Critérium du Dauphiné 08/12 > 08/16/20

[Gigs_98]

I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.

Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.

Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.

I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.

Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.

Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.

I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.

 

[Lequack]

This is where they're headed, Col de Madeleine

 

[tobydawq]

I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.

Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.

Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.

I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.

Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.

Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.

I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.

I basically disagree with every point in this post except that I also think it could be Pinot's year and that I also expect lots of people to disagree

 

[Jspear]

I basically disagree with every point in this post except that I also think it could be Pinot's year and that I also expect lots of people to disagree

Yes lots do disagree.

 

[bob.a.feet]

Gigs, some very good points there, however I have to disagree with your Roglic / Dumoulin assesment.

Sure Tom is more proven in GTs but Roglic is the most recent GT winner while Tom hasn't started one in over 2 years. And even if his absolute peak is higher than Roglic's, he has a long way to go to reach it. Dumoulin should definitely not be used just as a domestique, but when you have a guy who's smoking the field two weeks before the Tour you would be foolish not to back him.

Of course, this is cycling so we're probably both wrong.

 

[BlueRoads]

I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.

Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.

Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.

I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.

Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.

Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.

I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.

You seem like a smart and reasonable guy, so I am wondering what that makes me, because I don't agree with you at all! (Not offended, though )
I wish Pinot would win this, that would be just great. But in the end he does have a rather weak team and that might cost him on the crosswind stages, again. He has become a very decent time trialer but if that is good enough to beat Roglic? And then: to say Roglic is hugely overrated while looking what he has been doing the last 2 years, and getting better and better, is - I am not a Roglic fan, in fact he's one of the riders I don't care about on a personal level at all, but damn, that guy looks strong, strong, strong. Of course TJV as a whole could be just peaking too early, but is there any sign that they do, other than that they just seem too strong?
And about his last k's punch: with this year's route that's exactly what you need. And what makes him definitely the favourite over Dumoulin for me, even if Dumoulin should still build his form.

Pogacar might end up not being one of the three riders of the future. Maybe I tend to overemphasize the weather-affinity, but I feel in terms of Tour-results it might actually not be so great for him that the Tour is always (more or less...) in the summer. Still, I think he's way better, and will be in the future, than Enric Mas, who, to me, has been really over-hyped (by Contador, mostly? Contador was a rider with great style who annoys me the more the more he talks).

Bernal: for years now we have become used to the fact that the no 1 of "Ineos", or their number 2, is the biggest favourite for the Tour. But since last year that team as a whole just has not looked that strong. Last year that could be explained with the crashes and the fact that they had to severely change a few schedules/ plans. This year there is no such easy explanation. Of course, compared to most other teams they are still incredible, but being no 1 on Ineos will not be enough for the win. Bernal on his own is one incredibly strong rider who I would put on par more or less with Pinot or Buchmann. Less punchy than Pinot. Definitely punchier than Buchmann. Who the strongest of them will be in the Tour I could not really say. Might depend on the day and circumstances. He's not the favourite for me. But I would never call him overrated.

 

[repre]

I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.

Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.

Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.

I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.

Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.

Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.

I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.

The main purpose of this post was to hype 2013 Froome...

 

[Red Rick]

I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.

Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.

I agree and disagree on Roglic. I agree the 3-10 min efforts are clearly his strength, as well as some aero component. I disagree that just because he doesn't take off with 6km to go yesterday that means he wasn't clearly the best yesterday. You don't win that easily if all your advantage is anaerobic and even then your aerobic fitness is still even with the rest. Maybe he's slightly weaker in pure endurance, but long mountain stages are hard to come by.

I don't really think we really have a reference for Roglic in his current form for GTs. Him getting ill in the Giro last year is fairly well documented, and IIRC they admitted doing Romandie was a poor choice. While you might argue the Vuelta field was weak, he was also never in trouble, even on stages that were ridden from far out, and would've won by more if not for a TTT crash. I agree on the 2018 Tour as a decent reference, but then that's also 2 years ago and the stage designs were shite for him to drop Dumoulin and Froome.

Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.

Dumoulin is certainly a wildcard, and I think people sleep a bit on his peak climbing. That said, I think it's still a bit too early to really gamble on him, but I am curious for how his TT is at the team where everyone's TTs get better. Obvious choice would be to mainly ride for Roglic but keep Dumoulin as safe as possible. I don't really think choosing between the two should actually be that hard in the end

I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.

Exactly what I was thinking. Looks to me like all Colombians peak early, and his ITT is incredibly weak for the level to which he's hyped. Like is there even a double TdF winner who was a pure climber? Also I think even his most dominant climbing performances aren't really up to standard of peak Quintana, Froome, Nibali, Contador, and he was getting dropped for 2 weeks before winning it. I think people talk too much about Roglic only winning the Vuelta and not enough about Bernal winning the weakest Tour in a decade. Not sure I'd back 2019 Bernal against any Tour winner this century apart from maybe Cuddles.

Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.

Think that's a bit harsh on Pogacar as yesterday was pretty much his first disappointing ride in a year. His Vuelta ride was way better than Mas imo despite being only a 3rd place, and a very big difference between the 2 is that Pogacar competes everywhere while Mas is less competitive unless he peaks for something. Also think that doing both Strade and MSR didn't help here if you look at Alaphilippe.

Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.

Overall, I don't think TJVs tactics should be that complicated. Their entire team is on a great schedule, except maybe for Kruijswijk be he's never good in prep races. If I were them I'd drill stage 2 to pressure Thomas and Froome and make life easier if it works. Kruijswijk might do a Kruijswijk special and drop 12 minutes, but other than Dutch mafia nobody really cares. After that, probably don't even try too hard to control the race. I reckon other teams might want to control the uphill sprints for Valverde/Alaphilippe anyway, and it's important not to tire the train on unimportant stages. If Roglic takes time in the first week, fine, if not also fine IMO. Whatever they do, don't sack Dumoulin in the first week unless it's some leadout where he doesn't lose time anyway. Pyrenees are pretty straightforward. Let breaks go and choochoo Marie Blanque/Peyresourde if Roglic is great or bad. Reevaluate life after the Pyrenees

I think Grand Colombier is the big turning point, and decisions should only be clsoe if Dumoulin is way better than Roglic there and if Dumoulin is within striking distance of the other rivals and can climb with the best. If that sort of thing doesn't happen then and instead happens on Col de la Loze, I'd say just choo choo for Roglic. I don't think that's the climb to lose minutes. Col de Portet was a harder climb, though Madeleine will hurt more than the lead in then.

I think the main question is if Ineos are actually bottling up their prep or they'll be fine by the time the Tour happens.

I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.

You fractured my emotional collarbone, my disappointment is overwhelming, and my day is ruined.

 

[RedheadDane]

You fractured my emotional collarbone, my disappointment is overwhelming, and my day is ruined.

Hey... better than having your emotional femur fractured.
Personally, I only have physical collarbones and femurs...

 

[BlueRoads]

Hey... better than having your emotional femur fractured.
Personally, I only have physical collarbones and femurs...

So there is no connection between hair colour and the nature of your bones?

 

[BlueRoads]

Is de Gendt sick? Yesterday he was bad, today he can't keep up on a short climb if I read that correctly?

 

[Gigs_98]

@ quite a few
About the whole Jumbo Visma thing, I also wouldn't go all in on Dumoulin, Roglic is definitely too good for that. I guess what I wrote was mostly a complicated and unnecessarily controversial way of saying "Roglic overrated, Dumoulin underrated" ^^

 

[johnymax]

I agree and disagree on Roglic. I agree the 3-10 min efforts are clearly his strength, as well as some aero component. I disagree that just because he doesn't take off with 6km to go yesterday that means he wasn't clearly the best yesterday. You don't win that easily if all your advantage is anaerobic and even then your aerobic fitness is still even with the rest. Maybe he's slightly weaker in pure endurance, but long mountain stages are hard to come by.

I don't really think we really have a reference for Roglic in his current form for GTs. Him getting ill in the Giro last year is fairly well documented, and IIRC they admitted doing Romandie was a poor choice. While you might argue the Vuelta field was weak, he was also never in trouble, even on stages that were ridden from far out, and would've won by more if not for a TTT crash. I agree on the 2018 Tour as a decent reference, but then that's also 2 years ago and the stage designs were shite for him to drop Dumoulin and Froome.


Dumoulin is certainly a wildcard, and I think people sleep a bit on his peak climbing. That said, I think it's still a bit too early to really gamble on him, but I am curious for how his TT is at the team where everyone's TTs get better. Obvious choice would be to mainly ride for Roglic but keep Dumoulin as safe as possible. I don't really think choosing between the two should actually be that hard in the end



Exactly what I was thinking. Looks to me like all Colombians peak early, and his ITT is incredibly weak for the level to which he's hyped. Like is there even a double TdF winner who was a pure climber? Also I think even his most dominant climbing performances aren't really up to standard of peak Quintana, Froome, Nibali, Contador, and he was getting dropped for 2 weeks before winning it. I think people talk too much about Roglic only winning the Vuelta and not enough about Bernal winning the weakest Tour in a decade. Not sure I'd back 2019 Bernal against any Tour winner this century apart from maybe Cuddles.


Think that's a bit harsh on Pogacar as yesterday was pretty much his first disappointing ride in a year. His Vuelta ride was way better than Mas imo despite being only a 3rd place, and a very big difference between the 2 is that Pogacar competes everywhere while Mas is less competitive unless he peaks for something. Also think that doing both Strade and MSR didn't help here if you look at Alaphilippe.




Overall, I don't think TJVs tactics should be that complicated. Their entire team is on a great schedule, except maybe for Kruijswijk be he's never good in prep races. If I were them I'd drill stage 2 to pressure Thomas and Froome and make life easier if it works. Kruijswijk might do a Kruijswijk special and drop 12 minutes, but other than Dutch mafia nobody really cares. After that, probably don't even try too hard to control the race. I reckon other teams might want to control the uphill sprints for Valverde/Alaphilippe anyway, and it's important not to tire the train on unimportant stages. If Roglic takes time in the first week, fine, if not also fine IMO. Whatever they do, don't sack Dumoulin in the first week unless it's some leadout where he doesn't lose time anyway. Pyrenees are pretty straightforward. Let breaks go and choochoo Marie Blanque/Peyresourde if Roglic is great or bad. Reevaluate life after the Pyrenees

I think Grand Colombier is the big turning point, and decisions should only be clsoe if Dumoulin is way better than Roglic there and if Dumoulin is within striking distance of the other rivals and can climb with the best. If that sort of thing doesn't happen then and instead happens on Col de la Loze, I'd say just choo choo for Roglic. I don't think that's the climb to lose minutes. Col de Portet was a harder climb, though Madeleine will hurt more than the lead in then.

I think the main question is if Ineos are actually bottling up their prep or they'll be fine by the time the Tour happens.


You fractured my emotional collarbone, my disappointment is overwhelming, and my day is ruined.

Thank you Red Rick. Your reply was very reasonable and very much spot on. Now I don't have to write a crazy long replay (it could take me hours lol) so I could sleep well at night.

 

[hayneplane]

Roglic is clear number 1 favourite for the Tour but Dumoulin is rapidly regaining race fitness and sharpness and is not a card that should be sacrificed too early.

Don't see Vuelta Pogacar as being a potential anomaly like Mas was as there is a huge difference both in the manner in which they got their results and the form in 1 week stage races.

Pinot would be a sentimental choice welcomed by many around the world who would gladly see him win if their favourite fell by the wayside. He has those human frailties and is a genuine likeable character.

 

[RedheadDane]

Pinot would be a sentimental choice welcomed by many around the world who would gladly see him win if their favourite fell by the wayside. He has those human frailties and is a genuine likeable character.

What about those of us who consider Pinot (one of) our favourite(s)? But perhaps speaking from heart, rather than head.

 

[Faserr]

Will there be attacks on the Madeleine? There are some helpers in the front group, but I don't know if they make it over the Madeleine to help on the flat part.

 

[Red Rick]

Will there be attacks on the Madeleine? There are some helpers in the front group, but I don't know if they make it over the Madeleine to help on the flat part.

I'm really not sure. It's the obvious place to try something but then it's day 3 of the Dauphine and gaps are small, and also it's only the Dauphine.

Only Contador would be stupid enough to try.

 

[Faserr]

I don't rule out Buchmann, Bardet or Aru.

Ok, Aru ist not there

 

[Rollthedice]

What about those of us who consider Pinot (one of) our favourite(s)? But perhaps speaking from heart, rather than head.

Tibo, man of the people, breaker of hearts. He is one of the favorites, petit favorite but nevertheless.

 

[repre]

What about those of us who consider Pinot (one of) our favourite(s)? But perhaps speaking from heart, rather than head.

I consider him one of 3 biggest favourites with Bernal and Rogla. Only thing against him is the strenght of the team, but with the battle of Ineos and JV he may be forgotten and his attacks won't be as marked as Egan's and Primoz's.

 

[tobydawq]

What about those of us who consider Pinot (one of) our favourite(s)? But perhaps speaking from heart, rather than head.

I didn't think you had favourites.

 

[DJ Sprtsch]

Having just started the Madeleine ascent, Formolo and Latour are alone in front after having been in the break with 7 other riders. Some 45 seconds to the break and 3 minutes more to the bunch.

 

[RedheadDane]

I didn't think you had favourites.

Maybe I do... In the sense that I get weirdly emotionally attached to some riders. I guess what I don't is the "As long as [X rider] doesn't win" thing. I'd like Pinot to be at his best and winning would be the icing on the emotional cake (which is much better than breaking emotional bones!) However, if Roglic or Bernal wins, that'll be cool too.

BTW, are we talking Dauphiné or the Tour right now?

 

[Poursuivant]

They’re on the Madeleine and there’s no pictures yet. So annoying

 

[Tonton]

I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.

Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.

Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.

I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.

Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.

Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.

I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.

Interesting way to look at the Roglic-Dumoulin situation. I can't say that I disagree with much of this post: you could very well be right across the board. Except for the aforementioned Roglic-Dumoulin take. The dude dominates right now, Dumoulin needs to show a lot more this week for a debate to really exist. But things may change. JV for the TdF is built to dominate Sky, there will be an undisputed leader, I can't see how/why it wouldn't be Roglic.