It's hard to say.
My point is societies across the globe can not only be concerned with COVID. In the US we saw crazy stuff happen because of bad info right off the bat. Only COVID related hospitalizations causing all sorts of necessary procedures to be postponed including on-going cancer treatments.
If we want to ignore the dangers of kids being ordered out of the classroom then we do so at our own peril. In other words, if COVID considerations override every decision we make then those decisions are very likely to nothing short of catastrophic.
I have read several, maybe as many as 10 of the various articles from non-school child professionals as well as about the same number from school professionals.
So let's say that no kids get sick. What you are saying is that thousands of dead adults is a good trade off for kids not being a year behind (but alive none-the-less). Now add in that some kids will get sick and some will die. I'll take a year behind over dead any day.
I also take issue with the emphasis on abused children as a focus argument for rushing back to school.
-Less than 1% of kids are abused yearly (its probably under reported so double it, 2%).
-The highest rate of abuse happens to children under one year of age (don't attend school so opening won't help them).
So we are pushing to open schools to protect 2% while risking 98% PLUS all of the adults?
-Note: Boise schools is continuing to run "at risk" camps for these kids as well as feeding thousands more. They do this in the summer C19 or not.
So yes, C19 should be the number one factor in making decisions. Death is the most catastrophic result IMO.
Other RE: to you post: "across the globe"--certainly some decision will be made on a global level, but we are talking about opening local schools.
While I understand that you are trying to speak to a broader range of decision making, talking about people choosing not to have elective procedures has nothing to do with opening schools. But on that topic, our two hospitals did not cancel life saving procedures ever*, and by May were doing things like joint replacements again. I think that more areas of the country were in that boat than the one you describe. The hospitals weren't stopping the procedures, the people were opting out. It is an terrifying conundrum for people though.
* I know several personally: neighbor who had quad-bypass in May, colleague of wife open heart in April, colleague of mine chemo all along, spouse of colleague dialyses all along (and scheduled for transplant this summer).