Critérium du Dauphiné 08/12 > 08/16/20

[Tonton]

I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.

Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.

Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.

I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.

Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.

Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.

I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.

Interesting way to look at the Roglic-Dumoulin situation. I can't say that I disagree with much of this post: you could very well be right across the board. Except for the aforementioned Roglic-Dumoulin take. The dude dominates right now, Dumoulin needs to show a lot more this week for a debate to really exist. But things may change. JV for the TdF is built to dominate Sky, there will be an undisputed leader, I can't see how/why it wouldn't be Roglic.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

would that be a Pogi->Formolo attempt??

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I consider him one of 3 biggest favourites with Bernal and Rogla. Only thing against him is the strenght of the team, but with the battle of Ineos and JV he may be forgotten and his attacks won't be as marked as Egan's and Primoz's.

Yeah, I agree. For me, the three biggest favorites to win the Tour are, in order, Roglic, Bernal and Pinot. I think there are a quite a few riders more likely to podium or top 5 the Tour than Pinot, though.

 

[ppanther92]

Its a crime that Formolo won't ride Lombardia...

 

[tobydawq]

Maybe I do... In the sense that I get weirdly emotionally attached to some riders. I guess what I don't is the "As long as [X rider] doesn't win" thing. I'd like Pinot to be at his best and winning would be the icing on the emotional cake (which is much better than breaking emotional bones!) However, if Roglic or Bernal wins, that'll be cool too.

BTW, are we talking Dauphiné or the Tour right now?

The Tour, I think.

And you're an emotional cake.

 

[perico]

He is actually quite Tyler Hamilton lookalike. Vanishing twin, no?

Rides like Hampsten, looks like Hamilton.

 

[BlueRoads]

And you're an emotional cake.

That sounds like the best compliment ever.

 

[BlueRoads]

One thing I have always wanted to ask, because I don't understand it: Why does a team like Arkea in a situation like this lead the peloton? Is it because they think Quintana can benefit from a high pace here better than others? Or because they want a lower pace? Or simply because they have been told to do some exposure for the sponsors?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I feel like hottakes right now so here we go.

Based on the previous history of their riders JV should right now probably realize that they have one obvious horse to back for the tour, that being Dumoulin. I'll keep saying the thing I've regularly said last year, Roglic is insanely overrated. He keeps doing his last kilometer efforts in preperation races which impress people so much that they decide to ignore his actual gt performances.
He won the Vuelta, sure, and you have to be a very strong rider to do that, but it doesn't automatically make you the top favorite for the tour. And then what gt performance is supposed to convince me that he is the current gc top guy? Him climbing on par with a 21 year old in the Vuelta? Him getting dropped by Carapaz and Nibali at will in the last week of the giro? I genuinely believe his most impressive gt climbing performances came in the 3rd week of the 2018 Tour where he still wasn't climbing better than a number of guys who will be his rivals this year.
Sure his preperation race results so far look great but so they did before last years giro. I don't buy it.

Meanwhile Dumoulin is slowly building up his form just like he always did. The lack of TT's might become a problem for him, but if it's just about his shape I'd argue he looks just like his former self again. And I know it's easy to forget but that former self was labeled as the one to derail Ineos less than two years ago. If it's about peak performance I absolutely think Dumoulin is still a level above Roglic and I'm inclined to think he'll hit that peak in France this year.

I guess the favorite for me is still Bernal though, but I'm starting to think he'll be just a slightly better (not even sure about that bit) version of Quintana. He got the tour win Quintana never achieved but was 2019 Bernal actually any better than 2013 Quintana? 2013 Quintana didn't win because 2013 Froome was around and neither would Bernal with peak Froome as his opponent. A year gone and I don't feel like Bernal improved. Now that's not catastrophic because there is still no 2013 Froome in sight, so he could still very well win. But he's not gonna become the next tour dominator and he'll have to take his wins before the next one arises.

Then of course there is Pogacar, the other young and upcoming star. He's not gonna be the next big thing either and I'd bet quite a bit that the hype surrounding him will largely disappear after this tour. He will without a doubt become a great rider, he might very well win a gt one day, but I get serious Enric Mas vibes by him who basically did the exact same thing as him at the Vuelta, just a year earlier and nobody is hyping him now. Of course Pogacar was even younger but still. There is something about him that makes me think he just peaked very early and got lucky with a super weak Vuelta field.

Meanwhile I wholeheartedly think this could be Pinot's year. Just like it could have been last year. There are so many big names lining up for the tour (argubly much bigger than Pinot's) but to me it feels like the field isn't actually much stronger than it was a year ago. If he is as good again and I have the feeling he will be, I genuinely think he has a decent chance to win.

I feel like many people will disagree with some of these things so I just want to say that I did not intend to offend anyone. We'll see soon enough about which things I'm right and about which I'm wrong soon enough (and I'm very well aware some of the things I wrote might reeeeally not age well ^^). So yeah, I'm just really looking forward to the tour really curious how things will go.

You overdid some of your points for dramatic effect and in order for people to react. It worked. But other than that, there are many valid points (if you take away the sharp edges).
Bernal so far doesn't seem like an improved version. Could Covid-19 have something to do with that? Was he able to train as required? Roglic so far has to prove himself as a top climber over 3 weeks on long climbs against top climbers, in some ways i agree. Winning the Vuelta is no point of reference, especially not with the competition he got. On the other hand, assuming Jumbo wasn't lying, he had stomach problems in the Giro and there was a reason for him underperforming. Still, even before that, he didn't seem "next level". As i have said many times, Pogacar's 3rd place and 3 stagewins has blinded some people. He got dropped multiple times in a weak Vuelta but always managed to hang on, due to tactical games being played by the guys up front. If he doesn't improve compared to the Vuelta, he'll have a hard time getting in the top 10 at the Tour. I still think he'll improve though, and we'll know more the coming days. Pinot is again looking good, as is Buchmann. Dumoulin showed some very positive signs yesterday, having to come back on the climb, and finishing ahead of guys that are supposed to be in better form than him.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

One thing I have always wanted to ask, because I don't understand it: Why does a team like Arkea in a situation like this lead the peloton? Is it because they think Quintana can benefit from a high pace here better than others? Or because they want a lower pace? Or simply because they have been told to do some exposure for the sponsors?

Honestly, there is no logical reason for them to do the work that Ineos and Jumbo were going to do anyway, so i'd have to think it's about exposure.

 

[Jspear]

Is it just me or is Tiz cycling livestream not working?

 

[Jspear]

Take that back. It’s working....

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Dawg looking likes he's about to drop

 

[perico]

Froome is about to blow up

 

[sir fly]

When I started following cycling Madeleine was the epitome of Alpine pass to me.

 

[perico]

And he’s gone.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Formolo in virtual yellow!

 

[perico]

#Doggone

 

[lpmsazerrt]

Is it just me or is Tiz cycling livestream not working?

http://freestreams-live1.com/eurosport-france-2/

 

[Rollthedice]

#Doggone

He'll be back with a daredevil descent.

 

[Bonimenier]

Will we have more than 1k actual race among the favourites today?

 

[Big Doopie]

WVA is amazing! A wonder to watch!

 

[carolina]

Froome just went to get water bottles. He is already in the peloton.

 

[Lequack]

Froome just went to get water bottles. He is already in the peloton.

Classic Froome move.

 

[RedheadDane]

That landscape is absolutely stunning!