their property? Plant a garden! And Whitmer says, no, you can't do that, that's not essential. Toilet paper isn't essential, either.

I get Whitmer's logic. You close off large gardening supply areas of stores, and you prevent a little spreading of the virus that would occur from people congregating in these areas. But it seems to me that you have to balance this against the great value of gardening to many people mostly confined to their homes. It's a reminder that some things that have always gone on can still go on.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

I do think Whitmer is overdoing it. People aren't supposed to leave their homes, it's April, what could millions of people do that would give them some pleasure (maybe even put a little food on the table) without leaving their property? Plant a garden! And Whitmer says, no, you can't do that, that's not essential. Toilet paper isn't essential, either.

I get Whitmer's logic. You close off large gardening supply areas of stores, and you prevent a little spreading of the virus that would occur from people congregating in these areas. But it seems to me that you have to balance this against the great value of gardening to many people mostly confined to their homes. It's a reminder that some things that have always gone on can still go on.

Petty tyrants do what they do. Auditioning hard for higher office isn‘t without risk.

 

[hrotha]

Somehow I doubt those folks with MAGA caps and assault rifles were protesting gardening restrictions.

From a Spanish point of view, it's amazing to see so many people not giving a damn about the lockdown, flocking to public parks or talking about how people in their countries can't possibly be expected to stay home. Puts the whole "undisciplined southern Europeans" trope into perspective, really.

 

[jmdirt]

I would think it will be out very soon. Someone will know the main results by the weekend. The 10,000 subjects means that there will be enough positives to have a reasonably low range of uncertainty. The questionnaire assures us that all the people who test positive who also tested positive for the virus will be identified, which means we can estimate the proportion of asymptomatics (or at least people whose symptoms weren't strong enough to prompt them to get tested). We may also get some insight into where people may have picked up the virus.



I do think Whitmer is overdoing it. People aren't supposed to leave their homes, it's April, what could millions of people do that would give them some pleasure (maybe even put a little food on the table) without leaving their property? Plant a garden! And Whitmer says, no, you can't do that, that's not essential. Toilet paper isn't essential, either.

I get Whitmer's logic. You close off large gardening supply areas of stores, and you prevent a little spreading of the virus that would occur from people congregating in these areas. But it seems to me that you have to balance this against the great value of gardening to many people mostly confined to their homes. It's a reminder that some things that have always gone on can still go on.

Didn't garden centers get closed because too many people were using them as social gathering spots? I might have my states confused...

 

[djpbaltimore]

Somehow I doubt those folks with MAGA caps and assault rifles were protesting gardening restrictions.

From a Spanish point of view, it's amazing to see so many people not giving a damn about the lockdown, flocking to public parks or talking about how people in their countries can't possibly be expected to stay home. Puts the whole "undisciplined southern Europeans" trope into perspective, really.

And confederate flags. Yep. Passionate gardeners.

It was snowing. Also great for gardening. I doubt the ground is thawed.

 

[jmdirt]

I just watched an interview with an understandably tearful woman who's hair/nail salon is closed as non essential. Several times she said: "this is my livelihood". I'm sure that she isn't alone, and millions of people could have given a similar interview. I couldn't help but thinking though, is your livelihood worth dying for? I know that's extreme, but are they thinking big picture? The stress makes it tough to think clearly for sure.

 

[Koronin]

I just watched an interview with an understandably tearful woman who's hair/nail salon is closed as non essential. Several times she said: "this is my livelihood". I'm sure that she isn't alone, and millions of people could have given a similar interview. I couldn't help but thinking though, is your livelihood worth dying for? I know that's extreme, but are they thinking big picture? The stress makes it tough to think clearly for sure.

The reason given here for closing hair/nail salons and massage places is because you can't adhere to social distancing by the nature of the business. However here garden centers are open and you can start planting things, but I'm farther south.

 

[Merckx index]

I lived in Minnesota for many years, and always began planting a garden in April. You can plant root vegetables like carrots, radishes, and beets, and leafy ones like spinach and lettuce before the last frost. Then in May you can plant warm weather veggies like tomatoes, squash, beans, corn, and the like. Except for corn, these are usually begun in pots indoors before then, though.

The Administration's plan to re-open part of the economy, possibly in May, depends on ramped up testing--at least 500,000 a day--and according to this analysis, the U.S. is nowhere near having the capacity to do that:

This is one reason the plans to end social distancing are so grim: Not only do they suggest that some level of social distancing will be needed for the next year or so (until a vaccine or a similarly effective treatment is widely available) — which we don’t know if the country can sustain — but they call for a level of surveillance and testing the US simply hasn’t shown the ability and willingness to build and manage yet.

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/15/21222029/coronavirus-trump-plan-reopen-economy-end-social-distancing

 

[Koronin]

I lived in Minnesota for many years, and always began planting a garden in April. You can plant root vegetables like carrots, radishes, and beets, and leafy ones like spinach and lettuce before the last frost. Then in May you can plant warm weather veggies like tomatoes, squash, beans, corn, and the like. Except for corn, these are usually begun in pots indoors before then, though.

The Administration's plan to re-open part of the economy, possibly in May, depends on ramped up testing--at least 500,000 a day--and according to this analysis, the U.S. is nowhere near having the capacity to do that:



https://www.vox.com/2020/4/15/21222029/coronavirus-trump-plan-reopen-economy-end-social-distancing

Yep, my Governor today said that to start reopening the state we need a lot more testing capacity.

 

[Merckx index]

This is the most objective account I've seen of what China's leadership was really doing in early January:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...blic_during_6_key_days_in_january_142952.html


U.S. iIntel s now investigating the possibility that the virus originated from a lab studying bat viruses. One such lab is apparently just a few hundred meters from the wet market, while another is further away in Wuhan. The Chinese-authored paper laying out the evidence for this was censored by the authorities. If the virus really did result from a lab, someone has to know this. All you would have to do is compare the sequence of the lab virus with the published sequence from the virus isolated from patients. In fact, when the patient sequence was first published, I'm surprised that someone in the lab didn't check to see if there was a match. But apparently the CCP really does not want this idea floating around.

Here's an article on Ab false positives, which claims that many of the tests currently being used have false positive rates that are a problem, given the likelihood that true positives are likely to be relatively few:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ibody-tests-for-coronavirus-can-miss-the-mark

The author does use somewhat confusing terminology. In standard terminology, specificity refers to what % of true positives a test picks up (the more specific, the fewer false negatives); while selectivity refers to what % of positives picked up are true positives (the more selective, the fewer false positives). The author uses sensitivity instead of specificity, and specificity instead of selectivity.

 

[Cannavaro]

In Belgium 7000 staff members of retirement homes were tested: 13% of them had the virus (73% of them were asymptomatic). Also more than 6000 residents were tested: 20% had the virus! (69% of them were asymptomatic)
The results can be found on page 4

 

[jmdirt]

The reason given here for closing hair/nail salons and massage places is because you can't adhere to social distancing by the nature of the business. However here garden centers are open and you can start planting things, but I'm farther south.

My point is that people are either willing to risk illness/death to go back to work, or they aren't putting it together that their livelihood could be the end of their livelihood.

I haven't had someone else cut my hair since my ETS hair cut from the Army ('90), but when/how can I safely get my teeth cleaned again (etc).

 

[djpbaltimore]

I lived in Minnesota for many years, and always began planting a garden in April. You can plant root vegetables like carrots, radishes, and beets, and leafy ones like spinach and lettuce before the last frost. Then in May you can plant warm weather veggies like tomatoes, squash, beans, corn, and the like. Except for corn, these are usually begun in pots indoors before then, though.

The Administration's plan to re-open part of the economy, possibly in May, depends on ramped up testing--at least 500,000 a day--and according to this analysis, the U.S. is nowhere near having the capacity to do that:



https://www.vox.com/2020/4/15/21222029/coronavirus-trump-plan-reopen-economy-end-social-distancing

Hardware stores are open in Michigan for curbside delivery and gardening is not banned in Michigan. There is no reason to protest for gardening. It is resentment pure and simple.

This is the most objective account I've seen of what China's leadership was really doing in early January:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...blic_during_6_key_days_in_january_142952.html


U.S. iIntel s now investigating the possibility that the virus originated from a lab studying bat viruses. One such lab is apparently just a few hundred meters from the wet market, while another is further away in Wuhan. The Chinese-authored paper laying out the evidence for this was censored by the authorities. If the virus really did result from a lab, someone has to know this. All you would have to do is compare the sequence of the lab virus with the published sequence from the virus isolated from patients. In fact, when the patient sequence was first published, I'm surprised that someone in the lab didn't check to see if there was a match. But apparently the CCP really does not want this idea floating around.

Here's an article on Ab false positives, which claims that many of the tests currently being used have false positive rates that are a problem, given the likelihood that true positives are likely to be relatively few:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ibody-tests-for-coronavirus-can-miss-the-mark

The author does use somewhat confusing terminology. In standard terminology, specificity refers to what % of true positives a test picks up (the more specific, the fewer false negatives); while selectivity refers to what % of positives picked up are true positives (the more selective, the fewer false positives). The author uses sensitivity instead of specificity, and specificity instead of selectivity.

I posted it already, but scientists don't think the most likely scenario is via the lab route.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

 

[Jagartrott]

Blood bank analysis (sample of c. 4000 people) in The Netherlands for antibodies in blood collected the two last weeks of March shows c. 3% had antibodies. There are the issues discussed above concerning false positives + only 'healthy' people are allowed to donate blood, so everybody that felt ill (or was diagnosed with covid-19) wouldn't have been included in the results. So there's both an overestimation possible (the false positives) and an underestimation.

 

[Nomad]

This is the most objective account I've seen of what China's leadership was really doing in early January:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...blic_during_6_key_days_in_january_142952.html


U.S. iIntel s now investigating the possibility that the virus originated from a lab studying bat viruses. One such lab is apparently just a few hundred meters from the wet market, while another is further away in Wuhan. The Chinese-authored paper laying out the evidence for this was censored by the authorities. If the virus really did result from a lab, someone has to know this. All you would have to do is compare the sequence of the lab virus with the published sequence from the virus isolated from patients. In fact, when the patient sequence was first published, I'm surprised that someone in the lab didn't check to see if there was a match. But apparently the CCP really does not want this idea floating around.

Here's an article on Ab false positives, which claims that many of the tests currently being used have false positive rates that are a problem, given the likelihood that true positives are likely to be relatively few:

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...ibody-tests-for-coronavirus-can-miss-the-mark

The author does use somewhat confusing terminology. In standard terminology, specificity refers to what % of true positives a test picks up (the more specific, the fewer false negatives); while selectivity refers to what % of positives picked up are true positives (the more selective, the fewer false positives). The author uses sensitivity instead of specificity, and specificity instead of selectivity.

Exactly...on the growing suspicion that the virus originated from the level-4 biolab located in Wuhan. A few days ago I posted a link that went into more detail and a counterpoint was posted suggesting the virus came from a bat at the wet market. I'm not buying it. There's just too much suspicion going on with the Chinese government concerning this. What appears to be a cover-up with the misinformation & deception they gave from the get go. Plus the tie in with the WHO and the misinformation they provided (funding stopped immediately by President!). There's missing scientists and a couple of reporters that were on the ground in Wuhan investigating this story when they suddenly went missing. Also, none of our CDC people are allowed over there to investigate. No transparency with China - WTH are they hiding?

Growing belief that coronavirus originated in Wuhan lab, sources say

www.google.com

Senator Tom Cotton not happy about this:

Cotton says China's leadership 'must be made to pay the price' if coronavirus came from Wuhan lab

Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., told "Hannity" Wednesday that China's leadership "must be made to pay the price" if it is determined that the coronavirus pandemic originated in a Wuhan laboratory.

www.foxnews.com

"Since January, I've said it seems to be highly coincidental that this very contagious virus originated just a few hundred yards or maybe a couple miles from laboratories where the Chinese Communist Party researches coronaviruses," Cotton said. "Bret Baier's reporting tonight, if it bears out, shows that the Chinese Communist Party is responsible for every single death, every job lost, every retirement nest egg lost from this coronavirus, and Xi Jinping and his Chinese Communist apparatchiks must be made to pay the price. If that turns out to be true."

I couldn't agree more if this is found to be true. And who knows what else they have in that lab?

I don't know about anyone else here, but I wake up every day pinching myself that this real and not some nightmare. The destruction in human life and despair & agony brought on to the families of the victims is unreal! The total meltdown of world economies is on a scale never seen before in modern history. High levels of unemployment already seen worldwide are creating enormous stress & anxiety with tens of millions of people. And the foreseeable future looks bleak as we collectively enter into a Global Depression!

 

[Chris Gadsden]

And confederate flags. Yep. Passionate gardeners.

It was snowing. Also great for gardening. I doubt the ground is thawed.

Here's what the people get and the petty tyrant doesn't;



“Unemployment,” researchers wrote, “has one of the strongest impacts on well-being ... often lasting beyond the period of unemployment and being comparable with that of becoming disabled.”

The mental health impacts of unemployment can be devastating. A CDC study found suicide rates rise and fall with the economy.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...nemployment-warps-your-personality-over-time/

The individual-level relationship between unemployment and suicide is not new (Platt 1984). Alongside mental illness, relationship conflict and previous suicide attempts (World Health Organization 2014), job loss greatly heightens the risk of suicide. Therefore, during times of high unemployment when many individuals lose their jobs or are faced with job and financial insecurity, suicide rates often increase, particularly among men.
Across Europe and North America, Reeves et al (2014b) estimated that approximately 10,000 excess suicides took place in 2008-10; so called “economic suicides”. The increase in the suicide rate associated with the recession was also four times higher among men than women, exacerbating the existing gender gap in suicide.

https://www.nationalelfservice.net/...ides-across-the-world-linked-to-unemployment/

Overall, we obtain strong evidence that opioid-related deaths and ED visits increase during times of economic weakness, although the results vary somewhat with the unit of observation (county vs. state) and the exact specifications estimated. In the main county-level models, our preferred specification indicates that a one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate raises predicted opioid-involved mortality rates by 0.19 per 100,000, corresponding to a 3.6 percent growth and an unemployment elasticity of mortality of around 0.23. These effects are largely driven by changes in the death rates of whites in most estimates, with much smaller (but still mostly positive) increases predicted for Hispanics. Opioid-related ED visits are also anticipated to rise in economic downturns, with strong effects here observed for blacks as well as whites. There are weaker, and less consistent, results for other mortality and ED outcomes (e. heroin-involved or other drug deaths), although often these results are in the same direction as for opioids. We find negative economic shocks to have larger adverse effects on drug related mortality and ED visits when we conduct our analysis at the state (rather than county) level. A one-point rise in unemployment is predicted to increase overall opioid-related mortality by 0.33 per 100,000, over one and a half times the size of the county-level estimates, corresponding to growth of 6.2 percent and an unemployment elasticity of around 0.39. These larger estimates could occur because counties are too narrow a unit of observation to observe the full macroeconomic effects (Lindo, 2015) or because the county-level models are more fully able to control for potential confounding factors.

https://www.nber.org/papers/w23192.pdf