Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[nevele neves]

For more granular detail related to the mobility of people in the USA, here is a visualization about the heterogeneity of responses based on geography using cell phone data. Some clearly related to rural communities needing to travel more for the necessities, but also due to local policy decisions (or indecision).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245744504063352834

View: https://twitter.com/mikiebarb/status/1245744504063352834

in places like the Dixie states a grocery store or any other type of store is Most likely to be further than 3 miles.

 

[nevele neves]

And we can thank the CCP for that. Crap information and lies from a Government more interested in appearance than the spread of a global pandemic.

No Western Country in their right mind will ever again rely on China for their supply chain unless it's for trinkets everyone can live without.

Don't be surprised to see the Chinese economy all but collapse in the coming years.

The WHO outright supported their claims of No person to person. Even doctor Fauci said it was not a threat to the united states based on pure lies from China and the WHO.

 

[nevele neves]

Exports only account for 17% of total GDP and has continued to drop every year for the past 10 years, with the vast majority of GDP growth being fuelled by domestic consumption. Translation: China is not going to collapse no matter how much the anti-China exceptionists have been predicting it to over the past 20 years. Stop reading and believing MSM and armchair "experts" like Gordon Chang who make a living off bashing China with no facts backing any of their accusations and assumptions.

China: share of exports in GDP 2024| Statista

China's share of exports in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately **** percent in 2024, increasing slightly from the previous year.

www.statista.com

Chinese companies have a very small foothold in the ventilator market, with the majority of companies that produce ventilators being owned by western countries.

TOP 10 COMPANIES IN VENTILATORS MARKET

The Ventilators Market is expected to reach USD 7.72 billion by 2027, at a CAGR of 15.8% during the forecast period of 2020 to 2027. Ventilatory intervention

meticulousblog.org

Taiwan is doing a really good job with their GDP and continue to be a beacon of truth when it comes to covid19 information.

 

[djpbaltimore]

in places like the Dixie states a grocery store or any other type of store is Most likely to be further than 3 miles.

I've lived in Georgia and Arkansas and that claim is not remotely true. Some do, but no different than rural parts of other states.

 

[nevele neves]

I've lived in Georgia and Arkansas and that claim is not remotely true. Some do, but no different than rural parts of other states.

WRONG. I know people right now who have to travel 30 miles or a little more one way to get to a grocery store and even then their options are limited. Either Walmart or PigglyWig. There are no large cities in those states - Parts of Georgia is an exception due to city urban sprawl.
That map was county by county and you can see that most of those are rural.

Just in case you are still in disbelief.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-access-research-atlas/go-to-the-atlas.aspx#.UUDJLTeyL28

https://grist.org/food/this-sobering-map-shows-you-all-of-americas-food-deserts/

using arkansas as an example.

That map was county by county and you can see that most of those are rural.
Some really interesting results for actual access to FOOD in Arkansas. They have Maps and I bet if you take a look at that politically motivated map you had sourced from twitter vs what these maps show then you can see for yourself just how far real food is when traveling.
https://scholarworks.uark.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1561&context=etd

https://scholarworks.uark.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=aeabuht

 

[nevele neves]

I've lived in Georgia and Arkansas and that claim is not remotely true. Some do, but no different than rural parts of other states.

THE USDA says different.
https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-access-research-atlas/go-to-the-atlas.aspx#.UUDJLTeyL28

And it all goes back to poverty. Who would have thought.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/webdocs/publications/45014/30940_err140.pdf

 

[Koronin]

I live in North Carolina and have for 20 years now. Have lived in two parts of the state. I used to live outside of Charlotte. From the neighborhood I lived in to the closest Food Lion (large grocery chain in NC) was just over 3 miles. Anyone who lived farther into the neighborhood would be over 3 miles to that grocery store. I now live at the coast in a military city. Neighborhood I live in is just outside the city limits. The closest grocery stores (Food Lion and Lowe's Foods) are about 4.5 miles from my house. Those two are across the street from each other. It's over 1 mile to just get out of my neighborhood. Although we have a lot of grocery stores there are many people who live farther away from grocery any of the grocery stores than I live.

 

[8472]

The WHO outright supported their claims of No person to person. Even doctor Fauci said it was not a threat to the united states based on pure lies from China and the WHO.

There's no denying they had a few screwups early on, as I had readily admitted. But they were not pure lies, more so due to delays and inexperience, especially when faced with a novel never seen before virus with a very long incubation period. As stated by the WHO on Jan 14 (note the word preliminary):

Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China????. pic.twitter.com/Fnl5P877VG
— World Health Organization (WHO) (@WHO) January 14, 2020

Then on Jan 20, China officially confirmed human-to-human transmission. When you take into account the long 14 day incubation period of the virus, and time needed to track down all contacts, you would expect some delay in confirming with 100% certainty human-to-human transmission. Could they have acted faster? In hindsight, definitely. But pure lies? No, you don't lock everything down within a few days when a few patients are presented with a novel virus with long incubation time and symptoms exactly same as regular flu. Even at the time of China's lockdown on Jan 23, not one media source anywhere, no matter how anti-China, was saying the lockdown was too slow and should have occurred earlier, but rather it was called inhumane and violation of human rights at the time.

 

[Jagartrott]

8472: Can you please quit the "western MSM". The stories I have read about China (in The Guardian and Flemish newspapers) are varied, some quite positive, some more critical. What is this western MSM anyway - is the German press the same as the American, and the Italian, etc. etc. "The West" is totally not uniform, culturally, politically, historically. If you complain about latent racism about China, could you please stop treating "the west" as one entity?

 

[8472]

8472: Can you please quit the "western MSM". The stories I have read about China (in The Guardian and Flemish newspapers) are varied, some quite positive, some more critical. What is this western MSM anyway - is the German press the same as the American, and the Italian, etc. etc. "The West" is totally not uniform, culturally, politically, historically. If you complain about latent racism about China, could you please stop treating "the west" as one entity?

Ok, edited my post to simply state the mainstream media/MSM propaganda outlets, who basically all push the same anti-China agenda rather than report on facts. Obviously, there's some western news outlets that do not, so I will make that distinction.

 

[djpbaltimore]

WRONG. I know people right now who have to travel 30 miles or a little more one way to get to a grocery store and even then their options are limited. Either Walmart or PigglyWig. There are no large cities in those states - Parts of Georgia is an exception due to city urban sprawl.
That map was county by county and you can see that most of those are rural.

Just in case you are still in disbelief.

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-access-research-atlas/go-to-the-atlas.aspx#.UUDJLTeyL28

https://grist.org/food/this-sobering-map-shows-you-all-of-americas-food-deserts/

using arkansas as an example.

That map was county by county and you can see that most of those are rural.
Some really interesting results for actual access to FOOD in Arkansas. They have Maps and I bet if you take a look at that politically motivated map you had sourced from twitter vs what these maps show then you can see for yourself just how far real food is when traveling.
https://scholarworks.uark.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1561&context=etd

https://scholarworks.uark.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1012&context=aeabuht

You said access to 'any other type of store', but now want to only talk about groceries. Hmmmmm.....There are krogers all over Arkansas. I walked to get groceries. The poor areas also had grocery stores. Most of the people live in cities where there are stores within 3 miles. Quit posting false statements. Most people do not have to travel 3 miles to shop in Arkansas. You think the Dakotas don't have similar issues? Yet they have decreased traveling.

I remember when my krogers got renovated. It closed for a while. What did I do? I walked to the other krogers. Walked. Less than 1 mile.

LR metro area is about 900k. Get outta here with the no big cities in Arkansas take.

 

[Cookster15]

This has nothing to do with so called "anti China"

How has China virtually stopped spread of the virus at just over 80,000 cases without a vaccine? How can China's factories be coming back up to speed manufacturing when there is no vaccine? Humans have no resistance to coronavirus infection this is why it is so dangerous. As soon as lockdown restrictions are lifted it will spread again and the true cases in China rather than the "official" cases publicised by the WHO will rise.

In my country, much business activity stopped when restrictions were implemented and enforced by police. Such as:- 1.5 metre social distancing rule; maximum two people in any public space. Work at home if you can. Don't shop except for food and essential items. Wear masks, gloves and maintain strict personal hygiene. Our police are fining people for going to the beach or pulling you over in your car to ask if you have a good excuse not to be home. Roads are almost deserted in peak (rush) hour. Retail shopping centers have become deserted. Small businesses suddenly no sales turnover to pay the rent or staff wages.

So how has China managed to restart its factories when the virus is still an active organism? Factories need workers. So you scan every employee for a temperature? In every place of work in China? That won't work. Sorry this is not possible no matter how strict the regime and I don't rely on western media I rely on basic knowledge, facts and logic.

My post isn't anti China it is pro truth. If we in the west can learn from China then give us the truth. But so far China's actions to stop the spread don't add up and the western MSM has nothing to do with it. Just known facts and application of basic logic.

 

[hrotha]

How has China virtually stopped spread of the virus at just over 80,000 cases without a vaccine? How can China's factories be coming back up to speed manufacturing when there is no vaccine? Humans have no resistance to coronavirus infection this is why it is so dangerous. As soon as lockdown restrictions are lifted it will spread again and the true cases in China rather than the "official" cases publicised by the WHO will rise.

How does South Korea do it? By testing. Once you've more or less eliminated community transmission, it's all a matter of testing everyone you can, and especially everyone coming from abroad, everyone who displays any symptoms and everyone who has been in contact with those. South Korea didn't even go into lockdown. The Hubei province couldn't avoid it because obviously by the time the virus was properly identified community transmission was already too widespread for that. Sure, there is a risk, and a new outbreak is perfectly possible if these measures fail and enough infected people go undetected. But it is not necessarily inevitable.

Unless you simply don't believe the South Korean data, but funnily enough you don't see so many people accusing South Korea of outright lying.

 

[Jagartrott]

The most important reason why China was able to contain it, was that it was concentrated in one Chinese region. This region represents only about 5% of Chinese population. Isolating them from the rest, then rigourously testing elsewhere - where the proportion of cases was 0.00...cinco% of the population - did the rest. Unfortunately, in Italy and other countries, the virus was able to fly under the radar and rapidly spread before alarm bells went off. China dropped the ball early, most other countries as well - but the fortunate thing for China was that the spread was still minor in comparison to its population and area, whereas in Italy and other countries, the spread was much more heterogeneous. The early-stage testing wasn't huge in China. In fact, they were only were able to test 200 samples a day in Wuhan until fairly late in January (this is what a Chinese colleague tells me). But like I said, with a spread that was still localized, it helped a lot to lock these people up. Then you give yourself time to ramp up testing elsewhere.

Compare to the situation in my country, Belgium. About 1500 positive cases per day. That would equate to about 200.000 new positives every day in China. Do you think they would be able to eliminate or contain the virus then? Of course not, too late. Flatten the curve is all we can do. Hospitals are coping well, still only at 55% capacity, and new hospital admissions seem to be starting to slow down. Different strategy than China, but impossible to do anything else. Next week, we will carry out 10.000 tests/day, which would be comparable to China doing 1.5 million a day, but even that is not enough to fully cover all bases.

The most important thing we should've done, in hindsight, is cancel all flights from China the same time Wuhan was closed off, and test all the people that had come in from China the week prior. Ironically, WHO and China both told the world not to halt flights to and from China. Many governments made capital errors. I don't think anyone can (and should) claim clear high ground at this point. Also, pointing fingers is not very helpful either - that bill should be settled later (with substantial proof, i.e. not some dodgy leaked security info in Bloomberg).

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Yeah, it's easy to understand why China was able to control the spread elsewhere. I think the big isn't how other nations will act towards China... anyone who can make money dealing with them will continue to do so. The big issue is how all nations will start opening up to international travel. Here in SE Asia, travel is mostly shut down even though the effect of the virus is much lower compared to much of Europe or North America. At what point will those nations - and others less effected - feel it's OK to open up travel? Could there be an extended period of time in which most of East Asia and SE Asia are relatively open while large parts of the world remain shut down? Or will they be overly cautious and wait until vaccines and/or antibody tests are widely available?

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Since domestic consumption accounts for 80% of China's total GDP, it's annual GDP growth would drop from 6% down to just under 5%, hardly the sort of numbers that would collapse its economy.

China’s GDP last year was about $14 Trillion. GDP for 2018 was about $13.4T. At 6% growth China added about $600B in goods and services. If China took a 20% hit to GDP their economy would shrink to about $11T. So growth in GDP would be a series of negative numbers over time and would all but cripple their economy.

Go back to reading more Gordon Chang if it makes you feel any better,

I’ve never heard of this dude before today but his thorn is in your saddle.. that much is clear.

And now China offering aid to countries affected by the coronavirus worldwide after they have beaten the virus on home soil is seen as CCP propaganda and a cause of scrutiny?

Absolutely. How many whistleblowing Chinese doctors are the CCP going to Make disappear?

https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/whistleblowing-coronavirus-doctor-mysteriously-vanishes/
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-whistleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-whistleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2

Lots of articles discussing doctors, journalists and business leader missing for... criticizing Xi and the CCP.

Anything to blame China. Whatever they do is wrong. Whatever they say are all lies. So yeah keep holding onto your sense of exceptionalism, I bet it helps you sleep better at night.

You are an apologist. I am highly critical. They deserve every bit of criticism they get.

 

[Cookster15]

How does South Korea do it? By testing. Once you've more or less eliminated community transmission, it's all a matter of testing everyone you can, and especially everyone coming from abroad, everyone who displays any symptoms and everyone who has been in contact with those. South Korea didn't even go into lockdown. The Hubei province couldn't avoid it because obviously by the time the virus was properly identified community transmission was already too widespread for that. Sure, there is a risk, and a new outbreak is perfectly possible if these measures fail and enough infected people go undetected. But it is not necessarily inevitable.

Unless you simply don't believe the South Korean data, but funnily enough you don't see so many people accusing South Korea of outright lying.

Did you actually check South Korea's stats? They have haven't stopped growth in case numbers. I just checked the official stats. Look at the China's chart which virtually flat lines from beginning of March with few very new cases. South Korea's has not. So I remain unconvinced of China's numbers. My argument is by the time they started the crackdown it was too late.

 

[nevele neves]

You said access to 'any other type of store', but now want to only talk about groceries. Hmmmmm.....There are krogers all over Arkansas. I walked to get groceries. The poor areas also had grocery stores. Most of the people live in cities where there are stores within 3 miles. Quit posting false statements. Most people do not have to travel 3 miles to shop in Arkansas. You think the Dakotas don't have similar issues? Yet they have decreased traveling.

I remember when my krogers got renovated. It closed for a while. What did I do? I walked to the other krogers. Walked. Less than 1 mile.

LR metro area is about 900k. Get outta here with the no big cities in Arkansas take.

sorry man but you are wrong. I gave you proof and you ignore it. You were or was in a "large town" for arkansas. many people can give you examples but you were probably close to a university or metro area for there.

You want those poor bastards to only have access to canned food or boxed food. "any other store" That is why we have the current leadership we have today , simple minded one track minded people like this.

 

[Cookster15]

The most important reason why China was able to contain it, was that it was concentrated in one Chinese region...... The early-stage testing wasn't huge in China. In fact, they were only were able to test 200 samples a day in Wuhan until fairly late in January (this is what a Chinese colleague tells me).

How long elapsed between the original outbreak in Wuhan and the crackdown? It was too late to contain it by then, the cat was already out of the bag. Look at the WHO charts of case numbers. Someone else said how did South Korea do it? They didn't. Look at the WHO charts which raise more questions than answers.

 

[8472]

This has nothing to do with so called "anti China"

How has China virtually stopped spread of the virus at just over 80,000 cases without a vaccine? How can China's factories be coming back up to speed manufacturing when there is no vaccine? Humans have no resistance to coronavirus infection this is why it is so dangerous. As soon as lockdown restrictions are lifted it will spread again and the true cases in China rather than the "official" cases publicised by the WHO will rise.

In my country, much business activity stopped when restrictions were implemented and enforced by police. Such as:- 1.5 metre social distancing rule; maximum two people in any public space. Work at home if you can. Don't shop except for food and essential items. Wear masks, gloves and maintain strict personal hygiene. Our police are fining people for going to the beach or pulling you over in your car to ask if you have a good excuse not to be home. Roads are almost deserted in peak (rush) hour. Retail shopping centers have become deserted. Small businesses suddenly no sales turnover to pay the rent or staff wages.

So how has China managed to restart its factories when the virus is still an active organism? Factories need workers. So you scan every employee for a temperature? In every place of work in China? That won't work. Sorry this is not possible no matter how strict the regime and I don't rely on western media I rely on basic knowledge, facts and logic.

My post isn't anti China it is pro truth. If we in the west can learn from China then give us the truth. But so far China's actions to stop the spread don't add up and the western MSM has nothing to do with it. Just known facts and application of basic logic.

You just basically answered your own question. The magnitude of lockdown that occurred in China was several magnitudes more strict than those implemented by the majority of other countries. The social distancing guidelines in place around the world (distancing rule, limit on number of people, only essential shopping) pale in comparison to what true large-scale lockdown in Wuhan/Hubei was like – you weren’t allowed to leave the house for ANY reason at all, food was delivered to your door by social workers. Door to door temperature checks, and anyone with a temperature above 37.3% was forced to go into quarantine, so these measures actually bordered on limiting human rights, which not many other countries would even think of enforcing.

You want known facts and application of basic logic? Ok. Basic virology states that a virus needs a new host in order to spread, so when you remove the majority of all possible hosts, either via a vaccine (smallpox, measles, etc), or via strict quarantine (COVID-19), the viral R0 would decrease significantly to below 1, resulting in the virus dying out over time. Since anyone contracting the virus was infectious for a period of ~3 weeks, the 2 month enforced lockdown/quarantine made sure that the virus is well and truly eradicated. Hence the closure of ALL temporary and newly built hospitals, and sending of aid/medical teams overseas, which would only occur if the problem has already been contained.

 

[8472]

China’s GDP last year was about $14 Trillion. GDP for 2018 was about $13.4T. At 6% growth China added about $600B in goods and services. If China took a 20% hit to GDP their economy would shrink to about $11T. So growth in GDP would be a series of negative numbers over time and would all but cripple their economy.

You must’ve skipped economics class. A 20% loss of annual GDP growth does NOT equal a 20% contraction in GDP. $14 trillion total GDP and 6% annual GDP growth = $840 billion annual GDP growth. A 20% loss of annual GDP growth = 4.8% GDP GROWTH or $672 billion annual GDP growth from domestic consumption alone.

Absolutely. How many whistleblowing Chinese doctors are the CCP going to Make disappear?

https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/whistleblowing-coronavirus-doctor-mysteriously-vanishes/
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-whistleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-whistleblowers-speak-out-vanish-2020-2

Lots of articles discussing doctors, journalists and business leader missing for... criticizing Xi and the CCP.

Stop the ignorant comments. It is embarrassing for anyone who can do a bit of independent research instead of parroting what they hear on MSM. Dr Ai Fen is alive and well.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1245740981195956224

View: https://twitter.com/CarlZha/status/1245740981195956224


And at least 51 doctors have already died in Italy, and many more have died around the world fighting the virus. China is not the only country where doctors are "disappearing".

You are an apologist. I am highly critical. They deserve every bit of criticism they get.

You are just living in denial and can't think independently.

 

[8472]

How long elapsed between the original outbreak in Wuhan and the crackdown? It was too late to contain it by then, the cat was already out of the bag. Look at the WHO charts of case numbers. Someone else said how did South Korea do it? They didn't. Look at the WHO charts which raise more questions than answers.

Did you actually check South Korea's stats? They have haven't stopped growth in case numbers. I just checked the official stats. Look at the China's chart which virtually flat lines from beginning of March with few very new cases. South Korea's has not. So I remain unconvinced of China's numbers. My argument is by the time they started the crackdown it was too late.

South Korea did not go into lockdown, unlike China. But they managed to significantly flatten the curve though aggressive testing of infection clusters like China. Strict containment measures (widespread testing/tracing/isolation) coupled with the fact that the main cluster in China was centred around Wuhan/Hubei as Jagartrott said, means that the crackdown was not too late, and could be contained.

 

[Merckx index]

Then on Jan 20, China officially confirmed human-to-human transmission. When you take into account the long 14 day incubation period of the virus, and time needed to track down all contacts, you would expect some delay in confirming with 100% certainty human-to-human transmission. Could they have acted faster? In hindsight, definitely. But pure lies? No, you don't lock everything down within a few days when a few patients are presented with a novel virus with long incubation time and symptoms exactly same as regular flu. Even at the time of China's lockdown on Jan 23, not one media source anywhere, no matter how anti-China, was saying the lockdown was too slow and should have occurred earlier, but rather it was called inhumane and violation of human rights at the time.

A week after LI Wenliang first experienced symptoms, and was hospitalized shortly after, China and WHO were still saying there was no clear evidence of human-human transmission or infection of medical staff. At least two other doctors in Wuhan were infected before Li. The Lancet published a study of 41 infected people, and found no evidence for association with the wet market for 14 of them. The authors clearly stated in the conclusion that they thought human-human transmission was likely. Now that article was officially published on Jan. 24, but all the patients admitted to the study were registered at least three weeks earlier, at which time the wet market link would have been known. The statement "no clear evidence" simply was false. No definitive proof maybe, but definitely clear evidence.

How has China virtually stopped spread of the virus at just over 80,000 cases without a vaccine?

By doing what very few other governments can. Tracking the movements of every infected person, identifying the people they came into contact with, and targeting them for testing. Using AI to identify the most likely locations of clusters.

 

[nevele neves]

This really bothers me. Fauci made that statement on Jan. 17. A week earlier, Li Wenliang began experiencing symptoms and was hospitalized. At least two other doctors in Wuhan hospitals became infected in December. A study published in the Lancet on Jan. 3 found that of 41 infected patients, there was no evidence associating 14 of them to the wet market. They clearly stated in their conclusion that they thought human-human transmission was likely. Was Fauci unaware of the Lancet article? Was he depending solely on what China and WHO were telling him?



By doing what very few other governments can. Tracking the movements of every infected person, identifying the people they came into contact with, and targeting them for testing. Using AI to identify the most likely locations of clusters.

I believe he was depending on them for the info. I remember a confrontational interview where someone questioned him about the validity of the data and facts from china then and he would not back down. They outright lied to everyone. I doubt a few here will admit it and continue to find some weird way to roll it back to the WEST.
The good thing about the WEB today is everything is still there.

good luck to anyone who wants to defend these bastards.

 

[8472]

but yet somehow I bet 8472 or Baltimore Arkansas will tell you that you would be wrong to stop all travel from China.The exact place all of this originates from and the exact people who lied. No human to human not in the air. F off really if you can't see this for what it is.

They lied to everyone and now we pay the price.

Wrong, I think they were right to stop travel. In fact, all countries should have enforced the travel ban to and from China. But it's the responsibility of other countries to restrict travel and close their borders. If you're another country and you don't want Chinese people to travel to your country, you don't have to allow them. That's up to you, that's what closing the borders are for. Why's it up to China to decide for the entire world what they are willing to accept into their country?

Imagine the 2009 H1N1 outbreak in the USA: is it the responsibility of the USA to close their borders and stop all travel in/out of USA? Or is it the responsibility of other countries to restrict travel from USA if they feel threatened by it? Imagine if all other countries had demanded and blamed USA for not shutting off all inbound/outbound travel as soon as the epidemic occurred.