Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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I can only speak from my perspective,as a non professional military strategist, and also as someone w a limited knowledge of epidemiology or prevention or treatment of world wide contagious diseases.
And
I could never in any scenario,at this early or late stage in the American response to the current rampant pandemic were any person from the My Pillow company could be called on to address the world about the U.S. response to the death and destruction we are experiencing
 

Chris Gadsden

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Oct 28, 2019
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You are not paying attention.

The first case of C19 showed up in Washington State on Jan 20, 2020. The C19 task force was begun on January 29, 2020. On January 31 POTUS declared a National Health Emergency and shut down travel from China. On February 26, 2020 VP Pence was put in charge of the task force and have been giving daily pressers since. On the day POTUS put VP in charge he's touted the public-private partnership and has touted dozens of companies before the CEO of My Pillow spoke yesterday.

I'm alternately amused and concerned that Mr. Lindell has upset so many. This guy has essentially shut down his business to ramp up production of masks that he's delivering to area hospitals right now to the tune of (by the end of the week) 50,000 per day. Lots of CEO's have been featured during these pressers.. so why does My Pillow have you (and sooo many others) upset?
 
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It means that if countries re-open their international borders to encourage commerce etc, then only this cohort can travel internationally until a vaccine is available - You can't close down countries for 12 months +.

Edit ; Seems like the experts share my thoughts about an Immunity Passport.


Er yes. But I was talking domestically, specifically recreation, and how it will be applied to that.

But on that issue. Do you think international business travel is one of those things that aren't coming back, post Covid-19? At least, not in anything like the volume it was before.
 
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You’re in the UK I believe? I think it could work a bit differently there. More easily in some regards; more exclusionary in others.

In the US it seems that there would be so many factors in play: states against the feds; cities against states; businesses taking it on themselves which would threaten to create new elites/forms of exclusions; civil rights activists working with and against the concerns of those looking to redress economic inequality. Etc.
 
Er yes. But I was talking domestically, specifically recreation, and how it will be applied to that.

But on that issue. Do you think international business travel is one of those things that isn't coming back post Covid-19? At least, not in anything like the volume it was before.

One thing I feel will come out of all this is that companies will realise how little business trips, international or otherwise, are actually needed. I suspect businesses all over the world are realising how much quicker and more efficient meetings and conferences are when done online.

With technology and communications as they are these days, the majority of businesses trips are little more than an excuse for a big pissup.
 
One thing I feel will come out of all this is that companies will realise how little business trips, international or otherwise, are actually needed. I suspect businesses all over the world are realising how much quicker and more efficient meetings and conferences are when done online.

With technology and communications as they are these days, the majority of businesses trips are little more than an excuse for a big pissup.
I do find it 'interesting' that communication and certain tech companies travel so much. They develop products for other people to communicate more effectively/efficiently yet they fly to other states/countries and meet in a room to talk about what they are developing. One 'arm' of the company who signs my checks travels to Asia regularly and most of them will tell you that a lot of what they do can be done from here, but 'its always been done this way" prevails. You might be correct though, that this will be the event that changes that way of thinking.
 
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Regarding those 21 million cell phone accounts cancelled. This is a good example of how conspiracy theorists use loose thinking to support some conclusion. No one, not even the most rabid China hater, believes that 21 million Chinese died from C19. One article i read suggested it could be one or two million, which is still a huge stretch. But let's say it were one million, that leaves 20 million cancelled accounts unexplained, and if you can find an explanation for those, why can't you find an explanation for 21 million?

In other words, the 21 million cancelled accounts don't provide any evidence at all for unreported deaths. There might be other evidence, but the cell phone theory is a total non-starter.

When there's a lack of doctors and equipment, why use resources on the dead instead of the living with autopsies and posthumous tests?

Yes, but when people die at home, their survivors surely can report the death to some central registry, with some description of the symptoms. That might not be enough to conclude for certainty in all cases that the cause was COVID, but at the least one would get a range.

One thing I feel will come out of all this is that companies will realise how little business trips, international or otherwise, are actually needed. I suspect businesses all over the world are realising how much quicker and more efficient meetings and conferences are when done online.

And this applies to education, too. Do students really need to attend a lecture when they can watch/hear the video? There are always advantages in experiencing something live, but the question is whether those advantages outweigh the possible savings in time, money and energy by doing it online.

But better not get me started, or soon I will be questioning why we need huge stadiums, usually paid for by the taxpayers, to host sporting events.

A comment on that excellent link on counting the virus within the body that Aphro posted upthread.
There's one important point the author didn’t make. In the beginning of the article, he notes how viral spread in a population can be represented by a simple simulation, where red dots, infected individuals, move about randomly, and contact and infect the gray dots. As time goes on, more and more gray dots are converted into red ones.

The point I want to emphasize here is that you can describe movement of viral particles in the body in much the same way. The superficial assumption is that once viral particles get into the body, the person becomes infected, but the reality is probably more complicated. In the first place, multiple particles are required for infection. A single viral particle isn’t going to infect anyone. A few dozen might, depending on the virus, but this is a random process. For example, two individuals might be exposed to an identical amount of viral particles—I mean the virus actually enters their nasal passages--yet one becomes infected and the other doesn’t. Or an individual might be exposed to an identical amount of virus on two different occasions, yet the first time there is no infection, while the second time there is. And just to be clear, when I say that in one situation, there is no infection, I don’t mean the individual is infected but asymptomatic. I mean s/he is not infected at all—would test negative for either the virus or for antibodies to it.

Why? Infection begins when viral particles attach to cells in the body, enter it, and start replicating themselves using the cell’s own synthetic processes. Whether a virus contacts a cell at all is somewhat random; the law of mass action is in play, governed by statistical probabilities. Think of the particles diffusing through the air; at some point they may or may not bump into one of the target cells. If they don’t, they will eventually get flushed out of the system; if they do, they may or may not attach or bind to the cell.

If you have a certain concentration of particles, you can in theory use an equation to calculate, on average, how many of them will contact and bind to cells. It's quite analogous to the equation pharmacologists use to calculate the relationship between dose of a drug and response to it. But like any statistical average, this number is fuzzy. Maybe one hundred particles would be enough sometimes, but by chance it might not be other times, whereas eighty might be enough some other time.

This undoubtedly comes into play during viral spread in a population. Why do some people become infected while others, who may be moving about in pretty much the same environment, don’t? There will be differences in amounts of viral particles exposed to, but also, if these amounts are relatively low, in whether or not they trigger an infection.
 
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Here's the first real report out of California that I've found. It's mostly about the Bay area, but it does talk about California as a whole. It appears that California is on a trajectory more like South Korea with the precautions they've taken so far.

 
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And this applies to education, too. Do students really need to attend a lecture when they can watch/hear the video? There are always advantages in experiencing something live, but the question is whether those advantages outweigh the possible savings in time, money and energy by doing it online.
There's the potential for it to apply to education, but at the moment it doesn't and it shouldn't. Not until a free computer, tablet or smartphone plus a good internet connection are included in the deal. Lots of underprivileged folks do not have access to these.
 
Updated information on the mortality rate, and how and why it's so much higher for older people. The new buzzword is immunosenescence.

Researchers on Monday announced the most comprehensive estimates to date of elderly people’s elevated risk of serious illness and death from the new coronavirus: Covid-19 kills an estimated 13.4% of patients 80 and older, compared to 1.25% of those in their 50s and 0.3% of those in their 40s.

The sharpest divide came at age 70. Although 4% of patients in their 60s died, more than twice that, or 8.6%, of those in their 70s did, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London and his colleagues estimated in their paper, published in Lancet Infectious Diseases.

The new calculations, based on 70,117 laboratory-confirmed and clinically-diagnosed cases in mainland China and 689 cases among people evacuated from Wuhan on repatriation flights, allowed the Imperial College researchers to estimate the overall death rate from the disease. In the outbreak’s early weeks that was thought to be as high as 3% to 8%. Instead, the fatality rate among people with confirmed disease is 1.38%, they concluded.

That supports an estimate by researchers at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health earlier this month of a 1.4% fatality rate in confirmed cases.

The British group said the fatality rate among all of those infected with the new coronavirus — including those who don’t have symptoms — is 0.66%.
By comparison, that is more than 30 times greater than the death rate for the H1N1 influenza, the cause of a 2009 pandemic, which was 0.02%.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/30/what-explains-coronavirus-lethality-for-elderly/

Note that if you put the numbers together, you get an estimate of about 50% of infected people are asymptomatic. That's in close agreement with data from the Diamond Princess and Iceland (maybe they used those data to come up with their value, I don't know. But in any case, it's appearing increasingly likely. that about half of all infected people are asymptomatic. Not 80-90%., and not 5-10%, either.)

The numbers don't actually differ that much from those published more than a month ago, based on I think much of the same Chinese sample. But there is a good discussion here of how the immune system weakens with age.

Also, why is Italy's death rate so high?

38% of Italy’s Covid-19 cases are in people 70 and older, compared to 12% in China.
 
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And this applies to education, too. Do students really need to attend a lecture when they can watch/hear the video? There are always advantages in experiencing something live, but the question is whether those advantages outweigh the possible savings in time, money and energy by doing it online.
I assume that you are referring to higher Ed/College. In that case, I agree...sort of. This wasn't an option for my undergrad studies, but I completed some of my MS work via a variety of 'distance learning'. Lectures could surely be streamed, but while several professors shared a vast amount of knowledge with me, the most valuable learning was from my peers/colleges/cohorts. All of my PhD was on the www but my main focus was jumping though hoops for 'the man' so who cares if I learned anything (other than hoop jumping)! :laughing: K-8 will never happen if for no other reason because its day care. Plus, the littles tend not to learn well on their own. 9-12 is still a tough road (virtual academies, eh), but many 'traditional/physical' schools use www for some things, but the kids are still at a school location.
 
K-8 will never happen if for no other reason because its day care. Plus, the littles tend not to learn well on their own. 9-12 is still a tough road (virtual academies, eh), but many 'traditional/physical' schools use www for some things, but the kids are still at a school location.

I agree about the younger ages. It's not only day care--parents would riot in the streets--but this is where kids learn social skills, and in particular, that other people have different and valuable perspectives.
 
Er yes. But I was talking domestically, specifically recreation, and how it will be applied to that.

But on that issue. Do you think international business travel is one of those things that aren't coming back, post Covid-19? At least, not in anything like the volume it was before.

I suspect some international business travel was a luxury so will be cut back by companies - Apparently, Australia is planning on continuing to close their borders until a vaccine is developed and then you must provide a copy in your passport - Think Australia is behind the curve - They should be using the immunity passport for visitors whenever this time comes - You keep your borders closed for 12 months ( other countries do the same ) then you are heading for a depression.
 
I want to thank Merckx Index for eloquently and correctly explaining how people catch COVID 19 - It's hard to convince some that if I sprinkled the virus on a table, had ten people touch the virus, that probably only 6 or 7 will be infected.
 
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I was listening to the Radio earlier. There was an ex footballer on from the UK. Carlton Palmer. He now lives and works in China and was perplexed at how lax he thought the UK government were. He said that the Virus started back in China in early November. apparently he has to send his temperature twice a day via an app to the local authority. He also said Shanghi is hopefully opening back up at the mid to end of April. There apparently has only been one case in the last month or so there and that was someone coming into Shanghi and they were immediately put into isolation.
 
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Are there new numbers out of Italy that are showing any signs that Italy has finally hit it's peak?

Based on doubling time, the progression has slowed down significantly over the past few days. Just a rough calculation based on worldometrics data:
Italy prior to lockdown, Doubling time = 3.3 days.
For the week of March 24th, Doubling time = 4.4 days.
For the past week of March 31, Doubling time = 9.5 days.
For the past 4 days, Doubling time = 12.8 days.

Great news if this trend continues. Just as a comparison, here's the doubling time comparison of some other countries (for the past week of March 31st):
USA = 2.32 days
Portugal = 2.59 days
UK = 2.63 days
Canada = 2.66 days
Belgium = 2.77 days
France = 3.96 days
Spain = 4.13 days
Netherlands = 4.17 days
Germany = 4.46 days
Australia = 4.93 days
Switzerland = 7.46 days
Italy = 9.51 days
 
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Reported numbers are wishful thinking. All of them. Intentional or not.
That's inevitable, but they're still useful and a valid tool to identify trends as long as they're gathered in a consistent manner.
What I find surprising in the story you linked is that they actually had the means to test extensively at that facility. It would be interesting to know how many of those positive cases won't develop any symptoms.
 
I agree with your main point, but I also think the consistency required hasn't really been there for the most part. Especially not to compare different locations. Italy seemed to have a decrease in incidence while increasing the number of tests recently, so some broader trends probably can be inferred from certain data like that. I did not mean to minimize that kind of analysis. The story this week about US case numbers leveling off has been associated with a leveling off of testing. Hospitalizations are probably the most accurate barometer for internal comparisons (i.e. is it going up or down in the same city).

I also think it is time to devote some of the test capacity here to random sampling. Both PCR and antibody.
 
Lots of people making masks. Maybe they should all be invited. Digitally of course. Seems a waste of time that could have been used to spread factual and useful information. Pillow market is currently declining; may as well make masks. No heroism there.

Back in reality and to add onto MI’s post: part of what makes this virus a crisis of governance and systemic risk management is the fact that it appears to have an evolved and more aggressive means of binding to new hosts. This is part of what makes cases amplify and multiply in contained social/public/health settings. That along with the fact that people seem to start shedding while still a or (especially) presymptomatic. It’s still early yet to know lethality rates, but even adjusting for China withholding asymptomatic reports from their representative numbers, some estimates and studies have it going back below 1%
 
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