Critérium du Dauphiné 2025, June 8 - 15

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And you missed my point, maybe in a follow up: JV tried to take it to Tadej in all forms including descents, pushing on the flats prior to the last climb, etc. Tadej rode much more intelligently than their collective and ultimately wasted effort. His output on this stage had to be major percentage points below Jonas and the other JV crew before the last climb. And, to be honest; I only watched the last 60km.
I've ridden those roads in that heat and, very importantly; in those headwinds down the valley prior to the last climb. Tadej stayed under JV cover, retrieved a bottle for Sivakov who paced until he couldn't and then attacked to minimize the combatants. Smart choice made easier because Jonas and others threw in the towel.
You were very observant that he got out of the saddle to attack this time where on several notable recent stages he did not. On those other occasions his guys ramped the pace up so high it wasn't necessary and his pilot fish, Vindegaard was not prepared. Blowing up on a hill is easy after that much work. Today Sivakov wagged his elbow and then he blew up completely. Tadej jumped out of the saddle as they were nearly at a standstill and Jonas responded, albeit a little late.
Once Jonas checked his pulse/wattage he assumed the one intelligent response of the day: ride his pace to maintain the small gap. That was fine with Pogacar who recognizes there is one more stage and nothing more to do but stay out of trouble to win the overall and finalize this prep race. Yes, that's all it was to him and presumably everyone that rode treated it similarly. They'll all make improvements before July and we'll get to see the next edition.
As for Jonas' expression on the line; watch the 7 km before and he was totally under control riding in the big ring at almost identical tempo to TP, and at a well disciplined output. No heroically painful facial contortions; just the brutal efficiency he is capable of. His last km was all out and, at 6,000 feet you would look like that if you'd only ridden a few km warmup before that attacking effort.
What's discouraging in the disparity of our impressions is that we should see the same, entire video. I stand by the 60km I saw.
You're correct: the physiological gap is surely not as close as 15 seconds because Pogacar didn't require more time. At almost any time Jonas' composure was evident on his face. It's very easy to see because he was right behind Pogacar for nearly 100 km until Tadej dropped him. Then the dramatic look emerged in the last km. Fact.
I think they had a slight tailwind in the valley yesterday, and Vingegaard was on the wheel of Pogi for most of the stage.
 
And you missed my point, maybe in a follow up: JV tried to take it to Tadej in all forms including descents, pushing on the flats prior to the last climb, etc. Tadej rode much more intelligently than their collective and ultimately wasted effort. His output on this stage had to be major percentage points below Jonas and the other JV crew before the last climb. And, to be honest; I only watched the last 60km.
I've ridden those roads in that heat and, very importantly; in those headwinds down the valley prior to the last climb. Tadej stayed under JV cover, retrieved a bottle for Sivakov who paced until he couldn't and then attacked to minimize the combatants. Smart choice made easier because Jonas and others threw in the towel.
You were very observant that he got out of the saddle to attack this time where on several notable recent stages he did not. On those other occasions his guys ramped the pace up so high it wasn't necessary and his pilot fish, Vindegaard was not prepared. Blowing up on a hill is easy after that much work. Today Sivakov wagged his elbow and then he blew up completely. Tadej jumped out of the saddle as they were nearly at a standstill and Jonas responded, albeit a little late.
Once Jonas checked his pulse/wattage he assumed the one intelligent response of the day: ride his pace to maintain the small gap. That was fine with Pogacar who recognizes there is one more stage and nothing more to do but stay out of trouble to win the overall and finalize this prep race. Yes, that's all it was to him and presumably everyone that rode treated it similarly. They'll all make improvements before July and we'll get to see the next edition.
As for Jonas' expression on the line; watch the 7 km before and he was totally under control riding in the big ring at almost identical tempo to TP, and at a well disciplined output. No heroically painful facial contortions; just the brutal efficiency he is capable of. His last km was all out and, at 6,000 feet you would look like that if you'd only ridden a few km warmup before that attacking effort.
What's discouraging in the disparity of our impressions is that we should see the same, entire video. I stand by the 60km I saw.
You're correct: the physiological gap is surely not as close as 15 seconds because Pogacar didn't require more time. At almost any time Jonas' composure was evident on his face. It's very easy to see because he was right behind Pogacar for nearly 100 km until Tadej dropped him. Then the dramatic look emerged in the last km. Fact.
Great observations.

And yes, Vinge looked alright riding his own tempo on the climb. Composed as you say. The facial expressions only happened when he got close to the finish line.
 
Today's finish:

6268a


They used the same roads in the 2023 Tour de l'Avenir stage, won by Archie Ryan:

View: https://youtu.be/_WtKY_MJycc?t=5197
 
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Great observations.

And yes, Vinge looked alright riding his own tempo on the climb. Composed as you say. The facial expressions only happened when he got close to the finish line.
He looked "alright," not easy and settled. At one point he narrowed the gap to around 7-10 seconds and then Pog just upped the tempo a bit and it was 15-20 seconds. Making that junction would have been a huge psychological boost if nothing else. What I saw was Pog not bothered a bit after a 5 second effort to drop Jonas. If Jonas could have caught Pog he would have.

I'm still not sure, however, why Pog gave up 15 seconds in the last 500 meters. Anything could happen today; seems odd not to push hard to the line. So either Jonas saved one last burst of energy or Pog bonked a tiny bit or lost focus. Sure, Pog likely has no problems with Jonas/Visma today and even attacks at the end for the stage/GC combo, but that was essentially a small gift to Jonas yesterday.
 
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Jul 15, 2024
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I'm still not sure, however, why Pog gave up 15 seconds in the last 500 meters. Anything could happen today; seems odd not to push hard to the line. So either Jonas saved one last burst of energy or Pog bonked a tiny bit or lost focus. Sure, Pog likely has no problems with Jonas/Visma today and even attacks at the end for the stage/GC combo, but that was essentially a small gift to Jonas yesterday.
It was mostly arrogant I think, a spit on the face of the competition, look how easy it is I'm not even pushing it to the max. Also it was a bit stupid, what if he has some problem today towards the end of the stage and loses a few minutes. They chase like crazy and pog goes überalien on the final climb, but Jonas ends up winning with 40s+bonuses, then that "show off" would have costed him the whole race. It's very unlikely, but anything can always happen. So not smart to gift free seconds to the competition.
 
I'm still not sure, however, why Pog gave up 15 seconds in the last 500 meters. Anything could happen today; seems odd not to push hard to the line.
He rode yesterday like he doesnt consider JV an equal anymore. He's always been anxious to take every little advantage he can get against him. Now I think he's confident the game is all on his raquet. Also, its clear his main aim for the dauphine was to verify his level is there with that being clear on friday his main goal now is just to make sure not to overexcert himself and put his shape in jeopardy.