Critérium du Dauphiné 2012 stage 4, 53.5km, Villié-Morgon-Bourg-en-Bresse, ITT

[dlwssonic]

wiggins showed his strength so early before the tdf.
Now the other contenders will go harder and attack harder in the mountains to make him lose time.

 

[Mellow Velo]

Not sure why a lot of folks are making the assumptions that Wiggins is already at his Tour max, while Evans and the rest were holding back and nowhere near his/their limit.
He has been pretty dominant in every race he has targeted.

Besides which, I'm pretty sure that Brailsford and his back room boys know a thing or two about peaking at the right time.

Chris Froome was the laughing stock on here, just a month or so ago.
Nobody is laughing now.
Sky are starting to look uber strong, seems as if their UK Postal tag will
hold good for the mountains as well.

Of course, Brad's detractors may be right, but at the moment, it looks like a whole lot of straw clutching going on.

 

[theyoungest]

Not sure why a lot of folks are making the assumptions that Wiggins is already at his Tour max, while Evans and the rest were holding back and nowhere near his/their limit.
He has been pretty dominant in every race he has targeted.

The races he targeted suited him to a tee, of course. Win the TT, win the race. Could he, for instance, have won Tirreno?

Besides which, I'm pretty sure that Brailsford and his back room boys know a thing or two about peaking at the right time.

They do? What big races have they won? (not talking track here)

Chris Froome was the laughing stock on here, just a month or so ago.
Nobody is laughing now.

It's about time he gets me some CQ points

 

[Winterfold]

A lot of peeps seem pretty convinced Evans rode within himself but the video interview on this site makes me less certain. He did not achieve what he is capable of - but that is not the same as riding within yourself.

Wiggins will not be fooled either way - if you read his blog in the Guardian it is clear he is taking Evans stellar performance in the last TT in last years Tour as the benchmark - not what happened yesterday. I am glad he is keeping a lid on expectations and hyperbole as the last week of the Tour is still quite a way off...

 

[Panda Claws]

Froome needs to step it up.

A nice 6th place in the ITT is okay, but if that's the only performance you have to show in 2012...

Just wait 'till we get to some real cols, with blistering paces.
Froome will see soon enough that the Tour isn't the Vuelta.

Of course he could prove me wrong, but right now Froome isn't the quite the machine people are making him out to be.

I don't really think Wiggins is near his Tour max yet, but definitely closer than Evans (and Schleck )

Still it's how interesting how Evans looked almost scared.

Also, thought you guys would like this.

Average speeds in the first 18 km

Chavanel starts insanely fast

Wiggins: 52.6
Evans: 52.3
Chavanel: 53.07
T. Martin: 52.9
Kelderman: 52.43
L.L. Sanchez: 52.3
Van den Broeck: 51.67

Average speeds between 18-40 km

Wiggins puts on the pressure big time.
Interestingly enough Van den Broeck is faster than Evans here.

Wiggins: 47.54
Evans: 45.13
Chavanel: 45.46
T. Martin: 46.34
Kelderman: 45.73
L.L. Sanchez: 45.39
Van den Broeck: 45.23

Average speeds in the final 13 km

Evans speeds up again, probably motivated by an approaching Wiggins
Chavanel clearly started to fast and fades
T. Martin strikes back (Insane resistance kicking in?)

Wiggins: 52.35
Evans: 51.94
Chavanel: 50.76
T. Martin: 52.47
Kelderman: 51.43
L.L. Sanchez: 50.76
Van den Broeck: 50.87

A few additions:
Froome (final 13 km): 52.13
A. Schleck (final 13 km): 45.50

 

[Mellow Velo]

Still it's how interesting how Evans looked almost scared.

On the other hand, he was 1:51 behind Wiggins at the second chrono and only 1:43 at the finish.

I'm surprised some haven't latched onto this as proof that Cadel is faster than Wiggins when he's not riding within himself and that Bradley has already started to lose his Tour form: at some point after km 40 of the Dauphine ITT.

 

[Panda Claws]

I'm surprised some haven't latched onto this as proof that Cadel is faster than Wiggins when he's not riding within himself and that Bradley has already started to lose his Tour form: at some point after km 40 of the Dauphine ITT.

The funny thing is that this was actually wrong, I just read it somewhere but had to change it. Wiggins did comparatively slow down to Evans but his average speed in the final 13 km is still higher than Evans.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

The funny thing is that this was actually wrong, I just read it somewhere but had to change it. Wiggins did comparatively slow down to Evans but his average speed in the final 13 km is still higher than Evans.

Glad you spotted that, I was quoting you to edit when the rest of your post appeared and the misleading claim on the last section was removed.

Not surprised though, the long road at the 2nd check did make them look much closer than they were.

 

[goggalor]

The funny thing is that this was actually wrong, I just read it somewhere but had to change it. Wiggins did comparatively slow down to Evans but his average speed in the final 13 km is still higher than Evans.

He was slower between the two points, but faster in the last 7/8 km or so. Wiggins was something like 8 seconds behind at one point, but started to fade just a little, while Evans finally got rolling.

Hatcher, that was a horrible summary you made.

I'll try to be brief, for this race Wiggins ride was fantastic.
For the tour, Wiggins has said "here I am, come and get me", which has both positive and negative aspects. For everyone else, well I know Evans wasn't on his limit, i don't know about the others, if Nibali for example was on his limit this is a bad day, if he was 80% it's an excellent day. So no this is not a bad day for Wiggins and good for everyone else. Wiggins said damned if he does damned if he doesn't and he was right.

The best option for Wiggins would have been to win at less than 100% like armstrong in 02,03 and leave a little doubt as to how good he is. i think his performance was the second best option. 3rd best would have been to finish around the Evans mark.

1.3kg of fluid loss in 1hr TT completely normal, but of course the only effects would be felt at the end and not really relevant

Other riders, I don't know how hard they pushed. Don't look at Nibali for example and assume 3:30 in 53km equates to needing 6 minutes in the mountains for the tour, he could well have ridden well within himself as Evans did

It's worth mentioning that Nibali also lost his bidon at 50 km to go.

 

[spalco]

Glad you spotted that, I was quoting you to edit when the rest of your post appeared and the misleading claim on the last section was removed.

Not surprised though, the long road at the 2nd check did make them look much closer than they were.

Actually I got the impression (with no numbers or anything to back it up), that Wiggins got quite close to Evans at one point, that Evans then managed to stretch out the distance again, but towards the finish Wiggins was closing in again.

 

[karlboss]

Not sure why a lot of folks are making the assumptions that Wiggins is already at his Tour max, while Evans and the rest were holding back and nowhere near his/their limit.
He has been pretty dominant in every race he has targeted.

Besides which, I'm pretty sure that Brailsford and his back room boys know a thing or two about peaking at the right time.

Chris Froome was the laughing stock on here, just a month or so ago.
Nobody is laughing now.
Sky are starting to look uber strong, seems as if their UK Postal tag will
hold good for the mountains as well.

Of course, Brad's detractors may be right, but at the moment, it looks like a whole lot of straw clutching going on.

Wiggins may not be (probably not) at his Tour peak, though I'd be very suprised if that TT wasn't all out. Evans I'd be very surprised if he was at his max. The other contenders i don't know about, i didn't see them ride.
If I was a gambling man I'd put solid money on Wiggins to be exceptional until and including the first time trial.
Froome...in my eyes he's damned if he does, damned if he doesn't, just came clear out of nowhere for the Vuelta.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

He was slower between the two points, but faster in the last 7/8 km or so. Wiggins was something like 8 seconds behind at one point, but started to fade just a little, while Evans finally got rolling.

It's worth mentioning that Nibali also lost his bidon at 50 km to go.

Also worth mentioning KarlBoss is not Boss enough to be able to spot SCREAMINGLY OBVIOUS SARCASM

 

[patterson_hood]

Really I just think wiggins is overrated for GTs.
Thats just my opinion.
Im willing to take an avatar bet that wiggins won't win the tour.

I'll take it what you proposing? If Wiggo wins I'll pick out something good covered in Union Jacks, if he loses then I'll take what's coming. It's all a bit of fun isn't it?

 

[theyoungest]

What I found most interesting is that Rogers was exactly as fast as Martin on the second part of the course, where Wiggo made the difference. Which, to me, suggests that we've just seen a sub par Martin yesterday.

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

What I found most interesting is that Rogers was exactly as fast as Martin on the second part of the course, where Wiggo made the difference. Which, to me, suggests that we've just seen a sub par Martin yesterday.

Bingo.

Hence using Tony as a benchmark to say Cadel matched his 2011 Dauphine TT is just a bit odd. Tony is much worse this year. Wiggins may or may not have jumped on, but those 2 seem to have moved back versus this time last year.

 

[Panda Claws]

I mainly find it interesting how much better Wiggo deals with headwind(?) between km 18 and 40.

His speed there is MUCH higher than the opposition, suggesting that his position really is a lot better.

 

[GazelleFormula]

I mainly find it interesting how much better Wiggo deals with headwind(?) between km 18 and 40.

His speed there is MUCH higher than the opposition, suggesting that his position really is a lot better.

I wouldn't associate 47.5km/h with a headwind...

 

[theyoungest]

I mainly find it interesting how much better Wiggo deals with headwind(?) between km 18 and 40.

His speed there is MUCH higher than the opposition, suggesting that his position really is a lot better.

There were heavy crosswinds, not a headwind.

 

[Bumeington]

He was slower between the two points, but faster in the last 7/8 km or so. Wiggins was something like 8 seconds behind at one point, but started to fade just a little, while Evans finally got rolling.

It's worth mentioning that Nibali also lost his bidon at 50 km to go.

http://uwic.academia.edu/KarianneBa...ance_is_Not_Affected_by_Ingested_Fluid_Volume

Not relevant

 

[Kwibus]

I wouldn't associate 47.5km/h with a headwind...

Well they definately had a lot more headwind in during that part. Else they would ride 52+km/h/

 

[JibberJim]

There were heavy crosswinds, not a headwind.

Yes, and it could be that the aerodynamics of Wiggins and Martin is very different at high yaw, I suspect they saw wind angles they would never normally care about in their position, normally they're riding so fast the highest yaw angle they see is still really tiny so they only care about very low angles. The positions in high yaw could be complete luck - not enough to change a cart horse into a race winner, but enough to make some difference.

With Rogers also going well in that section, it could simply be the difference in equipment between Sky and OPQ - Chavanel was also relatively slower there wasn't he?

 

[Winterfold]

I thought Wiggo didn't look his usual metronomic self yesterday - definitely a lot more fidgeting and less panache - but the clock doesn't lie

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

I thought Wiggo didn't look his usual metronomic self yesterday - definitely a lot more fidgeting and less panache - but the clock doesn't lie

Agreed - reminded me of Bertie shifting back on his seat every 5 seconds.

With Rogers also going well in that section, it could simply be the difference in equipment between Sky and OPQ - Chavanel was also relatively slower there wasn't he?

Speaking of equipment...

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/team-sky-to-ride-specialized-bikes-in-2013

 

[goggalor]

http://uwic.academia.edu/KarianneBa...ance_is_Not_Affected_by_Ingested_Fluid_Volume

Not relevant

So I guess the riders bring a bottle just because they like the extra weight then, that makes sense.

Bingo.

Hence using Tony as a benchmark to say Cadel matched his 2011 Dauphine TT is just a bit odd. Tony is much worse this year. Wiggins may or may not have jumped on, but those 2 seem to have moved back versus this time last year.

Compared to the times from last year, Evans is quite a bit faster in relation to Tony, which fits with Martin being weaker (and Cadel possibly around the same level). Wiggins has improved relative to Cadel though.

 

[spalco]

There were heavy crosswinds, not a headwind.

Probably he's so thin now the wind just blows right through his ribs.