Critérium du Dauphiné 2022, June 5 - 12

[pablohidalgo7]

My bad. Misremembered the gap to Carapaz as the gap to Vingegaard. 5:20 is still not close.

Plus one minute less because Jonas waited for Rogla on stage 3, algo he crashed on Stage 8 just abit before the war started and was visible injured in his shoulder that day and the next day in Tignes, people always forget that.

 

[Red Rick]

Plus one minute less because Jonas waited for Rogla on stage 3, algo he crashed on Stage 8 just abit before the war started and was visible injured in his shoulder that day and the next day in Tignes, people always forget that.

I feel like a lot of people act like Pogacar repeated Romme on Col de Portet and Luz Ardiden. Both times he tried to drop Vingegaard and Carapaz and couldn't really do it. Pogacar isn't far away the best climber on any day on any climb like many seem to think. He's world class on most days, invincible on very selective days, but also weak on some days.

 

[ciranda]

If you count from stage ten or something Vingegaard uses less time than Pogacar. In addition to the time waiting for Roglic he lost 3.20 to le Grand-Bornand, 32 seconds on the ninth stage and 27 seconds in the first time trial but maybe Pogacar softpedalled that too.

After Pogi and Carapaz had attacked on the eighth stage he can be seen looking round at Lutsenko and Keldermann and the others there, it's like he wants to chase but is not confident enough to go first.

 

[pablohidalgo7]

I feel like a lot of people act like Pogacar repated Romme on Col de Portet and Luz Ardiden. Both times he tried to drop Vingegaard and Carapaz and couldn't really do it. Pogacar isn't far away the best climber on any day on any climb like many seem to think. He's world class on most days, invincible on very selective days, but also weak on some days.

Well, my opinion is maybe a bit unpopular in other sites because Im the kind of people that still thinks that a healthy and fit Primoz without crashes is still quite close to Pogacar, only speaking as GT contender (not in other areas like monuments for example). In fact, I believe that Pogacar is only marginally superior to Primoz and not due to pure W/Kg climbing perfomances and TT, is only because in the "state of agony" is the better one of all and specially with bad weather and cold like last year Alps wich in quite unusual for a Tour de France.
Obviously he is also a great climber for any mountain top finish, but no way I believe he can left behind Rogla in every climb, at least until now he has never dropped him in a mountain top finish indeed.
Vingegaard is not yet in the same level as Pog/Rpg in terms of regularity, explosiveness, TT skills (still so good in this areas) but i have the same feeling for him in the long-steep climbs that i was having during the Giro with Hindley, i think he is a freaking good pure climber, dont know why he seems to me like the Andy Scheleck 2010 of Pogacar (with him in Alberto´s role), but it´s a nonsense because Primoz is in the equation for sure.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Well, my opinion is maybe a bit unpopular in other sites because Im the kind of people that still thinks that a healthy and fit Primoz without crashes is still quite close to Pogacar, only speaking as GT contender (not in other areas like monuments for example). In fact, I believe that Pogacar is only marginally superior to Primoz and not due to pure W/Kg climbing perfomances and TT, is only because in the "state of agony" is the better one of all and specially wiht bad weather and cold like last year Alps wich in quite unusual for a Tour de France.
Obviously he is also a great climber for any mountain top finish, but no way I believe he can left behind Rogla in every climb, at least until now he has never dropped him in a mountain top finish indeed.
Vingegaard is not yet in the same level as Pog/Rpg in terms of regularity, explosiveness, TT skills (still so good in this areas) but i have the same feeling for him in the long-steep climbs that i was having during the Giro with Hindley, i think he is a freaking good pure climber, dont know why he seems to me like the Andy Scheleck 2010 of Pogacar (with him in Alberto´s role), but is a no sense because Primoz is in the equation for sure.

Unpopular? Maybe. But not far from truth. Pogacar and Roglic are closely matched most of the time (in both mountain & tt-s) and in general their wattage (and mass) are similar. However, Tadej has shown a few superb performances in GTs when he was unmatched, which obviously brought him great success and his repuration. He usually did it once or twice per GT. Primoz also had such a performance at Covadonga last year (in bad weather as well), which suggests that peak Primoz may be up to the task next time when Pogi engages afterburners (or at least able to limit his losses and try for revenge another day). Time will tell.

 

[Oldermanish]

Unpopular? Maybe. But not far from truth. Pogacar and Roglic are closely matched most of the time (in both mountain & tt-s) and in general their wattage (and mass) are similar. However, Tadej has shown a few superb performances in GTs when he was unmatched, which obviously brought him great success and his repuration. He usually did it once or twice per GT. Primoz also had such a performance at Covadonga last year (in bad weather as well), which suggests that peak Primoz may be up to the task next time when Pogi engages afterburners (or at least able to limit his losses and try for revenge another day). Time will tell.

I'm sure everyone has watched both Primoz and Tadej climb in hundreds of videos. They are not the same climber and behave accordingly. Primoz rode Dauphine stage 8 like he was pacing himself. Jonas could prance away but when Primoz liked the terrain he got out of the saddle and rolled the gap closed fairly easily. That Jonas constantly looked back doesn't really relate to effort or outcome. He just did that like Sepp Kuss did on year One of riding with Roglic.
Likewise Tadej can work, spin and look very cool in a group and intimidate them into not attacking but will let loose and f*cking race uphill to get a gap; then settle into a sensible tempo to preserve his advantage. He's exceptionally disciplined for a young rider and, with all of the comparisons with Jonas, Primoz and Tadej; Jonas has not been as deeply proven in a full GT IMO. His presence adds a ton of interest to the races to come but anyone that would want to sideline Primoz for the flavor of the moment is naive. Tadej can psych out almost everyone in the peloton but Primoz.

 

[Rackham]

The way I see it is the problem with Tadej Pogacar isn't racing him on the hardest mountains or staying on his wheel (this can be accomplished by riders with a sufficiently high level themselves), or even beating him on certain stages (this has also been accomplished before), no, it's that one day where he goes into a Frenzy & annihilates the field.

Two years ago it was La Planche de Belles Filles, last year Le Grand-Bornand. He has these insane moments where no one can follow & his level spikes.

In the upcoming TdF, we could be lulled into a false sense of suspense if the Jumbo boys are going toe-to-toe with Pog in the Alps & then kaboom, on the Hautacam stage Pog launches on the Aubisque 70km+ from the finish & smashes the field like he's Froome on the Finestre. Or even if this goes down to the final 40km ITT & all 3 (Pog, Jonas & Rog) are within a minute of each other in GC, I would expect Pog to put 2 minutes on everyone again. Yes, even on the flat because at that point of a GT it's more about recuperation anyway.

So instead of planning two-pronged attacks or playing games with Rog & Vingegaard, TJV should look at the parcours & ask themselves 'where' they can ambush Pog with the entire team so he loses two minutes at least.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

So you are saying Vino could go even 40s faster? Jonas did 6,3 W/kg or something like that while braking? I guess Pogacar should be worried after all...

What are you talking about ?

You really think Vingegaard could have put 45 sec + into him ? He seemed stronger yes, but remember last 500m Roglic will take back 10 seconds anyway.

Wow.... ! Take back 10 seconds last 500 m on the strong leader in the stage.... while struggling with a little breakdown. What must have been his drinking bottle in Roglic before that. This is a joke !? Either you don't know anything about cycling or physiology, or you are a troll. When a rider gets tough, he can of course no longer exercise his normal qualities (sprint uphill) and certainly not catching up for 10 seconds against the strongest man in the race.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

I feel like a lot of people act like Pogacar repeated Romme on Col de Portet and Luz Ardiden. Both times he tried to drop Vingegaard and Carapaz and couldn't really do it. Pogacar isn't far away the best climber on any day on any climb like many seem to think. He's world class on most days, invincible on very selective days, but also weak on some days.

That's not the question. Pogacar's opponents also have less good or "weak" days. It is never predictable whether someone will have a severe breakdown. If Pogacar knows no breakdown, then wins the Tour. Because he has the qualities to be tough on one or two mountain stages. Roglic can't do that. Vingegaard may also be able to do that in the future. Hopefully even during the next Tour. But the problem is, he won't be allowed to attack as long as Roglic is properly ranked. Once Roglic can no longer win the Tour, it will probably be too late for Vingegaard to take back time on Pogacar.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

I'm sure everyone has watched both Primoz and Tadej climb in hundreds of videos. They are not the same climber and behave accordingly. Primoz rode Dauphine stage 8 like he was pacing himself. Jonas could prance away but when Primoz liked the terrain he got out of the saddle and rolled the gap closed fairly easily. That Jonas constantly looked back doesn't really relate to effort or outcome. He just did that like Sepp Kuss did on year One of riding with Roglic.
Likewise Tadej can work, spin and look very cool in a group and intimidate them into not attacking but will let loose and f*cking race uphill to get a gap; then settle into a sensible tempo to preserve his advantage. He's exceptionally disciplined for a young rider and, with all of the comparisons with Jonas, Primoz and Tadej; Jonas has not been as deeply proven in a full GT IMO. His presence adds a ton of interest to the races to come but anyone that would want to sideline Primoz for the flavor of the moment is naive. Tadej can psych out almost everyone in the peloton but Primoz.

Roglic was clearly suffering a lot in Vingegaard's wheel. Roglic was also very scarred in the face. Roglic could only limit the damage by climbing with a very high gear, often straight on the pedals. O'Connor was able to hold out and even narrow the gap (because Vingegaard had to wait for Roglic) .
Without Vingegaard's support and slipstream, Roglic would have slumped and overtaken by O'Connor. O'Connor would also have released him in the end. What's more, if Vingegaard had attacked earlier, Roglic would never have lasted to the finish. When O'Connor almost got back into the wheel of both riders, Vingegaard would have been obliged to accelerate again, to win the stage and the Dauphiné. Roglic would probably only have finished third in the general.

This shows Roglic's weak spot. With other topriders, Roglic can only count on staying in the wheel and eventually winning a sprint uphill. For instance the first week, at the Planche des Belles Filles. From stage 11 or 12 on Roglic will start to struggle on the longer climbs.

 

[Zoef-Lightning]

The way I see it is the problem with Tadej Pogacar isn't racing him on the hardest mountains or staying on his wheel (this can be accomplished by riders with a sufficiently high level themselves), or even beating him on certain stages (this has also been accomplished before), no, it's that one day where he goes into a Frenzy & annihilates the field.

Two years ago it was La Planche de Belles Filles, last year Le Grand-Bornand. He has these insane moments where no one can follow & his level spikes.

In the upcoming TdF, we could be lulled into a false sense of suspense if the Jumbo boys are going toe-to-toe with Pog in the Alps & then kaboom, on the Hautacam stage Pog launches on the Aubisque 70km+ from the finish & smashes the field like he's Froome on the Finestre. Or even if this goes down to the final 40km ITT & all 3 (Pog, Jonas & Rog) are within a minute of each other in GC, I would expect Pog to put 2 minutes on everyone again. Yes, even on the flat because at that point of a GT it's more about recuperation anyway.

So instead of planning two-pronged attacks or playing games with Rog & Vingegaard, TJV should look at the parcours & ask themselves 'where' they can ambush Pog with the entire team so he loses two minutes at least.

This time, I totally agree. You have clearly defined Pogacar's strengths. But because Roglic is still regarded as the leader by the team and by himself, there will be little battle from Jumbo. Roglic prefers to stay in the wheel of his opponents, and possibly take a few seconds a few times by sprinting up the fastest uphill. It is quite possible that Roglic will be a few (tens of) seconds in front of Pogacar, after ten days. Still if Roglic survives the cobblestones. But during the second half of the Tour, Pogacar will be devastating a few times.The Roglic from a few years ago might be able to duel with Pogacar. But not the current 32-year-old Roglic versus 23-year-old Pogacar

 

[Eeslliw]

Roglic was clearly suffering a lot in Vingegaard's wheel. Roglic was also very scarred in the face. Roglic could only limit the damage by climbing with a very high gear, often straight on the pedals. O'Connor was able to hold out and even narrow the gap (because Vingegaard had to wait for Roglic) .
Without Vingegaard's support and slipstream, Roglic would have slumped and overtaken by O'Connor. O'Connor would also have released him in the end. What's more, if Vingegaard had attacked earlier, Roglic would never have lasted to the finish. When O'Connor almost got back into the wheel of both riders, Vingegaard would have been obliged to accelerate again, to win the stage and the Dauphiné. Roglic would probably only have finished third in the general.

This shows Roglic's weak spot. With other topriders, Roglic can only count on staying in the wheel and eventually winning a sprint uphill. For instance the first week, at the Planche des Belles Filles. From stage 11 or 12 on Roglic will start to struggle on the longer climbs.

Lol that doesn't make any sense. There is only so much "towing" on 9% gradients (very little). Why didn't O'Connor stay on Roglic's wheel if it's that easy to follow someone uphill (according to you). Roglic was at worst 2nd strongest on that climb.

That's not the question. Pogacar's opponents also have less good or "weak" days. It is never predictable whether someone will have a severe breakdown. If Pogacar knows no breakdown, then wins the Tour. Because he has the qualities to be tough on one or two mountain stages. Roglic can't do that. Vingegaard may also be able to do that in the future. Hopefully even during the next Tour. But the problem is, he won't be allowed to attack as long as Roglic is properly ranked. Once Roglic can no longer win the Tour, it will probably be too late for Vingegaard to take back time on Pogacar.

Jonas not only will be allowed to attack but will have instructions to do so (if capable of course). And Roglic will just follow Pogacar and attack him if he shows and weakness.

 

[Eeslliw]

What are you talking about ?

You said Jonas was braking (not going full gas) and could go at least 40s faster, but he still put 6,3 W/kg on that climb. If that is the case, than Pogacar should indeed be worried because even him couldn't follow Jonas (if he is going easy and still does 6,3 W/kg).

 

[Bonimenier]

Lol that doesn't make any sense. There is only so much "towing" on 9% gradients (very little). Why didn't O'Connor stay on Roglic's wheel if it's that easy to follow someone uphill (according to you). Roglic was at worst 2nd strongest on that climb.

They did ride away from O'Connor on the steep part of 12%. The "towing" afterwards was mainly on 7% slopes where draft still matters a whole lot more than on the 12% part. But yeah, obviously Roglic was 1 of the 2 strongest that day.

 

[HelloDolly]

Lot of talk on here about Vinge and Rog and leadership but listening closely to the interview of Vinge and what he has said he really thinks he can win the Tour. He must have a good idea of what he can do on a climb that is better than Rog
I know riders can big themselves up but he seems very confident as he did in the interview after the last Dauphine stage
In comparison Rog seemed relieved with his Dauphine ?


I guess for me the 40Km ish TT at the end of the Tour is the big question ...Can Vinge be thereabout with Pog ?
If Rog were to win this TT it is possible JV could back him as outright leader

For JV they will need to test climbing legs early to ensure they are backing the right man ?
Of course i both JV leaders can ride along with Pog for most of the Tour but to win JV will imo have to 'sacrifice' one with a long attack to put it to Pog

So will they ride for 1st or will they ride for 2nd and 3rd ??

 

[Escarabajo]

To me it is clear. That Vinge is stronger than Roglic. IMHO. There are already several signs from Rog that he is not at the top level (including several races already) and for me is big question mark whether he can improve on where he is now. For that reason I have the opinion that I have.

Having said that, JV can play their cards good with Roglic and Vinge. That is a powerful duo if you ask me. But only if they know where they are now, otherwise it would be a power race against Pogacar on the last climb which they cannot win head to head. It will be just more bodies on the side of the road.

I am not sure about the approach from Ineos, but I have the weird feeling that they know where they stand with their three leaders. They are just not saying anything.

 

[Oldermanish]

They did ride away from O'Connor on the steep part of 12%. The "towing" afterwards was mainly on 7% slopes where draft still matters a whole lot more than on the 12% part. But yeah, obviously Roglic was 1 of the 2 strongest that day.

Per your point a "draft" only matters on anything above 5% if there is a headwind or you have a field moving fast enough to create a draft. That wasn't the situation. Jonas was protectively pacing but Roglic didn't seem concerned about letting a gap open; he was riding his pace and could easily close the way he is capable. Putting it in a big gear on the flatter portions and motoring back. He doesn't show much until it's important. Neither does Tadej. You won't know they're stressed until that moment passes or something is truly lacking and then a good rider will recoup and accelerate as the terrain suits. Unless an honest assessment comes directly from the rider we are all guessing.

 

[dercuforever]

What are you talking about ?

Wow.... ! Take back 10 seconds last 500 m on the strong leader in the stage.... while struggling with a little breakdown. What must have been his drinking bottle in Roglic before that. This is a joke !? Either you don't know anything about cycling or physiology, or you are a troll. When a rider gets tough, he can of course no longer exercise his normal qualities (sprint uphill) and certainly not catching up for 10 seconds against the strongest man in the race.

Roglic knows how to pace himself to be able to still sprint just before the end. All riders with "punch" produce their best time with a constant effort on most of the climb and a small sprint at the end.
For Vingegaard to take 45 seconds on Roglic, you assumed :

• Roglic was on the extreme limit, ready to blown up, and could not go 1 second faster.
• Vingegaard could go 45 seconds faster than he did : 6.55 w/kg for 34 min, which is better than Armstrong on Hautacam or Huez. And that, just with a higher pace on the last 3-4k, with the same first 5-6k.
• Roglic got towed : on 9%+ without wind, I'd be interested to know how many % you win by being behind someone.

 

[Elos Anjos]

I have been reading a lot of comments and I have nothing to add to what has been already very well put.

Although there are much reasonable comments that present sensible arguments and cast doubts on predicting Tour performances and GT standings based on the results of one stage of the Dauphine and although messages and arguments are made, some of them are permanently ignored, pushed back into previous pages just because some users keep using sheer force in pushing their personal unjustified views

Making predictions on the moment have their fair place in cycling like in all areas of life but insisting on them without good reasons and pretending to turn sports into a science is the lowest of the low demagoguery tricks.

 

[Bonimenier]

Per your point a "draft" only matters on anything above 5% if there is a headwind or you have a field moving fast enough to create a draft.

More than enough studies done to refute the "facts" that you made up in this sentence.

 

[CyclistAbi]

If Vingegaard would have no chance at all we wouldn't have this discussion. The point is for Vingegaard to have a realistic chance. It's by design. JV, Rogla and Vingegaard. All want this and are working hard to achieve it. But for Tour 2022 the plan A in my opinion is still Rogla.

 

[bajbar]

Roglic was clearly suffering a lot in Vingegaard's wheel. Roglic was also very scarred in the face. Roglic could only limit the damage by climbing with a very high gear, often straight on the pedals. O'Connor was able to hold out and even narrow the gap (because Vingegaard had to wait for Roglic) .
Without Vingegaard's support and slipstream, Roglic would have slumped and overtaken by O'Connor. O'Connor would also have released him in the end. What's more, if Vingegaard had attacked earlier, Roglic would never have lasted to the finish. When O'Connor almost got back into the wheel of both riders, Vingegaard would have been obliged to accelerate again, to win the stage and the Dauphiné. Roglic would probably only have finished third in the general.

Now I have seen everything. Not only was Roglič horribly suffering, he was about to totaly crack, get passed by O'Connor and lose more than 1:30 to him (since that was the GC gap before the last stage) - thus finishing behind Kruijswijk who was pulling half the climb (and who apparently the author of the post considers a better climber than Roglič). But that is not all, Roglič look scared... I kid you not... this is some top level comedy gold.

To the author - if you happened to watch Paris Nice this year - especially stage 8 on Eze. Or Giro 2019 every time the road went uphill. That was Roglič suffering. This was Roglič going hard, yes, but with everything completely under control.

 

[boliver523]

If Vingegaard really wants to win the tour he really needs to train that damn TT, because not peak roglic took him 30s, Pogacar is gonna take him 2 minutes in the final time trial and Jumbo Visma is gonna repeat the 2020 disaster.

 

[HelloDolly]

Making predictions on the moment have their fair place in cycling like in all areas of life but insisting on them without good reasons and pretending to turn sports into a science is the lowest of the low demagoguery tricks.

I wouldn't take it too seriously its just speculation which is all part of why fans engage in the sport
The truth is no one on here knows what will happen at the Tour ... the riders and teams keep much of their prep and form hidden
People are speculating about what they have read and seen and its just a bit of fun

 

[Cookster15]

I don't think we should read much into Roglic's suffering in the mountains at the Dauphine. I think it was a very good result for him knowing he is returning from injury so he won't be close to best level yet.

We were writing him off not long ago. I think Roglic has cause for optimism to be this good so soon after his return from injury. He should be able to pressure Pogacar at the TdF and be superior than his teammate who seems encouraged by his brief dropping of Pogacar on the Ventoux last year with Roglic absent. This is my speculation