Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[tobydawq]

influenza cases are plummeting. The fact that COVID-19 cases are not indicates that it will not be as seasonable as influenza. I have heard a rough estimate that R naught will decrease by about 0.5. Meaning that it will still be over 1 without severe mitigation. It will not burn itself out left to its own devices.

Well, the plummeting of influenza cases is practically axiomatic given the social distancing, the fact that it doesn't transmit from asymptomatic people and due to its shorter incubation period.

 

[jmdirt]

Well, the plummeting of influenza cases is practically axiomatic given the social distancing, the fact that it doesn't transmit from asymptomatic people and due to its shorter incubation period.

Without reading anything from 'health experts' I assume the the same...people aren't getting the flu because they aren't around other people (as much).

EDIT: Plus I wonder if there are fewer people getting flu tests?

 

[Koronin]

Without reading anything from 'health experts' I assume the the same...people aren't getting the flu because they aren't around other people (as much).

EDIT: Plus I wonder if there are fewer people getting flu tests?

Likely depends on what part of the country. This is the time of year the flu typically starts disappearing anywhere where I live.

 

[del1962]

Italy’s death rate dropped today after keeping going up and new cases rate down

 

[RedheadDane]

Italy’s death rate dropped today after keeping going up and new cases rate down

That is, quite possibly, the best news I've seen for quite some time!

 

[8472]

why did the communist government kick out the western reporters?

The WHO is on the payroll of China, that is obvious to the world. In fact just yesterday here in Argentina they had a special on the influence WHO is under from the communist government.

Japan has harsher words for WHO and China. Surprised the western media has not picked up on it. Also South Korea's government had similar opinions.

On Feb 3, the Wall Street Journal publishes article slandering “China is the real sick man of Asia” that is full of vulgar insults and racist sentiments. China demands an apology but is ignored and doesn’t take any action to correct its mistake, which leads to the expulsion of three Wall Street Journal journalists as retribution. Go read that article. It is no longer freedom of speech. It is so full of deep-seated racial discrimination and encouragement of racism that anyone from the WSJ should be deeply ashamed, defecating on the values of freedom and equality promoted by the US. Imagine if the reverse had happened or if this had been directed at another country, who wouldn’t demand an apology or demand retribution?

Bombardment of anti-China propaganda have meant that most have come to believe that it is not racist to talk about Asians. Let me point out that racism is not just discrimination, but discrimination from a position of power. A black slave cannot be racist against his white master no matter how much he hates him, because his individual 'prejudice' against the master does not alter the world and its system of prejudice. Racism issues from power, so viruses that originate from the US or western countries are NOT stigmatized as linked to white people or white culture (H1N1, Spanish Flu, measles, typhoid, etc) but viruses that originate from Africa or Asia are automatically racially stigmatized.

And later on March 2: In response, the United States has expelled nearly half the number of Chinese nationals allowed to work for their state-run media in the United States, and from all Chinese media outlets, a significantly greater number that the number the Chinese expelled. So yeah retribution is allowed, but only for the west.

 

[Jagartrott]

I just read that article. Apart from the title, what are you talking about? Where are all the vulgar insults?

 

[sir fly]

Shouldn't this thread be placed in the Clinic?

 

[Keram]

More than 12000 new cases in New York state. Is it even true? That is brutal. Did massive testing start recently or what?

 

[aphronesis]

Case count is up to 15,000 in NY now. Testing had been increased, but is now being restricted to minimize exposure and carried out with serious potential cases when a positive will change treatment.

 

[Koronin]

Italy’s death rate dropped today after keeping going up and new cases rate down

This is good news.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Well, the plummeting of influenza cases is practically axiomatic given the social distancing, the fact that it doesn't transmit from asymptomatic people and due to its shorter incubation period.

Should clarify my point that this decrease generally happens annually around this time of year. The stats really haven't caught up with the extensive social distancing campaigns that really have been going on in earnest for only about 2 weeks here.

 

[Sestriere]

Yesterday during the Protezione Civile press conference a journalist asked about the very low death count in Germany compared to other countries and they answered that in Germany instead of doing like the other countries that count everyone that die with coronavirus they count only who was healthy before being infected and so dies exclusively because of coronavirus, according to the ISS data only the 1,2% of the deaths in Italy are of people who were healthy before the infection so using that criterion the death count in Italy would be similar if not lower. Personally I was already thinking that Germany death count was very dubious compared to almost every other country but I still found that literally jaw dropping.

This conspiracy theory has been around for many weeks. It has been denied by RKI officials several times. A German death certificate includes the following:

-immediate cause of death:, e.g. severe pneumonia
-as a result of:, e.g. infection with Sars-CoV-2
-pre-existing conditions that contributed to the death:, e.g. diabetes, asthma, cardiac arhythmia...

Any death of a patient with corona infection will be added to the statistics regardless of pre-existing conditions. Quite baffling that someone would state something like that during an official press conference.

 

[Unchained]

We can all hope that China and Italy can be used for an anticipated outcome for the US were things peak quickly and begin stabilization.
Being a site that has a primary focus on bike racing, there are plenty of underlying racing basics that hold true for fighting the virus and doing some type of lose knit team work. First world be don't burn your matches!! Limited supplies and every expenditure of energy needs a purpose.. Calling something the China Virus, or telling people to take unproven deadly drug combinations,and trying to pinpoint patient zero and any realtime criticisms about the intent of other countries,citizens and motivation is a waste.
if masks are available..where? How many?
If you don't have the software horsepower federally to make straightforward websites,the expertise is available in the US.
if there are testing sites, by now locating one by using your zip code looks like a proven technique. If the government can't figure it out Grinder, Cycletrader and Grub hub can quickly flesh out how to get location based info using zip codes.
The federal government needs to start posting fact based data that can be accessed by concerned citizens vs bizarre inaccurate misinformation using a press conference format..
325 million people,not all w internet access a problem to solve later but the reliance on misinformed news conferences is dangerous to us all.
Yesterday's with explicit advise to eat drugs that cause death was a step too far.
US health care professionals have enough to worry about and combating officially announced overdose recipes should not be on anybody's to do list.
Where are the masks?
How many?
Where can you get tested?
Hours of operation.
Standard stuff.

 

[Koronin]

I heard part of the California Governor's press conference yesterday. He said that there companies that have manufacturing facilities in California that he has been in talks with and has had medical people in talks with in how to switch them over to making medical supplies. From what I gathered much of the manufacturing will be masks and smocks (I think they are called). Also read today that General Motors is officially partnering with the biggest US manufacturer of ventilators and helping to get production of those up along with using GM's shipping and logistics to get the ventilators to where they need to go. Also from the California Governor it sounded like Tesla is finally switching over to making ventilators or ventilator parts. In NY some of the high end fashion designers are putting their teams together to make masks and other medical items that can be sewn. Once all of this gets up and running I suspect the bigger issue over here is going to be beds and medical personnel more than items.

 

[Red Rick]

Probably need to look at data per region rather than the entire country at large.

 

[8472]

I just read that article. Apart from the title, what are you talking about? Where are all the vulgar insults?

If you don’t think there’s anything wrong or insulting about the article, then there’s no point discussing it further, is there. They took advantage and used the height of the outbreak to turn a medical emergency into a political issue, kicking them while they were down. Imagine what would have happened if the article was directed at Jews or Israel. They would be looking at far worse than a simple apology or a few journalists getting kicked out. For example, according to the Public Order Act of 1986, simply stirring up racial hatred, let alone the widespread publication and distribution carries with it a 7 year jail sentence for anti-Semitism.

 

[Merckx index]

On Feb 3, the Wall Street Journal publishes article slandering “China is the real sick man of Asia” that is full of vulgar insults and racist sentiments. China demands an apology but is ignored and doesn’t take any action to correct its mistake, which leads to the expulsion of three Wall Street Journal journalists as retribution. Go read that article. It is no longer freedom of speech. It is so full of deep-seated racial discrimination and encouragement of racism that anyone from the WSJ should be deeply ashamed, defecating on the values of freedom and equality promoted by the US. Imagine if the reverse had happened or if this had been directed at another country, who wouldn’t demand an apology or demand retribution?

Are you talking about the same article I read? I see absolutely nothing vulgar or racist in it, it's about the power of the Chinese economy, and how anything that impacts it will impact the rest of the world. The heart of the message, and the passage most critical of China, is this:

China’s financial markets are probably more dangerous in the long run than China’s wildlife markets. Given the accumulated costs of decades of state-driven lending, massive malfeasance by local officials in cahoots with local banks, a towering property bubble, and vast industrial overcapacity, China is as ripe as a country can be for a massive economic correction. Even a small initial shock could lead to a massive bonfire of the vanities as all the false values, inflated expectations and misallocated assets implode. If that comes, it is far from clear that China’s regulators and decision makers have the technical skills or the political authority to minimize the damage—especially since that would involve enormous losses to the wealth of the politically connected.

I'm not questioning there is racist sentiment against the Chinese in the U.S., but come on, there is nothing here that qualifies as that. You say:

They took advantage and used the height of the outbreak to turn a medical emergency into a political issue, kicking them while they were down.

So you're not allowed to criticize a country's economy when it's suffering an epidemic? Can you provide guidelines as to when it is and is not appropriate to voice such criticisms? If this article had been written before the outbreak of the virus, would it still be considered vulgar and racist?

Imagine what would have happened if the article was directed at Jews or Israel.

Any article critical of Israel--including one by one of its own citizens--always results in an uproar.

Try imagining what would happen if an article like that were directed against America. Pretty much nothing. I mean, only about 50-70% of the U.S. population would agree with it. Hello? How do you think Trump got elected? Where does Sanders's support come from? Most people would find those criticisms absurdly mild if they were directed vs. the U.S.

Are you aware at all of all the politicizing of the pandemic that's going on in the U.S. now? You may think it's not a good time to be doing that, but the point is, the kind of criticism directed against China in that article is a watered-down version of what America directs against itself, all the time. There is nothing vulgar or racist at all about that.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Two weeks in and the virus induced grocery shortages do not seem to be improving. I haven't seen paper products, water, breads, or pasta since the initial rush. But this evening there were also no red meat, cereal, or cow milk. I did get some poptarts, so that will keep me going for a few days.

 

[8472]

Are you talking about the same article I read? I see absolutely nothing vulgar or racist in it, it's about the power of the Chinese economy, and how anything that impacts it will impact the rest of the world. The heart of the message, and the passage most critical of China, is this:

I'm not questioning there is racist sentiment against the Chinese in the U.S., but come on, there is nothing here that qualifies as that. You say:

So you're not allowed to criticize a country's economy when it's suffering an epidemic? Can you provide guidelines as to when it is and is not appropriate to voice such criticisms? If this article had been written before the outbreak of the virus, would it still be considered vulgar and racist?

Any article critical of Israel--including one by one of its own citizens--always results in an uproar.

Try imagining what would happen if an article like that were directed against America. Pretty much nothing. I mean, only about 50-70% of the U.S. population would agree with it. Hello? How do you think Trump got elected? Where does Sanders's support come from? Most people would find those criticisms absurdly mild if they were directed vs. the U.S.

Are you aware at all of all the politicizing of the pandemic that's going on in the U.S. now? You may think it's not a good time to be doing that, but the point is, the kind of criticism directed against China in that article is a watered-down version of what America directs against itself, all the time. There is nothing vulgar or racist at all about that.

It's true that nothing would happen in the US, because bashing political opponents is accepted due to free speech. But racial discrimination is not only politically incorrect, it runs contrary to social morality and the universally accepted code of conduct. The authors of WSJ should know better when dealing with sensitive issues on other countries, especially with slanderous headlines labelling China as the real sick man of Asia, which will only encourage racism and incur repercussions against Chinese or other Asian ethnicities.

 

[nevele neves]

It's true that nothing would happen in the US, because bashing political opponents is accepted due to free speech. But racial discrimination is not only politically incorrect, it runs contrary to social morality and the universally accepted code of conduct. The authors of WSJ should know better when dealing with sensitive issues on other countries, especially with slanderous headlines labelling China as the real sick man of Asia, which will only encourage racism and incur repercussions against Chinese or other Asian ethnicities.

Japanese Encephalitis
MERS (Middle Eastern Respitory Syndrome)

all true and none racist.

The government of China is responsible for allowing the virus to spread into a pandemic. Nothing special about that except the communist government could have been more transparent early on and it would have saved lives.

 

[Merckx index]

It's true that nothing would happen in the US, because bashing political opponents is accepted due to free speech. But racial discrimination is not only politically incorrect, it runs contrary to social morality and the universally accepted code of conduct. The authors of WSJ should know better when dealing with sensitive issues on other countries, especially with slanderous headlines labelling China as the real sick man of Asia, which will only encourage racism and incur repercussions against Chinese or other Asian ethnicities.

You seem to be saying that any criticism of China is racially motivated. To repeat, there's not a shred of evidence of that in the WSJ article. It's not racist to criticize a nation's economic system, just because that nation is composed of a different race from that of the critic.

The media routinely criticize the off-field issues of pro athletes, some of whom happen to be black. A recent example is Antonio Brown, subject of several sexual harassment claims. Are the media racist for criticizing him?

I mean, I have no idea whatsoever what criticism you think can be directed against China that in your view is not racist. You seem to assume whenever someone says a bad word about another person or country, that's racially motivated. Quite honestly, you have brought the issue of racism into a discussion in which there initially wasn't any.

For the record, I don't think China is lying about its dramatic reduction of the virus spread. But even if i did think it was lying, that's not a racist sentiment. It's a notion borne of the fact that governments frequently lie, and particularly authoritarian ones. If someone wants to say, China always lies, I'm inclined not to agree totally, but I'm certainly not going to take that accusation as racially based. Many say much the same about Russia.

 

[8472]

Japanese Encephalitis
MERS (Middle Eastern Respitory Syndrome)

all true and none racist.

The government of China is responsible for allowing the virus to spread into a pandemic. Nothing special about that except the communist government could have been more transparent early on and it would have saved lives.

With something as contagious, and an incubation period as long as the coronavirus, I doubt any country in the world would have had any luck in stopping this it from becoming a pandemic, with new estimates of the virus r0 being between 4.7-6.6, which is massive since the Spanish Flu and H1N1 only had r0 of approximately ~2 or less.

The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R , was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and...

www.medrxiv.org

How fast do you think people can diagnose a novel outbreak when the symptoms are so similar to the flu? Now compare the actions China took compared to the actions of the US during the H1N1 outbreak in 2009. China locked down everything when there were only 600 confirmed cases (later estimated to be around 2500 cases). Whereas the US didn't lock down anything, pretty much didn't take any action and the president only declares a National Health Emergency ~7 months after the first cases were identified, which by then the CDC reports: "The CDC estimates that 22 million Americans have gotten the virus".

 

[jmdirt]

Interesting IMO:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/scient...el-coronavirus-vaccine-60-minutes-2020-03-22/

 

[8472]

You seem to be saying that any criticism of China is racially motivated. To repeat, there's not a shred of evidence of that in the WSJ article. It's not racist to criticize a nation's economic system, just because that nation is composed of a different race from that of the critic.

The media routinely criticize the off-field issues of pro athletes, some of whom happen to be black. A recent example is Antonio Brown, subject of several sexual harassment claims. Are the media racist for criticizing him?

I mean, I have no idea whatsoever what criticism you think can be directed against China that in your view is not racist. You seem to assume whenever someone says a bad word about another person or country, that's racially motivated. Quite honestly, you have brought the issue of racism into a discussion in which there initially wasn't any.

For the record, I don't think China is lying about its dramatic reduction of the virus spread. But even if i did think it was lying, that's not a racist sentiment. It's a notion borne of the fact that governments frequently lie, and particularly authoritarian ones. If someone wants to say, China always lies, I'm inclined not to agree totally, but I'm certainly not going to take that accusation as racially based. Many say much the same about Russia.

You're entitled to your opinion and I won't say I disagree entirely. But the recent escalation of hate crimes against Asians due to the coronavirus has only just begun, and the actions and words of WSJ and other media/leaders are only promoting xenophobia, and this is definitely wrong.