Beating Pogacar is going to take a lot more than the damn TT. Especially the last TT that is more down to recovery than technique.
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Show me on the hill, Dude. Studies don't count for sh*t on undulating terrain with variable wind exposures... maybe in the Zwiftlab where racers don't live as opposed to the real world. Been there, raced that, won that. So has Roglic, Pogi, Geraint and anyone that's using a pacer.
Zoef-Lightning
BANNED
Again, you don't understand cycling. Of course, Vingegaard will be allowed to attact. But only with the intention to wear out Pogacar and to leave Roglic in the wheel. What Roglic always does, by the way. Only if Roglic turns out to be too weak, Vingegaard can get his chance. But that's a dangerous tactic. Roglic will then no longer be able to support Vingegaard, and I don't think Vingegaard can beat Pogacar on his own today.
Vingegaard does have a (small) chance to win the Tour if Roglic rides in support of Vingegaard. But not vice versa. When everything is put on Roglic, Roglic is definitely not going to win. Obviously not Vingegaard, because no support from Roglic. In those circumstances, there is a chance that both teammates will not even make the podium.
Some very strong feelings in this thread!...I agree 100 % with your point in bold, above.
Roglic is not a "leave them all in the dust" rider like Contador or Pogacar. He is an amazing TT'er (PDBF excepted, but even there he was top 5 vs specialists like dumo and wout), and a VERY GOOD climber. That is a winning formula for just about anyGT in the last, oh, 50 years. He just happened to run into a buzzsaw named Pogacar. Of course he can win, but it will take his usual strong TT, and either a team attack on UAE or a bad few days by Pog. (and it bears repeating that in head to head GTs that both finished, it's 1-1)
Should Vingegaard be allowed to go up the road if, say, he's feeling superhuman and Pog merely human, or Pog attacks and Roglic can't follow? Of course! That's the point of having co-leaders, Even Roglic would certainly agree. But, should Vingegaard drop Roglic if he's merely losing a bit of time? No way.
As for Roglic's current form: It's hard to say. In theory, he doesn't want to come in too hot, like Giro 2019. But he does need to prove that his knee injury, whatever it was, is healed. He did not look as good as Vingegaard on the Solaison, it's true. But that is a hard, hard climb, and it was very hot that day. So maybe Roglic wasn't on his best form or was feeling the heat. O'Connor came back a bit because the top 2 slowed once they got a gap, and why wouldn't they?
Zoef-Lightning
BANNED
The top 2 slowed, because Roglic was agonising. Vingegaard waiting on Roglic was the right tactic at that moment. Roglic was the leader and still had a certain margin. But I'm convinced that if the arrival was a few kilometres away, O'Connor would have come back. Vingegaard would have been obliged to leave Roglic behind so he could still take the stage victory. And even the final victory. But that was the Dauphiné. If during the Tour, when both teammates are on the attack, or in the defence if Pogacar attacked, then one teammate cannot afford to wait for the other teammate who is in trouble. Because then you lose the Tour as a team.
We don't know which of the two teammates will be the best in the Tour. Despite his overall victory, Roglic was certainly less good than Vingegaard. During the Tour it can already be different. Still, I would rather bet on Vingegaard as the ultimate leader. He is young and getting better. The reverse is true for Roglic. Roglic is therefore still subject to minor breakdowns during some stage races.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see which team tactics Jumbo will apply. Hopefully not the wrong tactic by putting everything on Roglic
Roglic agonising
All you keep writing is top notch cringe worthy. I dare you to take your crackpot bold assumptions and make a fortune by betting.
@Zoef-Lightning
There is that. On another hand you could just be underestimating Roglič and by doing that his ability to beat Pogačar. And yes some tend to forget that already happened on numerous occasions in the past.
There is that. On another hand you could just be underestimating Roglič and by doing that his ability to beat Pogačar. And yes some tend to forget that already happened on numerous occasions in the past.
Roglic has been tossed onto the scrapheap repeatedly already. For example there was a hilarious moment in the Netflix Movistar documentary when José Luis Arrieta (their DS) said on the morning of the Vuelta 2020 Alto de Moncalvillo stage "Roglic is not up to it in this Vuelta" during their team bus meeting. Result? Roglic stomped Carapaz & won the climb. Sure that was perhaps just stereotypical Movistar doing & saying Movistar things, but the sentiment of Roglic being on a downward trajectory has often made many people say 'he's finished'. Like before the Olympics ITT last year.
He's not a 'normal rider'. His background is not standard, he's not standard. His age isn't standard either since he started so late (which shouldn't even be considered a factor at all when Geraint Thomas won his TdF at 32).
Now maybe Vingegaard is really stronger this year (I'm not a psychic), but if there's one rider in the peloton who has earned a "let's wait & see" before making a definitive judgement on his condition, it's Primoz Roglic.
He's not a 'normal rider'. His background is not standard, he's not standard. His age isn't standard either since he started so late (which shouldn't even be considered a factor at all when Geraint Thomas won his TdF at 32).
Now maybe Vingegaard is really stronger this year (I'm not a psychic), but if there's one rider in the peloton who has earned a "let's wait & see" before making a definitive judgement on his condition, it's Primoz Roglic.
Zoef-Lightning
BANNED
Roglic agonising
All you keep writing is top notch cringe worthy. I dare you to take your crackpot bold assumptions and make a fortune by betting.
If you haven't seen Roglic agonising, you're clearly not a cycling expert. Or you have sh.... in your eyes.
The contrast after the arrival between Vingegaard and Roglic was also striking. Vingegaard looked relatively fresh, Roglic seemed to be 70 years old.
I would say your not the cycling expert, based on this thread.
Zoef-Lightning
BANNED
Well, let's wait and see during and after the Tour. But I have regularly noticed that when people make a mistake here and call others incompetent, afterwards, if they are proven wrong, they forget to admit they are wrong.
I hope you have the guts to react then and apologize.
Great idea for you to shut up until TdF. What an annoying "cyclist expert" you are.
Pretty sure even the best Grand Tour riders in history were spotted agonising whilst riding themselves into form in lead up races. You know Roglic was injured right? The Dauphine means squat. He will be MUCH stronger come the TdF.
Will be interesting to see though. When Rogla will be 70 years old. If he will still beat a 40 year old Pogi on some races. For sure they will still compete on some events in Slovenia. After retirement from pro cycling.
And the big question will be:
How did the age difference between them change from 9 years, to 30 years?
Watch out, if you inflate your ego a bit more, you might get stuck in a doorway... Don't say I didn't warn you
sh.. in your eyes... Really?
Zoef-Lightning
BANNED
You are worth your nickname. And I won't "shut up" until or during TdF. Why should I ? Again, if Roglic and Vingegaard don't start on the same base, and if everything is put on Roglic, then jumbo will definitely lose the Tour.
Even if both work well together, it will be very difficult to beat Pogacar. And by working well together I don't mean that Vingegaard has to do the work for Roglic.
So feel free to smurf on.
At the risk of turning into LR’s cyclingnews’ marketing ambassador, I wanted to bump my previous post with their latest analysis that shows that Pogacar’s numbers were more impressive in 2020 when he was battling Roglic than in 2021 when he crushed the field without Roglic. It also indicated that some of Roglic’s 2021 Vuelta climbing was at least as high level as Pogi’s 2021 Tour climbing. Get hyped and hope for full form all around and a crash less Tour. https://lanternerouge.com.au/2022/01/28/the-day-when-pogacar-won-tour-de-france-2021/As another poster indicated, Roglic looked nothing like he normally does when at his limit. I agree that Vingegaard also clearly could have gone faster. How, then, do we reconcile that with the fact that Vingegaard was already riding out of his mind during this stage? If he could have gone even faster, this was just a mind boggling outlier performance from him, which would in fact indicate that he has taken a massive step up from a 7 and change minutes back in the Tour rider to Roglic/Pogacar level. He had certainly not taken that step up in Ilultzia.
And Pogs best 2020 performance isn't up to the level of Piancavallo 2020. Watts/kg in isolation aren't that great of a metric. I think LR very deliberately overstates the importance of that metric to get attention.
I don't think Pog is invincible, but it's not because he's this overrated climber who wasn't that impressive in 2021.
Like adding Beixalis data to his power curve for 2021 is just hilarious.
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