Froome was announced as moving to ISN in July 2020 before racing restarted. He had ridden the UAE tour at that stage in 2020. His form looked suspect but the full hopelessness of 2020 hadn't been revealed.I'm not committed to the Cavendish example at all. The specific example was not the point. It's just an example of something very unlikely.
No it's not impossible that Froome comes back strong but I don't think it was at all likely after a very bad 2020 and given Froome's age. Like I said in my first post, if this had been the end of 2019 I would have found the contract somewhat more reasonable but at the end of 2020 it was just never going to be good odds to give Froome such a long contract. I'm not saying that Froome did not justify any contract just not the one he was given.
I find this distinction between 2019 and 2020 to be key.
But you don't seem to find this distinction between 2019 and 2020 as important. Because 2020 is deemed to be part of the normal recovery process. I think the warning signs were there though and that given his age due diligence would dictate to be careful with the contract.
Them having money to burn does not excuse this in my opinion. Saying that it's okay to just gamble excess money away because you have enough of it anyway is the fast track to 'nouveau poverty'. The odds still need to be there and they weren't there in the case of Froome imo.
But we can agree to disagree as far as I am concerned. Was interesting though.
https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider/christopher-froome/2020
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...eos-at-the-end-of-2020-tour-de-france-cycling