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Critérium du Dauphiné May 30-June 6 2021

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Tim Cahill

May 6, 2021
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Joux Plane is it?

YpNUKK9.jpg
 
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Logic-is-your-friend

Logic-is-your-friend

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Leinster said:
They’re reasonable benchmarks, and Dumoulin’s ITT WC is especially fair given the route he won his title on, and the similarity to the Planche TT route. If Roglic underperformed, it was by small margins, and not the 59s margin by which Pogacar won the Tour.


Roglic’s 2 big GT “losses” have been down to miscalculation and bad tactics rather than an outright choke; he and Nibali ought to have been more alive to the threat of Carapaz, instead of just watching each other. And Jumbo should have been more focused on putting time into Pogacar, especially once it became clear Bernal was not a threat.
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My point was that a former WC title in itself is rather meaningless. The tact that Dumoulin is a TT'er that is also a great climber, is not meaningless. Ganna is the current WC, I would never have expected him to win on such a course, regardless of his WC title.

I agree on him not underperforming "that much", but still you would have expected him closer to Dumoulin, van Aert and Porte, or even better. It's Pogacar who "overperformed" into WTF territory. Like i said in my previous post. I don't think we're disagreeing actually.
 
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Escarabajo

Escarabajo

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I see that Bahrain upped their game. Maybe the Middle eastern teams are investing quite a bit of money. Compare to other sports they must be saying this is a piece of cake.

Porte will find a way to lose tomorrow. He will have a lot of pressure defending this jersey.
And to the person saying that Porte should be the leader and he will be the only one to keep up with the Slovenians: LOL.
 
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Escarabajo

Escarabajo

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Logic-is-your-friend said:
Ineos have no-one that can beat the Slovenians one on one. All for one isn't going to cut it this time, they'll just be doing the work for the Slovenians. Imho, they have to go guerilla with as many guys as possible on the last climb. UAE and TJV should take responsibility to control the race anyway.
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The only thing that I would change on this assessment is that they should try opportunities from far away because they have way too many riders to do that. They don't have to wait for the last climb. Now, if nobody want to be the sacrificial lamb, then we will have a butchery of Ineos riders on the last climb with nothing to show for. Again that's just me.
 
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Escarabajo

Escarabajo

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Escarabajo

Escarabajo

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Red Rick said:
Ah yes, Pogacar rode the craziest ITT in the last 20 years cause Roglic was choking.
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Maybe That ITT is comparable with Indurain in 1992 and Lemond in 1989. I am not sure if I consider Ulrich in 2003 but if we do not, then it would be near 28 years since we saw something so impressive. To me is the most impressive ever. Lemond had a strong reason to do it with his special bike, and Indurain was fighting a swords war with a machine gun! IMHO.
 
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Eeslliw

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BigCoward said:
I don't rate him anymore of a favourite based on previous grand tour performances than Carapaz or Thomas and well below Pogacar.
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Yeah, that makes sense.

Carapaz couldn't beat Roglic in Vuelta2020, when he had no real preparation for this race after racing full on for 3 months (Tour de l'ain , Dauphine, TDF, WC RC, LBL)
Thomas who crash even more than Roglic and haven't won for 3y or something after winning TDF2018

Last 5 GT of Roglic (4th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 1st). If that is chocking, than what are others doing.
 
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Cookster15

Cookster15

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Rackham said:
Carapaz was seemingly incapable of winning a stage in the Vuelta. Roglic won 4 because he's a better time trialist & he's got a monstrous mountain sprint. That's why Carapaz will still struggle to beat Roglic this summer, notwithstanding the fact Roglic was also out of gas at the end of last season whereas this time he'll be fresh. So that's a lot against Richard Carapaz.

But this is cycling (anything can happen) & the stuff we're seeing (Astana & Bahrain upping their game) means we just can't be sure. But Pogacar & Roglic are still the clear favorites, for good reason.
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I agree. Well said. The TdF isn't decided yet and anything can still happen. Funny how Carapaz was under rated before Roglic and Nibali let him ride away on that stage in the 2019 Giro but I am not convinced that Richard isn't a little over rated since then. We will see.

But for Ineos's sake I hope Thomas can fire in the TdF and do Carapaz and Porte justice.
 
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BigCoward

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Eeslliw said:
Yeah, that makes sense.

Carapaz couldn't beat Roglic in Vuelta2020, when he had no real preparation for this race after racing full on for 3 months (Tour de l'ain , Dauphine, TDF, WC RC, LBL)
Thomas who crash even more than Roglic and haven't won for 3y or something after winning TDF2018

Last 5 GT of Roglic (4th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 1st). If that is chocking, than what are others doing.
Click to expand...

Carapaz prep wasnt ideal either, and he lost on time bonuses. Roglic has won Vueltas, its not the same, nobody builds their season round it.

When he went to a giro or a tdf as favourite he couldn't deliver.
 
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Sciatic

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movingtarget said:
Pretty obvious at the moment that Ineos don't have a clear leader for the Tour. I think they will keep an open mind until the first few mountain stages.
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in case it hasn’t been said yet, For those of you (not just you) assuming how things will play out at the Tour based on this Dauphine’ performance. . . Ivan Mayo says hi.

ed. So sorry: Iban, I didn’t notice that autocorrect had served you wrong!
 
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Cian

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Eeslliw said:
Yeah, that makes sense.

Carapaz couldn't beat Roglic in Vuelta2020, when he had no real preparation for this race after racing full on for 3 months (Tour de l'ain , Dauphine, TDF, WC RC, LBL)
Thomas who crash even more than Roglic and haven't won for 3y or something after winning TDF2018

Last 5 GT of Roglic (4th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd, 1st). If that is chocking, than what are others doing.
Click to expand...
What do you think Carapaz was doing before last years Vuelta? Oh, that's right he was also racing. He had 33 race days between the return to racing and the start of the Vuelta, while Roglic had 32.

Neither of them were preparing for the Vuelta. Roglic beat him fair and square, but he didn't come in at a huge disadvantage. They were fairly evenly matched.
 
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johnymax

johnymax

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Cian said:
What do you think Carapaz was doing before last years Vuelta? Oh, that's right he was also racing. He had 33 race days between the return to racing and the start of the Vuelta, while Roglic had 32.

Neither of them were preparing for the Vuelta. Roglic beat him fair and square, but he didn't come in at a huge disadvantage. They were fairly evenly matched.
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It's true. The difference was that Roglič was in peak form from the beginning and won almost every race he entered, while Carapaz was building form to be in peak shape for Giro/Vuelta. He wasn't supposed to ride the Tour at first, but with Froome and Thomas not in form, he had to ride the Tour as a helper (later stage hunter) while not being in top shape. I think it only helped him to sharpen his preparation for the Vuelta. What I do think though is, if the Vuelta had been 3 stages longer with at least one hard mountain stage, Carapaz would have probably won that Vuelta ahead of Roglič.
 
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