Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Cookster15]

Where did I post that life has returned to normal in China. My post is clearly stating that life hasn't returned to normal in China - There are still restrictions on movement, some migrant workers haven't returned to their work, unemployment is rising etc. It will be many months before China returns to a fully functioning society.

You say the scientific community hasn't confirmed that the wet markets are the source. Well science has a very high standard of proof. If China will be many months before it becomes a fully functioning society again than the Chinese government should take the conservative approach which is to act upon the wet markets as they remain the number one suspect.

 

[yaco]

Australia is doing as well or better than many of those. Testing helps but isn't the key. The key is social isolation.

Testing is equally as important as social isolation as they go hand in hand - No point isolating a community if you do little or no testing - Social isolation gives you the benefit of time to do more testing - Can say that Australia made a mistake of not testing aged care workers two or three times a week which has caused problems in that sector - It seems pointless that only in the last two days aged care workers have been targeted fo testing.

 

[Cookster15]

The scientific community has given no definitive source of Covid 19 yet - All we know at this stage is the first reported cases were in Wuhan - Whether it originated in Wuhan or a wet market or come from the moon is undetermined - This type of investigation could take 1 to 3 years before reaching a conclusion - I'll wait for the scientific community to reach a conclusion.

Well I hope you are not the Chinese government. How many more need to die around the world in the next wave or pandemic while we wait three years for proof? The prevailing opinion is that SARS was born from wet markets. Same with bird flu. No, lets wait for proof. Please! What is so important about these wet markets that they cannot be shut down or more tightly regulated by Beijing to prevent the conditions for these virus from continuing?

 

[yaco]

You say the scientific community hasn't confirmed that the wet markets are the source. Well science has a very high standard of proof. If China will be many months before it becomes a fully functioning society again than the Chinese government should take the conservative approach which is to act upon the wet markets as they remain the number one suspect.

Beijing released an edict over a month ago that no wild animals are to be sold in wet markets which was re-emphasised by Guangdong Province last week - The Indonesian Government did the same last month - You fail to accept that in some countries, people dont listen to their Governments, especially when people live a hand to mouth existence.

 

[yaco]

Well I hope you are not the Chinese government. How many more need to die around the world in the next wave or pandemic while we wait three years for proof? The prevailing opinion is that SARS was born from wet markets. Same with bird flu. No, lets wait for proof. Please! What is so important about these wet markets that they cannot be shut down or more tightly regulated by Beijing to prevent the conditions for these virus from continuing?

You are arguing in an immature manner - It takes time for scientists to study these matters to make a definitive conclusion - I guess you are unhappy scientists haven't already found a vaccine for COVID 19.

 

[Cookster15]

Testing is equally as important as social isolation as they go hand in hand - No point isolating a community if you do little or no testing - Social isolation gives you the benefit of time to do more testing - Can say that Australia made a mistake of not testing aged care workers two or three times a week which has caused problems in that sector - It seems pointless that only in the last two days aged care workers have been targeted fo testing.

I disagree. China's population is 1.4 Billion. Was it testing or strict social isolation. Obviously it was the latter and infrared scanning won't work either as many infected with COVID-19 can show no symptoms including no temperature.

 

[Cookster15]

You are arguing in an immature manner - It takes time for scientists to study these matters to make a definitive conclusion - I guess you are unhappy scientists haven't already found a vaccine for COVID 19 -

My reasoning was perfectly sound. Sorry if it upsets you.

 

[Cookster15]

Beijing released an edict over a month ago that no wild animals are to be sold in wet markets which was re-emphasised by Guangdong Province last week - The Indonesian Government did the same last month - You fail to accept that in some countries, people dont listen to their Governments, especially when people live a hand to mouth existence.

I don't fail to understand anything this is your faulty assumption and you underestimate my knowledge of China and its people. We are discussing China's wet markets. You will have a hard time convincing me the Chinese people don't listen to their government - including those who live a hand to mouth existence. To the contrary the Chinese are close to the most compliant in the world. This compliance is a big reason why China has been successful assuming we can believe the numbers. I know the Chinese are generally very proud of their government and trust that if they follow instruction they will be looked after. Thanks for the info that no wild animals are to be sold in wet markets I wasn't aware of this so I guess that is progress if it is true.

 

[Unchained]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oht_Y-JFcNQ


While everyone has time on their hands!!
When I crossed from San Diego to Tijuana..there are 3 toll booths until I get to my house in Ensenada ..got stopped 4 times at similar check points to the ones in this video. They don't \didn't ask me for any documentation..maybe because I am on a motorcycle.
Entering the US @ Tecate the border patrol are as normal..nice.professional. Don't ask any health questions at the border or at the intermediate check point on Hiway 94@ Otay Lakes Road.
This video is a reference for Americans,not sure what level of public observation -testing other countries are doing.
Friend stranded in Costa Rica for @20 days said police checkpoint personnel gave the stink eye for trying to walk more than @300 meters from hotel grounds.Allowing them to get to the mini market and no further.

 

[Koronin]

Of course in the US if you are furloughed or laid off from your job you have to file for unemployment if you hope to get any money to pay bills or eat. So of course in at least some states the unemployment website is continually being crashed due to volume so no one can actually apply for it.

 

[MartinGT]

Surprised nobody has mentioned British PM is in ICU

 

[Unchained]

East county San Diego..El Cajon and Rancho San Diego..most markets sold out of 75% of inventory. Zero paper products.
Meat selection getting better all the time..dairy always improving..@25-50 % stocked normally..you know that things are had when people are buying @$5 dollar flavored almond milk..
In store bakery kickin ' butt in the markets I have entered.
Not sure about Tijuana..but @75 miles south in Ensenada stores are full w the exception of eggs and beer..
gasoline is below 3 dollars in San Diego gasoline in Mexico is still waaaay higher @$3.70..3..85 for regular.
so the price in California is dramatically falling..in Mexico gas has held pretty steady for @3 months.
I have a loan thru a bank in Mexico..the payment is due on the 3rd of each month..last month I exchanged dollars for pesos 1: 18.73..this month $1 dollar got me 23.60 pesos..so it helps me because I am paid in dollars.
The tourism industry here is dead..scary scary dead..normally multiple cruise ships per week..none..all restaurants and bars closed..
Medical tourism is way way down..
Cabo San Lucas (Los Cabos) recently opened it's airport to direct flights from Europe..that's done..and all the other tourists nowhere to be found..
For those people that have been posting for a while..near Kreb's house there are horseback rentals, ATV rentals and motorized hang glider rides..sky is empty..ATV just sitting there..didn't see a horse so I figure that the cowboys probably just left them to nibble grass in the pasture.
On the toll road there is a sign welcoming Spring Breakers..The biggest bar brand..Papa's and Beer have there places boarded up with plywood..not looking like that they are opening anytime soon..
Bleeeeek

 

[Koronin]

Surprised nobody has mentioned British PM is in ICU

I was surprised when I heard it. Although maybe shouldn't have been due to the fact he had just gone to the hospital.

 

[Nomad]

I was surprised when I heard it. Although maybe shouldn't have been due to the fact he had just gone to the hospital.

A Covid-19 patient transferred to ICU is definitely not a good sign for any type of severe respiratory infection. It usually means the patient has some form of pneumonia.

PM's move to ICU shows he's likely to have severe Covid-19

Boris Johnson likely to receive mechanical ventilation as he’s admitted to intensive care

www.google.com

 

[Merckx index]

On the stability of the virus on surfaces, here's a fairly recent study:

https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32182409

The virus was viable after four hours on copper, 24 hr on cardboard, and 48-72 hours on plastic and stainless steel. However, the amount remaining of the original amounts applied was greatly reduced in the latter cases. The half-life was 5-6 hours., which means that after one day only about 5% of the original amount would remain.

The authors don't address this, but the stability would also depend on temperature (this study was run at 21-23 o C, basically, room temperature). Virus on some surface outside in the heat--particularly metal, which absorbs heat much more than say, plastic or cardboard--would degrade faster.

But it's reasonable to ask, how much virus is going to be on a surface? Someone who is positive doesn't have the virus on his hands, unless he coughs into his bare hand constantly. Or maybe picks at his nose, puts a finger in his mouth, something like that. Some virus floating in the air from positive people coughing or just breathing will get on a surface, but not very much, not in a very concentrated fashion. I'd think that asymptomatics, pre-symptomatics, or people with mild symptoms are even less likely than people with strong symptoms to have much virus on their hands. Finally, also keep in mind that however much virus might be on a surface, someone touching it only picks up some of it, and of what is picked up, only some of that is transferred to the face, and ultimately to the mouth or nose.

 

[Pricey_sky]

The situations in the supermarkets here in the UK seems to be getting better after the ridiculous hysteria and panic buying of a few weeks ago.

Did a big shop yesterday, the shelves of pasta, tinned produce and TP were still not full compared to usual, but there was enough there for everyone who needed them.

Meanwhile, as predicted, the waste disposal factories are reporting higher than average amounts of food waste being processed, as the idiot stockpilers have to chuck away items that are out of date.

 

[MartinGT]

Yeh i noticed that. Although still can't get eggs. Couldn't get bread on Sunday but should be find today.

The stockpiling waste was always going to happen. Most of the idiots can only cook beans on toast at a push let alone a proper meal you could freeze.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Austria seems to be handling the whole situation pretty well. For a few days in a row they've had less new infected than cured, so the total number of infected has been going down for a few days.

 

[Jagartrott]

Except for the Tirol local government, who put profit before health and caused a huge spread of the virus all over Europe. Anyway, Austria seems to be ahead of the bunch, so it'll be interesting to see them implement their exit strategy. Denmark as well. Belgium is seeing less and less hospitilizations, so I hope we'll follow suit. I think one of the first measures would be to reopen schools and a selection of shops and businesses other than supermarkets and pharmacies.

 

[Keram]

Fresh experience in supermarket here in Slovakia in smaller town. There is lack of fruits and vegetables currently. People want to live healthier right now it seems. There is enough other goods.

 

[jmdirt]

Except for the Tirol local government, who put profit before health and caused a huge spread of the virus all over Europe. Anyway, Austria seems to be ahead of the bunch, so it'll be interesting to see them implement their exit strategy. Denmark as well. Belgium is seeing less and less hospitilizations, so I hope we'll follow suit. I think one of the first measures would be to reopen schools and a selection of shops and businesses other than supermarkets and pharmacies.

IMO, reopening schools is definitely not a "first measure". Really , opening schools is probably one of the last steps of a recovery strategy. Schools are disease nightmares in the best of times.

 

[Mayomaniac]

IMO, reopening schools is definitely not a "first measure". Really , opening schools is probably one of the last steps of a recovery strategy. Schools are disease nightmares in the best of times.

Yes, but you need to have something like Schools or daycare in place when people start working away from home again.
About Tirol, they made mistakes at the start, but then they went on a stricter locdown than the national one. We in South Tyrol also made many mistakes, just closing the Ski resorts one week earlier would have made a big difference. In that period of time lots of people from northern Italy still went on a skiing trip and now we see the results, and not just in South Tyrol. A small town like Cortina has over 60 confirmed cases and in South Tyrol and Austria the main hotspots besides the biggest cities are those with big ski resorts. The Biathlon WC also helped spreading it all around Europe.

 

[Jagartrott]

IMO, reopening schools is definitely not a "first measure". Really , opening schools is probably one of the last steps of a recovery strategy. Schools are disease nightmares in the best of times.

It will be a first measure in Norway for instance. Phased reopening of schools and day cares is planned starting April 20. And it makes sense. Children are generally hardly affected by the virus, are thought to be less effective in transmitting it than adults, and parents cannot fulfill their jobs unless their children are taken care of.

 

[Koronin]

A friend of mine in Spain said that over the past 24 hours the number of both infections and deaths has unfortunately risen again.

 

[Jagartrott]

Tuesdays see more cases and deaths in many countries, due to 'weekend lag'. Don't focus too much on day to day variation, focus on the curve - that's still looking hopeful.