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Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

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J

jmdirt

Dec 6, 2013
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Cannavaro said:
The vaccination campaign in Germany is a total disaster. You have coverage rates as low as 55% for the age group 60+ in some states (source). Compare that to the 97% coverage rate of the 65+age group in Flanders which Jagartrott posted yesterday (even the more hesitating french speaking people in Belgium reach around 80% in this age group now).
In part this low coverage in Germany is due to a more complicated priority system. In Belgium they basically descend through the age groups, added the medical sector in the beginning and now slide in people with comorbidities before descending through the age groups again. In Germany you have also teachers which are prioritized. But then again why do they prioritize teachers? It is not that they are crowding the hospitals. They are not even more exposed to the virus than others! There is a Belgian study about that and in Belgium the schools were always open! In Germany they are most of the time closed.
Yesterday I read a story at the website of the second largest German news channel ZDF that parents should prioritized so that their children can go to school / kindergarten. I mean that are the people with the most robust immune system, both children and parents. And pupils are not more exposed to the virus anyway, according to a study in Belgium where schools were always open.
I think there is a bad miscommunication in Germany. In Belgium it is basically: The old and vulnerable people should be vaccinated so that the young people (and of course the old people too) can be free again. Relaxation of rules is even connected to coverage rates of vulnerable groups. In Germany it is basically. You should be vaccinated so that you can be free again. Maybe this approach works better to motivate the people in Germany which seems to hesitate a lot to get vaccinated. But I hate it so much!
Click to expand...
I can't speak for your officials reasoning, but Idaho officials reasoned that if teachers are vaccinated they will be more willing to have their students back in the buildings. Boise schools have been back in school full time since mid January. Before that they were alternating days (1/2 of the students, every-other day) in the buildings. As a precaution they let out for Thanksgiving and didn't come back to school until they went full in mid January (I think that they had on-line school in Dec.). The states largest school district, Meridian/West Ada, which bumps up against Boise, had a pretty similar approach for the most part.
 
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movingtarget

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jmdirt said:
Viral/Bacterial warfare isn't new.
Click to expand...
No but I think they are trying to say that an accidental release from a lab is not unlikely with the research they have been pursuing. Even some Chinese scientists have hinted at as much, maybe ones that live outside China now................the lack of full disclosure about the outbreak from the Chinese is still creating doubts in some scientific circles as much as the WHO want to tone that thinking down.
 
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BlueRoads

BlueRoads

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jmdirt said:
I can't speak for your officials reasoning, but Idaho officials reasoned that if teachers are vaccinated they will be more willing to have their students back in the buildings. Boise schools have been back in school full time since mid January. Before that they were alternating days (1/2 of the students, every-other day) in the buildings. As a precaution they let out for Thanksgiving and didn't come back to school until they went full in mid January (I think that they had on-line school in Dec.). The states largest school district, Meridian/West Ada, which bumps up against Boise, had a pretty similar approach for the most part.
Click to expand...

I don't know about the schools in Belgium, but I think they have a class system, too? (Permanently the same group of people I mean in contrast to a course system)

I mean my son has now that his school will open again next week lessons with permanently the same 13 other pupils (and the other group of his class is only 9 people), the class is split into two groups, they only have lessons every second day, they wear masks all the time, ventilate, aren't allowed to eat or drink except for certain minutes outside all the time, aren't allowed to share pencils or stuff... Of course they don't have meals or clubs in the afternoon or any activities other than lessons.
All of that wasn't enough, they closed the school for most of the time from December on, after it was already closed for most of April-August.
The numbers in the area have been around 100 per 100,000, currently around 60.
Ah, and he needs to test himself each day, in case he's positive we and everyone who was close to him have to quarantine for two weeks.

I'm all for pandemic containment, but this is just not justified anymore, in my opinion.
 
Jagartrott

Jagartrott

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BlueRoads said:
I don't know about the schools in Belgium, but I think they have a class system, too? (Permanently the same group of people I mean in contrast to a course system)
Click to expand...
In primary school, yes, but in secondary school, small classes often have some courses together with other classes. Primary schools have been closed only a week extra in November, and one week extra in April. Secondary schools have had some more distance-learning. Every pupil age 10 and older has to wear a face mask in class.

Meanwhile, I think that the recent change of heart by Biden about patents sounds a bit dodgy, as indeed the US is still blocking exports of essential vaccine ingredients, and have hardly exported vaccines.
www.theguardian.com

US must export vaccine doses before waiving patents, say EU leaders

Frustration expressed at what several leaders see as the US president’s attempt to claim the moral high ground
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
 
D

djpbaltimore

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movingtarget said:
No but I think they are trying to say that an accidental release from a lab is not unlikely with the research they have been pursuing. Even some Chinese scientists have hinted at as much, maybe ones that live outside China now................the lack of full disclosure about the outbreak from the Chinese is still creating doubts in some scientific circles as much as the WHO want to tone that thinking down.
Click to expand...
It is not outside the realm of possibility, but it is still pretty unlikely. Currently, the consensus of non-WHO scientists is that zoonotic transmission is more likely. Sars2 is really hard to grow in lab without losing virulence, making it seem unlikely to be something that was propagated in that environment. I think this thread is pretty consistent with the prevailing view.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1390677947569242112
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1390677947569242112
 
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djpbaltimore

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Netserk said:
nicholaswade.medium.com

Origin of CovidâââFollowing the Clues

The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted lives the world over for more than a year. Its death toll will soon reach three million people. Yet the origin of pandemic remains uncertain: the political agendasâ¦
nicholaswade.medium.com nicholaswade.medium.com

Nicholas Wade on the origin of the SARS-CoV-2, and why it's plausible that it originates from a laboratory.
Click to expand...
This is the article I have been alluding to that mentioned the virologist omerta conspiracy theory. I didn't specify the problematic science, but this thread gets at the main points about the codon usage and the furin cleavage site not really being smoking guns. Wade really is out of his depth here and cherry picks pretty gratuitously. It is not a serious attempt to illuminate the origin any more than the official state report from China would be. Just a different form of bias IMO.
https://twitter.com/x/status/1391507230848032772
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1391507230848032772
 
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djpbaltimore

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Right on cue, Josh Rogin was on CNN again this morning to talk about lab escape theory. He was alone in the interview with no scientist on the panel. I've said it before, but I expect that lab escape will eventually be the conventional view within the populace for how this pandemic started. It doesn't even have to be true, just plausible. The attraction is its simplicity, peppering circumstantial evidence like a mystery novel and like Wade does, throwing enough of a scientific guise to convince people who have a freshman Biology level of understanding. The bonus is that it allows blame to be apportioned. Who is actually going to parse the thread I posted above and read the super technical academic papers linked in it. If you don't understand what the scientist below is saying in his thread, it is hard to rebut Wade. But if you do, you realize the whole theory is kinda built on a house of cards. Then you read the abuse these guys are getting on social media and you wonder why they even go to the trouble of trying to inform people this way.

The other problem for the natural origin hypothesis among the populace is that it is based on highly unlikely sequence of events happening. But so is winning the lottery and people do it all the time. Thankfully, CoV crossing over into humans is a low probability event. But low probability does not mean impossible.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1391493018121760772
View: https://twitter.com/Merz/status/1391493018121760772
 
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jmdirt

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djpbaltimore said:
Right on cue, Josh Rogin was on CNN again this morning to talk about lab escape theory. He was alone in the interview with no scientist on the panel. I've said it before, but I expect that lab escape will eventually be the conventional view within the populace for how this pandemic started. It doesn't even have to be true, just plausible. The attraction is its simplicity, peppering circumstantial evidence like a mystery novel and like Wade does, throwing enough of a scientific guise to convince people who have a freshman Biology level of understanding. The bonus is that it allows blame to be apportioned. Who is actually going to parse the thread I posted above and read the super technical academic papers linked in it. If you don't understand what the scientist below is saying in his thread, it is hard to rebut Wade. But if you do, you realize the whole theory is kinda built on a house of cards. Then you read the abuse these guys are getting on social media and you wonder why they even go to the trouble of trying to inform people this way.

The other problem for the natural origin hypothesis among the populace is that it is based on highly unlikely sequence of events happening. But so is winning the lottery and people do it all the time. Thankfully, CoV crossing over into humans is a low probability event. But low probability does not mean impossible.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1391493018121760772
View: https://twitter.com/Merz/status/1391493018121760772
Click to expand...
High school freshman.
 
J

jmdirt

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IMO, it is dangerous for a person of power to do what RJ is doing. Amendment 1 and all of that, but would it be OK for him to tell people that its safe to put a gun in their mouth and pull the trigger? Does Amendment 1 really protect speech from people in positions of power from putting people at risk?

EDIT: link
www.cnn.com

'Truly, madly, deeply false': Brianna Keilar fact-checks Ron Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine claim - CNN Video

CNN's Briana Keilar and John Berman fact-check Republican Sen. Ron Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine misinformation which he spread under the guise of "just asking the questions," on a right-wing radio show.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com

EDIT 2: Sorry for the CNN link, but they are just playing his actual words. The only doctor that he has spoken to is an eye doctor that he has lunch with.
 
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djpbaltimore

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Cookster15 said:
So accidental lab release seems the most plausible cause. In China's social media they are still telling the people that Covid-19 came there from America via the 2019 Military games in Wuhan. Yet I don't read this anywhere in Western news media.
Click to expand...
No. The scientific consensus is natural origin through an intermediate species as most likely. There is not much evidence for lab accident.
 
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Koronin

Koronin

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For those who have followed my husband's health issues, we finally have a real update. He had a biopsy last week and just to the results back. It's an auto immune disease that we've never heard of before, but every single issue he has is listed. It is the definite cause of the problems. The small bit of long haul issues he was having from Covid (mostly taste issues) appear to be mostly back to normal, most likely helped by the vaccine.
 
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BlueRoads

BlueRoads

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Koronin said:
For those who have followed my husband's health issues, we finally have a real update. He had a biopsy last week and just to the results back. It's an auto immune disease that we've never heard of before, but every single issue he has is listed. It is the definite cause of the problems. The small bit of long haul issues he was having from Covid (mostly taste issues) appear to be mostly back to normal, most likely helped by the vaccine.
Click to expand...

Are you happy you at least know now the cause? I think that must be some relief? I hope it's nothing too bad and you know what you can do to live with it. :( Wish him the best!
 
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