Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[BlueRoads]

Who would try to catch the virus ? And how would you catch the virus ? The Emirates trial is a work-around to get international travel working until a vaccine is found.

Well, there is a discussion around here regarding an immunity passport, which sounds clever at the very first sight. In Germany there are strong constitutional concerns (mostly because it turns around the maxime >freedom=normal, restrictions have to be justified<), but also I find it quite convincing that people who think the virus is not dangerous to them, will think they have nothing to fear but only to gain by not being careful anymore, because then they are allowed to travel, visit places, people...

 

[djpbaltimore]

Secondary effects... I already spoke about malaria, this article is about tuberculosis. I think covid response is demonstrating a very 'first world viewpoint'.

Millions predicted to develop tuberculosis as result of Covid-19 lockdown
https://www.theguardian.com/global-deve ... 9-lockdown

“I have to say we look from the TB community in a sort of puzzled way because TB has been around for thousands of years,” Ditiu said. “For 100 years we have had a vaccine and we have two or three potential vaccines in the pipeline. We need around half a billion [people] to get the vaccine by 2027 and we look in amazement on a disease that … is 120 days old and it has 100 vaccine candidates in the pipeline. So I think this world, sorry for my French, is really *** up,” she said.

Polio eradication efforts have also been hindered by the outbreaks.

“The fear we have in the community is that researchers are heading towards just developing a vaccine for Covid. That’s on the agenda of everyone now and very few remain focused on the others [diseases]. We don’t have a vaccine for TB, we don’t have a vaccine for HIV, we don’t have a vaccine for malaria and out of all this, TB is the oldest. So why this reaction? I think because we are a world of idiots. What can I say?”

Just for more context, it is not for lack of trying that we don't have good vaccines for these three pathogens. There are hurdles that go well beyond funding and attention. I don't think HIV will ever have an effective vaccine. Malaria has a good candidate, but it is nearly impossible to make at scale with current technology. There is a candidate TB vaccine that was found to be partially protective in phase IIb trials in Africa in 2019. Further clinical development of this vaccine is a big issue and would be an issue regardless of COVID19. Before the outbreak, it was not thought that phase III would start before 2022. Funding priorities have always been F-ed up. COVID19 might be revealing that a bit more, but it did not create them.

https://www.who.int/tb/areas-of-work/research/meeting_report_m72_vaccine.pdf?ua=1

 

[Unchained]

Herd immunity requires a herd..so from what I have read @75-80% of us need to get Covid-19 for the broad wash.
San Diego announced yesterday that there will be 4 locations opened to test all without the necessity of symptoms or doctor's referral. I called the 211 phone number to set an appointment..not sure I have the phone battery to wait it out.
grocery stores are mostly stocked with the conspicuous absence of most paper products and zero moist disinfectant towels.
And overall year to date data..2 and 7ft oxygen cannula. sales are up @300+ %.at our company..overall sales down slightly.
I have started my unofficial job as a beer importer to Mexico..the motorcycle doesn't allow large scale and because it is friends and family I am not doing price gouging..but I have thought about it.
Surfing is starting to open up..right now SD beaches have limited use..you can walk and exercise but pitching a towel out is off limits.

Mexicans Celebrate Cinco De Mayo At Home And With No Beer

Not only public celebrations of Mexico's Cinco de Mayo have been canceled, but families have to mark the holiday without beer — it is not on the list of essential products during the pandemic.

www.npr.org

 

[djpbaltimore]

I really can't overstate this. If you are in America and are heading back to work, you need to protect yourself.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258030785665421315

View: https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1258030785665421315

 

[jmdirt]

Thanks for all your replies regarding masks!

I thought about your post again last night:
-Prior to C19 I had never noticed masks that loop around the ears, now that's mostly what I see.
-I think that you can buy or make something that would be less uncomfortable.
-A 'nose clip' is an important part because it can do some of the 'work' to hold the mask up so that the ear/head straps don't have to be so tight.

Here is a strap to keeps the loops off of you ears (there are similar products on www stores):

Weiterleitungshinweis

This type of thing will be on store checkout end caps soon.

 

[Keram]

How do they get to 4-5% immunity based on these results? Also, with only a couple of hundreds of covid-deaths (let's say 500), assuming a mortality of 0.5%, you would get to c. 100.000 infections or about 1% of the population.

The Guardian:
Immunity to Covid-19 is only building very slowly in the Czech Republic and probably does not cover more than 4-5% of the population, the country’s health ministry has said.
The preliminary figures came from a mass testing for antibodies that started in April, the ministry added.
According to figures compiled by John Hopkins University, there have been 7,896 confirmed cases and 257 Covid-19 deaths so far in Czech Republic. The country, which has a population of 10.7 million, was one of the swiftest in Europe to impose curbs on travel and border crossings and shut most shops and restaurants in March.
The preliminary results from the study found immunity levels were likely lower in the two biggest cities of Prague and Brno. Overall, it found 107 positive cases after testing 26,549, making it one of the largest studies in Europe. The study estimated the number of people infected by the virus but not showing symptoms could range from 27-38%.

https://www.idnes.cz/zpravy/domaci/...-tiskova-konference.A200505_152026_domaci_knn

It states that imunnity is few per thousand. In most exposed localities up to 5%. In slovak news I heard that number of cases is 2,3 x higher so basically about 15 000 -20 000. But I have not source. I dont know about reliability of tests.

 

[GVFTA]

I really can't overstate this. If you are in America and are heading back to work, you need to protect yourself.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258030785665421315

View: https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1258030785665421315

This has been widely reported here (CO) as a what not to do warning. Not sure what the difference for potential exposure was then and now, but these companies violated the order in late March, early April after an order issued March 28 I believe. You point is taken though.

 

[djpbaltimore]

This data set is from college, but I think the trend will hold true for most school age kids too. The marginal student will be hurt the most by school closures. Many of the best students need no more instruction than telling them what section to read in the book. There will be arguments about whether or not in-class instruction should ever return at the university level. It was discussed upthread. I think technology complements classroom activity, but it is a poor replacement of it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258028314763067394

View: https://twitter.com/matt_barnum/status/1258028314763067394

 

[BlueRoads]

I thought about your post again last night:
-Prior to C19 I had never noticed masks that loop around the ears, now that's mostly what I see.
-I think that you can buy or make something that would be less uncomfortable.
-A 'nose clip' is an important part because it can do some of the 'work' to hold the mask up so that the ear/head straps don't have to be so tight.

Here is a strap to keeps the loops off of you ears (there are similar products on www stores):

Weiterleitungshinweis

This type of thing will be on store checkout end caps soon.

Thank you very much, jm!

 

[jmdirt]

This data set is from college, but I think the trend will hold true for most school age kids too. The marginal student will be hurt the most by school closures. Many of the best students need no more instruction than telling them what section to read in the book. There will be arguments about whether or not in-class instruction should ever return at the university level. It was discussed upthread. I think technology complements classroom activity, but it is a poor replacement of it.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258028314763067394

View: https://twitter.com/matt_barnum/status/1258028314763067394

There is data out there for pre-C19 digital vs. building leaning.

Sample size of 1: I think that I shared this at some point in this thread, but even in my post grad work I learned more when I was in a room full of my peers. Can that be replicated via a conference platform (Google Meet, Zoom, Face Time, Skype...)? Maybe?

We could also dig into, "what is learning?". Is learning simply reading a section in a book? Reflecting on that reading? Discussing that reading? Rethinking that reading after a discussion? Applying that reading?

I agree 100% with your last statement.

 

[Oldermanish]

I really can't overstate this. If you are in America and are heading back to work, you need to protect yourself.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258030785665421315

View: https://twitter.com/mckaycoppins/status/1258030785665421315

The only justice when businesses do this is to be forced to cover each employee's personal and family medical coverage as well as sick leave for several years. What fu*king medieval mindset allows an employer to do this and what kind of sheep follow the directive? It would be interesting to see the contact tracing impact of this sort of idiocy.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The businesses were not made public. I have feeling that they would be out of business in short order if revealed. Utah has been relatively spared by COVID19, allowing contact tracing to identify these hotspots. Considering that contact tracing is practically non-existent in most places, the vast majority of businesses that are doing the same elsewhere will escape scrutiny. Hold the threat of a job over someone's head and they will often make poor decisions.

 

[Merckx index]

A friend of mine called my attention to Asian flu, which I lived through and remember, but hadn't thought about much. It also originated in China, and had a mortality rate of 0.67%, in the range of, very possibly greater than, estimates for C19. As is the case with C19, the elderly, and people with some other conditions, relating to the heart and lungs, were at greatest risk, but also pregnant women. The best estimate seems to be that it killed 116,000 Americans, though the number 70,000 is also thrown out. But keep in mind, the population of the country then was about half of what it is now.

Many of the things we're hearing now, such as concerns over the economy--the Dow Jones dropped 15%--were raised back then, but there were no lockdowns (though some businesses and schools were closed in the UK). One reason may have been because the symptoms were treatable to some extent with antibiotics (apparently, secondary bacterial infections were a major problem). Another reason, though, and I find this remarkable, is that a vaccine was quickly developed. Keep in mind that all the researchers have been saying it would take a year to a year and a half to develop a vaccine for C19, and even that would be far and away a record. A vaccine for Asian flu was developed--and this was back in 1957--within three months, and large-scale application of it began within five months. My best guess as to how this was possible is that at that time there weren't strict rules about how large and how long trials had to be. But it took a while for the vaccine to become available for everyone, with the result that a second, deadlier wave occurred in early 1958.

The virus responsible gradually weakened, but (some of its sequence, or genes) returned in another pandemic, the Hong Kong flu, in 1968, The mortality rate and total number of deaths from the HK flu were no worse than for the Asian flu, possibly because of some cross-immunity developed from survivors of the earlier flu. But it's generally considered the second worse pandemic of the 20th century, after the Spanish flu, with Asian flu third.

 

[djpbaltimore]

It was the Wild West back then. Salk tested his vaccine initially in mentally handicapped children. Prisoners were another popular set of guinea pigs for Sabin. I think people learned to be a little more careful after the RSV vaccine debacle in the 60s where it made the disease worse.

 

[Koronin]

I think the other issue with a vaccine before late fall early 2021 is simply enough supply. We may have an approved vaccine by fall, but the supply won't be sufficient for anything more than trying to vaccinate populations where there is a hot spot.

 

[Merckx index]

Merkel says Germany is ready to open to almost normal this month. Even the Bundesliga will play, though with no spectators.

https://www.afp.com/en/news/3954/germany-accelerates-return-normality-doc-1r04yb5

 

[search]

Merkel says Germany is ready to open to almost normal this month. Even the Bundesliga will play, though with no spectators.

https://www.afp.com/en/news/3954/germany-accelerates-return-normality-doc-1r04yb5

I think most of it was not her decision, but yeah, parts of Germany are making a big step on from Monday. Where I live, almost everything is opening again. Restaurants, Gyms, even theme parks and stuff.

 

[Eyeballs Out]

There was a UK documentary this week that included a segment on the Oxford Uni vaccine trial. Over 1000 healthy volunteers in the trial, half in the trial vaccine group, half in control group. One problem they have in testing efficacy is that the better the country does against the virus, the worse it is for their study. For example, the more stringent the lockdown measures the longer it is going to take for either group to get sufficient exposure to the virus. No chance of proving efficacy unless enough volunteers in the control group test +ve for covid

 

[djpbaltimore]

I've heard that these are smaller and easier to mass produce than antibodies, which are difficult to produce. That is one reason why Humira costs so much. They should also better penetrate the tissues, but they do have a much shorter half-life and I would worry about serum sickness. Interesting more for the future than COVID19 IMO.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1258105499611877376

View: https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1258105499611877376

 

[Oldermanish]

It was the Wild West back then. Salk tested his vaccine initially in mentally handicapped children. Prisoners were another popular set of guinea pigs for Sabin. I think people learned to be a little more careful after the RSV vaccine debacle in the 60s where it made the disease worse.

It was the Wild West back then. Salk tested his vaccine initially in mentally handicapped children. Prisoners were another popular set of guinea pigs for Sabin. I think people learned to be a little more careful after the RSV vaccine debacle in the 60s where it made the disease worse.

Speaking of wild West....health officials revealed some local intellects conducted a Coronavirus Party in Walla Walla, Washington State, USA. I think several dozen infected, one fatality.
And today the US suspended information from the CDC on a national forum as someone has deemed the opening of States is the responsibility of each Governor. Oh, a direct servant to the Prez tested positive; details on the pending 14 day Presidential quarantine have not been confirmed.

 

[Koronin]

Disney is planning on reopening their park in Shanghai is supposed to reopen on May 11th. That will be interesting to follow along with all the things reopening in Germany. I'm paying attention to how it's working in Germany for the museums and zoos.

 

[djpbaltimore]

I think I understand the current prevailing mindset better here in the USA after watching the Muir interview. If you think that every country is cooking the books and has failed to control the virus, our policies look rational. If you don't, they look psychopathic.

It is crazy to see the TV news personalities talk from their comfy home studios about how young people need to go out and get infected. I mentioned some time ago that USA was flirting with trying a herd immunity strategy. Best of wishes to everybody, we have arrived at that point.

"Now that we are learning more, herd immunity is our friend. Healthy people getting out there -- they are going to have to have some courage."

 

[Jagartrott]

The first person in Belgium, who was infected (in Wuhan) and was asymptomatic, has now no covid antibodies in his blood. This is anecdotal perhaps, but it seems to indicate that immunity is not guaranteed and/or limited in time.

An antibody test across Belgium (c. 3500 samples) suggests that around mid-April, about 6% (i.e. 650.000 people) had covid antibodies.

 

[hrotha]

The first person in Belgium, who was infected (in Wuhan) and was asymptomatic, has now no covid antibodies in his blood. This is anecdotal perhaps, but it seems to indicate that immunity is not guaranteed and/or limited in time.

Do you have a link to that? I'd be interested in sharing this.

 

[djpbaltimore]

The half life for IgG is about 21 days. Once the antigen is cleared, antibody starts to wane. It is quite a bit more involved to detect whether there are memory T and B cells in the people who have recovered. Just one more mystery that scientists lack a good answer for.