It seems like Cuomo is not satisfied with the number of elderly he killed in old folks homes
Totally false, as was thoroughly discussed earlier on this thread. Of all the pandemic myths that have circulated in the press, this is the one probably most widely accepted by liberals as well as conservatives, while also, ironically, one of the most easily rebutted by science.
Another grim milestone today, > 300,000 cases. I didn't think it was going to get this bad. That could mean as many 5000 deaths in a day in a few weeks.
First we had one in a thousand people dead. Now we have one in a thousand people positive in a single day, and that is considerably less than the actual number of infected. Maybe as many as 1.5 million, which means that at any one time, there are about ten million people in the country who are infectious. About one in thirty. Think about that, next time you're out in public. Most of those people aren't hospitalized, which is good news, but a corollary is that most of them are walking around, ready to spread the virus to someone else.
Speaking of which, that guy who broke into Pelosi's office, and was photographed while sitting at her desk, has predictably become one of the first to be arrested. What I find interesting, and relevant to this thread, is that he was arrested in Arkansas, about 1000 miles from D.C., where he apparently resides, on Friday morning. He was in the Capitol at least until Wednesday evening. He might have driven all day Thursday to get back home--i know it's possible, because I myself have driven 1000 miles in a day--but it's much more likely he, and certainly many of the protesters, flew to and from D.C. So in addition to breaking into the Capitol, they spread the virus at a time when it's surging at record levels, at a time when all health officials were urging people not to travel.
Chris has pointed out that BLM protesters were ignoring pandemic advice, and I have agreed with him on that. But at least most of them wore masks, and most of them were locals, who didn't have to fly to take part in the marches. Most of these yahoos didn't wear masks-- that's evident from the pictures--so it was an ideal spreading event, then they take the virus with them to all parts of the country.
Fact of the matter is this: proponents of the lab leak theory depend on the idea of the coronavirus leaping from animals to humans as being improbable – which it’s not. In 2018, the same Shi Zhengli published a
paper that reported the results of a serological study conducted of 218 residents in four villages in Yunnan. These villages were located near caves where Shi and her colleagues had sampled bat coronaviruses closely related to SARS-CoV-1. They discovered that six people, or about 2.7 percent of the sample, had antibodies for these coronaviruses, which suggests they had previously been infected.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s12250-018-0012-7
Bat coronaviruses are massively under-sampled. We know about a handful of them, but there are thousands more we haven’t even discovered yet. It is perfectly possible that there are bats that carry an even closer relative of SARS-CoV-2, it’s just that scientists have not stumbled upon them yet. Much more likely that the coronavirus is the result of naturally occurring zoonotic species jump, or that the virus has evolved in humans over time without being noticed and gradually becoming more infectious (which can explain why numerous countries are now finding evidence of COVID-19 existing in numerous frozen serum samples, sewage, etc much earlier than previously thought).
I agree with much of this, and in fact, we discussed much of it upthread, where I pointed out that we missed a great opportunity possibly to find the more immediate precursor of SARS=CoV-2 when a project to sequence more of these viruses was shelved. It's very likely that the virus jumped from some species to humans.
That said, the evidence that the virus was around much longer than just from Nov. 2019 or so is not very good, and a question yet unanswered is how the outbreak started in Wuhan, which is about 1300 km from Yunnan, where most of the horseshoe bats are found. If someone was infected by a bat--or more likely, some other species that became infected by the bat--one would have expected cases to appear first far from Wuhan. I understand there is a main train station in the city that's not far from the market, so maybe someone infected from the province happened to get off there. It's also possible, as you mention, that a less infectious and sickening form of the virus first infected humans, and evolved to SARS-CoV-2 when it reached a high density population center like Wuhan. But it's questions like this that fuel the discussion of an alternative explanation.
By the way, Matt Pottinger, Deputy National Security Advisor who was one of the first Administration officials to resign following the storming of the Capitol, has been pushing the lab accident theory among the U.S. intelligence community.
The WIV is a joint collaboration between China and France, and has been certified by officials in both countries, as well as by the International Organization for Standardization. The French government, which has the most knowledge of and experience with the WIV, has
stated there is "no factual evidence corroborating the information recently circulating in the United States press that establishes a link between the origins of Covid-19 and the work of the P4 laboratory of Wuhan, China."
Well, sure, but there is no factual evidence that establishes a link between C19 and any particular animal species, either. The bat virus RaTG13 has very high overall homology to SARS-CoV-2, suggesting it could have evolved further, either in bats or in another species, but just as there is nothing but speculation that RaTG13 could have been modified in a laboratory, there is also nothing but speculation that it evolved further in the wild. As I said before, unless we find a naturally-occurring species with SARS-COV-2, or a sequence closer to that than RaTG13, we have no way of knowing.
Chinese scientists were lucky with the first SARS virus, in that there was direct evidence leading them to civets. No such break exists for SARS-CoV-2.