We have to accept that the Omicron variant changed the game when it came to transmissibilty of COVID - The aim of vaccines was to provide protection against serious illness in which they've done an excellent job, and the by-product of that, is to significantly lower transmission between individuals - This is why Government's introduced vaccine mandates because the theory was that the unvaxxed were more likely to transmit COVID than the vaxxed - As we've seen through the world this is not the case - A real life example of this is how effectively COVID has broken through into nursing homes - The theory was that VAXXED workers/residents would give a higher level of protection form transmission which sadly has not been the case.
Unvaccinated Workers and Increasing Nursing Home Cases Correspond
Investigation on Unvaccinated Workers and Increasing Nursing Home Cases Correspondence is being conducted by the CDC
www.thenursinghomeattorneys.com
Lockdown returns as China records 3,393 daily COVID-19 cases
China reported 3,393 new Covid-19 cases Sunday, the National Health Commission said, more than double the previous day, as the country faces its gravest
punchng.com
These would be some starting places to look..Not sure what the name of next variant is..but it looks like they should get the name list established and at the ready. As seen in pro sports in the US,just because someone says that they are vaccinated,doesn't mean that they are. I suspect that is also part of general public behavior. Not betting that Chinese behavior will be more transparent,forthcoming than @2 years ago..so if there is a certain spike in cases and or death,given current world conditions, it's best to plan for worst case scenario.
Lots of the chronology in this thread and outside society have presented thousands of reasons that China was criminally responsible to just tough to deal with..it is where I will get my cues. @965,000+ deaths in the U.S.and our official information originally reported..fake news..same as the flu..will go away when the weather gets warmer.
So unfortunately and completely unscientific..you just gotta count dead bodies to know where to look first..
recent UK study shows 1in 35 of 975 in the study,positive for the virus..
I think,my singular opinion..if you get punched in the face,when you are looking away,hands in your pockets,completely out of the blue..it hurts more than w your guard up and anticipating combat..from what I see in the US a majority feel mission accomplished,let's move on,nothing to worry about..that to me equals standing there w your hands in your pockets looking at the pretty flowers right before you get destroyed w w hard right cross,followed by a left uppercut
In The Fight Against COVID, Health Workers Aren't Immune To Vaccine Misinformation
About a quarter of U.S. health care workers have refused the COVID-19 vaccine as of July. They share demographic traits with other unvaccinated people and are putting hospitals in a tough spot.
www.npr.org
I am going to watch Nurse Betty to avoid harm
And after 2 years still no national standard for nursing homes..for reporting,staff,deliveries,service people..guess something else came up
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK - Office for National Statistics
Percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) in private residential households in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland, including regional and age breakdowns. This survey is being delivered in partnership with University of Oxford, University of Manchester, UK Health...
www.ons.gov.uk
View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ByPjWCfc_Fw
Unvaccinated Workers and Increasing Nursing Home Cases Correspond
Investigation on Unvaccinated Workers and Increasing Nursing Home Cases Correspondence is being conducted by the CDC
Lockdown returns as China records 3,393 daily COVID-19 cases
China reported 3,393 new Covid-19 cases Sunday, the National Health Commission said, more than double the previous day, as the country faces its gravest
These would be some starting places to look..Not sure what the name of next variant is..but it looks like they should get the name list established and at the ready. As seen in pro sports in the US,just because someone says that they are vaccinated,doesn't mean that they are. I suspect that is also part of general public behavior. Not betting that Chinese behavior will be more transparent,forthcoming than @2 years ago..so if there is a certain spike in cases and or death,given current world conditions, it's best to plan for worst case scenario.
Lots of the chronology in this thread and outside society have presented thousands of reasons that China was criminally responsible to just tough to deal with..it is where I will get my cues. @965,000+ deaths in the U.S.and our official information originally reported..fake news..same as the flu..will go away when the weather gets warmer.
So unfortunately and completely unscientific..you just gotta count dead bodies to know where to look first..
recent UK study shows 1in 35 of 975 in the study,positive for the virus..
I think,my singular opinion..if you get punched in the face,when you are looking away,hands in your pockets,completely out of the blue..it hurts more than w your guard up and anticipating combat..from what I see in the US a majority feel mission accomplished,let's move on,nothing to worry about..that to me equals standing there w your hands in your pockets looking at the pretty flowers right before you get destroyed w w hard right cross,followed by a left uppercut
One country is not representative of the world - Most countries if not nearly all introduced compulsory vaccinations for staff of nursing homes - I suggest you look outside your bubble.
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If you are going to flat out lie repeatedly about what I have posted, expect to get called out on it. Respect is a two way street. And you have been disrespectful throughout to people on this forum.
If you look at what I wrote, I already specifically stated that the numbers from NYC were from the omicron wave.
Here is a challenge for everyone. Post data that shows that vaccines do not reduce omicron transmission. If you are so sure this is true, it should be easy, right?
And, your country was never over 90% double vaccinated. This just shows your bad faith. You are using numbers that exclude people who aren't eligible yet. Last I checked, SC2 can infect those people too. The 90% number is for 16+ ages.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/39Magilla/status/1494383031867609095
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The early models for deaths on Covid were 1 to 2 million in the USA in one year. I don't remember any model that said we would be 2 years in and at these current numbers.
According to the CDC Death Totals are at 964,774 not that it is not going to surpass that but you make a statement that the USA are just passing the milestone.
About Models.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
"Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures. "
Neil Ferguson should be asked some serious questions about his alarmist models. It is not like everyone should have known ahead of time that he gets things wrong a all the time.
"In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009. "
"In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.
In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.
Why did the Imperial team overestimate the fatality of the disease? Or to borrow Robinson's words to Hancock this morning: 'that prediction wasn't just nonsense was it? It was dangerous nonsense.' "
Most of the models early on were piles of trash.
According to the CDC Death Totals are at 964,774 not that it is not going to surpass that but you make a statement that the USA are just passing the milestone.
About Models.
Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed - PMC
Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence ...
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
"Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures. "
Neil Ferguson should be asked some serious questions about his alarmist models. It is not like everyone should have known ahead of time that he gets things wrong a all the time.
"In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009. "
"In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.
In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.
Why did the Imperial team overestimate the fatality of the disease? Or to borrow Robinson's words to Hancock this morning: 'that prediction wasn't just nonsense was it? It was dangerous nonsense.' "
Its hard to take someone serious when they use twitter sources named Magilla.Gorilla39 SMH LOL
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Or you could click on the link to the raw data. But that would require you to do something besides signal boosting antivax BS.
No models were making predictions that far out. We have long passed 1 million. The tally has always been an undercount.The early models for deaths on Covid were 1 to 2 million in the USA in one year. I don't remember any model that said we would be 2 years in and at these current numbers.
Most of the models early on were piles of trash.
According to the CDC Death Totals are at 964,774 not that it is not going to surpass that but you make a statement that the USA are just passing the milestone.
About Models.
Forecasting for COVID-19 has failed - PMC
Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence ...
"Epidemic forecasting has a dubious track-record, and its failures became more prominent with COVID-19. Poor data input, wrong modeling assumptions, high sensitivity of estimates, lack of incorporation of epidemiological features, poor past evidence on effects of available interventions, lack of transparency, errors, lack of determinacy, consideration of only one or a few dimensions of the problem at hand, lack of expertise in crucial disciplines, groupthink and bandwagon effects, and selective reporting are some of the causes of these failures. "
Neil Ferguson should be asked some serious questions about his alarmist models. It is not like everyone should have known ahead of time that he gets things wrong a all the time.
"In 2005, Ferguson said that up to 200 million people could be killed from bird flu. He told the Guardian that ‘around 40 million people died in 1918 Spanish flu outbreak… There are six times more people on the planet now so you could scale it up to around 200 million people probably.’ In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009. "
"In 2009, Ferguson and his Imperial team predicted that swine flu had a case fatality rate 0.3 per cent to 1.5 per cent. His most likely estimate was that the mortality rate was 0.4 per cent. A government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ was that the disease would lead to 65,000 UK deaths.
In the end swine flu killed 457 people in the UK and had a death rate of just 0.026 per cent in those infected.
Why did the Imperial team overestimate the fatality of the disease? Or to borrow Robinson's words to Hancock this morning: 'that prediction wasn't just nonsense was it? It was dangerous nonsense.' "
I posted a link the data from the CDC. You deny it. Undercount? more like overcount.
Maybe the magilla gorilla is right but I am not using twitter as a link or source for anything,--- so no thanks. I have not said one thing about antivax.
All the models were dead wrong. Why not just admit it. I gave you examples of Ferguson making stupid models based on nothing.
I think it could be because in Europe there were cancelled all restrictions. I personally have way more social contacts than last year at this time. It is like normal life again but you wear face mask sometimes. Even our country with one of the worst vaccination rates in Europe handled this wave in hospitals pretty well. I hope this next wave will not be big. There is lot of imunnity in Europe.
Well. Lot of countries with high vaxx levels (Portugal, Spain) had big surges so I really dont know why this situation even surprise you. Omicron is freak. Even China zero covid strategy did not work.
- Jun 9, 2014
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Look at excess deaths since Covid19 started and the numbers are well over 1m. The cdc tally is just confirmed deaths. Each country 's tally is an undercount. That is why the death toll in the world is 18m and not 6m.
Global pandemic death toll is three times higher than reported Covid-19 deaths suggest, study finds | CNN
The Covid-19 pandemic may have been three times deadlier than the reported death toll suggests.
That definitely plays a role. But the new subvariant of Omicron has a higher R value than the original omicron. So, countries that were keeping R just a little under 1 would go above 1 due to the enhanced viral transmission. In the US, the flip to the new subvariant is estimated to happen next month.
Sorry man if you got the impression that I think one country represents the world,my bad 2 countries represent the world..India and China..if a new equally contagious and deadly new variant sweeps through one or both..
sit down..
if it's sweeps both at the same time..do a backbend and kiss your as# goodbye. US can't build F-150s and washing machines, 1000's of essentials under what a few here are describing as some kind of mild hangover.
And as is playing out in real time.. US supply chain..Best Buy,Home Depot,Target,Lowe's and the big whale, Wal-Mart will turn upside down..China doesn't supply some stuff..it supplies all the stuff.
There used to be an old saying..when the US catches a cold the rest of the world gets pneumonia..so just a recent update if China catches Covid..version________.Lots of economies will need life support.
Gas for SCal is $5.74 in my area for 87 octane..that's w an economy on EPO..
Most experts say that there was a Covid crossover effect and most sensible behaviors helped us through an overly mild flu season.
One thing that I belly laugh about in bike racing and here..it's what is long term..in the US we still had thousands of people dying just a couple of months ago.. That's considered long term recovered? I am not in the market for a pickup truck or major appliance, but I have been waiting for a standard,run of the mill motorcycle for a year and a half..none available in the United States.
That's never happened and a pandemic never happened to me before...lived through lots of years of flu,wildfires earthquakes, war and @500,000 per year didn't die in all of them combined so pardon my caution.
So if your pulse check is Madison Wisconsin,Boise Idaho..or Mandrake Falls cool..not my thing..I am looking at dead Chinese people,clusters of Chinese sickened cities as my canary in a coal mine..others can follow signals from wherever they will...but again I am old school..smoke still means fire until I find out otherwise..
Cookster15
Moderator
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I totally agree respect is a two way street, I have been disrespectful to you in return and please do not claim you are respectful to others here. I think I wrote something harsh to one other poster here once but generally I avoid that. Another regular suggested I was being insincere but that was merely a misunderstanding. And I note you still have nothing good to say about our hospitalisation data. No doubt you will jump should those stats rise.
You are also guilty of cherry picking data to suit your views. On vaccination rates yes the accepted KPI is adults over 16 double vaccinated. I think Yaco corrected you on this a while back. Over 90% when omicron took off is accurate check yourself.
I did not lie!
Go back and quote yourself I know what you wrote about what might occur in Australia and you were simply wrong just like the modeling was wrong. I am not wasting my time to search for something you posted in 2021. Since you wish to accuse me of lying you can find it yourself. And on your question if vaccination on omicron shows anything less than say a 20% reduction in transmission then that is insignificant. Explain the case counts? Are you saying these were transmitted by kids? You’d be wrong on that too.
Ihave agreed with many many many points Bill Maher has made about health,nutrition,personal responsibility and testing..there were lots of changes and breaks in programming during the pandemic,he got it right 110% of the times I watched..especially about diet,exercise and diabetes
China Finally Loses Control of COVID as New Variant Spirals
Cities including Shanghai and Shenzhen locked down again, but a leading Chinese virologist questions whether China can be kept COVID-free.
China announces new restrictions as coronavirus cases rise | Arkansas Democrat Gazette
BEIJING -- China's government responded Sunday to a spike in coronavirus infections by shutting down its southern business center of Shenzhen, a city of 17.5 million people, and restricting access to Shanghai by suspending bus service.
www.arkansasonline.com
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No doubt it played a big role as does genetics and poverty or combinations of those but there were also plenty of young, well conditioned non vaccinated victims as well...................certain politicians at the start of the pandemic and for quite a while were rolling with the narrative that it was only a cold and nothing to worry about it and that just contributed the scattergun approach to public health messaging and it no doubt made many who were wavering about vaccinations, decide not to have one. Many of these public officials, had little insight and in some cases wilful opposition to understanding what scientists were trying to tell them. No doubt it just contributed to the death toll especially when family members followed suit or stuck to the political party messaging instead of listening to the experts. A real mess re public health awareness and not just in the USA..................the CDC's performance especially early in the pandemic will no doubt be under the microscope later on, no pun intended...........and the influence of the internet and celebrity mouthpieces has also been a major problem for governments and still is. Simply put, if they are popular, its very hard for the science messaging to make an impact but that is one area where the governments and experts have to improve although many see it as a losing battle and just another sign of deteriorating cultures and the internet agenda wars.
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Let me repeat.... the virus does not care whether a person has been eligible for vaccine or not. The percent vaccination of a country includes ALL the people. Australia does not have 90% vaccination. Period.I totally agree respect is a two way street, I have been disrespectful to you in return and please do not claim you are respectful to others here. I think I wrote something harsh to one other poster here once but generally I avoid that. Another regular suggested I was being insincere but that was merely a misunderstanding. And I note you still have nothing good to say about our hospitalisation data. No doubt you will jump should those stats rise.
You are also guilty of cherry picking data to suit your views. On vaccination rates yes the accepted KPI is adults over 16 double vaccinated. I think Yaco corrected you on this a while back. Over 90% when omicron took off is accurate check yourself.
I did not lie!
And on your question if vaccination on omicron shows anything less than say a 20% reduction in transmission then that is insignificant. Explain the case counts? Are you saying these were transmitted by kids? You’d be wrong on that too.
The data I posted suggested vaccination decreased case counts by ~70%. Much better than 20%. The case counts are from unvaccinated people and the 30% of the vaccinated. That is a lot of people.
If there is any doubt why they are locking down, this is a big reason. I am surprised they still have so many unvaxxed elderly.China announces new restrictions as coronavirus cases rise | Arkansas Democrat Gazette
BEIJING -- China's government responded Sunday to a spike in coronavirus infections by shutting down its southern business center of Shenzhen, a city of 17.5 million people, and restricting access to Shanghai by suspending bus service.
View: https://mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1503420724853231623
I've posted for months about the low rates of vaccinations for the elderly in Hong Kong - When you have a conservative medical profession who are suspicious of the long-term effects of the RMA vaccines, along with cultural factors, along with strict medical plans for the infirmed in nursing homes then you have aa perfect cocktail - Some have said introduce vaccine mandates - Well this has no impact on this group - They don't work, rarely visit restaurants or fly - Originally, HK was supposed to use AZ as one of their three vaccines but the world-wide scare campaign made the authorities ditch the vaccine - I think if the Govt used AZ it would have increased the vaccine rates in the elderly. Mainland China has similar issues with elderly vaccine rates among the elderly, although not to the same extent as in HK - And contrary to uninformed public opinion, Mainland China has never made vaccination compulsory - Ultimately, there is little that the authorities can do if this cohort of people should not be vaccinated.
Sorry Frank I don't take Maher or Shapiro that seriously. They talk a ton tough. They fall into my category of celebrity talking heads. I don't use them as a source of knowledge.
Obesity and Diabetes is a huge health problem in the USA. Many different reasons. One is you can't acknowledge it as a problem because you will be the problem. Its socially accepted as a lifestyle to be obese now. Covid's effects was much worse due to the percentage of obesity in the USA yet its not a national crises.
Often I read your detailed,logical responses and think, why didn't he make or get the point? Just Cliff's notes..yes diabetes and obesity are national 911- pandemic of their own issues that have demanded immediate,emergency action.Both are demonstrably more dangerous than Covid could have ever dreamed to be..Diabetes,heart disease and obesity as stand alone pandemics,which is what they are in the United States judged by a score card...Covid has killed @970,000 in 2 years and if the metric is that,fine..but the other 3 are regular killers and if you expand the time period..diabetes has killed millions over a @20 year window..and then there is discussion about long Covid and all it's horrific lasting effects.. obesity,Heart disease and diabetes have equal to or greater lasting impact..including routinely needing to cut off your limbs..so doing head to head comparison is a way to make content, the real addition is all four combined are a catastrophe anywhere they are mixed.
And your other point you get to but don't make is messages and messengers.
Rogan, Bill Maher,Pillow guy, thousands of others are messengers, their message is always in need of careful scrutiny. If you are taking and acting upon medical advice given by Elvis,an athlete or reality show host, ok..I would never. But if Elvis, Eddie Van Halen or Eddie Murphy or Eddie Merkyx suggested a vaccine regiment I would look up the details about what they suggested in a public service announcement or other outlet..w Van Halen or Merkyx they could wear a t-shirt w w website and that could be a starting point. For me,my family and employment,co workers I collected information and spoke with my doctors, after all that was always the preferred method from day one up until today and tomorrow...ask your doctor..not Bill Maher,but your doctor. The point you steer around is leadership. The federal government should have never ever ever ever left wartime guidance and trusted information to TV talking heads, YouTube and random people.
The message should have been,should be go to your doctor,go to this website to start your research. My profile would be " doctor look at me, funny hair,had nose,chubby,can't ride a sub 1 hour 40k TT,gain weight from cheese, pizza,tacos,beer,bread..and pilsner and bottle fermented Belgian anything, should I get the vaccine? Is it safe given my girth and intelligence level? "
that's real life..
too many people are doing the University of Phoenix online course of life, crazy beliefs that you can become a medical doctor or karate black belt, in your pajamas,at home, alone in your spare time..This pandemic was always going to be hard work, you and I see what we did instead,tuned in to comedy show or YouTube for life and death medical information because it was easy.
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