Coronavirus: How dangerous a threat?

[Cookster15]

The truth about what vaccines are achieving, from a country getting it right

The contest between vaccine and virus in Britain is much more nuanced than Scott Morrison makes out.

www.smh.com.au

Regardless of Britain's efforts to roll out vaccines I would prefer to have lived through the pandemic in Australia than Britain. And I say that as someone who is currently in lockdown in Sydney. Last death in Australia was on April 13. As I write just one person in Australia is currently listed as serious or critical with Covid-19.

 

[movingtarget]

Regardless of Britain's efforts to roll out vaccines I would prefer to have lived through the pandemic in Australia than Britain. And I say that as someone who is currently in lockdown in Sydney. Last death in Australia was on April 13. As I write just one person in Australia is currently listed as serious or critical with Covid-19.

Well its been a learning experience and plenty of research papers and books will be the result after its over. The Swedish approach, the US approach, Aust and NZ etc.........and no doubt that some politicians will pay for their policies at the next elections while some will be lauded for a more commonsense way of doing things but even the zero tolerance approach of Aust and NZ has shown its not infallible but I agree with you up to a point based on what I have seen and read so far. If I was a business operator in the travel industry or I worked in a hospital or nursing home I would probably see things much differently. I would have liked to have seen more incentives from the Aust govt re vaccinations and a more aggressive campaign from the AMA and the govt re the push to get vaccinated plus the supply of vaccines seems to have been very hit and miss according to doctors working in medical centres and clinics. Many said they have not been getting enough doses supplied. No doubt the issues with Astra Zeneca has scared a proportion of people away.

 

[yaco]

UK almost at half of their winter daily peak and tommorrow 40k souls at Wembley. Very questionable.

Check the death rate - 3 yesterday and an average of 5 per day for the last week.

 

[yaco]

Australia is discussing the potential to reduce the cap on numbers returning - Would have thought that with increased vaccination rates then Australia should be increasing their caps to vaccinated returnees - Even with quarantine periods, Australia is falling behind the times - Countries that have similar quarantine systems to Australia are either reducing their quarantine periods such as Hong Kong or abolishing quarantine such as Canada for people who are fully vaccinated - And Australia is still discussing the development of purpose built quarantine centres which will take months to be ready - I am struggling why these are needed - It appears that Australia doesn't trust the impact of vaccines.

 

[roundabout]

Check the death rate - 3 yesterday and an average of 5 per day for the last week.

I am not sure that the crowd will be UK residents only. It could be so with the entry rules to the UK, but I would not be 100% certain of that.

 

[yaco]

I am not sure that the crowd will be UK residents only. It could be so with the entry rules to the UK, but I would not be 100% certain of that.

Actually the UK's borders are currently more strict than many European countries.

 

[roundabout]

Actually the UK's borders are currently more strict than many European countries.

And?

 

[BlueRoads]

Actually the UK's borders are currently more strict than many European countries.

Well, there were some German fans as well... and I just hope they all quarantine when coming back... it's not like that gets controlled, although, if it turns out you didn't, there's punishment.

If it was something important for the economy or the mental health of people I would say okay, but it's just a football match which you can also watch on tv, it's just because the UEFA threatened to take the matches to another place if they didn't let 40.000 (and I think more for the finals?) in.

 

[yaco]

Well, there were some German fans as well... and I just hope they all quarantine when coming back... it's not like that gets controlled, although, if it turns out you didn't, there's punishment.

If it was something important for the economy or the mental health of people I would say okay, but it's just a football match which you can also watch on tv, it's just because the UEFA threatened to take the matches to another place if they didn't let 40.000 (and I think more for the finals?) in.

Crowd limits are ticked off by the health authorities in each country - My guess is they are comfortable with the risks - I am guessing you need to be vaccinated to travel to England for the football.

 

[roundabout]

more on football (page 8 and 9)

https://www.publichealthscotland.scot/media/8268/21-06-30-covid19-publication_report.pdf

Nearly two thirds of cases, or 1,294 people, reported travelling to London for a EURO 2020 related event, including 397 people who attended the 18 June Scotland versus England match at Wembley Stadium.

I remember reading that Scotland were allocated 2600 tickets only for that game.

Edit: and I guess it's not only the stadiums, but all the gatherings pre and post games as well

 

[djpbaltimore]

More reason to get vaccinated if your area is seeing an uptick in Delta. Delta mutations really aid in viral transmission, but not so much for immune evasion. That is good news, if you are fully vaccinated.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410051672286584832

View: https://twitter.com/bhrenton/status/1410051672286584832

 

[Koronin]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/delta-variant-infected-almost-everyone-194317750.html

 

[Ultrairon]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/delta-variant-infected-almost-everyone-194317750.html

Does not say how many were Hospitalized or have passed away.
You got to admire the fear spreading abilities of the media (in my opinion).

 

[Koronin]

Does not say how many were Hospitalized or have passed away.
You got to admire the fear spreading abilities of the media (in my opinion).

If you read the article. It basically says if you are vaccinated you are highly unlikely to get it, need to go to the hospital or die. As for the hospitalization hasn't been enough time. hospitalization and deaths are lagging numbers to infections.

 

[Oldermanish]

One difference is that I posted raw data analysis, while you posted what amounts to an opinion. And IMO, vaccines have been shown to increase antibody levels in those with prior infection. However, a second dose may not have a significant effect. There is a reason that many vaccination schemes use a prime:boost strategy. Two hits are better than one. The relationship to community spread is debatable. But I hope we can agree that there has been a reversal in the trends in the states that I had warned about.
Less panic and more vaccination actually. The numbers in the chart don't include 2020-21.

My workplace is finally removing social distancing and mask mandates starting on July 1st for those who are vaxxed. Last week we no longer had to chart symptoms on a daily basis. Good progress thanks to high (>80%) vaccination on campus.

ETA. It is amazing how much ivermectin talk is out there. Of course, a lot of it is due to the scarcity of vaccines in the developing world, but the ivermectin craze is almost a beat for beat remake of the hydroxychloroquine craze, except the latter probably was more scientifically sound. Long story short, Ivermectin doesn't work.

Washington State is now maskless although businesses can call their own shots (pun intended). The variant possibility has shown some awareness along surprising political lines: at the local gun range the older, vax averse hardline Republican attendees are wearing masks. Younger folks, not so much. 4 months ago some of these folks were maskless. Hopefully political affiliations will become less persuasive very soon.

 

[Oldermanish]

Washington State is now maskless although businesses can call their own shots (pun intended). The variant possibility has shown some awareness along surprising political lines: at the local gun range the older, vax averse hardline Republican attendees are wearing masks. Younger folks, not so much. 4 months ago some of these folks were maskless. Hopefully political affiliations will become less persuasive very soon.

So the first gun range, mentioned above, was outdoors and featured realistically 20' of breezy separation. Apparently the indoor range sets the tone and it is, well; indoors. The outdoor Range Master that controls things tried not to add any emphasis but it appears the older members were warned by their doctors to wear masks if not willing to vaccinate.

At an indoor range today that has the absolutely topline ventilation system and isolated booths, you can feel a regular 5-10 mph tailwind taking everything downrange. The younger staff was still compelled by management to wear masks. A friendly staffer said the policy was to protect the unvaccinated and particularly those that refuse to wear masks no matter what. This range has a facility used by ATF, local and county police and other agencies as well as private operators. He couldn't tell me when they would be free of the requirement but they don't want to be a risky environment which is fine. Tough on employees, though.

 

[movingtarget]

Covid ‘perfect storm’ as more patients hit by fungal infections

Weakened lungs and immune systems make people increasingly vulnerable, warn scientists

www.theguardian.com

 

[jmdirt]

So the first gun range, mentioned above, was outdoors and featured realistically 20' of breezy separation. Apparently the indoor range sets the tone and it is, well; indoors. The outdoor Range Master that controls things tried not to add any emphasis but it appears the older members were warned by their doctors to wear masks if not willing to vaccinate.

At an indoor range today that has the absolutely topline ventilation system and isolated booths, you can feel a regular 5-10 mph tailwind taking everything downrange. The younger staff was still compelled by management to wear masks. A friendly staffer said the policy was to protect the unvaccinated and particularly those that refuse to wear masks no matter what. This range has a facility used by ATF, local and county police and other agencies as well as private operators. He couldn't tell me when they would be free of the requirement but they don't want to be a risky environment which is fine. Tough on employees, though.

This^

 

[Netserk]

The Delta variant is taking over here in Denmark too, and this week we have seen an increase in cases (albeit from a small number of cases). But there's good vaccine news (for us) as Romania has sold us 1.1M doses of Pfizer. So if not in August, it's likely that we'll be world leading in September with the vaccine roll-out, as there's a massive uptake.

 

[Cookster15]

Well its been a learning experience and plenty of research papers and books will be the result after its over. The Swedish approach, the US approach, Aust and NZ etc.........and no doubt that some politicians will pay for their policies at the next elections while some will be lauded for a more commonsense way of doing things but even the zero tolerance approach of Aust and NZ has shown its not infallible but I agree with you up to a point based on what I have seen and read so far. If I was a business operator in the travel industry or I worked in a hospital or nursing home I would probably see things much differently. I would have liked to have seen more incentives from the Aust govt re vaccinations and a more aggressive campaign from the AMA and the govt re the push to get vaccinated plus the supply of vaccines seems to have been very hit and miss according to doctors working in medical centres and clinics. Many said they have not been getting enough doses supplied. No doubt the issues with Astra Zeneca has scared a proportion of people away.

I totally agree with you on the bold bit. I applied for vaccination but the earliest available time slot at one of the few vaccination clinics near me was a month from now? I don't know how much lack of vaccine supply is to blame but getting vaccinated really shouldn't be so difficult.

On the travel industry , I also agree. On the flip side is the overall Australian economy is steaming ahead despite closed international borders and other restrictions (Yaco please note). But there is still too much paranoia in Australia and maybe the media is part of that problem. The paranoia started with Covid-19 and state border closures and now the paranoia is about getting vaccinated and suffering blood clots. Do these same people worry about being struck by lightning?

 

[jmdirt]

I totally agree with you on the bold bit. I applied for vaccination but the earliest available time slot at one of the few vaccination clinics near me was a month from now? I don't know how much lack of vaccine supply is to blame but getting vaccinated really shouldn't be so difficult.

On the travel industry , I also agree. On the flip side is the overall Australian economy is steaming ahead despite closed international borders and other restrictions (Yaco please note). But there is still too much paranoia in Australia and maybe the media is part of that problem. The paranoia started with Covid-19 and state border closures and now the paranoia is about getting vaccinated and suffering blood clots. Do these same people worry about being struck by lightning?

I read a very interesting article about the psyche of this type of avoidance. The two psych docs had already done several studies, but decided to do one with ant-vax people who were scared of the SARS-CoV-2 vax, but looked at other factors in their lives that were risks. If I remember correctly their data group was 10,000 so it was it a little stronger than the standard 1,000 people used by many extrapolating data studies IMO. I won't fake to remember the percent of the 10,000 that had the other risk factors, but four that stuck out because the percentage was so large were: smoking, drug use (pharma), drug use (not pharma), heavy alcohol use (more than 12 drinks per week). Most had at least two, if not all four of those risk factors, but saw the C19 vax as dangerous. They had completed the first data compilation, and now are working on the analysis of their post discussions with the group. I'm hoping that however I found the initial article will pop up when the second part is released. I feel like it was one of the docs who I follow on twitter so hopefully they repost the follow up!

The docs discussed some of their previous research about how you can reason with people that only one in 10,000,000 get clots, but they are convinced that they will be the 1 not the 9,999,999.

 

[jmdirt]

Did anybody read the German research findings about blood cells and long-haul SARS-CoV-2? I read it, but when I try to copy the link there is a pay wall. I'll work on it...

This isn't the one I read, but this is it:

Long-term changes to blood cells triggered by Covid-19 infection

Using real-time deformability cytometry, researchers from the Max Planck Center for Physics and Medicine and FAU were able to prove for the first time that a Covid-19 infection causes significant…

www.fau.eu

Small group, but that's how it starts.

 

[jmdirt]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1410351852558815232

View: https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1410351852558815232

 

[Cookster15]

The docs discussed some of their previous research about how you can reason with people that only one in 10,000,000 get clots, but they are convinced that they will be the 1 not the 9,999,999.

I wonder how many of these people gamble thinking they might win? Its simply irrational thinking. Humans are irrational creatures. But the role of media in our lives is a big part of this - both traditional media and now social media. When Sydney went back into lockdown on June 26 I could not believe that idiots at my local supermarket have decided to clear out the shelves of all the toilet paper again?

 

[jmdirt]

I wonder how many of these people gamble thinking they might win? Its simply irrational thinking. Humans are irrational creatures. But the role of media in our lives is a big part of this - both traditional media and now social media. When Sydney went back into lockdown on June 26 I could not believe that idiots at my local supermarket have decided to clear out the shelves of all the toilet paper again?

Gambling (including lottery tickets) was discussed, but not included in the 'risk' factors. Most of their group gamble several times per week. Can you imagine being a person who smokes, takes oxy, gets drunk daily, plays on-line blackjack, but won't get a vax for the deadliest thing in our lifetime because it might be dangerous?!

I will never claim to be the smartest guy in the room (mostly because I never am!), but I am always listening to (reading) the smartest people so that I can be informed. I am certainly irrational at times (sorry you've experienced that), but I try to be or become informed. I fear that many/most don't make the effort to see beyond the tweet or news anchor.