Dan Martin - "Now I know you can win clean"

[JV1973]

Yes you have. Repeatedly.

Do we really need to post the chart with the suspicious blood readings by year yet again? You may remember it. It shows a sudden change in blood values consistent with a large scale shift from EPO to blood bags once the EPO test arrives. Something that also fits with the evidence provided by Hamilton etc. And then it shows an equally sudden decline in suspicious readings indicative of large blood transfusions once the passport arrives. And this in turn is correlated with a drastic reduction in the number of truly superhuman performances we see on the climbs when people do the w/kg sums.

So doping still happens, but the risks have increased and the amounts you can use have decreased. Which makes clean riders, in theory, competitive in a way that they haven't been since 1990. Not because the pre-1990 peloton was clean but because the advantages doping could give you pre-EPO were relatively marginal.

It's not that complex an argument. And you've heard it repeatedly. It's one thing to believe that there are problems with that line of argument. It's quite another to pretend that nobody has ever explained it.

Personally, I wish that sceptics were more interested in furthering the argument by gathering data on suspicious climbing (and TTing) performances and less interested in general sneering about winners.

Perfectly logical analysis. Careful in judging time trial performances, as aerodynamics play such a large role and can shift rider performances a lot more than on climbs. Climbing performances, however, I think are very much apples to apples from one year to the next. Not down to 1%, as wind shifts, pavement deteriorates or gets repaved, but good for an overall glimpse as to what is actually going on.

 

[Catwhoorg]

That one ?

 

[Pentacycle]

Perfectly logical analysis. Careful in judging time trial performances, as aerodynamics play such a large role and can shift rider performances a lot more than on climbs. Climbing performances, however, I think are very much apples to apples from one year to the next. Not down to 1%, as wind shifts, pavement deteriorates or gets repaved, but good for an overall glimpse as to what is actually going on.

How did Dan Martin ride compared to previous years? Was it really the clearing up of his allergies that won him the race or was the overall pace slower?

 

[JimmyFingers]

Yes you have. Repeatedly.

Do we really need to post the chart with the suspicious blood readings by year yet again? You may remember it. It shows a sudden change in blood values consistent with a large scale shift from EPO to blood bags once the EPO test arrives. Something that also fits with the evidence provided by Hamilton etc. And then it shows an equally sudden decline in suspicious readings indicative of large blood transfusions once the passport arrives. And this in turn is correlated with a drastic reduction in the number of truly superhuman performances we see on the climbs when people do the w/kg sums.

So doping still happens, but the risks have increased and the amounts you can use have decreased. Which makes clean riders, in theory, competitive in a way that they haven't been since 1990. Not because the pre-1990 peloton was clean but because the advantages doping could give you pre-EPO were relatively marginal.

It's not that complex an argument. And you've heard it repeatedly. It's one thing to believe that there are problems with that line of argument. It's quite another to pretend that nobody has ever explained it.

Personally, I wish that sceptics were more interested in furthering the argument by gathering data on suspicious climbing (and TTing) performances and less interested in general sneering about winners.

You need to post here more often: solid post, solid reasoning. Particularly liked the last paragraph.

Of course the main reason this thread is ballooning out is not questions of Dan Martin as much as the fact he name-checked Wiggins as a clean rider.

 

[Fearless Greg Lemond]

It's not that complex an argument. And you've heard it repeatedly. It's one thing to believe that there are problems with that line of argument. It's quite another to pretend that nobody has ever explained it.

Because, only obscure Russians and some sixth tier Colombians use GW501? Because gendoping is a myth? Because every team has a medical staff a general hospital would be proud of?

 

[Tyler'sTwin]

Not saying you're a crackpot. Just saying the blood profile was almost exactly what you should see in a clean rider. The analysis by Dr. Mike Puchowicz, known as veloclinic on twitter or capn', pretty much said the same thing. Drop him a line, if you think my interpretation is wrong.

And yes, you are correct, that the biggest issue facing cycling now is that it's difficult to believe anyone about anything. I get that.

Truly a glowing endorsement.

may 3rd hgb 16.0

or hgb just before giro start

nearly equals his season high 16.1

not normal

(at this point in the season , yuh’d expect some volume expansion and a lower hgb)

explanations

a. Altitude camp ?

vaughters says no

b. lab error

vaughters says yes

hct at giro start was high across the board

so did the lab screw up ?

ie not good

or was the entire peloton doped ?

hehe

also not good

@Ben_M_Berry problem is yuh start explainin stuff then you create bigger problems, ex if the16 ain't real then yuh lose the nice hgb decline

@Ben_M_Berry or if yuh toss out the 1.13 retic then yer giro retic is .2 lower than pre giro n yer 16 becomes that much more suspect

Ryder has a significantly higher than normal Hb and retics. Natural or consistently doping with EPO / that new altitude simulating pill? You didn't give the doc a whole lot of data. Just 8 datapoints from a 7-month period - nov-11 to may-12. How about some data from Ryder's non GT-winner days for comparision?

Remind us again what Dr. P said about Millar's and Twiggo's blood data...

 

[Dear Wiggo]

Just saying the blood profile was almost exactly what you should see in a clean rider. The analysis by Dr. Mike Puchowicz, known as veloclinic on twitter or capn', pretty much said the same thing. Drop him a line, if you think my interpretation is wrong.

Almost what you see in a clean rider.
Almost confirmed by Veloclinic.

 

[Zinoviev Letter]

Because, only obscure Russians and some sixth tier Colombians use GW501? Because gendoping is a myth? Because every team has a medical staff a general hospital would be proud of?

Those are three quite distinct questions.

1) It's not yet clear who has been using GW501516, nor what its benefits are, nor just how drastic its health risks are likely to be. It's entirely possible that it was only being used amongst the crazy, desparate or ignorant. Or that it was widely used but doesn't provide much benefit.

2) Genedoping is an area I'm largely ignorant of. However, at least as I understand it, it is likely a problem for the future rather than the last few years.

3) Cycling is an extreme endurance sport that puts strains on the body it was never meant to endure. It also involves regular injuries, and sicknesses associated with regular travel, as well as batteries of tests in training. It is by no means surprising that teams have in house doctors.

Now, that in house doctor system also provided an extremely useful way of setting up and running centralised doping programmes. But again, as I understand it, the risks associated with raids etc caused a general phasing out of internal programmes in favour of out-sourced ones some time ago.

 

[Tyler'sTwin]

I put far more credence in the fact that Dan has never been a Ferrari customer....can't say the same about Kreuziger

So, what exactly is the difference between Roman K and TD, CVV and DZ? I know, the Garmin crew redeemed themselves by finally doing the right thing, and by "doing the right thing", I mean telling truths about Lance's doping and half-truths or lies about their own doping after having been garanteed virtual amnesty... Maybe Roman would be willing to admit doping with MF in -07 if he was allowed to escape a proper ban and come out of it looking like a victim and a hero? I'd respect these guys if they actually accepted responsibility for their own actions, which means sitting out a full season (at least) and dropping the whole "Lance and Johan made me do it! Please feel sorry for me!" routine. But what can you expect when their DS thinks not stealing as much money as he could have constitutes taking responsibility for his actions? "I walked away from a 500k€/year contract I earned through sporting fraud." We're all very impressed by your sacrifice!

 

[The Hitch]

In the Dan Martin thread?

The thread does seem to me to be more about what Martin said than anything else.

 

[Jeremiah]

Depends on the definition of the word "is."

 

[Race Radio]

So, what exactly is the difference between Roman K and TD, CVV and DZ? I know, the Garmin crew redeemed themselves by finally doing the right thing, and by "doing the right thing", I mean telling truths about Lance's doping and half-truths or lies about their own doping after having been garanteed virtual amnesty... Maybe Roman would be willing to admit doping with MF in -07 if he was allowed to escape a proper ban and come out of it looking like a victim and a hero? I'd respect these guys if they actually accepted responsibility for their own actions, which means sitting out a full season (at least) and dropping the whole "Lance and Johan made me do it! Please feel sorry for me!" routine. But what can you expect when their DS thinks not stealing as much money as he could have constitutes taking responsibility for his actions? "I walked away from a 500k€/year contract I earned through sporting fraud." We're all very impressed by your sacrifice!

I must be missing something, Dan Martin rode on Postal in 2001?

 

[JV1973]

Truly a glowing endorsement.





Ryder has a significantly higher than normal Hb and retics. Natural or consistently doping with EPO / that new altitude simulating pill? You didn't give the doc a whole lot of data. Just 8 datapoints from a 7-month period - nov-11 to may-12. How about some data from Ryder's non GT-winner days for comparision?

Remind us again what Dr. P said about Millar's and Twiggo's blood data...

In context of his overall profile, 16 is unremarkable. Again, you have zero knowledge re this stuff, so it's ridiculous for you to analyze. Why did Dr. Mike stop posting? Because he realized he didn't quite have context either and wasn't able to properly analyze, as he hasn't seen many profiles (he's a great doc, just not a hematologist). Get an anti-doping expert in to look at this profile. A guy who's been doing it for years. If that guy says there's something remarkable, send me your bank info, and you'll win the bet. How's that?

Not only was Ryder's blood data not flagged, it was put in the "negligible risk" category by the AMPU, which analyzes the data and came up with the "risk profiles" pre 2010 TdF, in which Ryder also measured low risk, with an Hb of 16 and retics in the +1 category.

Anyhow, I've learned my lesson, don't release blood profiles that are "negiglble risk" as the forum has a treasure trove of self proclaimed experts that are at the ready to do their analysis, which will differ greatly from the AMPU.

So, once again, you guys win. Bravo. Cycling: Everyone's doping. Especially Garmin.

Have at it.

 

[JV1973]

So, what exactly is the difference between Roman K and TD, CVV and DZ? I know, the Garmin crew redeemed themselves by finally doing the right thing, and by "doing the right thing", I mean telling truths about Lance's doping and half-truths or lies about their own doping after having been garanteed virtual amnesty... Maybe Roman would be willing to admit doping with MF in -07 if he was allowed to escape a proper ban and come out of it looking like a victim and a hero? I'd respect these guys if they actually accepted responsibility for their own actions, which means sitting out a full season (at least) and dropping the whole "Lance and Johan made me do it! Please feel sorry for me!" routine. But what can you expect when their DS thinks not stealing as much money as he could have constitutes taking responsibility for his actions? "I walked away from a 500k€/year contract I earned through sporting fraud." We're all very impressed by your sacrifice!

I'm so glad to be in the presence of someone with such moral fortitude.

 

[Catwhoorg]

Anyhow, I've learned my lesson, don't release blood profiles that are "negiglble risk" as the forum has a treasure trove of self proclaimed experts that are at the ready to do their analysis, which will differ greatly from the AMPU.

And there we have it straight from the horse's mouth (if you will pardon the expression JV).

The one team who actually did release profiles have got fed up with the armchair analysts.

Not that I blame you one bit.

 

[Schwartzchov]

So, once again, you guys win. Bravo. Cycling: Everyone's doping. Especially Garmin.

Well done to Dan and Garmin for delivering victory at Liege. And of course a clean victory. Its incredible what a hard work ethic, total dedication, and endless hours of hard training will bring. (20,000 odd miles of training per year) And of course talent. Superb stuff.
You must be having a right old laugh at the conspiracy theorists in the Clinic who sniff "it has to be drugs" whenever a great rider such as Dan delivers a fine victory.....

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Anyhow, I've learned my lesson, don't release blood profiles that are "negiglble risk" as the forum has a treasure trove of self proclaimed experts that are at the ready to do their analysis, which will differ greatly from the AMPU.

So, once again, you guys win. Bravo. Cycling: Everyone's doping. Especially Garmin.

This takes me back to the thread about Talansky from back at the Vuelta when his comments after the race were being discussed. It's a difficult balancing act because publishing blood profiles etc are one of very few things a team can do to show that it is clean, as after all "show not tell" is a major point towards credibility, however as I said then, if I was a pro cyclist, knowing what I've seen happen to every profile released thus far, there would be no way, no way on earth that I'd bother publishing mine, clean or otherwise. Most people have made their mind up and confirmation bias reigns supreme in a place like this. Those that want to believe there is doping will look for the slightest fluctuation to pounce upon (or, if none exist, point out that a profile that is TOO consistent is also highly suspicious as one would expect differences in conditions and conditioning to yield some differences in results)... while those that want to believe there is none would seek to find justifications for any anomaly, even if things look pretty grim even to the untrained eye (take Lance's 2009 Tour levels, where if I remember correctly the hct% would decrease then jump back up after the rest days, which is something noticeable to anybody with a sense for pattern recognition even if they can't explain or don't want to use doping as an explanation). I wouldn't post my biopassport, so I don't blame you for deciding against doing it in future.

But then, I don't feel that I, as a fan, owe the cyclists belief either. I don't feel indebted to the riders out there on that front. I will choose whether or not I believe them. Dan Martin on Sunday, I am, until further notice, happy to believe. A guy who has accumulated a very good history of placements in the hilly Classics and who is still getting stronger (still pretty young but heading towards the classic 'peak years') takes advantage of being in the right move in a somewhat conservatively raced edition where he and his teammate had the advantage of numbers in the closing stages? Sounds about as believable as any hilly Classic triumph can get. I see no reason to suspect Dan Martin, either yesterday or otherwise, and he's certainly never had any performance that I've baulked at on his way to the top.

And sure, lots of people here are calling your guys into question, but if we take you on your word and Garmin is a 100% clean team as it purports to be, then the Clinic is, albeit not in the nicest of fashions, paying you one hell of a compliment.

 

[JV1973]

This takes me back to the thread about Talansky from back at the Vuelta when his comments after the race were being discussed. It's a difficult balancing act because publishing blood profiles etc are one of very few things a team can do to show that it is clean, as after all "show not tell" is a major point towards credibility, however as I said then, if I was a pro cyclist, knowing what I've seen happen to every profile released thus far, there would be no way, no way on earth that I'd bother publishing mine, clean or otherwise. Most people have made their mind up and confirmation bias reigns supreme in a place like this. Those that want to believe there is doping will look for the slightest fluctuation to pounce upon (or, if none exist, point out that a profile that is TOO consistent is also highly suspicious as one would expect differences in conditions and conditioning to yield some differences in results)... while those that want to believe there is none would seek to find justifications for any anomaly, even if things look pretty grim even to the untrained eye (take Lance's 2009 Tour levels, where if I remember correctly the hct% would decrease then jump back up after the rest days, which is something noticeable to anybody with a sense for pattern recognition even if they can't explain or don't want to use doping as an explanation). I wouldn't post my biopassport, so I don't blame you for deciding against doing it in future.

But then, I don't feel that I, as a fan, owe the cyclists belief either. I don't feel indebted to the riders out there on that front. I will choose whether or not I believe them. Dan Martin on Sunday, I am, until further notice, happy to believe. A guy who has accumulated a very good history of placements in the hilly Classics and who is still getting stronger (still pretty young but heading towards the classic 'peak years') takes advantage of being in the right move in a somewhat conservatively raced edition where he and his teammate had the advantage of numbers in the closing stages? Sounds about as believable as any hilly Classic triumph can get. I see no reason to suspect Dan Martin, either yesterday or otherwise, and he's certainly never had any performance that I've baulked at on his way to the top.

And sure, lots of people here are calling your guys into question, but if we take you on your word and Garmin is a 100% clean team as it purports to be, then the Clinic is, albeit not in the nicest of fashions, paying you one hell of a compliment.

fair enough.

 

[Pentacycle]

Well done to Dan and Garmin for delivering victory at Liege. And of course a clean victory. Its incredible what a hard work ethic, total dedication, and endless hours of hard training will bring. (20,000 odd miles of training per year) And of course talent. Superb stuff.
You must be having a right old laugh at the conspiracy theorists in the Clinic who sniff "it has to be drugs" whenever a great rider such as Dan delivers a fine victory.....

It's all down to talent and tactics. After all, Valverde, Purito, Scarponi and Betancur have done roughly the same as Martin to prepare for this race, they were great as well. Every rider, even a domestique, has a total dedication towards such season goals. I hope you're not suggesting Dan's victory was achieved by training more and harder than others?

 

[The Hitch]

And there we have it straight from the horse's mouth (if you will pardon the expression JV).

The one team who actually did release profiles have got fed up with the armchair analysts.

Not that I blame you one bit.

Wasnt it JV who said that theres only 12 people in the clinic (or something to that effect) and it really doesnt matter what anyone says here.
Of those 12, theres a couple of "armchair analysts". Is that really such a big deal in the wider context.

Thats an audience of thousands missing out for fear that a handful of people will disagree.

Anyway,if you think something is the right thing to do then you should do it. A bit of a cop out to wait for the first sign of critisism (which will always happen because the world is a big place) and use that as an excuse to take your ball and go home. (not saying thats neccesarily whats happening here).

The whole point of making a stand and doing the right thing is that its not always going to be easy. If it was, everyone would do it.

In the long run you might even get praised for sticking to your guns when all men doubted you.

And if not, well, **** it, thats not why you do it.

 

[Schwartzchov]

. After all, I hope you're not suggesting Dan's victory was achieved by training more and harder than others?

Of course not. I am not suggesting anything of the sort....

 

[Catwhoorg]

Hitch,

its not just the folks here.
Its trivial for a so called 'journalist' who wants to make a story to some data, and shop around until they find a so called "scientist" in the field who will say what they want usually for an appropriate fee.

They do it with all sorts of things, not just blood profiles.

Us back and forthing is relatively harmless. Someone in the mainstream media would be much less so.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

fair enough.

How are his allergies situation?

 

[Roude Leiw]

The Clinic's approach to investigative justice http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k3jt5ibfRzw

Brilliant !!!!

 

[DirtyWorks]

Not only was Ryder's blood data not flagged, it was put in the "negligible risk" category by the AMPU, which analyzes the data and came up with the "risk profiles" pre 2010 TdF, in which Ryder also measured low risk, with an Hb of 16 and retics in the +1 category.

No disrespect to you or this claim, or Ryder, but how are we to know your claim is true?

Armstrong was a low(ish) risk according to the often referenced TdF list and THAT guy was red-hot positive. We were supposed to believe Tyler had an ephemeral twin. We know there were positives languishing in the APMU too. The well has been poisoned.

Unfortunately, you learned the hard way, if you release something super-technical like blood profiles, you better back it up with plenty of explanation. And again, the extraordinary lies over decades don't help your honest effort at some transparency.