Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[MartinGT]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654

This is a good read

 

[aphronesis]

Right, that’s part of why socio and anthropological questions have to be factored rather than just pitting or negotiating a calculus of economics against science with govts. adjudicating. The arrogance of the former is part of what’s given way to a lot of subsequent hysteria

 

[djpbaltimore]

One of the things I have been curious about is why the percent positive of those tested recently in NY and NJ has been around 50% even though they have basically triaged the system to only test people they 'know' have COVID-19. This story might shed more light on that observation. It could be something inherent to the test itself, but could also be a testing apparatus that is stretched way beyond its workable capacity. "Sink tests" in practice if not intent.

False-negative test results — tests that indicate you are not infected, when you are — seem to be uncomfortably common. Increasingly, and disturbingly, I hear a growing number of anecdotal stories from my fellow doctors of patients testing negative for coronavirus and then testing positive — or people who are almost certainly infected who are testing negative.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245396870312198144

View: https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/1245396870312198144

 

[Nomad]

Chinese Cell phone Users:
November 2019 data: 1,600,957,000 users (1.6 billion)
March 2020 data: 1,579,927,000 users (1.57 billion)
Net Drop: 21.03 million

So from that data you think it's concrete proof that 21 million people have died. Right. Now consider:

China Population: 1,436,768,070 (1.43 billion) as of Jan 2020.

So even if every single person has a cell phone (even those in rural areas and all kids/infants), that's still 150 million more than the total population. The data actually represents the number of subscriptions cancelled due to the lockdown from migrant workers who cancelled their work region mobile subscriptions since they were quarantined at home, because the virus prevented them from returning to their workplace. So stop spreading bs conspiracy theories.

Fact Check: Did 21 million cell phones really disappear in China?

Did 21 million cell phones really disappear in China? Is China hiding actual coronavirus figures in their country? Check the facts regarding the viral rumour.

www.republicworld.com

However, the death rate is definitely much higher than the reported figures since most people who die in their homes will not be tested before being cremated or buried, but this is true for all countries, I would imagine about 3-5x higher, but throwing around insane figures like 21 million is just plain irresponsible.

It's definitely a lot higher:

Weiterleitungshinweis

I wouldn't doubt if they had millions of cases and tens of thousand of deaths with a high percentage of those deaths being the elderly and those with underlying medical conditions (not like we haven't seen this pattern in the U.S. and other nations). I bet their death rate is also much lower than what they reported.

My theory is that the Chinese government wanted to show the world how effective their "Communist-style" lockdown was. They concealed their true statistics fooling other countries that they knew what they're doing. This is a nation that's hosting the 2022 Beijing Olympics where they'll be center stage.

Big psy ops on the world - noticed how some of the G-7 countries ranted and raved how the China "hammer" worked so effectively (Dr. Fauci even seemed to focus a lot on the Chinese data - couldn't he with all his expertise smell a rat? Lol). Heck, practically both Italy & Spain are virtually doing Chinese-style lockdowns and people are still dying.

Here in the U.S. it's time for this nonsense to stop. The elderly with underlying medical conditions, i.e. "the most vulnerable in society" - the ones with the highest risk of dying or developing complications, should be in a "Stay at Home" lockdown. The rest of us can get tested, wear masks and get on with our lives & livelihood!

 

[Nomad]

Updated information on the mortality rate, and how and why it's so much higher for older people. The new buzzword is immunosenescence.





https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/30/what-explains-coronavirus-lethality-for-elderly/

Note that if you put the numbers together, you get an estimate of about 50% of infected people are asymptomatic. That's in close agreement with data from the Diamond Princess and Iceland (maybe they used those data to come up with their value, I don't know. But in any case, it's appearing increasingly likely. that about half of all infected people are asymptomatic. Not 80-90%., and not 5-10%, either.)

The numbers don't actually differ that much from those published more than a month ago, based on I think much of the same Chinese sample. But there is a good discussion here of how the immune system weakens with age.

Also, why is Italy's death rate so high?

More on Italy with their high elderly population:

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[djpbaltimore]

The elderly with underlying medical conditions, i.e. "the most vulnerable in society" - the ones with the highest risk of dying or developing complications, should be in a "Stay at Home" lockdown. The rest of us can get tested, wear masks and get on with our lives & livelihood!

With all due respect, that is not even remotely possible here. Roughly speaking, we just passed the 1 million test mark earlier this week. The mobile fraction would be 250 million people or so?

 

[8472]

My theory is that the Chinese government wanted to show the world how effective their "Communist-style" lockdown was. They concealed their true statistics fooling other countries that they knew what they're doing. This is a nation that's hosting the 2022 Beijing Olympics where they'll be center stage.

How's that any different to countries that only provide testing for those who display strong/undeniable symptoms of COVID-19, but will not test anyone with only mild symptoms, let alone asymptomatics or close contacts. You know like every country in the world basically. Regarding deaths, the main reason for understated deaths would be the lack of posthumous testing which will occur in any place where the medical system becomes overwhelmed. For example, the mayor of Bergamo, Giorgio Gori already publicly acknowledged that the vast majority of people who die in their homes are not tested and therefore not counted towards both cases and death statistics.

Gori: “A Bergamo si muore a casa, un terzo della popolazione potenzialmente contagiato dal Covid”

Il bilancio ufficiale dei contagiati e delle vittime del coronavirus a Bergamo sarebbe molto inferiore ai numeri reali

www.fanpage.it

And here's another one, a 17 year old who had a confirmed positive COVID-19 test but later died, but was then removed from the death tally.

Mayor: Teenager with COVID-19 died after initially being denied care over insurance

A 17-year-old Southern California boy who tested positive for coronavirus and died this...

www.sfgate.com

Face it, all numbers are much lower than expected, it's not just a China problem. All governments around the world will be vastly underreporting cases, whether intentionally, or because it's pretty much impossible to accurately report on the exact number of cases.

 

[aphronesis]

Weiterleitungshinweis

 

[MartinGT]

https://9now.nine.com.au/60-minutes...94SAw4WYb_JkFHKny9EbBDfiggO8_ONBjX8bxzk1ndgB8

The answer would be yes.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Some more research into the fatality rates. This group introduces a metric called the infection fatality rate in an attempt to incorporate the less severe cases into the numbers that we have been commonly using. I have seen this number on social media, but I had not seen where it came from until now. This is more in line with what is seen in Iceland where they seem to be doing the best job at catching the milder cases with their testing.

Adjusting for demography and under-ascertainment, we estimate an infection fatality ratio of 0·66% (95% CrI 0·39–1·33).

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S1473-3099(20)30243-7

 

[Koronin]

Here's an interesting group working on a a vaccine.

British American Tobacco working on plant-based coronavirus vaccine

Cigarette maker says tobacco plants offer potential for faster and safer drug development

www.theguardian.com

 

[Jagartrott]

Face it, all numbers are much lower than expected, it's not just a China problem. All governments around the world will be vastly underreporting cases, whether intentionally, or because it's pretty much impossible to accurately report on the exact number of cases.

In Belgium, older people that currently die in a care home and for whom the cause of death cannot be established, are counted as corona-deaths.

Anyway, the broader question is: does China know better and have they actively hidden cases and deaths (and do they keep doing so now)?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Fauci poured cold water about widespread antibody testing in the press briefing. Said it was not a priority.

Guess that will be a job for the rest of the world.

 

[Koronin]

Fauci poured cold water about widespread antibody testing in the press briefing. Said it was not a priority.

Guess that will be a job for the rest of the world.

Sigh. We need massive antibody testing to get a better idea of who actually had it.


For anyone who reads Spanish (or wants to use google translate) here's an article about the virus in Spain. It has charts and graphs with projections on it.

¿Cuándo dejará de fallecer gente por coronavirus en España?

Las predicciones de coronavirus apuntan a que dentreo de 2 o 3 días la curva comenzará a descender hasta dejar de sumar nuevos contagios.

www.consalud.es

 

[movingtarget]

Hopefully China is serious about closing the live animal markets permanently. Wild animals that is and often illegally obtained exotic animals. Wildlife organizations are applauding the news and not only for their own aims. The illegal animal trade often leads back to China for whatever reasons, hopefully other countries follow suit. Now it seems that cats can spread Coronavirus at least to each other :

Cats can infect each other with coronavirus, Chinese study finds

Feline transmission to humans not shown but infected pet owners warned to be careful

www.theguardian.com

 

[Merckx index]

Iceland continues to stand out--only two deaths in more than 1200 cases. Most of the cases are still open, but there have been 236 recoveries, and even using that for the mortality rate, which should give a gross overestimate, one gets a mortality rate of < 1.0%. A good part of the explanation is that they're testing everyone they can, so they're picking up a lot of asymptomatics. Even given that, the numbers are astonishing. An overall healthier population? Maybe older people are self-isolating better than in other parts of the world?

 

[Cookster15]

Just read this in Bloomberg finance....

“China is not the only country with suspect public reporting on coronavirus.
Western officials have pointed to Iran, Russia, Indonesia and especially North Korea, which has not reported a single case of the disease, as probable under-counts”

But with possible exception of Indonesia what they all have in common is they are not free democracies.

 

[aphronesis]

ruh roh

Are Hospitals Seeing A Surge Of Coronavirus Patients? Some Officials Aren't Saying

With a lack of tests, epidemiologists say the next best way to monitor the pandemic is by tracking hospitalizations. But hotspots like California and Washington are releasing little information.

www.npr.org

 

[yaco]

Guangdong today has issued an edict banning the catching and selling of wild animals - Recently,Beijing did the same, though getting people to follow the rules in the provinces has always been tricky for Chinese authorities.

That Nine MSM report detailing timelines is very much what I posted a while ago - There was a period of inertia for a 10 to 14 day period over XMAS/New Year when Chinese authorities dithered - The WHO and Government's knew about the COVID 19 virus before XMAS but chose to keep it confidential.

 

[Cookster15]

There was a period of inertia for a 10 to 14 day period over XMAS/New Year when Chinese authorities dithered - The WHO and Government's knew about the COVID 19 virus before XMAS but chose to keep it confidential.

And it is the period of inertia why I don't believe China has stopped the spread of the virus in its tracks. It had already spread way beyond Wuhan by the time they started the crackdown.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Had to spend a while clearing up posts in here.

Please keep it civil, we are all facing uncertain times at the moment, but keep to the rules, please.

Also there have been a couple of posts with political implications, these are against the rules and will result in further action.

Thank you.

 

[Merckx index]

WTF? Fauci now has bodyguards because of threats to his life. Is there no end to the lunatics out there?

 

[Jagartrott]

Iceland continues to stand out--only two deaths in more than 1200 cases. Most of the cases are still open, but there have been 236 recoveries, and even using that for the mortality rate, which should give a gross overestimate, one gets a mortality rate of < 1.0%. A good part of the explanation is that they're testing everyone they can, so they're picking up a lot of asymptomatics. Even given that, the numbers are astonishing. An overall healthier population? Maybe older people are self-isolating better than in other parts of the world?

Very widespread testing is indeed the key here I think. In other countries, they're focusing on testing the people arriving at hospitals, so the comparison is hard to make. Perhaps better with S-Korea.

I've been to Iceland, and I saw quite a bit of overweight people (average BMI is 25.9), so I don't think the low mortality is related to that. Also, both Italy and Spain have a higher life expectancy. Maybe the very good air quality plays a role, and the relatively low smoking rate?

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Surely population density will play a role there as well? Even in Reykjavík, the population is more spread out than in most capital cities, and definitely all of them in Europe except for maybe somewhere like Vaduz.

 

[BlueRoads]

I heard today that in German hospitals even in palliative care units people are only allowed one visitor per day for one hour. I don't know if that concerns all parts of Germany. So lots of people, if Corona- infected or not, will die alone.