Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[djpbaltimore]

We identified seasonal human coronaviruses, influenza viruses and rhinoviruses in exhaled breath and coughs of children and adults with acute respiratory illness. Surgical face masks significantly reduced detection of influenza virus RNA in respiratory droplets and coronavirus RNA in aerosols, with a trend toward reduced detection of coronavirus RNA in respiratory droplets. Our results indicate that surgical face masks could prevent transmission of human coronaviruses and influenza viruses from symptomatic individuals.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2

 

[Unchained]

Neves, correct the official Mexican policy is shelter in place. In Tijuana and Ensenada the regular state clinics are closed for regular medical treatment. People are not allowed to enter the building. Most people are pre checked at the door before entering the waiting area of the clinic.
I only have ultra specific information about the General Hospital Ensenada. For the last 2 weekends there is a crazy calm. Very very very few patients. Regular car accidents,fall downs,fights, OD's drunks ..almost nobody..!!?
A puzzle.
people are allowed to travel to the US for work, but anybody with a B1,B2 entry card is not permitted to enter the United States. Inner Mexico after curfew travel is supposed to be strictly for work and emergency. From the news it was because folks were out getting a Snickers, 12 pack and cigarettes the government mandated no alcohol for a month. So they had to set a reference for what constitutes an emergency..a pack of Marlboro is not.
I am shuttling motorcycle parts today from San Diego to my Mexican motorcycle mechanic in an attempt to brown nose hard enough to get from seals and new springs installed from merit payment.
Today in San Diego county citations will possibly be issued for not wearing a face mask..

 

[Forever The Best]

Just read this in Bloomberg finance....

“China is not the only country with suspect public reporting on coronavirus.
Western officials have pointed to Iran, Russia, Indonesia and especially North Korea, which has not reported a single case of the disease, as probable under-counts”

But with possible exception of Indonesia what they all have in common is they are not free democracies.

Indonesia is a free democracy based on?

 

[Koronin]

This is amazing: a study on the effects of the pandemic on mobility by country, which effectively shows how thorough lockdowns are around the world.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility

It would seem people in the United States aren't taking this as seriously as they should.

In some cases in the US you have to take into account how far away just a grocery store is from where you live. Also there are plenty of people who live on acres of land. Remember the entire food industry is considered essential work. Also any company that has chosen to switch over from manufacturing clothing to manufacturing PPE is granted essential status.

 

[jmdirt]

This is amazing: a study on the effects of the pandemic on mobility by country, which effectively shows how thorough lockdowns are around the world.
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility

It would seem people in the United States aren't taking this as seriously as they should.

There is sheriff in North Idaho who wants the Idaho stay home order lifted (to avoid any political commentary I'll let you go to the Idaho Statesman and read his comments if you choose). His sparsely populated county only has one case so far so why not let them go about their regular life? Well, people from other counties will come over for lunch, people from Washington state (the width of a river away) will pop over for dinner...you get the idea, pretty soon this will be the Idaho epicenter and there is almost literally no medical capacity in his county. As much as he and and others there would like to live in a bubble, they can't. The once booming timber area relies on tourism to keep things going so kick-starting the economy means killing a lot of people.

*Note: I've lived in Boise for 25 years, but grew up in Priest River which is one of the towns in this county.

 

[Unchained]

Not sure were the "pact" is whether it's verbal,understood or an official statement. Nobody has data. And true data was/is/will be seen as a scarlet letter stigma maybe never t to go away.
China is in turbo mode, spreading good will to anyone and everyone,sending equipment,experts and money. Yesterday saw 2 separate stories about Italy being on the receiving end of Chinese aid. The day before saw a story about Chinese tech companies advising African governments about an app that tracks movement to help in virus forensics. Once the app is installed, if a person comes up positive, authorities can back track and have an idea of areas are most necessary.
in the US, early on, one or two cruise ships were seen to tip what at that time was a delicate balance. Officials not wanting the ships to dock for fear of negative data..and it's impact.
And not in hindsight,the damage was never of a medical nature. Almost no logical or rational person could see were placing some kind of absolute blame for the virus origin or spread would help overcome the pandemic. Not to say that that may one day have a place but not now,not in real time.
The other completely crazy thing going on now,especially here in California,is zip code reporting and race make up. The virus is mobile,ultra contagious,so knowing where a hot spot is can certainly be helpful,but the sense of security anybody would get from the data is dumb..same a age,race or sex..does every American need Clint Eastwood to ask each individual " do you feel lucky? "
It was heartbreaking to hear of the multiple deaths in Georgia that trace back to one funeral. And reading stories of people getting to hear final words of a loved one via walkie talkie or relayed through a passing caregiver.
We need testing for every American,multiple times over before data transmission or omission is of any importance

 

[djpbaltimore]

For more granular detail related to the mobility of people in the USA, here is a visualization about the heterogeneity of responses based on geography using cell phone data. Some clearly related to rural communities needing to travel more for the necessities, but also due to local policy decisions (or indecision).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245744504063352834

View: https://twitter.com/mikiebarb/status/1245744504063352834

 

[Cookster15]

Indonesia is a free democracy based on?

They conduct elections to elect their president. That is why I mention "possible". Cheers.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

So does Russia, and you didn't give them a 'possible'.

 

[Cookster15]

So does Russia, and you didn't give them a 'possible'.

Yes I thought of that when I posted. Oh well, my point was generally valid.

 

[MartinGT]

Itália cura nove pessoas com COVID-19 que receberam plasma de doentes recuperados

Nove italianos em estado grave com COVID-19 ficaram curados após receber transfusões de plasma de doentes recuperados. Tratamento já resultou na China e foi permitido nos EUA.

observador.pt

 

[tobydawq]

Itália cura nove pessoas com COVID-19 que receberam plasma de doentes recuperados

Nove italianos em estado grave com COVID-19 ficaram curados após receber transfusões de plasma de doentes recuperados. Tratamento já resultou na China e foi permitido nos EUA.

observador.pt

Now we have to be able to read Portuguese as well?

It seems promising, by the way.

 

[movingtarget]

And we can thank the CCP for that. Crap information and lies from a Government more interested in appearance than the spread of a global pandemic.

No Western Country in their right mind will ever again rely on China for their supply chain unless it's for trinkets everyone can live without.

Don't be surprised to see the Chinese economy all but collapse in the coming years.

Don't see their economy collapsing but tourism to China might have an interesting time ahead. Cruise ship companies as well will be a much harder sell. Some airlines will never recover, a lot of things connected with the travel industry will suffer. Medical manufacturing on the other hand............

 

[jmdirt]

Don't see their economy collapsing but tourism to China might have an interesting time ahead. Cruise ship companies as well will be a much harder sell. Some airlines will never recover, a lot of things connected with the travel industry will suffer. Medical manufacturing on the other hand............

What are they going to do with all of the ventilators once we get past this? That part of med manufacturing will have surplus for quite a while (I hope anyway). I do think that most if not all countries will over-stockpile everything so that should create a lot of business for a while.

 

[Unchained]

I have been pondering for days architecture and the business model of the United States and other places I have patronized.
So is there really a possibility of a " coast is clear" business scenario?
I drink at a few places,including a couple of VFW's..don't see how the current design can accommodate 6ft social distancing standards.
places I eat..Mexican food restaurants and taco shops..current seating,bathroom and pick up, pay for arrangements just don't look like 5 or 6 ft apart at many parts of the transaction are possible.
Then sports..don't think my brain is wrapped around what social distancing and stadium seating is going to look like.
public transportation? Airlines already hated us w sardine profit structure,trying to jam us in..not sure what a new socially distance aircraft interior looks like..
buses and trains? I don't see how this works.
I tried to buy dog , food( Wal Mart) trash bags,carriage bolts,bungee cords,caulking ( Home Depot) and stop by Chase Bank to get a $100 dollar bill for a gift.
US Post Office on Donax Ave..
Every location in Imperial Beach was using some type of @6ft spacing and controlled access to the lobby or store..Wal Mart and Home Depot had some predetermined safe customer level..I stayed at HD didn't move for 10 minutes..Wal Mart watched @20 folks exit..felt encouraged..but only 5 were able to enter I was 50-60 people back.
Line at the bank was @10-15 people..used ATM at the gas station..Post Office was the post office w a Corona curve ball thrown in..decided that what I needed to mail could wait..so I wanted to spend money..just not that bad..
Gotta wonder if online will look even more attractive.
All our beaches and parks are closed.

 

[movingtarget]

What are they going to do with all of the ventilators once we get past this? That part of med manufacturing will have surplus for quite a while (I hope anyway). I do think that most if not all countries will over-stockpile everything so that should create a lot of business for a while.

It is also a commercial race to find a vaccine not just a public service. things like masks, and most protective equipment, maybe cheaper versions of ventilators and so one. The countries that were caught short equipment wise like Italy and Spain will surely have to invest when their economy becomes stabilized but then the USA is also scrabbling for equipment but many countries are in the same boat at the moment.

 

[Koronin]

It is also a commercial race to find a vaccine not just a public service. things like masks, and most protective equipment, maybe cheaper versions of ventilators and so one. The countries that were caught short equipment wise like Italy and Spain will surely have to invest when their economy becomes stabilized but then the USA is also scrabbling for equipment but many countries are in the same boat at the moment.

In the US you could also have a situation where some states decide to do their own stockpiles as well.

 

[8472]

No Western Country in their right mind will ever again rely on China for their supply chain unless it's for trinkets everyone can live without.

Don't be surprised to see the Chinese economy all but collapse in the coming years.

Exports only account for 17% of total GDP and has continued to drop every year for the past 10 years, with the vast majority of GDP growth being fuelled by domestic consumption. Translation: China is not going to collapse no matter how much the anti-China exceptionists have been predicting it to over the past 20 years. Stop reading and believing MSM and armchair "experts" like Gordon Chang who make a living off bashing China with no facts backing any of their accusations and assumptions.

China: share of exports in GDP 2024| Statista

China's share of exports in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately **** percent in 2024, increasing slightly from the previous year.

www.statista.com

What are they going to do with all of the ventilators once we get past this? That part of med manufacturing will have surplus for quite a while (I hope anyway). I do think that most if not all countries will over-stockpile everything so that should create a lot of business for a while.

Chinese companies have a very small foothold in the ventilator market, with the majority of companies that produce ventilators being owned by western countries.

TOP 10 COMPANIES IN VENTILATORS MARKET

The Ventilators Market is expected to reach USD 7.72 billion by 2027, at a CAGR of 15.8% during the forecast period of 2020 to 2027. Ventilatory intervention

meticulousblog.org

 

[Jagartrott]

So, er, the strategy is to make a profit out of essential supplies - and have states start a bidding war?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245841458323771393

 

[djpbaltimore]

As noted PPE distribution is fishy. Back-channelling China using an NFL owner's private plane to deliver PPE is not how this is supposed to work.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245673091986046976

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MassGovernor/status/1245673091986046976

 

[jmdirt]

Exports only account for 17% of total GDP and has continued to drop every year for the past 10 years, with the vast majority of GDP growth being fuelled by domestic consumption. Translation: China is not going to collapse no matter how much the anti-China exceptionists have been predicting it to over the past 20 years. Stop reading and believing MSM and armchair "experts" like Gordon Chang who make a living off bashing China with no facts backing any of their accusations and assumptions.

China: share of exports in GDP 2024| Statista

China's share of exports in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately **** percent in 2024, increasing slightly from the previous year.

www.statista.com

Chinese companies have a very small foothold in the ventilator market, with the majority of companies that produce ventilators being owned by western countries.

TOP 10 COMPANIES IN VENTILATORS MARKET

The Ventilators Market is expected to reach USD 7.72 billion by 2027, at a CAGR of 15.8% during the forecast period of 2020 to 2027. Ventilatory intervention

meticulousblog.org

I just meant in general it seems like once we get past this there should be a surplus of ventilators. If anything I was thinking country-centric, USA economy.

 

[MartinGT]

Coronavirus: Out of Many, One

What Should the US Federal Government and the States Do to Fight the Coronavirus

medium.com

 

[Chris Gadsden]

As noted PPE distribution is fishy. Back-channelling China using an NFL owner's private plane to deliver PPE is not how this is supposed to work.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245673091986046976

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/MassGovernor/status/1245673091986046976

Which is exactly why developed nations will never again be in this situation. Globalized supply chain Is going to be re-thought.

 

[jmdirt]

I just heard an interesting way to view C19 after we get past the worst: after 9/11 airport security changed forever, and it is likely that many things in life will be different for the foreseeable future after C19 as well.

Being very careful not to be political here, but what is the national stockpile for if not for states to utilize in times of need?

 

[8472]

lol. Even if one takes this at face value 17% GDP is a huge chunk. So ask yourself, why now the CCP charm offensive worldwide?

The situation the Globe finds itself in right now is a direct result of the CCP. You may wish to believe whatever allows you sleep at night but this bears no relation to ANYTHING that has happened over the past 20 years wrt the Chinese economy and globalism in general. The snap-back to supply chain contained within a County’s own borders will be swift.

LOL? Ok let's assume every country in the world levies a collective trade embargo on China. Since domestic consumption accounts for 80% of China's total GDP, it's annual GDP growth would drop from 6% down to just under 5%, hardly the sort of numbers that would collapse its economy. Go back to reading more Gordon Chang if it makes you feel any better, after all he predicted the coming collapse of China in 8 of the past 20 years, wait make it 9 now.

And now China offering aid to countries affected by the coronavirus worldwide after they have beaten the virus on home soil is seen as CCP propaganda and a cause of scrutiny? MSM propaganda have seriously brainwashed some people so much they don't even realize how ridiculous they sound when they repeat the same anti-China rhetoric they've been force fed every day.

3 months ago:
China: Ok there's a new virus, from now on no one move around, if you go out you must wear a mask. Nationwide lockdown and quarantine policies implemented.
MSM: Don't trust anything these f-ing commies say! It's just a flu! They are trying to control everyone's life! There's no need for masks!

2 months ago:
China: Start building hospitals because the medical system is being overwhelmed.
MSM: It's a concentration camp! This is a human rights disaster! They are untrustworthy!

2 weeks ago:
China: Numbers are reducing in China. People slowly getting back to work now.
MSM: F-ing lies! We are seeing numbers in Italy and it clearly doesn't match data from China! Millions of people must have died! It's still spreading!

Now:
China: Why are things getting out of control out there? Why are you still not in total lockdown? Were you just sitting there pointing fingers at me for 3 months, and did nothing?
MSM: You f-ing commies never told us how dangerous this virus is! You've been giving us false data the whole time!!! The government covered up the figures and didn't alarm people how dangerous it is!

China: I don't understand. If you never trusted me and when I say it's a big deal, then it's actually a small flu, so why do you think there must be millions of people dead in China? If you think the number of deaths must be very high, doesn't that indicates it's a dangerous virus and you should be prepared? How could you believe millions of people have died on it, but at the same time not knowing it's dangerous?
MSM: It's only a big deal in a backward country like you, where people are poor and unhygienic, where the medical system is still in 1950s, where the government covers up the figures and doesn't alarm people how dangerous it is! It shouldn't affect advanced countries like us!

China: But it is with you and killing your people now! Do something about it so you can still save lives! Here, have some medical aid/supplies, and some medical teams to boot. Since we've beaten the virus, we'll devote our aid to helping out other countries no matter what they had said about us.
MSM: Not before we found everything we can blame on you! It's too late for us to do something now, but you must take the full responsibility for it! Anyway your aid is tainted, you're just spreading Chinese propaganda under the guise of medical aid! Even though we won't reject the aid, we'll still blame you for trying to make us look bad!

Anything to blame China. Whatever they do is wrong. Whatever they say are all lies. So yeah keep holding onto your sense of exceptionalism, I bet it helps you sleep better at night.