Critérium du Dauphiné 2022, June 5 - 12

[acm]

Yes, he had "a weaker day". He could only stay in the wheel of Vingegaard, who constantly had to contain himself. In addition, the opposition was absolutely not of Tour level.

Meanwhile, Vingegaard himself has stated that he can win the Tour this year. Perhaps a bit too optimistic (versus Pogacar). But in doing so, he clearly refers to Roglic's mediocre condition. Roglic will definitely get even better in the next few weeks.
Up to Vingegaard's level. But not at the level of Pogacar

And Jonas also explained team tactics before last stage of Dauphine. To attack and then pull Primoz to the finish line. And that happened. No need for Roglic to do anything other than follow. No one can say who was stronger, that's just pure speculations.
I'm done with this topic, no need to reply. We just disagree.

 

[acm]

And then Roglic smashes both Vingegaard & Pog in the final 40km TT like it's the Olympics, leaving Jumbo thinking "oh sh*t, if only Rog had been pulled on his bad day...".

Nah, I believe Roglic is number one & Jumbo treat him very carefully for very good reasons, including for sport reasons & also loyalty. Vingegaard wasn't catapulted into Jumbo as a hot prospect, he was mentored by Roglic & directly benefitted from the established system around Rog. It's worth remembering Lotto were pretty much nowhere in 2016 & 2017 (other than Kruijswijk's natural consistency). But in terms of GC fighting for the biggest prizes & not just finishing behind the best, Roglic is Jumbo & Jumbo is Roglic.

Vingegaard has done well but it would be a form of betrayal for TJV to abandon Rog at this moment. He's a nice guy & would just ride into the Parisian sunset smiling with his victorious teammate, but losing the TdF against someone who wouldn't even be there if not for Roglic breaking down barriers & putting Jumbo where they are would be pretty sh*tty.

Amen. And may I add, Roglic will always have Grischa on his side. You can see in their last documentary about TdF 21', Grischa was not very happy when the guy who sat next to him said that they have to ride for Jonas now.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

That's not the TOUR-level.

You did watch the 2020 Tour, right? Roglic was excellent until the final ITT when he was 5th and smashed by Pogi. That is the only stage I can ever remember where Pogi was clearly a level above Roglic. Vingegaard lost to Pogi by over 7 minutes last year and was destroyed in their only head to head race this year, not even attempting to ride with Pogi, just like in pivotal moments in the Tour. I also recall Vingegaard falling on at least one uphill and actually running with his bike while arguing with the guy he knocked over. And this is the guy that is clearly better than Roglic? We will see in July. It could be the case. But until there is evidence, I will stick with the guy who had a long track record of performing at the highest level day in and day out.

 

[Oldermanish]

A lot of cyclingfans and journalists did see Roglic risked dropping. Look at the video of the climb again. It is so obvious. Also Vingegaard noticed. Of course, he had to wait and wait for Roglic all the time. So much so that Vingegaard is now even proclaiming that he can win the Tour this year. I think he can be the better than Roglic, IF allowed to by the teammanagement. But Rogla will still be better than him.

I wouldn't bet the house that what you saw on one stage represents what will happen in 4 weeks.

 

[bajbar]

Some posts in this thread are insane... a rider who has never finished worse than 2nd in a GT since 2019 Vuelta (when he finished the race) and just had his most dominant GT win ever in September 2021, who has this year won Paris-Nice and Dauphine (a feat only achived in history by Anquetil, Mercx and Wiggins) and who is putting out some of his best watts, even though he is not in peak shape yet coming from a knee injury... looks a percent or two weaker than a teammate (and even that is questionable - when Roglič is on the limit his elbows start going sideways, he looks pale as death and drip is coming out of his mouth - none of that happened yesterday). The teammate that has never beaten Roglič in a stage race before (with the exception of Itzulia this year where Rog had his knee all banged up), never won a WT stage race, not to mention never led or won a GT. And suddenly Roglič cannot even possibly dream about winning the Tour, while Vingegaard will wipe the floor with Pogačar in July. And Roglič is clearly declining - imagine being 32 years old... retire already old man. Who cares you only started cycling at 23 and turned pro at 26.

Of course Roglič is not perfect, he has his flaws and weaknesses and I am sure there is a definite chance Jonas might be slightly better on a certain type of a climb and hell, he also has a chance to win it all in the right circumstances. But the Tour or a GT in general is not won on one mountain stage. It's won by constantly being among the best, being good at everything. And claiming Roglič has no chance of winning the Tour and should just carry bottles for the climbing god Vingegaard is rather insulting. The true power of Jonas having a good level is that they can both attack Pogačar and that by having two big threats Pogi might not be able to win that easily (or at all).

All in all, I am not sure what Roglič should have done in the Dauphine to convince his doubters... beat Ganna and Wout on a pan-flat ITT? Drop Vingegaard and steal a well earned stage win for nothing? Win a training race by 5 minutes? Beat Groenewegen in a flat sprint? Perhaps... but then the same people would say - look at him, peaking too early again, he will crack in the third week again, didn't he learn anything...

Roglič is such an amazing rider, so efficient at everything he does. Yet some people always try and discredit him - while riders like Landa, who fails time and time again, get hyped into oblivion - oh, how mythical Landani will beat everyone on this and that climb. And he always fails. Unlike Roglič, who usually delivers the goods, but who is apparently (according to some people on twitter) not even capable of podiuming the Tour, since Bardet and Adam Yates are clearly superior to him in every aspect of bike racing and Roglič is clearly no match for them.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

Did you watch yesterday's stage or a replay of Wiggins getting Froomed?

I did watch yesterday's stage. I did read the blogs, the newssites and sportsites. Together with many cycling enthusiasts and journalists, I came to the conclusion that Roglic got into trouble. He could only save his yellow jersey because Vingegaard put the brakes on all the time.

 

[Extinction]

Some posts in this thread are insane... a rider who has never finished worse than 2nd in a GT since 2019 Vuelta (when he finished the race) and just had his most dominant GT win ever in September 2021, who has this year won Paris-Nice and Dauphine (a feat only achived in history by Anquetil, Mercx and Wiggins) and who is putting out some of his best watts, even though he is not in peak shape yet coming from a knee injury... looks a percent or two weaker than a teammate (and even that is questionable - when Roglič is on the limit his elbows start going sideways, he looks pale as death and drip is coming out of his mouth - none of that happened yesterday). The teammate that has never beaten Roglič in a stage race before (with the exception of Itzulia this year where Rog had his knee all banged up), never won a WT stage race, not to mention never led or won a GT. And suddenly Roglič cannot even possibly dream about winning the Tour, while Vingegaard will wipe the floor with Pogačar in July. And Roglič is clearly declining - imagine being 32 years old... retire already old man. Who cares you only started cycling at 23 and turned pro at 26.

Of course Roglič is not perfect, he has his flaws and weaknesses and I am sure there is a definite chance Jonas might be slightly better on a certain type of a climb and hell, he also has a chance to win it all in the right circumstances. But the Tour or a GT in general is not won on one mountain stage. It's won by constantly being among the best, being good at everything. And claiming Roglič has no chance of winning the Tour and should just carry bottles for the climbing god Vingegaard is rather insulting. The true power of Jonas having a good level is that they can both attack Pogačar and that by having two big threats Pogi might not be able to win that easily (or at all).

All in all, I am not sure what Roglič should have done in the Dauphine to convince his doubters... beat Ganna and Wout on a pan-flat ITT? Drop Vingegaard and steal a well earned stage win for nothing? Win a training race by 5 minutes? Beat Groenewegen in a flat sprint? Perhaps... but then the same people would say - look at him, peaking too early again, he will crack in the third week again, didn't he learn anything...

Roglič is such an amazing rider, so efficient at everything he does. Yet some people always try and discredit him - while riders like Landa, who fails time and time again, get hyped into oblivion - oh, how mythical Landani will beat everyone on this and that climb. And he always fails. Unlike Roglič, who usually delivers the goods, but who is apparently (according to some people on twitter) not even capable of podiuming the Tour, since Bardet and Adam Yates are clearly superior to him in every aspect of bike racing and Roglič is clearly no match for them.

It's called class ie. psycho-physico value beyond the quantifiable, but that doesn't mean automatic win. The mountains will establish the heirarchy at JV at the Tour, but I think, bar crashes, Roglic comes out on top, because precisely he has more class.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

You did watch the 2020 Tour, right? Roglic was excellent until the final ITT when he was 5th and smashed by Pogi. That is the only stage I can ever remember where Pogi was clearly a level above Roglic. Vingegaard lost to Pogi by over 7 minutes last year and was destroyed in their only head to head race this year, not even attempting to ride with Pogi, just like in pivotal moments in the Tour. I also recall Vingegaard falling on at least one uphill and actually running with his bike while arguing with the guy he knocked over. And this is the guy that is clearly better than Roglic? We will see in July. It could be the case. But until there is evidence, I will stick with the guy who had a long track record of performing at the highest level day in and day out.

As I wrote, Vingegaard is now already in (top)form. Roglic not yet. Roglic will be in better shape in a few weeks. BUT, that won't be enough to defeat Pogacar. Pogacar is year after year getting better, Roglic is gradually less good. Roglic might still be able to beat Pogacar in a sprint uphill, if they weren't speeding before. But then we are talking about a profit of a few seconds. Pogacar will strike once or twice in a tough stage with a solo. Maybe he's already getting a bit ahead of Roglic in the cobblestone ride. I also see that Roglic is increasingly having a bad day. And one bad day is enough to not even make the top 5.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

I wouldn't bet the house that what you saw on one stage represents what will happen in 4 weeks.

Of course not. But then there is still Pogacar who is a lot better than 32-year-old Roglic

 

[Eeslliw]

I did watch yesterday's stage. I did read the blogs, the newssites and sportsites. Together with many cycling enthusiasts and journalists, I came to the conclusion that Roglic got into trouble. He could only save his yellow jersey because Vingegaard put the brakes on all the time.

So you are saying Vino could go even 40s faster? Jonas did 6,3 W/kg or something like that while braking? I guess Pogacar should be worried after all...

 

[boliver523]

i remember last year after lombardia everyone was criticizing primoz for peaking too early, now suddenly it's a big problem that Primoz is not at his peak in dauphine. people really need to make up their mind.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Pogacar is year after year getting better, Roglic is gradually less good.

Indeed Pogi is getting better each year and the public data seems to suggest just that. The problem with your claim is the last part. And that is the public data suggest otherwise. Rogla is getting better too.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Personally i don't feel Tour 2022 will be decided by a peak form of one or another. They are now too good for that.

There will be something else involved that will decide the winner.

 

[Oldermanish]

Of course not. But then there is still Pogacar who is a lot better than 32-year-old Roglic

I wouldn't bet much money that Pogacar is a lot better than Roglic. Tadej is one of my favorite riders but no more invincible than Roglic in the upcoming challenges. Remco's fans would have us believe he'll beat them both....soon. It's great to get excited but being a fan is just that.

So you are saying Vino could go even 40s faster? Jonas did 6,3 W/kg or something like that while braking? I guess Pogacar should be worried after all...

Roglic also knew he didn't need to go any faster than what he was doing and he'd reassured his teammate he'd already won the stage. If Jonas felt in his heart of hearts he could win his first Dauphine I'm not sure he wouldn't have attempted to gain that 40 seconds. That risk could have ended his opportunity to ride the Tour no matter how it ended but his attentiveness still allowed journalists and bloggers to find a wedge issue to gossip about. Love it.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So you are saying Vino could go even 40s faster? Jonas did 6,3 W/kg or something like that while braking? I guess Pogacar should be worried after all...

If Vinge had dropped Roglic he wouldn't have needed to go 40 seconds faster to be 40 seconds ahead of him. Still, probably 40 seconds was too much even if Vinge was stronger.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

According to the data Lantern Rouge used for this article, Pogacar was no stronger in 2021 than in 2020 and the only 2022 result on here was slightly below his performance curve for what it's worth. Vingegaard / Roglic's performance in the Dauphine stacks up very well with Pogacar's historical performances.

In regard to Roglic/Vingegaard, Vingegaard's final climb in the Dauphine is far and away the best he has performed - a much better performance than than when he dropped Pogacar at Ventoux. Race conditions, situation, etc. factor in but again, take it for what you will. This was a major outlier for Vingo.

However, this is right on the performance curve for Roglic. The data doesn't indicate at all that he has fallen off in performance. And, of course, he not only won the Vuelta last year but won the Olympic Gold in ITT (without Pogacar in the field).

My conclusions:

• Roglic's proven high level dating back to 2018 is higher than all of Vingo's performances UNTIL Vingo's 2022 Dauphine performances
• There is no indication that Pogacar is getting better; the data indicates he attained super human form at 21 in the year 2020 and has maintained that form ever since
• Vingo's performance in last year's Tour was well below Roglic's level
• Roglic's performance curve is nearly identical to Pogacar's (this requires you to pick points on each and compare, since they are not plotted together)
• If Vingo and Roglic can perform to the level of this data, they should be competitive with Pogacar

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

If Vinge had dropped Roglic he wouldn't have needed to go 40 seconds faster to be 40 seconds ahead of him. Still, probably 40 seconds was too much even if Vinge was stronger.

As another poster indicated, Roglic looked nothing like he normally does when at his limit. I agree that Vingegaard also clearly could have gone faster. How, then, do we reconcile that with the fact that Vingegaard was already riding out of his mind during this stage? If he could have gone even faster, this was just a mind boggling outlier performance from him, which would in fact indicate that he has taken a massive step up from a 7 and change minutes back in the Tour rider to Roglic/Pogacar level. He had certainly not taken that step up in Ilultzia.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

As another poster indicated, Roglic looked nothing like he normally does when at his limit. I agree that Vingegaard also clearly could have gone faster. How, then, do we reconcile that with the fact that Vingegaard was already riding out of his mind during this stage? If he could have gone even faster, this was just a mind boggling outlier performance from him, which would in fact indicate that he has taken a massive step up from a 7 and change minutes back in the Tour rider to Roglic/Pogacar level. He had certainly not taken that step up in Ilultzia.

I think Vinge could've gone a bit faster (not much). As for his performance, he's definitely one of 3 contenders for the Tour victory and he's stronger than ever.
Then again, comparing numbers alone (from different races, circumstances etc) isn't always objective.

For example Pog absolutely crushed Le Grand Bornand stage last year: his Romme climbing was very good (but not an outlier by his standards) but if you consider the fact that he actually climbed a combo of 1600 m of elevation gain in a terrible weather and created a huge gap on the rest for a reason (difficult conditions to perform well) then his performance is among the best in this century (even if some guys achieved comparable w/kg for some single climbs in better conditions).

Another example: PDBF TT. Only the power data for the climb is estimated but Pog did a very strong TT-ing for 30 km before the climb. His doctor mentioned that he was able to maintain like 6.3 w/kg for an hour and he did exactly that. It's believable considering that on the last climb alone he had like 6.6 w/kg and the flat part was also very strong.

To sum up I believe these two watt bombs are the best performances in last few years at least (and even more for 1-hour long performances category). Definitely better than putting just 15 sec into O'Connor. Even if they didn't stand out in single climb w/kg charts.

 

[KZD]

An important note to take into account was that it was very hot during the Ventoux stage, with better weather conditions I think Vingegård's performance would have been on par with Col du Portet. And Pogačar's performance on Col du Romme could have probably been at least 6.6w/kg without all that rain or the 250km stage high speed stage on the day before.

As for Vingegård, his performance yesterday, showed that he needs to be considered almost on par with Roglič as one of the favourites for the Tour (though the conditions seemed pretty good) but I just wonder if he isn't too good too soon given that he was anonymus in last year's Dauphiné and I fear the same for O'Connor which according to this data should have done his best performance ever too.

 

[dercuforever]

I did watch yesterday's stage. I did read the blogs, the newssites and sportsites. Together with many cycling enthusiasts and journalists, I came to the conclusion that Roglic got into trouble. He could only save his yellow jersey because Vingegaard put the brakes on all the time.

You really think Vingegaard could have put 45 sec + into him ? He seemed stronger yes, but remember last 500m Roglic will take back 10 seconds anyway.

 

[VeloMaster]

As I wrote, Vingegaard is now already in (top)form. Roglic not yet. Roglic will be in better shape in a few weeks. BUT, that won't be enough to defeat Pogacar. Pogacar is year after year getting better, Roglic is gradually less good. Roglic might still be able to beat Pogacar in a sprint uphill, if they weren't speeding before. But then we are talking about a profit of a few seconds. Pogacar will strike once or twice in a tough stage with a solo. Maybe he's already getting a bit ahead of Roglic in the cobblestone ride. I also see that Roglic is increasingly having a bad day. And one bad day is enough to not even make the top 5.

Boy, heads will explode around here if Pog doesn't have this thing locked up before the end of Week One. Apparently, no need to race, let alone watch.

 

[Bonimenier]

Boy, heads will explode around here if Pog doesn't have this thing locked up before the end of Week One. Apparently, no need to race, let alone watch.

I'll give others a chance if Pogacar loses 5 minutes in crosswinds and/or on cobbles in the first week.

 

[BigCoward]

Why do people keep saying JV lost last years tour by 7 minutes? It was 5.20, and a lot of that was garbage time.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Why do people keep saying JV lost last years tour by 7 minutes? It was 5.20, and a lot of that was garbage time.

My bad. Misremembered the gap to Carapaz as the gap to Vingegaard. 5:20 is still not close.

 

[Billie]

Why do people keep saying JV lost last years tour by 7 minutes? It was 5.20, and a lot of that was garbage time.

None of it was garbage time. Gap was even bigger after the Alps. Pogacar soft pedalled the final TT.