Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Unchained]

In case you don't know the American snake..it's a COBRA..deadly,expensive and strikes almost every time someone loses their job..

 

[djpbaltimore]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1246865203330985991

View: https://mobile.twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1246865203330985991

 

[Cookster15]

Because every country in Europe and the Americas became aware of the real scale of the problem long before they had a real outbreak within their borders, and most of them still chose to do zilch. We're talking about human-to-human transmission being acknowledged by late January, and yet Spain (as an example) only started timidly doing something about it in late February, and no effective measures were taken until mid March. Certainly there were cases in February, many of which went undetected, but at the scale they were the situation could still have been controlled. To this day, the US still isn't enforcing a strict nation-wide lockdown. Whose fault is that?

This is only partially true. It helps explain why the situation is worse in parts of Europe than say Australia but it does not counter my point that China tried to hush up the outbreak for approximately 1 month and in that time many thousands travelled outside Wuhan and to parts of the world to spread the virus.

In Australia we are having some success flattening the case curve. But the problem initially arrived in some cases on flights with infected passengers on route from Wuhan before China implemented its lockdown. Before our government was even aware of the Wuhan out break. This has since been exacerbated by the arrival of cruise ships with infected passengers. There are currently big questions being asked who was responsible for allowing over 2,000 passengers from one of those ships with known passengers with flu like symptoms to disembark in Sydney without the mandatory 14 day quarantine which now applies for all overseas arrivals.

 

[Cookster15]

Hey - People need to take personal responsibility - You should be carrying hand sanitizer if you leave home and use it at least every 20 minutes.

I do that. But is it reasonable to expect the entire population to do this? No it isn't reasonable. The point is the virus can be spread this way and people are not robots whose actions we can so tightly control. It isn't hard to lose one's concentration and you get infected from a surface. Yes even in China and Chinese factory workers which again to remind you is why China's almost no new cases is hard to believe.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

idk my country (Thailand) was still letting in travelers from China longer than the rest of the world. We wanted their business and tourism. This continued long after mid-January, when we were the first nation with a confirmed case outside of China. However, our cases didn't really pick up until we started importing the virus from Europe. Again, we wanted the tourist money.

Certainly things could have been handled better locally at the start of the outbreak. But, you know what? Everyone knew about this at the turn of the year and could have prepared better. Isolating cases and tracking clusters earlier. Or, do what we do. Combine the tracking with that sweet, sweet tropical climate.

Focusing on China is too myopic. What does is matter now? If you plan on relying regional governments in developing countries to do the correct thing, you'll end up losing too often. That's just the way it is. And millions of people pass through each major city from all over the world every day. No one should be surprised that a disease spreads quickly or that regional government didn't act effectively in the small window it had to contain it.

 

[movingtarget]

This is only partially true. It helps explain why the situation is worse in parts of Europe than say Australia but it does not counter my point that China tried to hush up the outbreak for approximately 1 month and in that time many thousands travelled outside Wuhan and to parts of the world to spread the virus.

In Australia we are having some success flattening the case curve. But the problem initially arrived in some cases on flights with infected passengers on route from Wuhan before China implemented its lockdown. Before our government was even aware of the Wuhan out break. This has since been exacerbated by the arrival of cruise ships with infected passengers. There are currently big questions being asked who was responsible for allowing over 2,000 passengers from one of those ships with known passengers with flu like symptoms to disembark in Sydney without the mandatory 14 day quarantine which now applies for all overseas arrivals.

As far as I know they were checked before they disembarked but some obviously didn't show symptoms till they returned home and a few have died since. Someone is going to lose their job probably, not that that helps the families much.............

 

[Merckx index]

Here's a feel-good story:

A 103 year old man in Oregon was infected with the virus--and recovered in time to celebrate his 104th!

He belongs to a fairly selective group of people who have lived through both the Spanish Flu and the coronavirus.

 

[Koronin]

From reports it sounds like Italy, Spain, and France have hit their peaks and are either stabilizing or starting to see numbers reducing. Also New York appears to maybe be stabilizing on their numbers as well.

 

[8472]

Many countries have managed to significantly decrease the doubling time of the virus so that growth is no longer exponential, exceptions are UK, USA, Canada and France, although they still look better than a week ago. Doubling time for the week ending April 6th:

Canada = 3.67 days
UK = 3.68 days
USA = 3.99 days
France = 4.03 days
Portugal = 5.78 days
Belgium = 6.27 days
Spain = 7.88 days
Netherlands = 7.88 days
Germany = 8.37 days
Switzerland = 11.79 days
Australia = 13.07 days
Italy = 15.51 days

Within the US, only Washington (and to a smaller extent New York) has managed to flatten the rate of infections, rest of the states are still in exponential growth.
Louisiana = 2.14 days
Pennsylvania = 2.43 days
Michigan = 2.93 days
New Jersey = 3.02 days
Massachusetts = 3.46 days
Florida = 3.57 days
Illinois = 3.67 days
California = 3.84 days
New York = 4.86 days
Washington = 7.97 days

 

[nevele neves]

Many countries have managed to significantly decrease the doubling time of the virus so that growth is no longer exponential, exceptions are UK, USA, Canada and France, although they still look better than a week ago. Doubling time for the week ending April 6th:

Canada = 3.67 days
UK = 3.68 days
USA = 3.99 days
France = 4.03 days
Portugal = 5.78 days
Belgium = 6.27 days
Spain = 7.88 days
Netherlands = 7.88 days
Germany = 8.37 days
Switzerland = 11.79 days
Australia = 13.07 days
Italy = 15.51 days

Within the US, only Washington (and to a smaller extent New York) has managed to flatten the rate of infections, rest of the states are still in exponential growth.
Louisiana = 2.14 days
Pennsylvania = 2.43 days
Michigan = 2.93 days
New Jersey = 3.02 days
Massachusetts = 3.46 days
Florida = 3.57 days
Illinois = 3.67 days
California = 3.84 days
New York = 4.86 days
Washington = 7.97 days

if you believe China's fake numbers sure.

 

[nevele neves]

Hey - People need to take personal responsibility - You should be carrying hand sanitizer if you leave home and use it at least every 20 minutes.

thank you for the info.

 

[nevele neves]

im so fck in g curious how the muslims are doing in their re-education camps?

just the numbers or the facts will be fine.

YOU can't tell us because you don't know. Maybe they are all dead.

China is a full of it and you are apologizing and backing them up.

are you a communist bot?

 

[nevele neves]

Here's a feel-good story:

A 103 year old man in Oregon was infected with the virus--and recovered in time to celebrate his 104th!

He belongs to a fairly selective group of people who have lived through both the Spanish Flu and the coronavirus.

Spanish Flu and the China Wuhan Flu. Yup selct no doubt.

 

[nevele neves]

Many countries have managed to significantly decrease the doubling time of the virus so that growth is no longer exponential, exceptions are UK, USA, Canada and France, although they still look better than a week ago. Doubling time for the week ending April 6th:

Canada = 3.67 days
UK = 3.68 days
USA = 3.99 days
France = 4.03 days
Portugal = 5.78 days
Belgium = 6.27 days
Spain = 7.88 days
Netherlands = 7.88 days
Germany = 8.37 days
Switzerland = 11.79 days
Australia = 13.07 days
Italy = 15.51 days

Within the US, only Washington (and to a smaller extent New York) has managed to flatten the rate of infections, rest of the states are still in exponential growth.
Louisiana = 2.14 days
Pennsylvania = 2.43 days
Michigan = 2.93 days
New Jersey = 3.02 days
Massachusetts = 3.46 days
Florida = 3.57 days
Illinois = 3.67 days
California = 3.84 days
New York = 4.86 days
Washington = 7.97 days

your biased untrue data does not include all states. WHY?

is it because you are inclined to believe only certain data?

 

[Merckx index]

I think a daily increase in cases of < 10% is an encouraging sign. This corresponds to a doubling time of about a week. When countries get below this rate for several days in a row, they generally seem well on their way to sustained reduction of the daily increase. Unless, of course, restrictions are relaxed, and there's a resurgence in cases. But at or closing in on the peak, you generally see rates of 15% (5 day doubling) to 20% (4 days), and when the rates finally plunge below these levels, the decrease seems to be real and sustained.

Complexity theorist Stuart Kauffman argues that there is a critical phase transition in social distancing, and that this is 70—80% for the coronavirus. SD that falls short of this will not stop the virus. (I'm not sure, though, how this % value is determined).

He also mentions several important approaches to preventing or treating the viral infection, including not only monoclonal antibodies, but phage selection and small interfering RNA. The former is a technique that uses phage, or viruses that infect bacteria, to produce a huge library of proteins or peptides that can be screened for interactions with other proteins that could be useful in blocking the virus infection of cells. You can literally identify a one in a million peptide sequence that might be effective against the virus. Small interfering RNA are small segments of RNA that can bind to other RNA molecules, such as the coronavirus, preventing them from replicating. No question these techniques work in vitro, but in vivo may be another question.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yZhOTsoNOUc&feature=youtu.be&fbclid=IwAR1TpWbfbCjMXAeMyCGn8lcZN2KzaKsJqH8gOQIkCnEAD-VV9NjYIdczFxI

 

[Keram]

Many countries have managed to significantly decrease the doubling time of the virus so that growth is no longer exponential, exceptions are UK, USA, Canada and France, although they still look better than a week ago. Doubling time for the week ending April 6th:

Canada = 3.67 days
UK = 3.68 days
USA = 3.99 days
France = 4.03 days
Portugal = 5.78 days
Belgium = 6.27 days
Spain = 7.88 days
Netherlands = 7.88 days
Germany = 8.37 days
Switzerland = 11.79 days
Australia = 13.07 days
Italy = 15.51 days

Within the US, only Washington (and to a smaller extent New York) has managed to flatten the rate of infections, rest of the states are still in exponential growth.
Louisiana = 2.14 days
Pennsylvania = 2.43 days
Michigan = 2.93 days
New Jersey = 3.02 days
Massachusetts = 3.46 days
Florida = 3.57 days
Illinois = 3.67 days
California = 3.84 days
New York = 4.86 days
Washington = 7.97 days

When there is 100k+ cases like in Spain doubling in less than a week is impossible due to limited testing. This is not hold water. Though in Italy there is less ICU cases. That is better argument that they limited spreading.

 

[Koronin]

When there is 100k+ cases like in Spain doubling in less than a week is impossible due to limited testing. This is not hold water. Though in Italy there is less ICU cases. That is better argument that they limited spreading.

In the US for the most part we still don't have adequate testing. California has said they have around a 12 day turnaround on their test results. So the results they are getting back today are from over a week ago. That's not exactly useful for current information.

 

[movingtarget]

im so fck in g curious how the muslims are doing in their re-education camps? f

really? f china.

How would you expect they are doing ?

 

[yaco]

I do that. But is it reasonable to expect the entire population to do this? No it isn't reasonable. The point is the virus can be spread this way and people are not robots whose actions we can so tightly control. It isn't hard to lose one's concentration and you get infected from a surface. Yes even in China and Chinese factory workers which again to remind you is why China's almost no new cases is hard to believe.

You are failing to take personal responsibility and shifting the blame onto others - And you stuff about the WHO and Government's not being informed about the virus is factually inaccurate - They were informed during the XMAS and NY period - Stop inventing history.

 

[Cookster15]

You are failing to take personal responsibility and shifting the blame onto others - And you stuff about the WHO and Government's not being informed about the virus is factually inaccurate - They were informed during the XMAS and NY period - Stop inventing history.

As I explained to you I take personal responsibility. But neither you nor anyone else can assume everyone else will do the right thing.

As for when China informed the world, 23 days elapsed since the "official" announcement of the mysterious virus in Wuhan's wet markets to notifying the WHO. Naturally the rest of the world didn't react with alarm at that point as to do so would attract the ire of the second biggest economy on earth. In hindsight that was a big mistake. But to call these nations irresponsible is, well, irresponsible. .

 

[yaco]

As I explained to you I take personal responsibility. But neither you nor anyone else can assume everyone else will do the right thing.

As for when China informed the world, 23 days elapsed since the "official" announcement of the mysterious virus in Wuhan's wet markets to notifying the WHO. Naturally the rest of the world didn't react with alarm at that point as to do so would attract the ire of the second biggest economy on earth. In hindsight that was a big mistake. But to call these nations irresponsible is, well, irresponsible. .

You need to understand that information like this is often kept private from the public for a period of time - As an example the Australian government won't release their modeling on COVID19, yet this was complete on February 3 - So who is hiding information? Do you think Australia could have done their modeling by February 3 if they were only notified about Wuhan on the 24th of January ? Finally, Government's were never serious about COVID19 or they would have closed their borders in late January.

 

[Cookster15]

You need to understand that information like this is often kept private from the public for a period of time - As an example the Australian government won't release their modeling on COVID19, yet this was complete on February 3 - So who is hiding information? Do you think Australia could have done their modeling by February 3 if they were only notified about Wuhan on the 24th of January ? Finally, Government's were never serious about COVID19 or they would have closed their borders in late January.

Oh I understand, You just have a different opinion to me. That's fine you are entitled to that as am I. Your last sentence is also your opinion. Another reason is foreign trade. China is Australia's biggest export market and 2nd largest economy in the world. You don't risk upsetting your biggest customer until you are 100% sure. This well explains the delay.

 

[yaco]

Oh I understand, You just have a different opinion to me. That's fine you are entitled to that as am I. Your last sentence is also your opinion. Another reason is foreign trade. China is Australia's biggest export market and 2nd largest economy in the world. You don't risk upsetting your biggest customer until you are 100% sure. This well explains the delay.

It is nothing to do with trade - It's all to do with Government's of all persuasions sitting on information that they never want to made public or to be made public at a time of their choosing - You still haven't provided a reason why the Australian Government is still sitting on their modelling data for COVID 19 - And now they are coming under public pressure to release the data.

 

[Unchained]

I have read a couple of things that describe the distinction of this newest Corona strain and it's reaction to steroids that are commonly used to accelerate lung function. Doctors are saying that the drugs are working but not fast enough. That the speed of the viruses effects are slightly faster than previous and even w something to increase long function,and ventilators the therapeutic approaches are not enough for people that start with diminished body functions..so people w comprised immune systems and pre existing conditions were always the most at risk..for everything.
The rapid response of the virus is what is really special..
Kind of grim..most are saying things that I sum up to mean,the majority of high risk people who get exposed and symptoms are going to die.
Also lots of information points to Italy having beds early on,but the wrong type.I am learning of the critical importance of a standard hospital stay and an ICU bed..
And like surfboards, bicycles and race cars..you can have all the fantastic technology and equipment but wo trained professionals it's mostly useless.

 

[8472]

your biased untrue data does not include all states. WHY?

is it because you are inclined to believe only certain data?

I acquired my data from two official sites: worldometers and 1point3acres, then simply calculated a doubling time stat for some countries/states with the most infections. So you think those official sites are giving biased untrue data? Not going to put up with your continued trolling, welcome to my ignore list. Actually, I just saw the ban, now we don't have to put up with this guy's continued bs, thanks mods.