Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Cookster15]

It will be a first measure in Norway for instance. Phased reopening of schools and day cares is planned starting April 20. And it makes sense. Children are generally hardly affected by the virus, are thought to be less effective in transmitting it than adults, and parents cannot fulfill their jobs unless their children are taken care of.

I must admit I am very surprised that Europe is already relaxing restrictions since Europe seems the most severely affected region in the world. For example, you quote Norway as a success yet Norway is still recording more new cases than Australia and yet Australia is not even thinking about relaxing restrictions yet. Children will spread the virus whether they display symptoms or not.

In Australia everyone who can work from home is instructed to do so. Personally this is my 3rd week working from home. Strict social distancing laws mean police can question you taking a walk on the beach - we are all supposed to stay at home unless a good reason to be out e.g. buying food. These measures are why Australia has flattened the case curve but as soon as these measures are relaxed or people become complacent the case count will rise again. If the case count does not start to rise again in these European countries I will be very surprised.

 

[Cookster15]

A friend of mine in Spain said that over the past 24 hours the number of both infections and deaths has unfortunately risen again.

Official statistics are easy to find. Look at the Worldometer site. It does not confirm your friend's claim. Spain is still very bad but there is no confirmation of a rise in daily cases or deaths there (until April 6).

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The situations in the supermarkets here in the UK seems to be getting better after the ridiculous hysteria and panic buying of a few weeks ago.

Did a big shop yesterday, the shelves of pasta, tinned produce and TP were still not full compared to usual, but there was enough there for everyone who needed them.

Meanwhile, as predicted, the waste disposal factories are reporting higher than average amounts of food waste being processed, as the idiot stockpilers have to chuck away items that are out of date.

Well, I guess the thing is, the people who were crazy panic buying stockpilers already have enough of the stuff with long life so they don't need to shop for it, so now those who didn't go crazy are able to get to those goods without fighting as many people for them.

Fresh experience in supermarket here in Slovakia in smaller town. There is lack of fruits and vegetables currently. People want to live healthier right now it seems. There is enough other goods.

Not only will there be that desire to be more healthy and improve one's immune system, but I'd wager there's also an element of the above: fruit and vegetables are not conducive to stockpiling or panic buying; if people have panic bought a lot of tinned items, frozen items etc., then food which spoils easily will likely not have been touched by the stockpiling. The remainder of the people therefore may well have upped their intake of fruit and vegetables because of their availability, but also because they didn't sell out before, they won't have been replenished as urgently.

 

[BlueRoads]

I don't really understand the "let's open the schools first" approach, but a bunch of experts seems to recommend it. I remember being ill all the time when my son was in kindergarten - because he got those infections one after the other. I wonder whether there aren't any other measures that can be relaxed first. Well, I don't intend to say it's the wrong thing. I'm just surprised.

 

[Cookster15]

On the stability of the virus on surfaces, here's a fairly recent study:

https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32182409

The virus was viable after four hours on copper, 24 hr on cardboard, and 48-72 hours on plastic and stainless steel. However, the amount remaining of the original amounts applied was greatly reduced in the latter cases. The half-life was 5-6 hours., which means that after one day only about 5% of the original amount would remain.

The authors don't address this, but the stability would also depend on temperature (this study was run at 21-23 o C, basically, room temperature). Virus on some surface outside in the heat--particularly metal, which absorbs heat much more than say, plastic or cardboard--would degrade faster.

But it's reasonable to ask, how much virus is going to be on a surface? Someone who is positive doesn't have the virus on his hands, unless he coughs into his bare hand constantly. Or maybe picks at his nose, puts a finger in his mouth, something like that. Some virus floating in the air from positive people coughing or just breathing will get on a surface, but not very much, not in a very concentrated fashion. I's think that asymptomatics, pre-symptomatics, or people with mild symptoms are even less likely than people with strong symptoms to have much virus on their hands.

Thanks for this. A story in my local news media suggests the following for maximum survival times of the COVID-19 virus on various surfaces:
Air droplets 3 hours
Taps (copper etc) 4 hours
Non porous surfaces (doorknobs etc) 4 days
Cardboard 24 hours
Plastic 2-3 days
Glass (includes cell phones) 9 days!

 

[Cookster15]

Edit: Apprently in Australia authorities are now considering a long-term strategy to ease social-isolation restrictions and expose Australians to COVID-19 in manageable doses, without overwhelming the public health system, is being considered by the country’s chief health officials and some NSW (state) government ministers. As infection rates continue to fall across the country, the logic is suppression strategies may eventually be eased — if only slightly, and in a staggered form — as part of an effort to expose healthy Australians to the disease to lift immunity rates. But I am still surprised with Europe. How could you possibly consider lifting restrictions yet in Spain, Italy or Belgium for example?

 

[BlueRoads]

Thanks for this. A story in my local news media suggests the following for maximum survival times of the COVID-19 virus on various surfaces:
Air droplets 3 hours
Taps (copper etc) 4 hours
Non porous surfaces (doorknobs etc) 4 days
Cardboard 24 hours
Plastic 2-3 days
Glass (includes cell phones) 9 days!

It's still very unsure, but so far I think researchers have hardly been able to breed viable virus that could infect someone from these surface virus parts.

Okay, sorry. My English is too bad for this.

 

[Cookster15]

It's still very unsure, but so far I think researchers have hardly been able to breed viable virus that could infect someone from these surface virus parts.

Okay, sorry. My English is too bad for this.

Its a case of better to be safe than sorry - the precautionary principle. On Sunday out riding I had to stop for a water fill (yes we can still ride solo) . Unfortunately the tap handle was of the turn variety rather than one you can push with your arm or elbow. I hope I don't catch the virus from the tap handle I touched!

 

[postmanhat]

On the stability of the virus on surfaces, here's a fairly recent study:

https://sci-hub.tw/https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32182409

The virus was viable after four hours on copper, 24 hr on cardboard, and 48-72 hours on plastic and stainless steel. However, the amount remaining of the original amounts applied was greatly reduced in the latter cases. The half-life was 5-6 hours., which means that after one day only about 5% of the original amount would remain.

The authors don't address this, but the stability would also depend on temperature (this study was run at 21-23 o C, basically, room temperature). Virus on some surface outside in the heat--particularly metal, which absorbs heat much more than say, plastic or cardboard--would degrade faster.

But it's reasonable to ask, how much virus is going to be on a surface? Someone who is positive doesn't have the virus on his hands, unless he coughs into his bare hand constantly. Or maybe picks at his nose, puts a finger in his mouth, something like that. Some virus floating in the air from positive people coughing or just breathing will get on a surface, but not very much, not in a very concentrated fashion. I's think that asymptomatics, pre-symptomatics, or people with mild symptoms are even less likely than people with strong symptoms to have much virus on their hands.

Thanks. That's slightly worrying about cardboard. I work as a postman (mailman) and my main concern is the possibility of transmitting the virus to customers via parcel delivery. We now knock on peoples doors, leave the parcel on the doorstep, step two metres back and wait for them to open the door and collect it. Presumably something similar is happening in other countries? We can only hope that people are aware enough to wash their hands after handling the parcel and disposing of the packaging. I carry my own hand sanitiser, as we still haven't been given any by Royal Mail!

The indoor aspect of the job (the first 2-3 hours) is a dream environment for a virus. Extremely cramped, impossible to maintain social distancing, and after a couple of weeks, most people have given up trying too hard. Unfortunately, two postmen have already died in The UK due to Covid-19. They worked exclusively indoors

 

[jmdirt]

It will be a first measure in Norway for instance. Phased reopening of schools and day cares is planned starting April 20. And it makes sense. Children are generally hardly affected by the virus, are thought to be less effective in transmitting it than adults, and parents cannot fulfill their jobs unless their children are taken care of.

I agree with the importance of kids going to school to free up their parents to work (I discussed this a bit in a different conversation a few days ago), but this comes right back to the question of public health vs economy. If public health is our number one priority schools shouldn't open for...I don't know the date here...Sept? Vaccine?

I'm not convinced that children are less effective at transmitting (there's no real data here). The simple math is scary if one parent is exposed to SARS-Cov-2 at work (maybe via travel), transmits it to their kids who go to t school of 500+ kids, that's a 1000 more potential transitions, toss in 2+ parents who come into contact with those kids, possibly transmitting it to their work place, to other schools...it could very quickly become wave two.

*In all likelihood not all 1000 would transmit but...

 

[djpbaltimore]

Closing schools is another causation or association riddle. Did it help stop the exponential spread or was it just along for the ride. I posted the analysis waaayyyy upthread, but the epidemiologists did not think that closing schools would have a huge effect on disease transmission. Could be that kids were going to be meeting outside of school anyway, or that they are not great spreaders. Or maybe the newest data has changed the analysis. I don't see schools opening here before May at the earliest. It is a problem in Baltimore where distance learning is a bit harder than most places for city kids who lack basic amenities.

 

[Kaptain Kool]

Its a case of better to be safe than sorry - the precautionary principle. On Sunday out riding I had to stop for a water fill (yes we can still ride solo) . Unfortunately the tap handle was of the turn variety rather than one you can push with your arm or elbow. I hope I don't catch the virus from the tap handle I touched!

But you can't get the illness by touching it. Just don't touch your mouth, nose or eyes and wash up as soon as possible after. Don't touch the part of the water bottle that touches your mouth and wash the water bottle when you get home. Those are things people should do even pre-COVID 19. If you do that and even if you can't wash your hands before you get home, the risk is extremely small compared with close contact with an infected person.

 

[Cookster15]

Closing schools is another causation or association riddle. Did it help stop the exponential spread or was it just along for the ride. I posted the analysis waaayyyy upthread, but the epidemiologists did not think that closing schools would have a huge effect on disease transmission. Could be that kids were going to be meeting outside of school anyway, or that they are not great spreaders. Or maybe the newest data has changed the analysis. I don't see schools opening here before May at the earliest. It is a problem in Baltimore where distance learning is a bit harder than most places for city kids who lack basic amenities.

The precautionary principle should be applied. No huge effect is not no effect. Until your post I have not read anything anywhere that suggests children cannot spread the virus despite being asymptomatic. If you are aged 70+ would you feel confident seeing your grandkids who are going to school and mixing with the virus ? My kids are studying at home. Just as I am working at home.

 

[Cookster15]

But you can't get the illness by touching it. Just don't touch your mouth, nose or eyes and wash up as soon as possible after. Don't touch the part of the water bottle that touches your mouth and wash the water bottle when you get home. Those are things people should do even pre-COVID 19. If you do that and even if you can't wash your hands before you get home, the risk is extremely small compared with close contact with an infected person.

Of course but that is easier said than done. It only takes a momentary lapse in concentration and you just infected yourself.

 

[Koronin]

Official statistics are easy to find. Look at the Worldometer site. It does not confirm your friend's claim. Spain is still very bad but there is no confirmation of a rise in daily cases or deaths there (until April 6).

Thank you for the website. It's unfortunately still bad there, but it does appear the numbers she was talking about where possibly more local or she had some incorrect numbers. It looks like death numbers are slightly higher, but like Governor Cuomo said about deaths yesterday in the same range is a good sign of leveling off instead of increasing.

 

[Cookster15]

Thank you for the website. It's unfortunately still bad there, but it does appear the numbers she was talking about where possibly more local or she had some incorrect numbers. It looks like death numbers are slightly higher, but like Governor Cuomo said about deaths yesterday in the same range is a good sign of leveling off instead of increasing.

You are welcome. We all hope for the best. The lack of social interaction isn't much fun. And whilst my kids are being sent schoolwork, not being in class at their age isn't optimal for their learning.

 

[Koronin]

You are welcome. We all hope for the best. The lack of social interaction isn't much fun. And whilst my kids are being sent schoolwork, not being in class at their age isn't optimal for their learning.

Yes, I agree. It certainly isn't ideal and I'm more of an introvert but even introverts do feel it. I can't see it being optimal for kids at any age actually. One of the managers of a store I work at has 3 kids, the oldest just started college and he is struggling with it being on line instead of in the classroom. The younger two are adapting a little better.

 

[Merckx index]

Children are generally hardly affected by the virus, are thought to be less effective in transmitting it than adults

I don't think there's any evidence that children are more or less able to transmit.

It's still very unsure, but so far I think researchers have hardly been able to breed viable virus that could infect someone from these surface virus parts.

The studies use a cell culture model, so the virus is certainly capable of infecting, but yes, extrapolating that to in vivo with humans requires some caution.

A doctor in LA claims he's getting good results treating patients with a combo of HCQ and zinc:

"Every patient I've prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free," Cardillo told Eyewitness News. "So clinically I am seeing a resolution."

Cardillo is the CEO of Mend Urgent Care, which has locations in Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys and Burbank.

He said he has found it only works if combined with zinc. The drug, he said, opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication.

https://abc7.com/health/la-doctor-seeing-success-with-hydroxychloroquine-to-treat-covid-19/6079864/

It's pretty clear, though, that this is not a controlled study, so one obvious question is, how many of the patients he treated would have recovered, anyway? Also, HCQ is an ion channel blocker, I'm not sure where he's getting the idea that it opens channels for zine to get into the cells. Time will tell.

Edit: Now I see that there is evidence that chloroquine (not hydroxychloroquine) can stimulate Zn uptake into cells:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4182877/

There was a huge rise in the U.S. stock market Monday. Why? Analysts noted that the number of daily new cases in the U.S. fell for several days in a row, and apparently became convinced that we've hit the peak. There really weren't enough days to rule out random fluctuation. OTOH, since total cases are rising steadily, any small sustained decrease in absolute number of new cases means an even larger decrease in % rise. The rise does now seem to have been < 10% for a run of days, which is encouraging, but we've seen waxes and wanes in other countries, so I wouldn't start celebrating yet.

But this will undoubtedly strengthen the hand of those pushing for a re-opening of the economy soon. Top advisors Larry Kudlow and Steve Mnuchin are now saying they expect to re-open in 4-8 weeks. That's a little less than the 10 weeks that Fauci, Bill Gates, and some others have been recommending, but well beyond Trump's totally unrealistic Easter hope. The time should also depend on just how much of the economy opens, I wouldn't expect a totally back to normal situation. And really, when the economy does open, are people going to be dumb enough to congregate in churches? Maybe when faced with an actual life-and-death situation, people can stop pretending that churches are necessary in any sense that working meaningful jobs are.

For a starkly contrasting view, about as pessimistic as it gets:

Realistically, COVID-19 will be here for the next 18 months or more. We will not be able to return to normalcy until we find a vaccine or effective medications. I know that's dreadful news to hear. How are people supposed to find work if this goes on in some form for a year and a half? Is all that economic pain worth trying to stop COVID-19? The truth is we have no choice.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/v..._for_12-18_months_until_theres_a_vaccine.html

 

[hrotha]

Thank you for the website. It's unfortunately still bad there, but it does appear the numbers she was talking about where possibly more local or she had some incorrect numbers.

In my experience, that website (which is awesome) isn't always completely up to date. While the number of new contagions has kept dropping, there has been a very slight increase in deaths. Probably not too significant, though - we should look at normalized data over 3-5 days to smooth out semi-random variations.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Zinc? Sounds suspiciously convenient to give certain people a way to move the goalposts. This kind of routine was a staple of the anti-vax scene. 'Ok, MMR doesn't cause autism, but did you try it with XXXX'. I am not an ion channel scientist, but it seems like there would be a better way to get it into cells.

 

[Merckx index]

Zinc? Sounds suspiciously convenient to give certain people a way to move the goalposts. This kind of routine was a staple of the anti-vax scene. 'Ok, MMR doesn't cause autism, but did you try it with XXXX'. I am not an ion channel scientist, but it seems like there would be a better way to get it into cells.

Definitely moving the goalposts, but Zn can inhibit replication of rhinoviruses, and that link I posted claimed that it enhanced the toxicity of CQ against a cancer cell line. I haven't seen any follow-up of this, though.

Here's an interesting way to show why one must be skeptical of any single study, though. Suppose one hundred doctors each treated half a dozen C19 patients with HCQ/Zn. Almost all of them found no effect, and many/most of them didn't bother reporting the negative results. Meanwhile, one doctor found that all six of his patients improved. With no controls, we don't know how many would have improved without treatment, but in a group of one hundred doctors, it wouldn't be surprising if at least one found that all six patients he treated improved just by chance, even if in fact the treatment wasn't the reason.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Agree that the zinc basic research is sound enough. The TeeVee News show that rhymes with profanity has been mentioning zinc for a while. Read a letter one night to his audience saying that 500 patients had taken the triple cocktail with Zn/ Cqn/ az and none were hospitalized.

 

[ThePirate81]

View: https://youtu.be/U7F1cnWup9M

Chloroquine and zinc treatment explained.

 

[jmdirt]

Has anyone else received the video email showing how beautiful Wuhan is? I had seen some of the architecture before but its a nice reminder that just because there are still wet markets in the country, its a very modern city/area (in many ways anyway).

 

[Merckx index]

Chloroquine and zinc treatment explained.

This is one of the best links I've seen in this entire thread. Superb explanation.

Here's another promising drug that has shown effectiveness vs. SARS-CoV-2 in animals. It's a ribonucleotide analog, and basically works by creating mutations in the viral RNA that render it unable to function: I would worry about effects on host cell RNA, but they ran an experiment showing no effects there.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.19.997890v1.full.pdf