Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[aphronesis]

The bulk of NY cases so far are 25-44 (mortality is still vectored to age.) That infection rate could be down to testing, clustering, networking and/or refusal to quarantine among others, while deaths can obviously be the result of other sociological externals that accrue to some people’s health (and limit their resources) more greatly with time so it’s maybe a bit premature (and cynical) to open it back up with no real constraints other than quarantine of the elderly.

 

[jmdirt]

I thought about posting the clip but I decided it was a bit too political. But the way certain influencers are floating the 'business as usual but the elderly and infirm in isolation' as a compromise solution really is madness. People really need to think hard about how re-opening the country occurs. Hong Kong and Singapore started opening up and were forced to retreat when cases started to creep up again.

Yes, I've been trying to figure out how to criticize the influencers who are discussing "the old people are willing to die to save the economy for their grand kids" stupidity without having a political component (especially since that is why they are putting it out there).

I'm neither the old nor the grand kid (I'm 52), but when I put myself in either of their shoes the answer is NO! 20-30 years ago I would not be willing to let my grandparents die to save the economy. In another 20-30 years I will not be willing to die to save the economy for the younger gens. We (USA) are less than a month into this and already the influencers are bailing! ...and I have to stop!

 

[aphronesis]

See if cynicism wins out or this management issue gets resolved this week

Weiterleitungshinweis

www.google.com

'Troubling and astronomical' coronavirus cases increase urgency for hospital beds, New York Gov. Cuomo says

Cases across the state are doubling about every three days, standing at 25,665 as of Tuesday — 10 times the number of cases in California.

www.google.com

 

[jmdirt]

https://www.cyclingnews.com/news/ben-king-i-feel-more-at-risk-in-the-usa-than-i-did-in-italy/

 

[Sestriere]

According to them they don't mention Coronavirus and use the pre existing condition(s) or a general pneumonia as cause of death, this morning they talked about that a good half an hour both on Sky and RaiNews with doctors stating that everyone know that among hospital workers/researchers.

So they are basically saying that deaths in Germany are 100 times higher than according to the official statistics? That would be 13,000 deaths. With 31,000 cases you'd have a death rate of 42%. More than 4 times higher than Italy, which already has a mortality much higher than any other country with a statistically significant case number. This is supposed to be more likely than Germany having a mortality comparable to Norway, Austria or Singapore? I highly doubt it, to say the least.

There are a number of articles that try to explain the relatively low mortality (which is going to rise) in Germany without spreading fake news, e.g.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts

 

[yaco]

Gotta say that the Governments and the health experts have handled this pandemic in an appalling way - The BIGGEST risk was always asymptomatic carriers spreading the disease, so once you reach 100 infections ( because the true figure is 5 or 10 times higher ) then you lockdown for 2 to 4 weeks and combine this with more testing - Then rinse and repeat - Government's of the world have let down their citizens.

 

[hrotha]

So they are basically saying that deaths in Germany are 100 times higher than according to the official statistics? That would be 13,000 deaths. With 31,000 cases you'd have a death rate of 42%. More than 4 times higher than Italy, which already has a mortality much higher than any other country with a statistically significant case number. This is supposed to be more likely than Germany having a mortality comparable to Norway, Austria or Singapore? I highly doubt it, to say the least.

There are a number of articles that try to explain the relatively low mortality (which is going to rise) in Germany without spreading fake news, e.g.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/22/germany-low-coronavirus-mortality-rate-puzzles-experts

According to this, Germany still has a very low figure of recovered patients, which might suggest the disease is still at an early stage there (in terms of local transmission).

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah Germany are obviously catching them earlier which might explain a large part of the difference.

Gotta say that the Governments and the health experts have handled this pandemic in an appalling way - The BIGGEST risk was always asymptomatic carriers spreading the disease, so once you reach 100 infections ( because the true figure is 5 or 10 times higher ) then you lockdown for 2 to 4 weeks and combine this with more testing - Then rinse and repeat - Government's of the world have let down their citizens.

It's my favorite argument of the last few weeks: "so you think you know better than the government?"

Yeah I think I do

 

[BlueRoads]

According to this, Germany still has a very low figure of recovered patients, which might suggest the disease is still at an early stage there (in terms of local transmission).

The low number of recoveries in G is also due to people only being declared recovered when they are absolutely without any traces of the virus, whereas in some other countries people are "recovered" once they leave a hospital.

This whole counting numbers thing is frustrating right now as there are such big differences in the amount of testing.
But maybe the numbers of South Korea are relatively accurate because they did a lot of testing and tracking and are not at the beginning of this: 9037 cases, 120 deaths.

 

[Sestriere]

According to this, Germany still has a very low figure of recovered patients, which might suggest the disease is still at an early stage there (in terms of local transmission).

Definitely on of the reasons. Most infections in Germany were reported during the last two weeks. On average it takes 2.5 to 3 weeks between showing the first symptoms and death. Basically the death count gives you an indication pf how many people were infected three weeks ago. So assuming that there is a relatively small time gap between showing symptoms and being tested (which with a test volume of 160,000 to 200,000 a week should be the case) I would expect the death toll to rise a lot during the next two weeks.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Gotta say that the Governments and the health experts have handled this pandemic in an appalling way - The BIGGEST risk was always asymptomatic carriers spreading the disease, so once you reach 100 infections ( because the true figure is 5 or 10 times higher ) then you lockdown for 2 to 4 weeks and combine this with more testing - Then rinse and repeat - Government's of the world have let down their citizens.

Agreed. Still doesn't look like this testing capacity bump is imminent. At least not to the degree that would be needed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1242478463249870849

View: https://twitter.com/maggiekb1/status/1242478463249870849

 

[yaco]

Yeah Germany are obviously catching them earlier which might explain a large part of the difference.

It's my favorite argument of the last few weeks: "so you think you know better than the government?"

Yeah I think I do

When you have a virus that can be transmitted by asymptomatic people then you have to be on the front foot - And these Governments/Health experts have changed their strategies on more than one occasion - Enough said.

 

[GVFTA]

Small businesses here in Colorado are already getting relief. Haven't heard if money has arrived, but I do know loans have been approved. If you listen to the MSM you wouldn't believe it, but it started last week. Has anybody heard any good news along these lines in other states?

 

[aphronesis]

At the City level, Mayor Bill de Blasio has also announced two relief efforts -- a grant program for very small businesses and a zero-interest loan program. The Mayor said Friday the grant program would deposit funds to businesses Monday, while the loan program would deposit funds by the end of the week.

Here are the bills you need to pay — and those you don't — during the lockdown

This story has been updated. As New York shuts down in an effort to combat the spread of coronavirus, the State has waived payments and fees on some of the bills businesses see come due each month. Meanwhile businesses across the city and state are scrambling to gauge what…

www.crainsnewyork.com

 

[GVFTA]

At the City level, Mayor Bill de Blasio has also announced two relief efforts -- a grant program for very small businesses and a zero-interest loan program. The Mayor said Friday the grant program would deposit funds to businesses Monday, while the loan program would deposit funds by the end of the week.

Here are the bills you need to pay — and those you don't — during the lockdown

This story has been updated. As New York shuts down in an effort to combat the spread of coronavirus, the State has waived payments and fees on some of the bills businesses see come due each month. Meanwhile businesses across the city and state are scrambling to gauge what…

www.crainsnewyork.com

That's great to hear.

The loans I was referring to are actually Federal. Part of the 1st relief package signed in DC.

Feds approve Colorado small business disaster loan program ask; Denver announces initial biz relief

The state of Colorado and city of Denver both on Thursday announced initial economic relief packages to try to help businesses and workers affected by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

www.thedenverchannel.com

 

[search]

The low number of recoveries in G is also due to people only being declared recovered when they are absolutely without any traces of the virus, whereas in some other countries people are "recovered" once they leave a hospital.

most people are not declared as "recovered" in Germany as it's not allowed to forward these information for reasons of data privacy. Some districts still put them out themself, but obviously the total number is not accurate at all then.

The heavily affected Kreis Heinsberg for example does publish all numbers every day. So far they had 1043 infected of which 247 recovered

 

[aphronesis]

That's great to hear.

The loans I was referring to are actually Federal. Part of the 1st relief package signed in DC.

Feds approve Colorado small business disaster loan program ask; Denver announces initial biz relief

The state of Colorado and city of Denver both on Thursday announced initial economic relief packages to try to help businesses and workers affected by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.

www.thedenverchannel.com

Looks as if they could be of a piece. Details are allover the place right now

List Of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Small Business Loan And Grant Programs

Businesses have a growing number of resources and relief programs to turn to during the coronavirus crisis, including emergency funding, protection from eviction and business loan deferment.

www.google.com

 

[jmdirt]

Yes, I've been trying to figure out how to criticize the influencers who are discussing "the old people are willing to die to save the economy for their grand kids" stupidity without having a political component (especially since that is why they are putting it out there).

I'm neither the old nor the grand kid (I'm 52), but when I put myself in either of their shoes the answer is NO! 20-30 years ago I would not be willing to let my grandparents die to save the economy. In another 20-30 years I will not be willing to die to save the economy for the younger gens. We (USA) are less than a month into this and already the influencers are bailing! ...and I have to stop!

EDIT: one predominant influencer/deciderer said: "there is no functioning economy unless we control the virus". He gets information from, "healthcare professionals like Dr. Fauci not pltcl punditry". Several others with power seem to agree...I'm at least somewhat relieved.

 

[sir fly]

Speaking about the economy... is the continuity the only way?

 

[djpbaltimore]

This thread sent chills down my spine. This is why almost all countries have come to realize that lockdowns are the only sustainable policy.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1242302400762908685

View: https://twitter.com/Craig_A_Spencer/status/1242302400762908685

 

[nevele neves]

I thought about posting the clip but I decided it was a bit too political. But the way certain influencers are floating the 'business as usual but the elderly and infirm in isolation' as a compromise solution really is madness. People really need to think hard about how re-opening the country occurs. Hong Kong and Singapore started opening up and were forced to retreat when cases started to creep up again.

Japan so far has been able to continue with working. They are doing some of the obvious cancellations such as sporting events and concerts. They seemed to be able to handle it and the density of their population is much more than what is in the USA.
Also looking at your southern states there seems to be less wide spreading as happening in the colder climate of the usa.

 

[jmdirt]

Japan so far has been able to continue with working. They are doing some of the obvious cancellations such as sporting events and concerts. They seemed to be able to handle it and the density of their population is much more than what is in the USA.
Also looking at your southern states there seems to be less wide spreading as happening in the colder climate of the usa.

...but the deciderers/influencers aren't framing it that way, they are essentially saying "its worth sacrificing old and/or sick people so that we can save the economy".

 

[djpbaltimore]

Japan so far has been able to continue with working. They are doing some of the obvious cancellations such as sporting events and concerts. They seemed to be able to handle it and the density of their population is much more than what is in the USA.
Also looking at your southern states there seems to be less wide spreading as happening in the colder climate of the usa.

Has anything we have done up to this point suggest that we will be like Japan?

Keep an eye on New Orleans. That has all the makings of another disaster. Their R naught might be lower than other places, but their problems are starting to become apparent.

Hopkins are now updating by county in the USA if people want to get the most local information.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

 

[movingtarget]

...but the deciderers/influencers aren't framing it that way, they are essentially saying "its worth sacrificing old and/or sick people so that we can save the economy".

It seems they also wanted the Olympics to go ahead as well............

 

[Koronin]

...but the deciderers/influencers aren't framing it that way, they are essentially saying "its worth sacrificing old and/or sick people so that we can save the economy".

Still not a enough tests in some of the southern states. Also as a note Charlotte Mecklenburgh county is going into a "stay at home" order starting at 8am Thursday. Wake county has more restrictions than the NC Gov has put into place and many are expecting Wake and possibly Durham counties to go into a "stay at home" order by early next week. Wake county is the where Raleigh is located.