Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Koronin]

Interesting IMO:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/scient...el-coronavirus-vaccine-60-minutes-2020-03-22/

Interesting article. Although the fact it had already started testing for ebola, some of the preliminary testing would have already been done (like side effects). This is the one there have been reports from Australia and France of it working on severe patients. I keep reading they will have results in April.

 

[8472]

China has published a handbook detailing their experience in dealing with the virus, including possible drug treatments and therapy. Some sections are worth a good read, especially for medical staff.

Global MediXchange for Combating COVID-19(GMCC)

Global MediXchange for Combating COVID-19 is a medical exchange program to promote valubale experience sharing and communication in combating the global outbreak of COVID-19.

covid-19.alibabacloud.com

 

[yaco]

It's pointless and irrelevant arguing about the origins of COVID 19, as this doesn't help us moving forward, and the actual origin is still being investigated by the authorities - I posted yesterday a timeline of events going back to November - There was no cover up as the relevant authorities chose to keep it secret ( which is common with these type of events ) BUT what caused distress, was a virus which is contagious when the person is asymptomatic, which to my knowledge has never previously occurred.

 

[aphronesis]

Weiterleitungshinweis

File this under social transformation

Opinion | Forget the Trump Administration. America Will Save America. (Published 2020)

The federal government bungled its response to the coronavirus. But leaders around the country give us reason to hope.

www.nytimes.com

 

[GVFTA]

This thread has become political over the weekend. Where are the mods?

 

[King Boonen]

This thread has become political over the weekend. Where are the mods?

Mod hat on:

Unsurprisingly, lots of people have lots of things to deal with at this time. We have pointed this out many, many times before but, if you have a problem with a post then you need to report it, not complain in the thread. We're not paid to do this, we all try our hardest to be around as much as we can, but we cannot read back through every post that has been made and actively moderate things. moderation is and, until it's a paid team, always will be mostly reactive. Even if they employ people, I would think this would remain the same.


As a general point, we take a dim view of people complaining in threads. It does nothing to advance the conversation and usually just leads to arguments. As such we usually view it as trolling.


We'll look back through the thread and assess what's been posted. Please report specific problem posts and do give details if it's not obvious as a stand-alone why it is against the rules.

Cheers,

KB.

 

[djpbaltimore]

With something as contagious, and an incubation period as long as the coronavirus, I doubt any country in the world would have had any luck in stopping this it from becoming a pandemic, with new estimates of the virus r0 being between 4.7-6.6, which is massive since the Spanish Flu and H1N1 only had r0 of approximately ~2 or less.

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R , was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and...

www.medrxiv.org

How fast do you think people can diagnose a novel outbreak when the symptoms are so similar to the flu? Now compare the actions China took compared to the actions of the US during the H1N1 outbreak in 2009. China locked down everything when there were only 600 confirmed cases (later estimated to be around 2500 cases). Whereas the US didn't lock down anything, pretty much didn't take any action and the president only declares a National Health Emergency ~7 months after the first cases were identified, which by then the CDC reports: "The CDC estimates that 22 million Americans have gotten the virus".

That is a dubious number. And it is not a new estimate as the paper dates back to February. The consensus is that the R naught is more like 2.3 or so. The confidence interval is probably +/- 1 depending on a whole host of factors.

It's pointless and irrelevant arguing about the origins of COVID 19, as this doesn't help us moving forward, and the actual origin is still being investigated by the authorities - I posted yesterday a timeline of events going back to November - There was no cover up as the relevant authorities chose to keep it secret ( which is common with these type of events ) BUT what caused distress, was a virus which is contagious when the person is asymptomatic, which to my knowledge has never previously occurred.

I agree that the origin is not too important at this point. It might be useful in the future when we need to improve our preparedness by seeing how we failed to contain this one.

Just for reference, there are a number of viruses that can have asymptomatic infections that lead to transmission. Herpes viruses, Epstein Barr virus, HIV (under certain conditions). Same is true with bacterial infections as evidenced by Chlamydia. These tend to be the more 'successful' pathogens at gaining widespread traction for obvious reasons. It might have been possible to stop COVID-19 if the actions were taken early on, but that was a tight window and once it broke geographical containment, I don't think stopping this was ever super realistic.

 

[King Boonen]

Mod hat on:


Ok, we've not read everything but we've read enough. There's several people who know well enough what the rules are. Any more political posts will result in a long isolation and some of the stuff posted already might earn one too.

Cheers,

KB.

 

[GVFTA]

Mod hat on:


Ok, we've not read everything but we've read enough. There's several people who know well enough what the rules are. Any more political posts will result in a long isolation and some of the stuff posted already might earn one too.

Cheers,

KB.

There has been a lot of great info posted in this thread. Especially for us non scientific folk. I hope those with real info that can be of use keep it up.

 

[aphronesis]

Regarding the dust-up at the start of the weekend over cycling and crashes under the lock-down, it appears that crashes are up relative to last year in NY, but: so is bike usage; motorist negligence is said to be the cause in the majority if not all cases (admittedly there are many rusty or fresh riders); the injuries are minor; and it was colder last year so ridership was down anyway.

On the other hand

Philly sees boom in cyclists, 471% increase on Kelly Drive Trail during coronavirus restrictions

Bicycle Coalition launches petition to shut down MLK Drive to create more space

www.phillyvoice.com

Per the Times op-ed I posted above indicating that this moment is a potential crucible for societal transformation through openness and cooperation.

 

[RedheadDane]

Regarding the dust-up at the start of the weekend over cycling and crashes under the lock-down, it appears that crashes are up relative to last year in NY, but: so is bike usage; motorist negligence is said to be the cause in the majority if not all cases (admittedly there are many rusty or fresh riders); the injuries are minor; and it was colder last year so ridership was down anyway.

It also doesn't help when motorists assault riders, as what happened with Vanhoucke, whose first name is not, in fact, a suggestion.

 

[aphronesis]

Stress and outbreaks like that have been noticeable the past few days. I think given the overall vulnerability rate that this remains a crisis of organization and priorities. The sooner more people accept that....

 

[djpbaltimore]

It boggles the mind, but momentum is growing to try some version of the 'herd immunity' strategy in the USA once our 15 day social distance campaign is up next week. A lot is hanging in the balance over the next couple of days. I don't think anybody knows how this will play out.

 

[jmdirt]

Regarding the dust-up at the start of the weekend over cycling and crashes under the lock-down, it appears that crashes are up relative to last year in NY, but: so is bike usage; motorist negligence is said to be the cause in the majority if not all cases (admittedly there are many rusty or fresh riders); the injuries are minor; and it was colder last year so ridership was down anyway.

On the other hand

Philly sees boom in cyclists, 471% increase on Kelly Drive Trail during coronavirus restrictions

Bicycle Coalition launches petition to shut down MLK Drive to create more space

www.phillyvoice.com

Per the Times op-ed I posted above indicating that this moment is a potential crucible for societal transformation through openness and cooperation.

Its not just the roads, the Boise foothills have been jammed full! Obviously all of the people who frequently use the trails are out (and our population has grown considerably in recent years), but since people aren't working, schools/stores/malls/restaurants are closed, playgrounds are closed. no sports or auto racing on TV, etc., people have decided to flock to the trails. There are a lot of people riding bikes that really weren't made for trails, but more dangerous is people who don't have the fitness or skill to ride off road. Even a lot of the people on foot are not physically prepared for the the huge increase in activity. Short term that makes the foothills more dangerous for everyone and creates the potential for medical issues. Long term it may encourage people to be more active and healthy.

 

[jmdirt]

It boggles the mind, but momentum is growing to try some version of the 'herd immunity' strategy in the USA once our 15 day social distance campaign is up next week. A lot is hanging in the balance over the next couple of days. I don't think anybody knows how this will play out.

Who is the momentum growing with? KB just warned us so I'll be careful here, but is it coming from the government (no discussion of politics, just asking for the source), the medical (disease specialists) community, media...? Honestly I haven't heard anyone say that they think its a good idea to try that yet. Really, people who haven't been following the recommendations are trying herd immunity already.

 

[aphronesis]

Certain executive elements are pushing for a full return to "normal" rather than a staggered or striated experimental approach. It's an all or nothing response to the unknown that some people have trouble getting over.

The Boise foothill situation is being handled here by more enforcement of social distancing and light rain/snow today. And not much opportunity for off roading if you don't know what you're doing. It would be good if people could get more physically fit without being a threat to themselves and others.

 

[Red Rick]

It boggles the mind, but momentum is growing to try some version of the 'herd immunity' strategy in the USA once our 15 day social distance campaign is up next week. A lot is hanging in the balance over the next couple of days. I don't think anybody knows how this will play out.

It herds my brain.

 

[GVFTA]

Who is the momentum growing with? KB just warned us so I'll be careful here, but is it coming from the government (no discussion of politics, just asking for the source), the medical (disease specialists) community, media...? Honestly I haven't heard anyone say that they think its a good idea to try that yet. Really, people who haven't been following the recommendations are trying herd immunity already.

I've read a few different places that the UK's delayed response to social distancing was a result of belief that herd immunity would work. If true, I guess we'll find out how that worked for them. If they move that way before another 30 days or so in the US, I for one won't be participating. My home is plenty comfy as long as I can get out and exercise by myself.

 

[Ranagazoo]

Cases and deaths in Italy down for the 2nd day straight

 

[Red Rick]

 

[Unchained]

I recognize the volatility of the internet exchange but..
Seeing cyclists get their butts kicked worldwide is sad..people are scared,confused and angry so someone spinning around sweaty may look like a logical place to shunt your Corona frustrations..ugly for sure..
Read a couple of accounts of people trying to make the most of downtime from work and school and big found family time.
Parks and recreation areas suddenly the go to for recreational activities.
Near me the San Diego county beaches and parks getting heavy traffic. Add a little mountain snow..and the last part of the wildflower bloom in Anza Borrego Park..awesome if you ever see it.
Also read about shopping and how chaotic pandemic shopping is for everyone it seems wo exception.

gotta wonder if we can't learn from a Mexico City model..licence plate numbers regulate where and when you can drive..odd numbers every other day..even numbers every other.
Maybe S Dakota car registration style..registration takes place by staggering everything using letters of the alphabet..
Maybe ABC last names get the run of rec areas and grocery stores..first day or 6 hour intervals..
Just some measure of organization so that cattle call style everything everywhere doesn't have people punching each other over eggs, parking or toilet paper or hand sanitizer.
The idea that everything will just work out or find it's own level is equal parts stupid and impossible given the lack of accurate unbiased information.
In the United States daily federal press conferences are burdened a pats on the back that take up valuable time that could be disseminating factual information.
If we are to do this for months, from the top down,worldwide information needs to be disseminated that bringing your children outside is not abuse and bad parenting. World leaders need to spread the message that surfing,hiking,riding your bike or going for a walk or run is not an act of contempt for public safety.
Letting citizens resolve these issues one on one on the roadside is going to overall have bad or even deadly outcomes.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Who is the momentum growing with? KB just warned us so I'll be careful here, but is it coming from the government (no discussion of politics, just asking for the source), the medical (disease specialists) community, media...? Honestly I haven't heard anyone say that they think its a good idea to try that yet. Really, people who haven't been following the recommendations are trying herd immunity already.

It isn't from the medical people. But with the lag of infections, 15 days really might not be enough to show great efficacy with their strategy. So, they might not have a big say in what the next policy is.

Larry Kudlow. "The cure can’t be worse than the disease and we will have to make some difficult tradeoffs." Add that to the groundswell of influencers who are talking about how it is important to send people back to work while proposing some kind of elderly quarantine and this sounds a lot like the 'herd immunity' strategy to me.

 

[GVFTA]

?

 

[postmanhat]

I've read a few different places that the UK's delayed response to social distancing was a result of belief that herd immunity would work. If true, I guess we'll find out how that worked for them. If they move that way before another 30 days or so in the US, I for one won't be participating. My home is plenty comfy as long as I can get out and exercise by myself.

Sort of. The UK's Chief Scientific Adviser mentioned herd immunity in an interview on the 13th, in conjunction with government's then policy of doing practically nothing. As you might imagine it wasn't a vote winner, and Britain has since been moving towards lockdown like everywhere else. Similar to what I've read aboutThe US, the level of testing here is pitiful

 

[Red Rick]

Sort of. The UK's Chief Scientific Adviser mentioned herd immunity in an interview on the 13th, in conjunction with government's then policy of doing practically nothing. As you might imagine it wasn't a vote winner, and Britain has since been moving towards lockdown like everywhere else. Similar to what I've read aboutThe US, the level of testing here is pitiful

From waht I understand Trump wants everyone back to work in a week?