Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Koronin]

A colleague asked me this morning: "since I already had Covid in June I won't need the vaccine...right?" My reply: "ask an epidemiologist". I followed with: "I assume that they will recommend that you still get the vaccine."

I do wonder though, if someone had a great enough immune response, do you need to get the vaccine in the spring? I know they really can't know if immunity lasts for a year because they don't have that data yet. We will have a small sample test from a lady here at work. She was traveling for work (Asia locations) in March, returned home, and was really sick with Covid for about 20 days. She is now taking care of her husband who has a pretty severe case so we'll see if she has immunity. (Interesting note to this, he didn't get it from her in March/April).

They should have some preliminary data on if the vaccine lasts a year or not by April at least for Moderna as they started their very first human tests (safety tests) in March and I think Pfizer started those in May. As for someone who had it, it appears the only thing they are sure of is that antibodies disappear after a few months. Also remember you can get reinfected as Ganna has shown us.

 

[jmdirt]

They should have some preliminary data on if the vaccine lasts a year or not by April at least for Moderna as they started their very first human tests (safety tests) in March and I think Pfizer started those in May. As for someone who had it, it appears the only thing they are sure of is that antibodies disappear after a few months. Also remember you can get reinfected as Ganna has shown us.

My understanding is that the severity of your Covid/immune response determines your protection level/duration. So a mild case/response might not lead to much immunity.

 

[Castman]

6 million Americans flew for Thanksgiving holiday. 800,000+ with zip codes in the NYC area. Where is all the outrage? Crickets from the most vocal as usual.

 

[djpbaltimore]

Which was about a 70% decrease from normal X-giving volume, so that is relatively good news. But how safely people acted over those 4 days will become apparent over the next couple weeks. I'm not optimistic.

There will be guidance about whether to the get the vaccine if you have had COVID-19. But, I imagine jmdirt is probably correct and that the recommendation will be to still get the vaccine.

Cross your fingers on this one.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1333521470811738115

View: https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1333521470811738115

 

[Koronin]

My understanding is that the severity of your Covid/immune response determines your protection level/duration. So a mild case/response might not lead to much immunity.

It does appear that way, however, even those who were hospitalized it appears eventually lose the antibodies. They just have them longer. Hopefully they'll be able to get some information on if there is T and B? cell protection for those who have had it at some point.

 

[Chris Gadsden]

6 million Americans flew for Thanksgiving holiday. 800,000+ with zip codes in the NYC area. Where is all the outrage? Crickets from the most vocal as usual.

Just wait until Gov Cuomo gets this news. I'm only left to wonder if the 600k in the NYC area purchased one-way fares...

 

[Castman]

Just wait until Gov Cuomo gets this news. I'm only left to wonder if the 600k in the NYC area purchased one-way fares...

Hopefully none to my little part of the world.

 

[Swamp Holland]

6 million Americans flew for Thanksgiving holiday. 800,000+ with zip codes in the NYC area. Where is all the outrage? Crickets from the most vocal as usual.

Need some solid data with cell phone hot spots tracking. But this is all politics and not covid.

 

[BroDeal]

Just wait until Gov Cuomo gets this news. I'm only left to wonder if the 600k in the NYC area purchased one-way fares...

Cuomo probably put the baggage return in the old folks homes.

 

[BroDeal]

Listing Uber as a success story is...... interesting. 'Blindly' is also doing quite a bit of heavy lifting in that sentence.

Whether Uber's business model ultimately pans out is irrelevant to the point. Uber changed the world. That was done by not stopping to make sure laws that govern taxis apply. It is easier to apologize than it is to get permission. That's how lots of Americans roll. Blind or not, there is a significant portion of the population that will resist following authority if it inconveniences them in the slightest. It is a strength and a weakness. A large part of the new media using the pandemic as a pretext to attack Trump just makes things worse.

 

[Merckx index]

Should isolation periods be shorter for people with COVID-19?

People with COVID-19 are most infectious about two days before symptoms begin and for five days afterward, according to a new analysis of previous research.

www.japantimes.co.jp

What a surprise. What I was saying months ago, based on numerous studies, that blows apart the claim that NY nursing home deaths were the result of patient transfers. Speaking of NY:

Deaths per million, since end of May:

NY: 206
Sweden: 203

But NY has a population density more than 6 times that of Sweden.

 

[Castman]

What a surprise. What I was saying months ago, based on numerous studies, that blows apart the claim that NY nursing home deaths were the result of patient transfers. Speaking of NY:

Deaths per million, since end of May:

NY: 206
Sweden: 203

But NY has a population density more than 6 times that of Sweden.

NYC deaths:
19.9 / 10,000

Looks like they did everything perfect.

 

[Merckx index]

Very deadly for the elderly with pre-existing conditions and far less of a problem for those under 70 (99.95% survival rate for under 70 and less deadly than the seasonal flu for children).

That's like saying the survival rate for a human being is 99.50%. It depends on age. People from 60-70 and 50-60 have a considerably lower survival rate than 99.95%.

And while more children die of seasonal, flu, that's because the number infected is much higher than is the case for C19. The CFR for under 17 is several times higher for C19. It's higher for all age groups.

 

[movingtarget]

Experts warn of coronavirus surge after widespread Thanksgiving travel

More than 100,000 Covid cases a day over holiday weekend as Moderna Covid vaccine has 94% efficacy, final results confirm

www.theguardian.com

 

[Chris Gadsden]

Cuomo probably put the baggage return in the old folks homes.

Nah, he did the best job of any Governor anywhere. Just ask Fredo. I mean, over 34,000 dead.. more than 1,700 per million in NY. But Cuomo bent the curve.

 

[Unchained]

Chris..you and I are missing each other completely..but I fear you are intent on it..is Native American death and destruction important..yes,today and always..again no need absolutely none for the binary choice of pay attention to Covid 19 in Native populations..and nothing else!! I know you are saying it for effect,but it's ineffective..people are chewing gum and walking, multitasking is life not a special political skill.
Our banter is BS..a straw man Superbowl of zilch..the only issue..@275000 Americans dead..more at grave risk..the numbers are the numbers..the only issue is if the numbers of dead represent suffering and failure..or it's no big deal..
So before you go..gun in your mouth..loss of livelihood or liberty..go American..think,research a dead person and ask the family if it's no big deal..it is what it is..and get back to me. Dead Americans is a serious matter..or it should be..
Sounds kind of gut punch,sort of hopeless..need an inspirational recharge? Listen to this woman..if she doesn't know what she is talking about..academy award..@7:30 in

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iEUrLwNTmNM

 

[Unchained]

There are brilliant minds stifled by stupid..put on your seatbelt..and if you are humbled by humble junk? Lots are women.. If you were scared by smart women before you better get under your bed and hide..this time brightest and best is going to hold some water..

 

[hrotha]

WW2 only killed 0.34% of Americans so I guess that was also a minor event.
Also, it's very dangerous to disregard the many sequelae associated with covid.

 

[Swamp Holland]

Which was about a 70% decrease from normal X-giving volume, so that is relatively good news. But how safely people acted over those 4 days will become apparent over the next couple weeks. I'm not optimistic.

There will be guidance about whether to the get the vaccine if you have had COVID-19. But, I imagine jmdirt is probably correct and that the recommendation will be to still get the vaccine.

Cross your fingers on this one.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1333521470811738115

View: https://twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1333521470811738115

What are we crossing fingers on?
There is no way New Yorkers and East Coasters could be that inconsiderate?

 

[Swamp Holland]

That's like saying the survival rate for a human being is 99.50%. It depends on age. People from 60-70 and 50-60 have a considerably lower survival rate than 99.95%.

And while more children die of seasonal, flu, that's because the number infected is much higher than is the case for C19. The CFR for under 17 is several times higher for C19. It's higher for all age groups.

How many 15-24 age group have died from covid since the USA started keeping numbers?

 

[djpbaltimore]

For ages 15-24.

COVID-19 deaths= 428
Influenza deaths= 55

Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by Sex and Age | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov. Deaths involving COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by sex, age group, and jurisdiction of occurrence.

data.cdc.gov

 

[Swamp Holland]

For ages 15-24.

COVID-19 deaths= 428
Influenza deaths= 55

Provisional COVID-19 Deaths by Sex and Age | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Effective September 27, 2023, this dataset will no longer be updated. Similar data are accessible from wonder.cdc.gov. Deaths involving COVID-19, pneumonia, and influenza reported to NCHS by sex, age group, and jurisdiction of occurrence.

data.cdc.gov

Looking at those death numbers- what's up with Pneumonia at 566.

Total deaths are 28,020 so maybe we need to look hard at swimming pools and automobiles after this covid 19 is over.

Schools are closed and demonstrations and riots are essential?

 

[djpbaltimore]

Data from the outbreak in Indiana supporting what I said yesterday. You really can't protect the elderly in the middle of a pandemic. At least, Indiana has shown that they couldn't. Rising tides lift all boats.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1333756322949554179

View: https://twitter.com/gbosslet/status/1333756322949554179


This thread is relevant to the study that showed an earlier than expected appearance of COVID-19 antibodies in Italy. It just doesn't add up and probably is due to the assay specificity not being totally reliable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1333647437869633537

View: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1333647437869633537

 

[Castman]

States have until Friday to request the number of vaccines they think they need. California has stated they need 10 million (25 percent of available). This is going to be comical.

 

[Castman]

States have until Friday to request the number of vaccines they think they need. California has stated they need 10 million (25 percent of available). This is going to be comical.

Newsome now saying that he expects California to get 327,000 doses. How things can change in 24 hours.